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Today's Message

Had an Airport run earlier today
As discussed it would be disruptive
Due for a quiet day anyway
We've done 7 unbroken in a row
16 meetings Friday and Saturday
And the Sunday message as well


3 previews tonight

Today's Best Bet

Sandown 5.55

SATISFYING 11/4-3/1

Each Way


Main problems are the price
And the weak market tonight
There are a few firms at 3/1
All the major ones are just 11/4

May just be unsuitable to stake
With 8 hours before the race
Possible non runners as well
Markets like this can go haywire
So going to leave it as a mention
On a day where I have lost time





Wednesday's Review

We came out 2nd best yesterday
Heavy schedule for a Wednesday
Which did not make it any easier
The 6 previews went L W L P L P
My best bet the each way double
I changed it late from a win single
In the end it did not matter much
Both options would have failed
Read the opening preview wrong
Hit back with a winner in the next
Cayuga looked like he would win
He was matched at 1.06 in running
In the end turned victory to defeat
Kimberella beaten only in a photo
That was quite a well staked race
Rockfish was a big disappointment
Overall just scrappy and average



FITTEST HORSES



20 Bet Trial
Current Record

P L P P L L P W L
Bet 1 Placed 2nd 10/1-6/1
Bet 2 Lost 4/5-4/7
Bet 3 Placed 2nd 5/1
Bet 4 Placed 3rd 7/2
Bet 5 Lost 2nd 2/1
Bet 6 Lost unp 6/4
Bet 7 Placed 2nd 5/1
Bet 8 Won 5/1 E/way
Bet 9 Lost 11/4 3rd
Bet 10 Lost 9/4
Bet 11 Placed 7/2
Bet 12 Lost 13/8
Bet 13 Lost 7/4

PROFILES & PREVIEWS


YARMOUTH 5.20

9/4 Snowdon, 5/2 Comporta, 7/2 Sublimation,
7/1 Sandkissed, 9/1 Greenview Paradise,
12/1 Macho Guest, 25/1 Dark Side Jazz,
25/1 General Tufto, 40/1 Slipalongtrevaskis.

Low Grade 8f Handicap

We have 5 horses aged 3
We have 4 horses aged 4 +

Older horses are slightly better
But plenty of 3 year olds did win

None though came from 6f
Horses aged 3 from 6f races
Going up 2f against older horses
Is a bit too risky for my blood

SNOWDON has this problem
Not for me as a 3yo filly from 6f
MACHO GUEST has the same problem
Hammered at 40/1 in a recent maiden
He lacks enough positives

SANDKISSED is a 3yo filly
Her Racing Post Rating of 43 last time
Needs significant improvement
As a filly with 1 run in just 210 days
Not convinced she will have enough

DARKS SIDE JAZZ has poor numbers
GENERAL TUFTO is 13 now
Down 3f he is not acceptable
SLIPALONTREVASKS is opposed
Just 1 poor run this year at 66/1
And a string of low numbers

GREENVIEW PARADISE has a chance
She has a 0-17 career record
Poor since a stable downgrade
Given she is a 4yo filly
One run in 110 days may not be enough

SUBLIMATION is an 8 year old
He has raced just once in 14 months
Not a fit enough profile

COMPORTA was a good 5th last time
It was in a far better Newmarket Handicap
Handicap debutant last time as well
Looks the most likely winner to me

Selection

COMPORTA 2/1

Win Bet





SANDOWN 5.55

11/4 Heartwarming, 4/1 Satisfying, 5/1 Vivionn,
6/1 Zalpa, 7/1 Sabai Sabai, 10/1 Kurious, Mersey,
12/1 Collect Call, 14/1 Munaajaat, 20/1 Riverwing,
20/1Time For Bed, 40/1 Superstition,
100/1 Equiano Perle.

5f Novice for 2 year old fillies

HEARTWARMING is unraced

Go back to 2011
Look at unraced horses
Running at Sandown over 5f
Only 1 horse has won first time
Unraced horses have 1-47 record
Thats a pretty low return

That winner had a low draw
HEARTWARMING is unraced drawn 10
Sandown has a stiff uphill finish
No surprise unraced horses struggle

HEARTWARMING may not get home
Looking at his pedigree it's all speed
He has to get home drawn in stall 10
That may not be an easy thing to do

5f Sandown races
Since 2011

Horses with under 2 runs
Have a 3-98 record
All 3 winners were drawn 1-2
Horses with under 2 runs
Drawn 3 or higher
Have a 0-78 record since 2011

HEARTWARMING shares this 0-78 profile
It is not as good as it sounds
But there is a curious lack of winners
That are both unraced and drawn high here

Plenty more have this problem
KURIOUS unraced drawn 7
MUNAAJAAT unraced drawn 9
VIVIONN is unraced and drifting
From his trainer likely to need it

ZALPA is a once raced filly
12 days ago she was beaten 17 lengths
That was over 6f
Thats a heavy defeat to overcome
In such a short space of time
To be fair she was a 500k purchase
She is from a top stable as well
But she fails the following statistic

June to December
All juvenile 5f races
Fillies with 1 career start
Running within 13 days
Beaten over 12.5 lengths last time
Return a 0-116 record
ZALPA shares this record
So she may be too risky

SABAI SABAI is unraced
Drawn 4 she might pop up
But you are better with experience here

Shortlist

MERSEY has 2 runs
Has enough to be shortlisted

SATISFYING is interesting
She has 2 career starts
Racing Post Rating of 77 on debut
More than reasonable for a debutant
She was then 2nd at Windsor
Looks like she ran into a better horse
One who followed up next time out

Plan A
SATISFYING each way
But we are getting 11/4-3/1

If you prefer not to do that
Then a win bet around 3/1
With a saver on MERSEY 11/1

Selection

SATISFYING 11/4-3/1

Each Way






LEOPARDSTOWN 7.55

7/4 Carlo Biraghi, 7/2 Giuseppe Garibaldi,
5/1 Burgundy Boy, Cimeara, 11/2 Dynabee,
6/1 Lucius Tiberius

Listed race over 1m 4f

GIUSEPPE GARIBALDI has positives
He won 5 days ago over 1m 5f
He is the fittest horse in the race
He has the best numbers in the race

CARLO BIRAGHI has raced once
DYNABEE has raced once

Both horse just one run
And they also have recent runs as well
Uncomfortable with their profile

It's a complicated profile
Once raced horses can win Listed race
Quite often at Chester in May

But if we look at June and later
It becomes considerably harder
When horses have recent runs

June to December
Listed and Group races
1m 3f and further
Since 2010

Horses with 1 run
Racing within 4 months
Return a 0-33 record

CARLO BIRAGHI shares this profile
DYNABEE shares this profile
Both look talented prospects
But they will do well to win this
Against a fitter Coolmore favourite

CIMEARA looks beatable
Only a 40/1 chance in her first pattern race
LUCIUS TIBERIUS has just won a maiden
Stablemate of Giuseppe Garibaldi
His best Racing Post Rating is 85
Thats well below his stablemates 100
BURGANDY BOY has to prove stamina
His sire has a stamina index of 6.4f
His sire has yet to get a winner over 10f

GIUSEPPE GARIBALDI is my choice
In the expectation his win 5 days ago
May be more than the rest can cope with

Selection

GIUSEPPE GARIBALDI 9/4-5/2

Win Bet






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


TENNIS

Simona Halep

Won her Quarter yesterday
That ends our association with her
We successfully had her in two bets
And happily she did not let us down
This bet is therefore now a winner

Womens Quarter 1
£8.50 Win Simona Halep 6/4
£1.50 Win Carline Garcia 11/2


The above bet pays for this one


WQ 1 - Simona Halep 6/4 (WON)
x
MQ 1 - Rafa Nadal 1/7
x
Ascot Gold Cup - Order Of St George 9/4
Ascot Gold Cup - Stradivarius 5/2


RAFA NADAL struggled yesterday
His game twice interrupted by rain
He lost the 1st set
He is 5-3 up in the 2nd set
The game 30-15 with Nadal serving

His performance was muted
He is about 1/7 to win this match
He looked in real trouble at times

We need him to win
If he does we get to the last leg
We then have 2 Gold Cup horses
At significantly enhanced prices

Order Of St George at 8.28/1

Straivarius at 9/1

So I can not allow Nadal to fail
It is madness not to hedge now
I have laid Nadal at 1.14-1.15
To lose the Schwartzman game

I still want him to win the match
But this is a Golden hedge bet
And very cheap to do so a 1/7 on
I'd strongly advise you do it too
Don't care about the tournament
It's the Quarter Final that matters

I'm far from certain Nadal will win
I think the Likes of Dominic Thiem
Will smell blood watching Nadal
The cracks are starting to show

Hopefully Nadal will get it done
But if the unthinkable happens
It will be a good result either way
Having laid Nadal today at 1.14


Simona Halep plays Muguruza
We don't have a dog in this fight
We can relax having got it done
This looks like a 50-50 contest

What worries me about Halep
If she starts slowly as she can
Won't be easy if she is 1-0 down
She got away with it yesterday
But Muguruza looks high class
I marginally prefer Muguruza




ROYAL ASCOT

I stopped Ascot stats a few years ago
As it takes too long to do all the races

Generic Stats

Never done any Generic Ascot Stats
Generic stats are not easy to discover
Like wine take a long time to ferment
I thought the following had potential

Royal Ascot since 2010

Horses aged 4
Running in any and every race
With over 17 runs were 0-45
No 4yo won with over 17 runs

4 year olds with over 11 runs
Had a pretty modest 5-227 record

If you ignore Group 1 races
Horses aged 4
Over 11 career starts
Have a miserable 1-169 record

Royal Ascot since 2004
Horses aged 3
Running in any and every race
Those with 11 or more runs
Have a 0-46 record since 2004
We need to oppose all 3 year olds
That had 12 or more career starts


Will try and find a few more
As we get closer to the meeting


Best Royal Ascot Sire

SCAT DADDY

15 runners
8 winners
53.33% Strike rate

Worst Royal Ascot Sires

Kheleyf 0-26
Hawk Wing 0-20
Inchinor 0-41
Azamour 0-28
Desert Prince 0-28
Fastnet Rock 0-20
Elusive City 0-20



Current Royal Ascot Portfolio

June 20th
Prince of Wales Stakes
CRACKSMAN 3/1
Each Way

Suggested several weeks ago
Currently about 5/4 for the race
He goes there as the best horse
Struggled in a hard race Epsom
How he recovers will be the key


Ascot Gold Cup
June 21st
ORDER OF ST GEORGE
STRADIVARIUS

Identified as the main selections
That was as far back as March 29th
When both were far bigger prices
Order Of St George was 7/2
Stradivarius was 7/1
Played them in a few ante post bets
This is the current bet involving them
Womens Quarter 1 - Simona Halep 6/4
Mens Quarter 1 - Rafa Nadal 1/7
Ascot Gold Cup - Order Of St George 9/4
Ascot Gold Cup - Stradivarius 5/2
2 x Win Trebles



June 22nd
Commonwealth Cup
SIOUX NATION 5/1
Each Way

No official bet
Previewed in this column
Provisional Selection
But likely to be the final one


June 23rd
Hardwicke Stakes
CRYSTAL OCEAN 9/4

Loved his profile in this race
Advised him in 2 separate bets

May 24th

Gold Cup - Order Of St George 9/4
Gold Cup - Stradivarius 5/2
Hardwicke Stakes - Crystal Ocean 2/1
2 x £2.50 Each Way Doubles

May 31st

Champions League Under 4.5 (WON)
Cracksman - Epsom (WON)

Gold Cup - Order Of St George 9/4
Gold Cup - Stradivarius 5/2

Hardwicke Stakes - Crystal Ocean 9/4
2 x Win Accumulators


That's the current portfolio
I'd like to add more Ascot races
When it becomes possible to do so
Happy enough with what we do have

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