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Highlighted Bet


Newmarket 6.00

£4 Each Way BE PROUD 13/2 - 6/1

£2 Win Bet FAST ENDEAVOUR 4/1




0 Negatives

At a shorter price
Capla Gilda 6/4 would be one
She is a False Favourite 6pm



Future Betting Angles

Champions League 2019
Atletico Madrid 14/1
£4.50 Win Bet
£0.50 Place Bet



Preview

Newmarket 6.00
£4 Each Way Be Proud 13/2
£2 Win Bet Fast Endeavour 7/2 -4/1



Todays Message


First Message for 3 days
This is a comeback message
Bound to be extremely rusty
Lots of smaller fields today
The weather is changing as well
Brighton and Newmarket
Are both now on the softer side

It is an interesting message
If a bit more chaotic than I'd like

Ante Post Football Bet
That's in Future Betting Angles

Only 1 race I wanted to endorse
That is the Newmarket 6pm

I don't see the favourite staying
There is no clear cut alternative
So compromised with two horses
That make up today's highlighted bet





NEGATIVES

None Today

Capla Gilda 6pm
Would have been a negative
Had she been 5/4 or shorter
She is now around 13/8
Will make her a false favourite
But she is a negative in all but name
Only the price stops her being one



FALSE FAVOURITES

Newmarket 6.00

Capla Gilda 6/4






Tuesday's Review

The last message was on Tuesday
We had a loser in Returning Glory
It looked like he was coming to win
But couldn't get by the front runner
Who may be more of a 10f specialist
I was expecting him to win that race
It was a disappointment that he didn't








PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Incorporating

Angles @ Observations





Musselburgh 2.10

15/8 Lady Lavinia, 5/2 Call Him Al,
4/1 My Ukulele, 9/2 Biscuit Queen,
9/1 Flash Sentry.

7f Nursery

2 Strikes against CALL HIM AL
Didn't want him coming up from 5f
But my angles tell me I am wrong
Look at the 2016 winner Ray Donovan
Who won with a very similar profile

My second strike is stamina
CALL HIM AL is far from certain to stay
His sire hasn't had a winner over this far
On balance I would oppose him

But it means a guess
LADY LAVINIA is not much
Her profile is neutral
She offers a lot I like
Such as experience and recent runs
Her numbers are reasonable in context
But not kidding myself she isn't very beatable

BISCUIT QUEEN could easily win
MY UKELELE also has a chance

One option

At 5/2 each way 1/4 the odds 2 places
LADY LAVINIA would be my choice
But she may not be that price

Another is staggered staking

£3 LADY LAVINIA 2/1
£2 BISCUIT QUEEN 4/1
£5 MY UKELELE 5/1

Haven't made a proper case
To make a bet worthwhile here
I don't like Call Him Al
But I have better negatives later
Who are shorter prices in bigger fields





Wolverhampton 2.20

7/4 Ingleby Molly, 5/1 Ahundrednotout, 13/2 Cupid's Arrow,
10/1 Counterfeit, Fantasy Justifier, Passing Star, 12/1 Black Truffle,
14/1 Monsieur Mel, Tink, 20/1 Burauq, Compton Prince,

Low Grade 6f Handicap

PASSING STAR is topweight
But as a 7yo with 1 run since February
He may not have enough to win this

Other statistical problems

Fantasy Justifier a 7yo absent 65 days
Counterfeit a 3yo absent 98 days
Monsieur Mel - 4yo from 5f with an absence
Tink is a badly drawn filly with an absence

CUPID'S ARROW has a chance
Profile is safe enough
His best runs at Catterick on soft
Limited All weather experience
Has never run 6f on sand before

BLACK TRUFFLE - Profile fine

Positives

INGLEBY MOLLY
AHUNDREDNOTOUT

If I am right about Passing Star
AHUNDREDNOTOUT then faces a 0-53
He looks good enough to win in that class
The Betting forecast now looks topsy turvy
AHUNDREDNOTOUT the clear favourite
I would have preferred an each way bet
Now it is a less appealing win and saver

£8 Win Bet AHUNDREDNOTOUT 9/4

£2 Win Bet INGLEBY MOLLY 4/1






Wolverhampton 3.20

5/2 Dress Coat, Legal History, Podemos,
6/1 Jaquar, 14/1 Harawi, 20/1 Don't Look Down,
20/1 First Call, 50/1 Bedivere, 50/1 Charlie D,
50/1 Spectaculis.

12f Novice for 3 year olds
These races are new this year
DRESS COAT is unraced
Wouldn't really want an unraced horse
In similar 12f Novices this year
There were unraced winners
But only in fields of under 7 runners
If you look at 12f Ascot races since 2011
Horses with under 3 career starts
Drawn 6 or higher have a 0-42 record
DRESS COAT fails this quirky angle too
I'd be happy about opposing him
But most of her dangers have absences

Option 1

PODEMOS 5/2 Each Way
This price has now gone

Option 2

PODEMOS 2/1-9/4 Win Bet

LEGAL HISTORY 4/1 Saver Bet





Wolverhampton 4.50

15/8 Stringybark Creek, 9/2 Celtic Artisan, 11/2 Topology,
9/1 Amelia George, Joyful Dream, 11/1 Final Attack,
11/1 Noneedtotellme, 14/1 Indiana Dawn, 25/1 Foxy's Spirit,
25/1 Outlaw Torn, 33/1 Fossa, Sea Tea Dea, Unsuspected Girl.

8f Handicap

Best backed horse - Celtic Artisan 9/2

If was playing in the race
I'd try to corner the topweights

£2.50 on Stringybark Creek 3/1
£2.00 on Topology 5/2
£5.50 on Celtic Artisan 3/1

I have no individual preference
From the above three horses
But if seen as a "Group"
I think they offer the most

Looks Clumsy
But it gets the 3 class horses onside

The rest of these are getting weight
But several have questionable profiles
And haven't run a good number in ages





Tipperary 5.05

9/4 Tenax, 4/1 Lord Rapscallion, 9/2 Backpfeifengesicht,
6/1 Sunday Scholar, 8/1 Sunset Nova, 12/1 Compton's Finale,
12/1 Jarrocho, Lady Marengo, 14/1 Don't Tell Ronan,
20/1 Cozy Sky, 25/1 Cityman, 33/1 All For Power, Frow,
50/1 Dom's Angel.

5f Maiden for 2 year olds

The Racing Post Point out
TENAX has the beating of Lord Rapscallion
On last time out Fairyhouse running
LORD RAPSCALLION didn't stay 6f last time
He has every chance of reversing that form
Complicated race because of the draw
No clear edge is obvious on draw stats
BACKPFEIFENGESICHT has a chance
Another who makes some each way appeal

Unless he drifts and smells wrong
LORD RAPSCALLION does appeal each way
On the grounds this could be his right trip
And he has experience and credible numbers





Newmarket 6.00

7/4 Capla Gilda, 4/1 Fast Endeavour, 6/1 Sharp And Sharper,
6/1 Warrior Display, 7/1 Be Proud, 10/1 My Maharani,
16/1 Too Many Lovers, 20/1 Little Tipple, 33/1 The Galla Girl,
66/1 She Came To Pass.

7f Selling Race for 2 year olds

CAPLA GILDA won over 6f last time
That surprised me as I doubted her stamina
I am surprised they are going up a furlong

Right or Wrong
Am I calling her a doubtful stayer
She has the best form in the race
I couldn't touch her over 7f
Not on rain softened ground

Here is something interesting

Horses aged 2
Sired by Compton Place
Running over 7f
Have a 26-380 record
Nothing much wrong with that

However
When it is good to soft or worse
That record becomes 0-69
That is an incredible difference
Any why this is my favourite sire
Newmarket is Good to Soft good in places
So technically he does fail this


These races are complicated
There is often a hidden hand somewhere

WARRIOR DISPLAY has just 2 runs
Hasn't done enough to interest me
SHARP AND SHARPER can't be ruled out
But can't match him from a 6f Claimer
And his numbers need improving on

BE PROUD is very hard to read
Could win this on one of his runs
But his last 3 runs were underwhelming

Last time he was behind Capla Gilda
He comes from a high class stable
One I often bet in sellers/claimers

One thing that could be significant
Two consecutive races in a row
BE PROUD has been badly drawn
I would upgrade both his last 2 runs

FAST ENDEAVOUR has positives
She looks a solid each way option
But not expensive and will have limitations

MY MAHARANI needs improvement
But she did have excuses last time

I am playing the race this way

Selection

£4 Each Way BE PROUD 11/2

£2 Win Bet FAST ENDEAVOUR 7/2





Tipperary 6.05

7/2 Alfredo Arcano, Rapid Reaction, 4/1 Amthaal,
9/2 Abstraction, 6/1 Fille Du Septembre, 10/1 Dandyman Port,
10/1 Sors.

5F Handicap

ALFREDO ARCANO is rated 90
He faces a 0-81 class field
I like that gap on official ratings

I appreciate he has just gone from 85 to 90
And this is a career high mark today

But on Racing Post Ratings
He has just done a career best run
2 of his last 3 races were career bests

I would play it this way

ALFREDO ARCANO Win Bet 5/2
AMTHAAL 4/1 Saver Bet

None of the others
Offered as much as this pair




Tipperary 7.45

7/4 Julienne, 3/1 Bright Eyed, 6/1 Madame Delavanti,
13/2 Lir, 8/1 Sketching, 10/1 Grasping At Straws,
14/1 Small Wonder, 16/1 Gentility, Loughcallow Lady,
16/1 Miss Louise, 25/1 Leavethekeysinher,
50/1 Balletto, 100/1 Sarah Kate.

Fillies Maiden over 9f

JULIENNE comes from 7f to 9f
She only has a 4 day break
She has raced just once in 10 months

That is far too radical a profile for me

LIR is unraced
Sired by Declaration Of War
Drawn 12 could also be a problem
Tipperary races over 6f and more
No unraced horse has won drawn that high

The obvious choice
BRIGHT EYED is weak in the market
5/2 in the offices
Almost 4/1 on Betfair

I'd let the market settle down
I'd prefer an each way alternative
BRIGHT EYED is one
GASPING AT STRAWS is another
She has been gambled 10/1 into 7/2

Maybe play it this way

GASPING AT STRAWS win bet
BRIGHT EYED saver bet





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Ante Post Football Bet

Champions League 2019

ATLETICO MADRID 14/1

£4.50 Win Bet
£0.50 Place Bet


We have already backed them
At 10/1 for the Spanish League

I agree with the Atletico scribe
Who wrote the La Liga narrative

The Champions League at 14/1
Is a price we should be taking

This market is 1/2 the odds 1-2
So if Atletico can get to the Final
The £0.50 Place bet returns £4
And full stakes will be refunded

He has also pointed out to me
The 2019 Champions League Final
Will be at Atletico Madrids ground
They are at home if they get there
That is a big advantage/incentive


Staying with the Football

Salford were beaten at Gateshead
That now looks a worrying start
Albeit this is still very early days
They look like they need some time
Lets hope that is not too long


Tonight

The Premier League starts

Manchester United v Leicester

I like the draw at 7/2
With a saver on Leicester 15/2
Suggested a small bet on Monday





Personal Project Betting


TARGET RACE

St Leger

Doncaster 15th September

This is now my first main target race
The St Leger is 5 weeks tomorrow

I am targeting this race from Monday
Preview coming Monday and Tuesday


Makes sense to target the St Leger
There is a lack of other suitable races

The Hungerford at Newbury on the 18th
Could be a race we do something in
But the angles in that race are confused
The Hungerford's not a race we usually do

Expert Eye is the current 5/2 favourite
Back at his ideal trip from a good trial race
But I would have doubts he may not run
This Group 2 race might not tempt them

Expert Eye for all his obvious ability
Has a 0-3 record in Group 1 races now
Surely a Group 1 win is Priority number 1
Why run 17 days after the Sussex Stakes
In a Group 2 race which doesn't help him
Many of his rivals are uncertain starters
So it is premature to look at this 7f race

What I might do with the Hungerford
Try and "Propel" some stakes from it
To land on some of the St Leger horses

Back to the St Leger

Here is a suggestion

For anyone having a few bets today
Who wants some small stake multiples


Leg 1 - Any Selection in this message

Leg 2 - Saturday Ascot 1.05 - Evergate 5/1

Leg 3 - St Leger - Wells Farhh Go 8/1
Leg 3 - St Leger - Forever Together 12/1
Leg 3 - St Leger - The Pentagon 13/1

3 x £1 Trebles


If we expand on this
Lets take one random selection


Wolverhampton 2.20 - Ahundrednotout 9/4

Lets call Ahundrednotout LEG 1

You can start 3 x £1 Trebles of with him

If Ahundrednotout loses
Move onto another race
Replace him with another Leg 1

If Ahundrednotout wins at 9/4

Then we move onto Leg 2

Saturday Ascot 1.05 - Evergate 5/1

If we get this winner tomorrow
He may or may not be my selection tomorrow
But if he were to win

Your £1 Trebles staking only £3

Would suddenly become this

£19.50 on Wells Farhh Go 8/1 returning £175.50
£19.50 on Forever Together 12/1 returning £235.50
£19.50 on The Pentagon 14/1 returning £292.50

You can repeat this process
As many times as you like

You could use tonight's Football
Any bet you fancy for LEG 1


Lets say this we get through Legs 1 + 2

Come St Leger Day

You have 3 horses for decent money
From a very small initial stake
That you forgot about weeks before

When I am in the mood
I like to have a few of these bets
Yes long losing runs occur
You have to get a bit lucky of course
But we are talking very small stakes here
And when you get a few of these click
All of a sudden a massive pay day looms
And you can then start to cover other horses

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