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Today's Message

Sunday has 3 National Hunt cards
It's extremely grim out there today
Was never going to be any choice
Covered 7 races in this message
Make the best of a miserable day

No chance of having a strong bet
Chosen a win bet as my 1 preview
But hard to endorse any one bet

Previews

Southwell 2.15

Kimberley Point 6/4

Win Bet






Saturday's Review

There were 10 races on Saturday
There were three potential bets
GOLDEN JEFFREY was an option
But as feared he was a non runner
HIGHEST POWER was the choice
He was an alternative account bet
He finished 3rd placing each way
I feel we were a bit lucky to place
Just ran on very late to finish 3rd
Whilst we did lose a couple of quid
And the bet didn't feel exceptional
It was still a very professional bet
Because opposed a 7/4 favourite
No horse like him in over 20 years
Won any 2 mile race with his profile
At 7/4 he takes out 36% of the book
It meant we had a huge advantage
And yes I had to take a little guess
But percentages were on our side
I do not mind getting partial returns
Could easily have chosen wrongly
So I am happy enough with the bet
DONNACHIES GIRL placed as well
She ran ok just pleased not to lose
We had too many bets that placed
Frodon was a very pleasing saver
Statistically his chance was awful
Rescued that bet ignoring angles
That was a good sensible decision
We had a lot of placed bets again
The message just lacked winners


PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Incorporating

Angles @ Observation



Navan 12.00

13/8 Battleoverdoyen, 3/1 Momus, 6/1 Pike County,
8/1 Polished Steel, 14/1 The Long Mile, Time Of Day,
20/1 Kilmurry, Wadiyatink Now, 25/1 Bythesametoken,
25/1 Criq Sun, 33/1 Bill Hickok, Classic Concorde,
25/1 Lough Gur, Peace Party, 66/1 Jackdaws Lane,
66/1 Melman, Robbies Magic, Rocco's Dream,
100/1 Ashton Court, Classic Escape,100/1 Pottsie,
100/1 Ricky Langford.

Maiden Hurdle

Might be a 2 horse race

Battleoverdoyen 4/6 v Monus 5/2

None of the other runners appealed
Pike Countrys sire puts me off
The betting is probably about right

BATTLEOVERDOYEN is very short
He has never raced over hurdles
I would not bet him at odds on

MONUS has 3 hurdle races
Decent enough figures I suppose
The main issue here is how to play it
Should he be an each way bet at 5/2
Monus each way is a definite option
But not a bet I would feel safe giving

BATTLEOVERDOYEN was expensive
The market suggests he is expected
I think they should finish 1st and 2nd
The favourite will probably be 1st
But not much I can do with him at 4/6
MONUS each way is only a small bet

Selection

MONUS 5/2

Each Way




Navan 12.30

7/2 Defi Bleu, 4/1 Easy Game, 5/1 Rhinestone,
6/1 Magnium, Monbeg Worldwide, 7/1 Choungaya,
10/1 Getareason, Satoshi, 12/1 Western Victory.

Grade 2 Novice Hurdle 2m 4f

Some smart novices here
Not easy to separate these
I can find 2 possible angles

12 past renewals
Almost all previous winners
Had 1 or 2 previous hurdle runs
If you ignore French juvenile form
They all had under 3 hurdle runs

Horses with 3 or more hurdle runs
Produce a 0-16 record in this race
That may all change this season
But so far none were experienced

We have had 2 French winners
But the vast majority of past winners
Shared the following horses

Male Horses aged 5 or 6
Coming from a Maiden Hurdle
Under 3 previous hurdle starts
Winning last time out
Horses with this profile are 7-15
RHINESTONE has this 7-15 profile

None of the past 12 winners
Came from non graded Novice Hurdles
Maiden hurdle winners dominated

MONBEG WORLDWIDE has this problem
He comes from a Novice and none have
SATOSHI his stablemate does as well

GETAREASON drops from 3 miles
None of the past winners did that
He was well beaten in that race too
The last 9 winners all won last time out
Don't want a horse well beaten over 3m
CHOUNGAYA was also beaten last time
Looks a bit exposed to be suitable
MAGNIUM should have a chance
But he has 4 hurdle runs now
Two more than any past winner
He was beaten in 3 of those races
Including last time out as well
He is not matchable to any winner

DEFI BLUE is shortlistable
EASY GAME could easily win too
But 7 past winners have won this race
Coming from Maiden Hurdles
RHINESTONE is clearly the best match

Selection

RHINESTONE 3/1 +

Each Way




Navan 1.00

6/1 Calie Du Mesnil, Dinaria Des Obeaux,
8/1 Walk To Freedom, 10/1 Ball D'Arc, Rooster Byron,
Salty Boy, 14/1 De Plotting Shed, 14/1 Dromore Lad,
16/1 Orion D'Aubrelle, Squouateur, 16/1 Plinth,
20/1 Jack Fiasco, Law Girl, Mastermind, Russian Bill,
20/1 Stooshie, 25/1 Cliff House, 25/1 Conright Boy,
25/1 Elusive Theatre, Forever Gold, Golden Jewel,
33/1 Roseriver Has.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f
Big field and looks repulsive

This race changed 5 years ago
It became a handicap back in 2013
Since then all 5 of the winners
Shared the following profile

Horses aged 5-6-7
Running within 6 weeks
7-14 Previous Hurdle runs
At least 7 lifetime starts
Carrying under 11st weight
Beaten under 11 lengths last time
Coming from a handicap
Horses with the above profile
Have a smart 5-18 record in this

Probably wont happen again
But interesting all 5 winners shared it
There are 2 horses that do this today
Now that Rooster Booster doesn't run

STOOSHIE 20/1
SQUOUATEUR 16/1

With 4 places available
And an impossible looking field
Maybe the best staking strategy
Should be the split stake each way
One option might be this

Small Stakes

£2.50 Each Way SQUOUATEUR 14/1

£2.50 Each Way STOOSHIE 20/1






Navan 1.30

6/4 Diamond Turf, 2/1 Denwork, 11/1 Captain Cj,
12/1 Cap York, Largy Glory, 14/1 The Dabbler,
16/1 Mad Carew, 33/1 Whydah, 40/1 The Sneaky Punter,
66/1 Incredible Black.

Maiden Hurdle over 2m 7f

The 2 shortest priced horses
Both have positive profiles

DIAMOND TURF - 1 Hurdle run
DENWORK - 3 Hurdle runs

Not so sure about the others
Maiden Hurdles over 2m 3f or more
Run at any time of year since 2007
Show all fillies aged 4
Absent more than 73 days
Have a 0-59 record
LARGE GLORY has this problem
She is a 4yo filly absent 235 days

CAPTAIN CJ is a 7yo
Seasonal debutant with bumper form
Not much inviting about this profile

I'd prefer the market leaders
DIAMOND TURF has every chance
DENWORK has more experience
Similar 5 year olds
With 3 hurdle starts
Running within 35 days
Returned a 4-8 record
That angle and these prices
Would push me towards this bet

Selection

DENWORK 5/2 +

Each Way






Southwell 2.15

6/4 Kimberley Point, 11/4 Darlyn,
7/2 Canny Style, 4/1 Birch Vale.

Mares Handicap Hurdle

KIMBERLEY POINT is topweight
Comes from the best stable
She is a horse rated 123
Who faces only 3 opponents
Who are rated just 110 110 and 99
She may be able to outclass these

DARLYN gets a lot of weight
And she did win last time out
Understandable she is fancied
But she is not the biggest of horses
I would rather side with a classier type
KIMBERLEY POINT despite her weight
Would be my choice to win a soft race

Selection

KIMBERLEY POINT 6/4

Win Bet




Southwell 2.50

Evs Monbeg Zena, 11/4 Executive Capilano,
4/1 Berboru, 14/1 Indian Opera, Oriental Cross,
33/1 Bene Regina.

Mares Maiden Hurdle over 3m

MONBEG ZENA is an unraced 6 year old
Trading around 4/5 on Betfair

Mares Maiden Hurdles
2m 5f or more
Run since 2004
Any time of year
92 of these races

Unraced horses
Aged 6 or more
Have a 0-44 record

None have won
MONBEG ZENA tries to be the first
Not many that lost were not fancied
This is also a small field as well
And he could and may well win
But I can't bet her at odds on

The other 2 realistic options
BERBORU
EXECUTIVE CAPILANO
Hardly set the pulse racing

BERBORU has achieved most
But she was 100/1 in her last race
EXECUTIVE CAPILANO started 8/1
And she is the bigger priced horse

Not sure we are safe here
So staking it with safety in mind

Selection

£4 Each Way EXECUTIVE CAPILANO 11/2 +

£2 Saver Bet BERBORU 7/2






Carlisle 3.30

6/4 Rosie And Millie, 13/8 Shocona's Joy,
9/2 Rising Blush, 6/1 Stainsby Girl.

2m 1f Mares Bumper

Over this distance
At this track on this ground
I'd rather avoid unraced 4yo's

November and December
Similar mares bumpers
Run on soft ground
Unraced 4yo fillies
Have a weak 1-476 record

Only winner was Redhotfillypeppers
Who was a Willie Mullins horse
Nothing like that likely here

SHOCONA'S JOY is an unraced 4yo
STAINSBY GIRL is an unraced 4yo

That angle is pretty worthless
In a 4 runner race to be honest
The Racing Post make the case
That SHOCONA'S JOY in 2 points
"Showed some promise"
Why then did she cost just £7000
When people pay stupid money
For similar types of 4 year olds

With RISING BLUSH also unraced
And a Racing Club horse as well
I would rather bet with experience

ROSIE AND MILLIE is a 5yo
She has 2 previous bumper runs
Racing Post Ratings 102 + 103
That seems reasonable enough
She looks the sensible choice

Selection

Small Stakes

ROSIE AND MILLIE 11/8

Win Bet





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Christmas Messages

Messages Planned All week

Monday 17th
Tuesday 18th
Wednesday 19th
Thursday 20th
Friday 21st
Saturday 22nd

Sunday 23rd - No Racing
Monday 24th - No Racing
Tuesday 25th - No Racing

Wednesday 26th - Boxing Day cards
Thursday 27th - Welsh Grand National

Racing closes down on Saturday
Decided to do messages all week

Thursday's message will be short
Got relatives coming Wednesday
So will have to start that one later
Other than that it is full coverage



Liverpool v Man Utd

4pm Today

Like many Manchester United fans
I'm expecting Liverpool to win this
Most scribes are writing the same
I can't find anyone who disagrees
United no longer at the top table
I never get upset about Football
I've found some comfort elsewhere
Nestling in the Salford City bosom
I also quite often bet against United
Going to bet Liverpool to win today
My football man thinks they will win
He is a big Burton Albion supporter
He fancies Middlesborough to win
When they play on Tuesday evening
In the League Cup quarter final tie
The win Double pays just over 11/10

Win Double

Liverpool 8/15 to beat Man Utd

Middlesborugh 2/5 v Burton (Tuesday)



All I want for Christmas this year
Singapore Billionaire Peter Lim
Man United & Salford Shareholder
To buy Leyton Orient's best player
Clearing the way for Salford to win

On a much more realistic note
I will take a Welsh National winner

There is also an Ascot race Saturday
That we should to look at it tomorrow


Starting work on this tomorrow
This handicap is run next Saturday

Saturday December 22nd

Ascot 3.35pm

Betfair Exchange Trophy

Handicap Hurdle

7/1 Hunters Call 10/1 Fidux 10/1 Crooks Peak
10/1 Nietzsche 10/1 Mr Antolini 10/1 Jolly's Cracked It
12/1 Mont des Avaloirs 12/1 Lisp 12/1 Western Ryder
12/1 Silver Streak 14/1 Fiesole 14/1 Tornado Watch
14/1 Grand Sancy 14/1 Flying Tiger 16/1 Cyrus Darius
16/1 Countister 16/1 Call Me Lord 16/1 Man of Plenty
16/1 Brain Power 16/1 Redicean 20/1 Ratoute Yutty
20/1 Old Guard 20/1 Not Never 20/1 William H Bonney
20/1 Chatez 20/1 Mohaayed 20/1 Charli Parcs 20/1 Malaya
20/1 Marracudja 20/1 Lord Napier 20/1 A Hare Breath
20/1 Garo de Juilley 20/1 We Have A Dream 20/1 Forecast
25/1 Court Royale 25/1 Cliffs of Dover 25/1 Apple's Shakira
25/1 Thistimenextyear 25/1 First Figaro 33/1 John Constable
33/1 Friday Night Light 33/1 Tara Dylan

42 horses entered in this race
This is a very sortable handicap
Well worth spending time on this
Will be covering this tomorrow

BRAIN POWER won this in 2016

He was very impressive yesterday
Now 25/1 to win the Champion Hurdle
Impeccable connections and sire
I would not rule him out of winning

When he won the above Ascot race
Which he did easily with a big weight
Went straight to the 2017 Champion

Started 13/2 to beat Buveau D'Air
Statistically wrong with 87 days off
The previous 28 winners ran sooner
He was also coming from a handicap
He finished a long way back that year

If Cheltenham avoids soft ground
He will be one of the big players
Saturday should be a career best
When his numbers come through

Nothing much else to report

Borussia Dortmund + Munich won
Atletico Madrid also won in Spain
No big football changes to report

Michael Van Gerwin also won too
Safely negotiated an early round
The hostility has already started
Someone through a pint over him
Will no doubt have to cope with more
Not going to sweat about the darts
Quarter Finals are not until Dec 29th
Will hopefully get interested then

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