3 Previews

0 Account Bet

Newmarket open their season
It is good to soft and drying out
The weather has now improved
Should get faster ground soon
Today's message is a bit unusual
Designed to address a problem
No Account Bet today





Today's Message

This is the 7th message in a row
No opportunity to break right now
By the time we arrive at Saturday
We will have done 11 days in a row
So I'm trying to address this today

There will be a backlog very soon
With the Scottish National to come

So last night I made a decision
I knew Newmarket offered little
Decided to do the Scottish National
And complete the preview in full
Today I am sending the statistics

The Scottish Grand National Preview
Comes in two parts
Part 1 will be sent tomorrow
Part 2 will be sent on Thursday

So when Thursdays Decs are out
We will have done the race in full
Friday/Saturday we can stake it
And this will free up several hours
Which can be used for the weekend
Backing off today helps the weekend

Today's Racing Analysis
Has to take a back seat today
As I only started it this morning
Wanting to finish the Scottish National
Part 2 of which will be tomorrow

There are 3 Previews

No highlighted horses

A day for small interest bets

We can get back to normal tomorrow
Much fresher with the National done
And much more time for later week






Monday's Review

Things didn't go as planned yesterday
The opening preview was speculative
Brendan Brackan finished in 4th place
I decided to go for a bet on PINCHECK
The omens were wrong from the start
Just 10 minutes after I sent the message
A non runner reduced the field of seven
I wouldn't have staked him if I knew that
He made the running and got swamped
Initial thoughts was the pace did for him
He seemed to set this slow early gallop
Setting the race up for hold up horses
It was either that or he just disappointed.



PROFILES & PREVIEWS



NEWMARKET 1.50

15/8 Aurum, 11/4 Elhafei, 13/2 Ballyquin,
7/1 Prevent, 8/1 Robsdelight, 10/1 Ibraz,
14/1 Epaulement, 16/1 Tilghman, 25/1 Bawaasil,
25/1 Mankind, 66/1 Atalanta's Boy, 100/1 Busby,
100/1 Pesky Wabbitt.

Alex Scott Maiden over 7f

This always takes a guess
But offers interesting issues
ELHAFEI is drawn 13 of 13
Past results suggest thats a problem
I could not bet him drawn out wide

Some of these have unsafe sires
When you facor in 7f on softer ground
And horses having long absences
AURUN is sired by Exceed And Excel
The sires runners are 1-41 racing at 7f+
If facing an absence and softer ground
AURUN 's sire stats are pretty average
BALYQUIN is sired by Acclamation
Another sire I'd try and avoid in this
ROBSDELIGHT is an option on paper
But his trainer does put me off a bit
As does his price of 66/1 in his last run
This feels like a split stake bet
AURUM should have enough to place
PRESENT should have some ability
That is my guess in a race to guess

Selection

£4 Win Bet PRESENT 8/1

£6 Place Bet AURUM 4/6





EXETER 2.00

15/8 King Calvin, 5/2 Master Tommytucker,
3/1 Applesolutely, 8/1 Hunt Politics, 10/1 Benechenko,
20/1 Bean Liath, 50/1 Ericas Lad,
50/1 Dawn's Little Lady

Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

132 King Calvin
130 Applesolutely
128 Applesolutely
128 Master Tommytucker
124 Applesolutely
115 King Calvin
114 Benechenko
110 Hunt Politics

KING CALVIN has 2 hurdle runs
Has the best number in the race
APPLESOLUTELY has 4 hurdle runs
More experience and right up there

Neither horse has set the kind of standard
That would be impossible to beat
But they do have an edge in experience

MASTER TOMMUTUCKER is 11/10 favourite
Should he really be that short
Having raced only once in his life
Taking on more experienced horses
Who have better numbers
This statistic may answer that question

Novice Hurdles in April
Run over 2m 2f and more
Horses aged 7 +
1 career start
Return a 0-50 record
MASTER TOMMUTUCKER fails this
He shares the above 0-50 profile

March April May
Since 2009
Male horses
Aged 7 or more
1 career start
Running within 6 months
Return a 0-76 record
MASTER TOMMUTUCKER fails this

These angles are quite clear
MASTER TOMMUTUCKER may be unsafe
We are being pushed towards others
Who have more experience

Shortlist

KING CALVIN 11/4
APPLESOLUTELY 7/2

Different types
Different Attributes
I could go each way
Or win bet with savers
I prefer the each way option
It allows me some protection
Master Tommytucker is "all the rage"
Allows me to be wrong about him
And not necessarily have to lose

Selection

APPLESOLUTELY 11/4

Each Way

The alternative option
Would be a win bet
With a saver on King Calvin
But the official bet is each way






FAIRYHOUSE 4.40

7/4 Saglawy, 3/1 Saldier, 5/1 Mitchouka,
13/2 Msassa, 10/1 Veneer Of Charm,
14/1 Eoline Jolie, 20/1 Percy.


Graded Hurdle for 4 year olds

The biggest 2 stables
Provide all 7 runners
Surely that can't be good

GORDON ELLIOT
Mitchouka - Veneer Of Charm - Percy

WILLIE MULLINS
Saglawy -Saldier - Msassa - Eoline Jolie

I'd prefer the experienced horses
You can win this with lightly raced horses
But recent winners had 15 5 6 12 12 2 runs
And they do tend to perform the best

EOLINE JOLIE has 1 lifetime start
MSASSA only has 2 runs
I don't see that being enough
PERCY does not offer enough
On Numbers and pedigree
This looks a 3 horse race

SAGLAWY
SALDIER
MITCHOUKA

SAGLAWY and SALDIER
Have very similar profiles
In terms of fitness/experience
I could not split them
I wanted one of them as a saver
As I prefer a bigger priced option
And it was affordable with 7 runners
SALDIER looks the best saver

MITCHOUKA looks the bet
He Pulled up in the Fred Winter
But he was badly hampered there

Horses from Cheltenham
Via the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle
Won this race in 2014 2015 2017
None tried to win in 2016
They invariably take this race
It is the best trial race for this
Also worth considering as well
MITCHOUKA had topweight last time
Has to be smart to have faced that

Selection

£7.50 MITCHOUKA 4/1

£2.50 SALDIER 7/2





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Scottish Grand National Statistics
Tomorrow Part 1 of the preview
Thursday Part 2 of the preview


Ante Post Statistics

Saturday

April 21st

Ayr 4.05pm


Scottish Grand National

Vicente 10/1 Folsom Blue 12/1 Ballyoptic 14/1
Vintage Clouds 14/1 Doing Fine 16/1 Fagan 16/1
Henri Parry Morgan 16/1 Sizing Tennessee 16/1
Beware The Bear 20/1 Daklondike 20/1 Cogry 25/1
Alvarado 25/1 Glencairn View 25/1 Gold Present 25/1
Guitar Pete 25/1 Looking Well 25/1 Regal Flow 25/1
The Dutchman 25/1 Alzammaar 33/1 Benbens 33/1
Get On The Yager 33/1 Indy Five 33/1 Joe Farrell 33/1
Label des Obeaux 33/1 Lovely Job 33/1 Mysteree 33/1
Rathlin Rose 33/1 Silsol 33/1 West Approach 33/1
Sizing Codelco 33/1 The Young Master 33/1
Boa Island 50/1 Dawson City , Fact of The Matter 50/1
Pearl Swan 50/1 Rogue Angel 50/1 Straidnahanna 50/1
What Happens Now 50/1 Work Du Breteau 50/1
Fine Rightly 66/1 Portrait King, Racing Europe 66/1
Ascot de Bruyere 100/1

Previous Scottish National winners
Had the following Chase runs
13 7 22 10 6 18 4 10 16 13
10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10

Previous Scottish National winners
Had the following runs that season
5 5 5 3 6 5 3 3 5 4 4
5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
They all had at least 3 runs that year
And no more than 7 runs that season

Handicap Chases since 2005
Run over 3m 5f and more
Class 2 or higher
11 or more runners
Show horses aged 12 or more
Have a miserable 1-165 record
I'd avoid horses aged 12 +

Graded Handicap Chases
Run since 2014
3m 4f or more
10 or more runners
35 of these races
31 of the 35 winners
Had under 20 Chase runs
Those with 20 + Chase runs
Had a 4-142 record
Those absent over 32 days were 0-68
Those with 10st 12lbs or more were 0-67

Horses aged 6
Have a 0-16 record since 1997
Horses aged 7
Have won 4 renewals since 1984
They were absent 44 38 84 31 days
They won from ratings of 146 137 139 137
They had 7 6 14 6 Chase runs
None won with under 6 Chase runs
Go back as far as the 1950 renewal
No 7yo won this with more than 11st 3bs
No 7yo has won rated 147 or more
None won when the ground was soft

Previous 8yo winners
Had 24 33 21 15 24 19 25 17 lifetime runs
Had 13 10 6 14 5 9 10 Chase runs

Horses coming from Cheltenham
Who Ran in a Handicap Chase
Had a 0-59 record in this race since 1999
No Cheltenham festival winner
Has followed up in this in 32 years

19 of the last 21 winners
Ran within the previous 57 days

Last years winner bucked a trend
Having fallen at the first in the National
You have to go back to 1987
For the last to win from the Grand National

None horse with 11st 3lbs +
Has won this absent over 6 weeks

Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 1-121

12 of the last 13 winners
Had 2 or 3 runs since New Years Day

Horses rated 151 or more
Have a 0-18 record in this race

17 of the last 20 winners
Came from Class 2-3 races
Rather than listed or graded races

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