5 Previews
0 Account Bet


Not the day to return to the account
None of the 5 previews excite much
One at York and the other 4 tonight
I don't rate this message very highly
My best bet may be an ante post bet
Future Betting Angles covers all this
Any business today just lower stakes



Today's Message

Difficult set of fixtures today
I've done a token York Handicap
Otherwise that is a ferocious card
Lots of areas I don't want to go today
Fontwell is purely Hunter Chases
Perth has unwelcoming handicaps
Salisbury have changed their card
Dropped a few races I normally do
Swapped them for novice events
So seeking refuge at Clonmel tonight

My best bet is the Ante Post Bet
The only bet I am having today

The Clonmel previews tonight
Will look different in a few hours
Playing some bigger prices there
So more hopeful than confident
Found this a frustrating message
But some cards just look toxic


Today's Best Bet

Ante Post Bet

Each Way Double


York 3.30 Friday - Stradivarius 11/10
x
Epsom Oaks - Lah Ti Dar 5/2


Each Way Double

Tomorrow is the Yorkshire Oaks
Stradivarius is the first leg of this bet
The bet will hopefully lead to the Oaks
With Lah To Dar running on June 1st






Tuesday's Review

Sadly nothing back from yesterday
No real surprise in a couple of races
The York sprint was a speculative race
Highgarden could finish just 4th place
Making the running didn't seem to suit
I was more optimistic with the Bath races
Close in the 5.20pm but just touched off
I thought Francophillia was the best bet
Nearly won as well but ran down late
Long way for a filly to make the running
Especially as a once raced one as well
She traded long odds on but was caught
The fractions were just not right enough
Despite a low key day still disappointing


FITTEST HORSES

None Today

Haven't had the chance to look properly

Current Record
P L P P L
Bet 1 Placed 2nd 10/1-6/1
Bet 2 Lost 4/5-4/7
Bet 3 Placed 2nd 5/1
Bet 4 Placed 3rd 7/2
Bet 5 Lost 2nd 2/1



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


YORK 2.20

6/1 Major Jumbo, 8/1 Copper Knight, Poyle Vinnie,
10/1 Edward Lewis, El Astronaute, Sheepscar Lad,
12/1 Desert Law, East Street Revue, Line Of Reason,
14/1 Gracious John, Holmeswood, Royal Brave,
16/1 Excessable, 20/1 Carlton Frankie, Pipers Note,
25/1 Dark Shot, George Dryden, Orient Class, Rosina.

Class 2 Handicap over 5f
10 past renewals of this race
37 similar races at this time of year

5f races at York since 2011
Horses drawn 17 or more are 0-88
None have won any 5f race in years
GRACIOUS JOHN is rejected drawn 19
GEORGE DRYDEN is rejected drawn 18

MAJOR JUMBO also has a bad draw
He is a 4yo and drawn 17
We know none won drawn 17 + since 2011

Since 2015
5f races at York
10 or more runners
There are 40 of these races

Horses drawn 11 or lower are 39-427
Horses drawn 12 or higher are 1-152

Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn 11 or higher have a 0-106 record
High Drawn horses look very unsafe
MAJOR JUMBO who shares this problem
Might not be the best age anyway

Look at the age record in this race

Horses aged 4 are 1-32
Horses aged 5 are 0-40
Horses aged 6-7-8-9 are 9-77
Horses aged 4 or 5
Have a 1-72 record in 10 renewals
Older horses dominate

ROSINA is out as a 5yo mare drawn 16
We know horses aged 4
That are drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-89 record in recent years
HOLMESWOOD has this problem
CARLTON FRANKIE is a 4yo filly
First time out happy to look elsewhere
ORIENT CLASS has a nasty absence
Never won off his mark or in this class

LINE OF REASON is an 8yo absent 47 days
Horses aged 8 + absent 29 + days are 0-26

Class 2 Handicaps in May
2 miles and shorter
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 32 days
Have a miserable 1-118 record
LINE OF REASON is not safe enough
DESERT LAW is a 10 year old
Thats a bit too old for a Class 2 race
EXCESSIBLE is rejected first time out
DARK SHOT is also a seasonal debutant
He has downgraded yards and is badly drawn
EAST STREET REVUE is also out first time out

COPPER KNIGHT is a 4 year old
Seasonal debutants aged 4 are fine
But none won from a mark of over 92
COPPER KNIGHT is rated 96
His trainers seasonal debut record is weak
Tim Easterby's 4 year olds
Class 2 or higher
Any time of year
Any Distance
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-35 record since 1997

SHEEPSCAR LAD is a 4yo
He has run once this year and won
Average profile but can't rule him out
He has never won off his current rating
He has never raced in the class before
And 4 year olds struggle in this race

ROYAL BRAVE has positives
Older exposed types with recent runs do well
He is up in class today
But his numbers give him a small chance

PIPERS NOTE is an 8yo down in trip
Can't rule him out but a few niggles
I'd have preferred a better last run
And a more recent run as well
But he does have some excuses
Found the ground too soft last time
His Kempton run as a falsely run race
But his draw is not in the ideal range

POYLE VINNIE is an 8yo
He is respected with a recent run
He is also very well handicapped
But Stall 14 is not a helpful draw

Shortlist

EDWARD LEWIS is a 5yo
Horses aged 5 are 0-40 in this race
I've looked at the 5yo issue
As log as you have good recent runs
Then there is no problem with them
EDWARD LEWIS is well draw
But he 0-9 when racing in this class
And has never won off his current rating
That said I can match him to a winner elsewhere

EL ASTRONAUTE is a 5yo
Although none have won this race
He is well drawn with recent runs
Ran well at Chester from a bad draw
A race thats twice provided this winner

Selection

£4.50 Each Way EL ASTRONAUTE 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet EDWARD LEWIS 10/1




CLONMEL 5.20

4/1 Miss Echrad, 5/1 Blondes No More, 6/1 Chesterfield Queen,
6/1 Absentee, Granny Maura, 8/1 Cailean's Angel, Lady Of The Sea,
10/1 Krisdenoel, 16/1 Jeremys Hope, 20/1 Cock A Doodle Doo,
20/1 Focus Well, 25/1 Our Bonus.

Mares Maiden hurdle over 2m
These are a poor standard

MISS ECHRAD sets the standard
She has the best hurdle numbers
She has the most experience

I think the problem she has had
Her last 6 runs have been on heavy
She gets a chance to run on faster ground
If that suits her as I think her pedigree hints
Then she could finally get her conditions

ABSENTEE is out from a recent bumper
Didn't think she has achieved enough
GRANNY MAURA has a rejectable profile

Several seasonal debutants take her on
They sometimes win but don't score well
They have a 5-127 record in similar races
Those absent more than 6 months were 1-92
BLONDES NO MORE has this problem
She could easily pop up in a bad race
But she would be a risk and few like her did
There are 6 horses with long absences
I can't rule them out especially with 6 trying
But you are generally better off with recent runs
I'd rather take MISS ECHRAD with experience
In the anticipation this ground will improve her
Than rely on long absent horses with low numbers
And whilst one could pop up and beat her
I'd like to think she'd have enough to place

Selection

MISS ECHRAD 5/2

Each Way




CLONMEL 5.55

2/1 Percy, 4/1 The Granson, 9/2 Force Of Forces,
11/2 Visioman, 6/1 R'evelyn Pleasure, 12/1 Imperial Way,
Love And Wishes, 20/1 Leap Dearg.

2m Novice Hurdle

One of two have strange unsafe profiles

This is a 2 mile race
THE GRANSON drops from 2m 3f
That was only 6 days ago
The only horses winning with this profile
Are horses who win or nearly win last time

Novice Hurdles over 2 miles
Any time of year
Horses from 2m 3f or more
Running in the last 7 days
Beaten over 3 lengths last time
Return a 0-54 record
This is at any time of year
THE GRANSON fails this 0-54 profile
IMPERIAL WAY also fails this angle

FORCE OF FORCES has a similar problem
Novice Hurdles over 2 miles
Any time of year
Horses aged 5
Coming from 2m 4f or more
Running in the last 2 weeks
Return a 0-99 record all year round
FORCE OF FORCES shares this 0-99 profile
LEAP DEARG is a regressive 10 year old
Who is better known as a chaser

VISIOMAN is interesting
Good 2nd in a Handicap Hurdle last time
Racing Post Rating of 120
Tells me he has the ability to win this

Horses aged 5
Coming from Handicap Hurdles
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Had an excellent 7-18 record
VISIOMAN shares this basic profile
But the 7 winners had at least 5-6 runs
VISIOMAN only has 4 runs
Wonder of that may count against him
When having just 1 run in the last 116 days

PERCY has a chance
He is only a flat bred 4 year old
Gordon Elliot's stableform another doubt
This is his first runner in 13 days
Rumours sweeping around about a virus
These situations are unreadable
He wouldn't be running him
If he felt he had been affected
With all eyes on his this horse will run
And he was a smart flat horse as well

R'EVELYN PLEASURE has a chance
Well beaten on heavy ground last time
Big player on his Clonmel win
But He is not the biggest of horses

LOVE AND WISHES does have chance
Has never raced on this ground before
No reason why that shouldn't suit him
He only needs to improve a little but
He's been shaping reasonably well
Looked after on heavy two runs ago
Ran far better than his figures suggest
His last run was fine just 6 days ago
I am going to take a chance on him

Selection

LOVE AND WISHES 12/1-14/1

Each Way




CLONMEL 7.05

7/4 Last Minute Man, 100/30 Giant Spirit,
5/1 Plan Of Attack, 6/1 Amschel, 12/1 Lord In Red,
12/1 Madison To Monroe, 14/1 Smitty Bacall,
16/1 Punches Cross, 20/1 Dix De Der, 25/1 All For Nothing,
25/1 Scorpion Knight, The Long Mile, 33/1 Holy Moses,
50/1 Fethard Flyer, Sheldon Cooper, 66/1 Hyman Roth,
100/1 Class Pa, Redwood Castle.

Maiden Hurdle over 2m 3f

Could be a match
Gordon Elliot v Willie Mullins

GIANT SPIRIT is Willie Mullins
LAST MINUTE MAN is Gordon Elliot

AMSCHEL could play a hand
But he is a 4yo with just 1 lifetime start
That was only 17 days ago

Maiden hurdles
April June May
2m 1f and more
4 year olds
1 lifetime start
Running in the last month
Have a 0-32 record over these months
He may pop up if his main rivals
Have any flaws that can be exposed
But his general profile is not safe

GIANT SPIRIT has a obvious chance
The main problem with his profile
He has 10 hurdle runs and 86 days off

April May June
Maiden Hurdles over any distance
Horses aged 6 or older
Over 7 hurdle runs
Absent more than 53 days
Return a 0-71 record in these races
Many of course were outsiders
But still not matchable to a winner

PLAN OF ATTACK needs to improve
If he does and others don't perform
That would give him an each way chance

LAST MINUTE MAN has the best profile
There are some doubts about his stable
On the positive side that helps the price
He will only run horses that are healthy
And he will want to finish the rumours off
I am not too worried about his stable

Selection

LAST MINUTE MAN 9/4

Win Bet




CLONMEL 8.15

9/2 Cottonvale, 11/2 Dundeedy Lad, 13/2 Baily Sunset,
8/1 Moll Dote, 10/1 Our Pocket Rocket, Stoughan Cross,
12/1 Rock On Barney, 14/1 Kiera Royale, Something Sweet,
16/1 Cantkidakidder, Wild Desire, 18/1 Sillogue Pio,
20/1 High Frontier, Oromo, Shantou Sisu, 33/1 Glasson Lad,
33/1 Mileys Dream, 50/1 Redwood Boy.

Handicap Hurdle around 2m 4f

It would take a month of sundays
To dissect the form of all these runners
But we can assume a lot of dead wood
And we do have 4 places available

COTTONVALE made a lot of appeal
He ran well 7 days ago
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
He comes here with 104 104 ratings

None of his rivals can match that
None who raced in the last few months
Managed a rating of 96 or more
So my first thoughts here
Given that he hasa very recent run
Was COTTONVALE each way at 4/1
With 4 places providing a lot of cover

He isn't the biggest of horses though
The stable is quiet and he has plenty of weight
And I found a horse I preferred a bit more
So decided to make COTTONVALE a saver

BAILY SUNSET also has a recent run
He was out of form in the doldrums last year
But switched stables not so long on
He is in far better form now
I like his run 10 days ago
When he was staying on well over 2m
This extra distance will suit him
His profile is fine as well
If he steps forward again should go well

Selection

£4 Each Way BAILY SUNSET 8/1

£2 Saver Bet COTTONVALE 4/1





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



Europa League

Atletico Madrid won last night
Sucessful climax to a good bet
A bet that ran for over 3 months
Plenty of enjoyment from that
I personally like to save stakes
I have no regrets about saving
Now we can put that bet to bed
And try to come up with another




Yorkshire Cup Friday

STRADIVARIUS 11/10

Epsom Oaks June 1st

LAH TI DAR 5/2

Each Way Double




Yesterdays Column
Made the case for this bet

Epsom Oaks - Lah Ti Dar 5/2 +
Ascot Gold Cup - Stradivarius 5/1
Ascot Gold Cup - Order Of St George 5/2 +
2 X £2.50 Each Way Double


STRADIVARIUS is in the above bet
Hopefully runs in the Ascot Gold Cup

But also runs tomorrow
In the Yorkshire Cup

Friday 17th March

York 3.30
Yorkshire Cup

11/10 Stradivarius, 5/1 Max Dynamite,
11/2 Desert Skyline, 10/1 Count Octave,
11/1 On To Victory, 14/1 Wicklow Brave,
14/1 Call To Mind, 25/1 Clever Cookie

STRADIVARIUS is 11/10 tomorrow

There are 8 runners
Including a few beatable horses

STRADIVARIUS is a Gold Cup horse
It would be really disappointing
If he couldn't beat the older horses
Clever Cookie is now a 10yo
Wicklow Brace is 9 coming from hurdles
No horse aged 9 or more
Has ever won the Yorkshire Cup
Max Dynamite is an 8 year old
Last seen pulling up over hurdles

STRADIVARIUS was 3rd in the St Leger
So was the 2015 winner also a 4yo
He is a Group 1 winner
He escapes a penalty for that win

STRADIVARIUS has a plan this year
This has been well documented

If he wins the Yorkshire Cup tomorrow

He'd be in line for the £1million bonus
For winning the following 3 races
Ascot Gold Cup
Goodwood Cup
Lonsdale Cup

He is 2nd favourite in the Gold Cup
He won the Goodwood Cup last year
So it is realistic if he wins this race

He has to win it to qualify
Which tells us this is a target race
He should be pretty close to full fitness

Which is why
I see this as a good bet

Yorkshire Cup Friday - STRADIVARIUS 11/10

Epsom Oaks June 1st - LAH TI DAR 5/2

Each Way Double

Should be hard for either to finish unplaced
And if the bet is landed and both win
You have a decent winning bet
With the bonus of knowing yesterdays bet
Also starts winner a winner
Heading to the Ascot Gold Cup

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