7 Previews
1 Account Bet

4 Meetings today
2 English on the flat
2 Irish meetings
Calmer day than Saturday




Account Bet

Cork 5.20

£3.75 Each Way LE VAGABOND 9/1

£1.25 Win Bet APPARITION 7/1

£1.25 Win Bet CLONGOWES 7/1


The staking is quite ugly
Chosen him from 3 possible bets
There was an easier option at Salisbury
But this is a better price
We do have some cover as well
Anything 8/1 or better is fine




Todays Message

Leaving Downpatrick alone
Gordon Elliot sends a lot there
Not ready to fully trust the stable
But his stable are still not firing
He had a winner yesterday
Don't want to second guess him
He dominates a lot of races there

3 Options


Salisbury 2.25

£6 Win Bet Unbridled Spirit 11/2

£4 Win Bet Wicked Sea 11/8

I was going Unbridled Spirit each way
But he has an unorthodox profile
And I feel if we save on the favourite
We have the fittest two horses onside



Cork 4.20

£3.75 Each Way Le Vagabond 9/1

£1.25 Win Bet Apparition 8/1

£1.25 Win Bet Clongowes 7/1


Difficult Irish Handicap
Not least because of 15 runners
Le Vagabond does interest me
Just 3 places is not ideal here
Had a couple of savers I respect
We can lose of either of then win
Protected if La Vagabond places



Cork 5.20

£3.50 Each Way Althib 12/1

£1.50 Win Bet Aunty Audrey 7/1

£1.50 Win Bet Cracking Name 7/1

Difficult Irish Handicap
Quite an unusual selection
We do at least get 4 places
The edge in this race
The market leaders are drawn 16-17
Nobody seems to have picked up
What a horrible draw that is over 8f
ALTHIB starts from a low starting point
Needs to improve over this extra trip
But bred to and he's caught my eye






Monday Plans

Undecided right now
Possibly won't be a message
I am due a day off and need one
I rarely do Monday before Ascot
So probably won't be a message

Want to leave some wiggle room
tuesday Ascot Decs are out today
It could tempt me into something
Want to look at tomorrows cards
And there is a World Cup market
That I want to keep an eye on

If there is a message
I will send an email early tomorrow
If I don't there won't be a message




Saturday's Review

There were 8 Saturday previews
We kept it tight after a bad Friday
And with the demanding Schedule
Nothing went on the main account

Highlighted 1 race won by a saver
Via Serendipity returned our stake
After Salt Whistle Bay was beaten
His chance gone extremely quickly
Clipped heels with another runner
Knocked him back and lost all hope
So I was just pleased the saver won

Don't feel we are getting much luck
Look Out Louis badly blew the start
Pulsating Dragon lost a photo finish
He had led everywhere but the line
We nicked a bit but still so annoying
Edge ran a very decent race at 12/1
He was matched at 1.06 on Betfair
Annoyingly matched at 1.01 to place
Somehow he got robbed on a place
Beaten in the photo finish for third

Royal Mezyan placed finishing fast
But he also suffered a lot of trouble
Pleased to see Conclusion win late
But we had a lot of unlucky runners
That was much better overall effort
A luckier message would look better




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


SALISBURY 2.25

13/8 Wicked Sea, 9/2 Zapateado,
11/2 Chikoko Trail, Sister Celine,
7/1 Unbridled Spirit, 12/1 Guardiola,
12/1 Townie Mac, 20/1 Illustrious Spirit.

8f Apprentice Handicap
Only open to 3 year olds
Whips are not allowed

Only 8 similar races exist
The 8 renewals of this racew

Past winners had the following runs
7 8 5 11 5 5 12 4
Every winner had 4 + runs
Quite happy to oppose horses with 3 runs
All 8 that tried were beaten
On a nasty track like this I'd want more runs

TOWNIE MAC rejected with 3 runs
GUARDIOLA is also out with 3 runs
SISTER CELINE is also out with 3 runs
She is a filly with an absence as well

CHIKOKO TRAIL only has 3 runs
Worries me he's raced once this year
Ideally you want a few recent runs
There are safer options than him
ILLUSTRIOUS SPIRIT is wrong from 12f

Shortlist

ZAPATEADO has enough to shortlist
Why is he drifting to badly though ?
And will that all change later on ?

WICKED SEA comes from 7f
The only horse that has to do that
I don't like that too much
That worries me but big positives
She is the fittest horse for starters
And she has the best last time numbers

UNBRIDLED SPIRIT is a darker horse
Every chance he did not stay 10f last time
He probably only just stays a mile
All 6 career starts were over 8f +
He may find this 8f on faster ground
More managable than any previous run
He could relish this and has every chance

Selection

£6 Win Bet UNBRIDLED SPIRIT 11/2

£4 Win Bet WICKED SEA 11/8





DONCASTER 2.40

No Preview
But give me a free bet
It would be in the place market
I'd bet Aussie View at 4/5
I agree with the Racing Post
Hasn't set a high enough standard
But his 2 extra runs more than most
Will be a powerful help to get placed





DONCASTER 3.10

15/8 White Light, 3/1 Pirate King, 6/1 Pegasus Kid,
7/1 Deep Sea, 8/1 Master Of The Moon, 14/1 Cuckoo's Calling,
14/1 Drifting Star, 20/1 Muftakker, 33/1 Cortado,

Maiden race over 12f

WHITE LIGHT sets the standard

The Middle order of the betting
Does not look too competitive
DEEP SEA is an unraced 4 year old

Maiden races in June
Open to horses aged 3 or more
Show unraced 4 year olds are 1-122
Thats not as bad a stat as it sounds
In 12f races like this they were 1-14
Joseph O'Brien trained that winner
But he was a Male horse not a filly

DEEP SEA is an unraced 4yo filly
Had a play around with this issue
This is the best angle I could find

May June July Aug Sept Oct November
Maiden races for horses aged 3 +
Any Distance during these 7 months
Unraced 4yo Fillies
Have a 1-233 record
That was 50/1 shock Harmonic Lady
She won over 10f as the only winner
DEEP SEA shares this 1-233 profile
She has to be seen as a negative
MASTER OF THE MOON has 2 runs
Both low numbers when unfancied
Could be here for a handicap mark
CUCKOO'S CALLING is a 4yo filly
Hasn't show enough to take this
DRIFTING STAR may need more time

PEGASUS KID is unraced
Unlikely winner from sire/trainer
Unraced horses sired by Motivator
Have never won beyond 10f so far

I can only shortlist 2 horses

PIRATE KING 7/2
WHITE LIGHT 7/4

WHITE LIGHT has a better stable
Has a small edge in the numbers

When She made his debut at Newbury
She was described as "burly" in the paddock
She will have needed that race
Chances are She needed her 2nd race
Second beaten a fair way by a class horse

WHITE LIGHT's form looks a a bit classier
She was made favourite for her debut
In a big field Newbury maiden
Won by high class prospect Lah Ti Dah

Selection

WHITE LIGHT 13/8 - 7/4

Win Bet






DONCASTER 3.40

4/1 Equitation, 6/1 Wentworth Falls, 7/1 Watchable,
8/1 Brian The Snail, Moonraker, 10/1 Boy In The Bar,
12/1 Pipers Note, Sheepscar Lad, 14/1 Dougan,
14/1 Naggers, 16/1 Related, 16/1 Sir Billy Wright,
33/1 Huntsmans Close, Secretinthepark.

6f Handicap

All past winners of this race
Were drawn between Stalls 4-11
Very high or low draws may hurt

Half of these may be underraced
Having had under 2 runs this year

Past winners
Had the following runs this year
5 5 6 2 4 3 1 7 2
I'd rather have 2 + runs this year

WENTWORTH FALLS has 1 run this year
He has a big weight and a career high mark

NAGGERS is a 7yo with 1 run this year
Throw in 84 days off and he is unsafe
HUNTSMAN CLOSE is underraced as an 8yo
BRIAN THE SNAIL has 1 run this year
Hammered 33 lengths in that race as well
SIR BILLY WRIGHT is also short of runs

WATCHABLE is an 8 year old
Hammered last time hurts his profile
SECRETINTHE PARK has similar issues

MOONRAKER comes from a 5f race
Beaten over 10 lengths in that 7 days ago
May be asking too much for him
Horses from 5f in the last 10 days
Beaten over 7 lengths last time were 0-16
MOONRAKER also has Stall 1 as well
Probably the worst of the draw

Males horses aged 4
Coming from 5f races
18 or more runs are 0-50
SHEEPSCAR LAD shares this profile
Not enough positives for me
DOUGAN doesn't offer enough
Not from a poor stable drawn 15/15

Shortlist

EQUITATION is a 4yo
Lightly raced with just 4 runs
Similar 4 year olds
Under 5 runs
Coming from a handicap
1 run this season
Return a 1-9 record in these races
Because he is lightly raced
He gets a pass with 1 run this year

RELATED is an 8yo
Older than ideal but has recent runs

PIPERS NOTE is an 8 year old
He has good recent runs though
And won the race last season

BOYS IN THE BAR is a 7yo
Also has good recent runs

If you look at all of these horses
Only 3 in this field
Have run 3 or more times since May
BOYS IN THE BAR has
PIPERS NOTE has
No other runner can say that
Now this may not matter
May not be the most important factor
But it could be and happy to have that
BOY IN THE BAR is shorter than I expected
Given there are 15 runners and just 3 places
Going to play the race this way

Selection

£5 Win Bet PIPERS NOTE 10/1 +

£4 Win Bet BOY IN THE BAR 9/2

£1 Win Bet RELATED 16/1





DONCASTER 4.10

3/1 Ashington, 7/2 Lumi,
4/1 Teaser, 5/1 Bossiney Bay,
6/1 Suprematism, 6/1 Dawn Dancer.

3yo Classified race over 10f
Messy race with a very small field

ASHINGTON has been made favourite
Clearly has a chance like all of them
My worry is he has 1 run this year
His opponents all had more than that

Past winners had 8 7 5 9 5 5 4 8 runs
Past winners had 7 2 2 5 2 2 1 4 runs that year

Only 1 winner had 1 run that season
That horse (Set To Music) had 4 runs
ASHINGTON has now had 6 runs
I'd have wanted another run for him

All 8 winners had 4 or more runs
7 of them have 5 or more runs
BOSSINEY BAY is rejected with 3 runs
SUPREMATISM only has 4 runs
Throw in 117 days absence as well
He becomes too risky

Shortlist

DAWN DANCER
TEASER
LUMI

These horses seem safer
Mixture of the fittest horses
The more experience types
In a race needing guesswork

Selection

£6 Win Bet DAWN DANCER 5/1

£2 Win Bet TEASER 4/1

£2 Win Bet LUMI 6/1






CORK 4.20

6/1 Alcatraz, 6/1 Clongowes, 6/1 Moonmeister,
13/2 Apparition, 7/1 Lord Erskine, 8/1 Gustavus Vassa,
10/1 Le Vagabond, Sea The Lion, 12/1 Tandem,
12/1 Song Of Namibia, 14/1 St Lawrence Gap,
16/1 Ming Dynasty, Spruce Meadows,
20/1 Geoffrey's Girl, 25/1 Here For The Craic.

12f Handicap for 0-110 class horses

Big field. Quality Race.
Around 25 similar races in June

ALCATRAZ comes from a 10f race
First impressions were concerning
Didn't want a horse sired by Camacho
Over as far as this in a high grade

Horses from 10f or shorter
Have a modest 4-67 record
Those with over 13 runs were 0-47
Those aged over 4 years old were 1-51

The only winners up in trip
Were lightly raced and usually 4yo's
ALCATRAZ fails this and is rejected

TANDEN fails the same angles
He is wrong coming from a mile race
And as a 9yo with an absence is unsafe
MOONMEISTER fails the 10f stats
Up in trip with 1 run this year is wrong
SPRUCE MEADOWS is also from 10f
But as an exposed 5yo unlike a winner

HERE FOR THE CRAIC is 11 years old
Absent 149 days is far too long
GEOFFREY'S GIRL is a 5yo mare
Not showing enough positives yet

GUSTAVIS VASSA is a 4yo debutant
Respected first time out from Willie Mullins
But no 4yo won first time out in these races
Only 12 tried but none of them won
GUSTAVIS VASSA only has 5 runs

12f Handicaps
May June July
Class 2
Horses aged 4
First time out
Under 8 runs
I find a 0-41 record
He may yet win and overcome this
But my angles don't support him

The other consideration is his pedigree
GUSTAVIS VASSA is sired by Equiano
The furthest any flat horse by this sire won at
Was 11f and 196 yards in a Class 6 (Flutterbee)
None he has bred have won over this far

MING DYNASTY is a 6yo
He has raced once in 141 days
From an unproven stable too risky

SONG OF NAMIBIA drops from 2m
I don't like that 4f drop in trip
My angles say it can and has been done
None by a horse as old as him though
Just didn't see enough positives
ST LAWRENCE GAP also has this problem
Versatile type but not safe enough
If you look at his flat and all weather form
Handicap Mark of 88 seems a big ask

SEA THE LION won first time out this year
Won't be easy for him to follow up
He is a 7 year old with 1 run this season
He had 5 weeks off since that victory

LORD ERSKINE comes from hurdles
Not the most orthodox of profiles
He has only ever won on softer ground
And looking at his numbers on the flat
He has a lot to do back over 12f on fast

CLONGOWES is Jim Bolger/Godolphin
He drops from 2m today
Not ideal but it has been done
He has been running some big numbers
Numbers well clear of his handicap mark

APPARITION - Joseph O'Brien 4yo
He is a decent dual purpose horse
I can find a winner like him
He is capable of winning off 86

LE VAGABOND is fit and running well
His last run was over hurdles
But as a 6yo placed last time he is fine
His last run was a career best over hurdles
His 12f flat form suggests he is well treated
His 12f numbers are consistent
They usually beat his handicap mark
Twice he has raced 12f ongood or faster
Racing Post Ratings of 98 and 97
Both better than his rating of 92 today
His rating of 97 was in this race last year
LE VAGABOND was beaten 1.5 lengths then
Raced off a 3lbs higher mark in this last year
Had 5lbs more weight in this last year as well
He should go close off his current rating

Selection

£3.75 Each Way LE VAGABOND 10/1

£1.25 Win Bet APPARITION 7/1

£1.25 Win Bet CLONGOWES 7/1





CORK 4.50

9/4 Victory Salute, 11/4 Dawn Trouper,
5/1 Persian Lion, 11/2 Maysiyana, 7/1 Legal Spin,
7/1 Vintage Teardrop, 50/1 Belle Free,
66/1 Aprils Joy, Mai Fleuri.

10f Maiden race

Probably best left to 4 runners

VICTORY SALUTE is 5/4 favourite
Thats understandable given connections
But his profile does raise a question mark

VICTORY SALUTE has raced once
That was over 1m 4f
He has to drop 2f in distance today
Looked at horses doing this

June and July
9f-10f Maiden races
Horses from 12f races
1 career start
Had a 1-54 record in these months
Those that raced on turf were 0-46
So it is not the safest profile in the race

MAYSIYANA is an unraced filly
Her 3 biggest rivals are experienced males
So she has plenty to prove on debut
VINTAGE TEARDROP has the same challenge
LEGAL SPIN is an unraced second string

DAWN TROUPER was 3rd on his debut
PERSIAN LION was 5th in the same race

DAWN TROUPER was among the front runners
PERSIAN LION at the back missing the break

DAWN APPROACH was headed by the favourite
PERSIAN LION stayed on very nicely from the back
Inside the last furlong they were close together
DAWN APPROACH appeared to hamper Persian Lion
To the naked eye Persian Lion looked unlucky
Thats maybe why Persian Lion is being backed
Not sure how far we can trust that run
One factor that could be significant
PERSIAN LION was a 66/1 chance that day
DAWN APPROACH was a 6/1 chance
Judging by their last time out prices
DAWN APPROACH could be the safer bet
Because of this and the favourites profile
I would see him as the sensible bet here
In a race thats hard to understand properly
Because we have to anticipate improvement

Selection

DAWN APPROACH 3/1-100/30

Each Way







CORK 5.20

11/2 Hey Pretty, 6/1 Texas Radio, 7/1 Althib,
8/1 Cosmic Symbol, Cracking Name, 10/1 Aunty Audrey,
10/1 Eadbhard, 12/1 La Cumparsita, Lomi's Law,
14/1 Baby Bellini, Beau Satchel, 16/1 Tynamite,
25/1 Ask Katie, Bella Rua, Intense Stylist, Still Alive,
33/1 Crossingoz, Desert Dancer.

This 8f handicap is very hard
Need to mention a draw stat

Cork 8f Handicaps
Since 2001
With 9 or more runners

Horses drawn 1-9 have a 33-324 record
Horses drawn 10 + have a 3-153 record

High Draws have a miserable record
Very sharp early bends are the reason

If you look at Cork 8f races
In Class 5 and 6
Horses drawn 10 or more
Have a 0-109 record since 2011
So I would avoid all horses here
That are drawn 10 or higher
Which includes the market leaders

If we pull out a few bad profiles
Seasonal debutants and unfit horses
I can only shortlist the following

BABY BELLINI 14/1
BEAU SATCHELL 10/1
CRACKING NAME 7/1
AUNTY AUDREY 7/1
ALTHIB 11/1

AUNTY AUDREY is effective here
Wasn't completely sold on her profile
But think she needs to be a saver

ALTHIB is up in distance
Over a trip he is bred to relish
Saw enough last time to give him a chance

Selection

£3.50 Each Way ALTHIB 10/1-12/1

£1.50 Win Bet AUNTY AUDREY 7/1

£1.50 Win Bet CRACKING NAME 7/1





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



ROYAL ASCOT

Tuesdays declarations are due
They will be coming out anytime now
We will also have the Draws as well

Obviously Ascot dominates next week
But I will be looking at other meetings






US OPEN Golf

Update

Top American
Dustin Johnson 5/1
Each Way


Leaderboard

Dustin Johnson +3 (USA)
Daniel Berger +3 (USA)
Tony Finau +3 (USA)
Brooks Koepka +3 (USA)
Justin Rose +4
Henrik Stenson +5
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +6
Patrick Reed +6 (USA)
Jim Furyk +6 (USA)
Brian Gay +7

DUSTIN JOHNSON is joint leader
He had a disaster yesterday
He shot 7 over par yesterday
Lost his 4 stroke lead
He is still in the hunt though
Joint leader with 3 other players

DUSTIN JOHNSON is now

11/4 to win the Us Open
13/8 to be Top American

I suggested laying the bet off yesterday
As he was 11/8 to be Top American
You've done nothing wrong if you have

The course is an absolute nightmare
The leading score is 3 over par
And just 1 hole can kill you here

Every chance of collection this bet
But obviously his chance is harder now
If you haven't laid off you still can
I will leave that up to you
Yesterday it looked an outstanding bet
But after the 3rd round scores
It is downgraded to a very good bet
And still has every chance of collecting





WORLD CUP

SPAIN 6/1

The Spaniards were my selection
Had a small bet and happy enough

I thought they played well v Portugal
I keep going back to my original view
That Spanish teams dominate Europe
The last 5 Champions Leagues
And 4 of the last Europa Leagues
They know how to get the job done
They are more disciplined than most
Much as we can only take a guess

GERMANY play today
BRAZIL play today

Obviously very interesting day

There is a market I am very keen on

World Cup

Top Goascorer

9/4 Cristiano Ronaldo 3 Goals
7/1 Diego Costa 2 Goals
9/1 Neymar 0 Goals
10/1 Antoine Griezmann 1 Goals
16/1 Sergio Agüero 1 Goals
16/1 Harry Kane 0 Goals
16/1 Timo Werner 0 Goals
20/1 Gabrial Jesus 0 Goals
20/1 Lionel Messi 0 Goals

It is still a bit early

See what Germany and Brazil do today

But the think I like a lot about this market

It is 1/4 the odds 1-2-3-4
4 places available !!!

There is a reasonable case
That with 3 Goals already

Cristiano Ronaldo isn't a bad bet
Even at a price as low as 2/1-9/4
When you get 4 places on your side

If he nicks a couple more goals
We would be in a superb position
Even allowing for the fact
Portugal could get knocked out early

Having watched Atletico Madrid so much
Because of our Europa League bet
DOUGLAS COSTA is a player I do like
I see him more effective than Grizeman

He could be an excellent bet too
Around 7/1 each way with 4 places
You wouldn't want to lay that bet
With 2 goals already from his 1st game

Still a bit early to commit to a player
I want to get today out of the way first
And have not chosen the bet I want yet

But 1/4 the Odds 1-2-3-4 is generous
It will not last through the tournament
The moment it smells like a generous market
Bookmakers Will change it to win only

So we need to strike quite soon
Whilst the place terms are so generous

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