3 Previews
1 Account Bet
2 Highlighted Bets
1 Negative


Account Bet

Hamilton 2.30

LIFE FOR RENT 3/1

Each Way





Highlighted Bets


Hamilton 4.30
Warmhearted 11/10
Win Bet

Doncaster 5.45
Muatadel 5/2
Each Way




Today's Message

3 Previews
Hamilton 2.30
Hamilton 4.30
Doncaster 5.45


I pulled yesterday's message
With my best bet compromised
I hope and think that was right
Given today's message is better
I like it and see bits of quality work

The 1st Official Negative runs

Hamilton 4.30 - Agadeer 11/10


I had 3 choices of account bet
The Bet on Muatadel is now 5/2
Thats shorter than I would like

It was a toss up

LIFE FOR RENT Each way 3/1
or
WARMHEARTED 11/10 Win Bet

I prefer WARMHEARTED myself
But it is just the short price

LIFE FOR RENT appeals to me
I like it more than some of you will
The alternative was only evens
WARMHEARTED is a bit short

Not entirely thrilled
That the main bet is 3/1 each way
But the alternative
Was No Bet or a 11/10 horse





NEGATIVES & FALSE FAVOURITES

Official Negatives

Hamilton 4.30

Agadeer 6/4

These should be 5/4 or less
But 6/4 turning a blind eye
He will probably trade less





False Favourites

No Bet
None are in races
That tempt me into a bet
Agadeer would have been one
But upgraded him to a negative







Tuesday's Review

The highlighted bet was beaten
Bisoubisou stunk in the market
Writing was on the wall early on
He was very weak in the morning
More so in the afternoon as well
Hardly surprising he failed to win
Didn't get much right on the day

One or two people E-mailed me
Saying messages are confusing
They are not sure what to back
I agree things could be clearer
So today attempting to sort that




PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Incorporating

Angles @ Observations




HAMILTON 2.00

4/6 Space Traveller, 7/4 Roulston Scar,
10/1 Epona, 25/1 Slieve Donard, 100/1 Jordan's Chris.

5f Novice for 2 year olds

SPACE TRAVELLER sets the standard
On his debut deserves to be favourite
He won a 6f Novice last time
That was a Racing Post Rating of 85
ROULSTON STAR beaten at Beverley
Earnt a Racing Post Rating of just 76

However
Whilst he has a 9lbs better figure
SPACE TRAVELLER also has a penalty
And what worries me about his profile
Is he drops in trip quickly after 1 run

June to October
5f Novices
Horses from 6f
1 career start
Running within 16 days
Returned a modest 1-43 record
The one horse that did manage it
Did not win on his debut
Therefore didn't have a penalty

Either of these could win
But purely on their profiles
ROULSTON STAR comes out best

Kevin Ryan is not a trainer to rely on
Hard to read at the best of times
My angles just prefer Roulston Scar
This is just an angle or an observation
Quite happy to sit the race out myself

Best profile - Roulston Scar

Selection - No Bet






HAMILTON 2.30

5/2 Our Place In Loule, 3/1 Life For Rent,
4/1 Zig Zag Zyggy, 6/1 Mount Hellvelyn,
10/1 Camanche Grey, Kodimoor, 14/1 Corton Lass,
20/1 Knockamany Bends, 33/1 Griffin Street.

5f Handicap
Low Grade race

OUR PLACE IN LOULE won last time
He scraped home in a 0-57 class race
His highest ever Racing Post Rating is 61
Hardly impressive in a 23 race career
He has limitations and not my choice

Dangerous race on a difficult track
CAMANCHE GREY has 188 days off
Should be beatable as a 7 year old

If I am right about Our Place In Loule
And right about Camanche Grey as well

LIFE FOR RENT rated 65
ZIG ZAG ZYGGY rated 61
Only have a 0-51 class field to beat
I like this class angle
Makes me feel they can outclass these

KODIMOORE has a chance
But he doesn't have much class
Behind Our Place In Loule last time
And I don't fancy the form much
MOUNT HELLVELYN has poor numbers
He has just downgraded stables too
CORTON LASS a filly running poor numbers

The point I am trying to make
There is a case purely on number
LIFE FOR RENT & ZIG ZAG ZYGGY
May have the class to beat these

ZIG ZAG ZYGGY
Does have a bit to prove on paper

ZIG ZAG ZYGGY is trained in Ireland
His trainer's career record is 0-53
R J Osborne has never trained a winner
His profile also worries me as well

ZIG ZAG ZYGGY has never ran at 5f
He only has 5 career starts as well

Similar 5f Handicaps (Class 6)

Male 3 year olds
Down from 6 furlongs
Under 10 career starts
Do not score well in these race

During June they are 1-16
During July they are 0-25
During August they are 0-28
Thats just 1-69 in these summer months
ZIG ZAG ZYGGY looks unsafe statistically

That said
He ran over 6f here last time
He was 3 lengths clear a furlong out
Looked like he would be better at 5f
And he did post a career best last time
On last time out Racing Post Ratings
ZIG ZAG ZYGGY is comfortably clear
So despite some dodgy angles about him
He can not be opposed lightly

LIFE FOR RENT is safer statistically
I like how he's slotted into this race
Rated 65 and facing only a 0-59 race
Given he was rated 69 very recently
He drops from a 0-77 to a 0-59

Visually it looked to me
Like he was one of 3 horses
Who went off too fast last time


Option 1
LIFE FOR RENT 3/1
Each WAY

Option 2

£7 Win Bet LIFE FOR RENT 3/1
£3 Win Bet ZIG ZAG ZYGGY 11/4

Selection

LIFE FOR RENT 3/1

Each WAY




HAMILTON 4.30

9/4 Agadeer, Warmhearted,
6/1 Thiobraid Arann, 10/1 Indie Groove,
25/1 Mama Said.

8f Novice for 3 year olds

These races are a new initiative
Only have 2018 results to look at

That is not very helpful
When looking at AGADEER
Who steps up from 6f to 8f
Having raced just 7 days ago
That is a profile that worries me
This angle does put me off him

June to December
Since 2006
Non Handicap races over 8f
Horses aged 3
Coming from 6f or shorter
Running within the last 2 weeks
Have a 0-94 record in these races

AGADEER fails this 0-94 statistic
I have to oppose him with his profile

BILLY RUSKIN is unraced
Obviously that complicates things
His sires unraced winners over 8f +
Are few and far between though
He hasn't had many over 7f either

Since 2002
Unraced horses by Bahamian Bounty
Running on Turf over 7f +
Have a poor 2-109 record
Male horses in this record are 0-72
BILLY RUSKIN is weak on breeding stats

BILLY RUSKIN now a non runner


WARMHEARTED has 3 runs
Looks an advantage over some of these
His numbers are not very exciting
But his excuses are

WARMHEARTED sired by Invincible Spirit
This sire has never had an unraced winner
Who won over 10f or more before
WARMHEARTED had this problem on debut
So that was a legitimate excuses

He ran 11.5f on his second run
No horse sired by Invincible Spirit
Has won over 11f or more before
Having had under 3 career starts

So yet again he was trying something
No horse has done from this sire before

Last time he ran well (2nd) over 10f
Split horses rated 81 and 78
That will probably be good enough

Selection

WARMHEARTED 11/10

Win Bet




HAMILTON 5.05

4/1 Zoravan, 5/1 Crazy Tornado, 11/2 Red Charmer,
6/1 Lotara, 7/1 Clary, 7/1 Mostawfee, 10/1 Ana Lichious,
12/1 Finnion Fox, 16/1 Dutch Coed, 20/1 Flying Focus,
33/1 Zarkavon, 33/1 Palace Ball

8f Handicap

First impressions - It is too vile
I couldn't bet many of these

Crazy Tornado isn't running well
Lotara is running average numbers
Her best form's over shorter and in 2016
Ana Lichious is a mare with 1 run this year
She looks on the bounce
Mostawfee has to prove fitness
Finnion Fox is unsafe
Clary hasn't run in ages

This leaves 3 horses

Zoravan
Red Charmer
Dutch Coed

My first fancy
Was Zoravan each way 4/1
On the basis he is the class horse

But since 2013
Hamilton 8f races
Horses drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-52 record
That worries me for Zorafan
Undermines his chance a bit
So decided to bail out of a nasty race

No Selection




CHEPSTOW 5.15

9/4 Takiah, 3/1 Branscombe,
5/1 Show Of Force, Tally's Son,
5/1 Warofindependence, 14/1 Foresee.

10f Handicap
Messy race

TALLY'S SON comes from 7f
Thats an unacceptable profile
FORSEE is absent too long

BRANSCOMBE is my choice
I like his 3 day absence
I like that he has dropped from 80 to 70
And only faces a 0-65 class race

The Racing Post are right
In questioning his stamina over 10f
This could be a bit further than ideal
But with his class edge and recent run
I felt his positives trumped his negatives

Just wish I had more negatives
If you gave me a free bet
I'd go each way BRANSCOMBE 5/2
But with plenty I can't know here




LEICESTER 5.25

5/2 Me Before You, 3/1 Ghost, 5/1 Mistry,
8/1 Tuscany, 10/1 Miss Mo Brown Bear,
12/1 Rocus, 16/1 Dreamboat Annie.

6f Apprentice Handicap

10 past renewals
Curiously all 10 winners
Had the same profile

They were all aged 4-5-6-7
Horses aged 3 are 0-19 in this race

All 10 winners ran within 36 days
9 of the 10 ran within 23 days
8 of the 10 ran within 15 days

All 10 winners
Came from Class 6 or lower
This is a strangely curious angle
Horses from Class 5 races
Had a 0-51 record in this race
Not sure whether to trust that stat

All 10 winners
Had at least 3 races
In the previous 6 months

If you apply these angles
You find just 1 horse passes them

MISTRY 11/2

I wouldn't put anyone off
Given the angles in this race
But there are things I don't like

First of all just 7 horses run now
So we have lost the each way option

The 3 year olds may be 0-19 in this
But they have 5 of the 8 runners
So how much I can trust that I don't know

MISTRY may be the only qualifier
Her numbers are really not very good
Her small stable have 3 in the race
I really don't know what to expect here

No Selection






DONCASTER 5.45

5/2 Jeany, 3/1 Bondi Beach Boy, 9/2 Muatadel,
15/2 Desert Sport, Mininggold, 10/1 Astrophysics,
12/1 Point Of Woods, You're Cool.

5f Handicap
Apprentice Riders

JEANY is a 4yo filly
She has raced once in 11 months
Has to be a big concern over 5f
Without even considering the bounce
Her 12 day return after a quick absence
I ran her profile carefully
It was not as bad as I had hoped
But I don't want to risk a 4yo filly
When so short of runs as she is

BONDI BEACH BOY makes no appeal
Not as a 9yo with 1 run in only 187 days
MININGGGOLD has plenty to prove
As an exposed older mare off 6 weeks
Some of these seem short of runs
ASTROPHYSICS just a couple this year
He could take this on some 2017 runs
Hard to know if reached form/fitness
POINT OF WOODS has 154 days off
DESERT SPORT not selected or ruled out

MUTADEL interests me most
He has several warm up runs this year
His 5 day absence the shortest in the race
He won the race last year
The stable are red hot as well
In the last 2 weeks they are 6-19

Main worry is what kind of form he is in
He may not be running at his absolute peak
But this is a significant drop in class

MUTADEL drops from a Class 4 (0-85)
To a Class 5 race for 0-68 rated horses

MUTADEL is 0-11 in Class 4 races
His Class 5 record is much better (3-11)
This is also his time of year as well
So I am hoping this drop in Class
And his recent runs will help him
Against several short of runs this year
To repeat his win in this race last year

Selection

MUTADEL 5/2

Each Way





EPSOM 6.30

Evs Eyelool, 11/4 Light Heart,
9/1 Slade King, The Great Story,
10/1 Spirit Warning, 14/1 Manguzi,
20/1 Curfewed, 100/1 Misty Boy.

7f Maiden
LIGHT HEART has stamina doubts
I opposed him at Musselburgh last time
He was unplaced and didn't get home
One surprising thing about Epsom
The Standard times of 7f races here
Takes 6 seconds less to run 7f at Epsom
Than it does to run 7f at Musselburgh
So this should be easier for him to stay
I would still marginally prefer EYELOOL
This is just an angle and an observation
This far sharper track 6 seconds faster
Stops me saying Light Heart wont stay
EYELOOL looks the more likely winner
But on a sharper track happy to leave it

Safest choice - Eyelool

Selection - No Bet






LEOPARDSTOWN 7.50

11/10 National Glory, 5/2 Waikuku, 7/2 Castle Chase,
10/1 Singing'n'dancing, 25/1 Bercasa, 50/1 Alternate Peace,
50/1 Royal Admiral, Shifting Spirit.

7F Maiden

NATIONAL GLORY is 6/4 on Betfair
You can get 6/4 in the offices

He has raced 4 times so far
He has been a bit frustrating
But his numbers are respectable

Given CASTLE CHASE is unraced
And WAIKUKU is a seasonal debutant
NATIONAL GLORY should go close
With a good run 11 days ago
He'd have to be my selection
Looks an ideal candidate
For an each way double as well




EPSOM 8.10

15/8 Data Protection, 9/2 Banksy's Art,
9/2 Flere Imsaho, 11/2 Lady Safeara,
6/1 The Night King, 7/1 Sukhovey.

3yo Handicap over 8f

DATA PROTECTION has 11 runs
He's raced just once since October 2017
My statistics hate his profile
They are clearly implying
In 3yo handicaps such as this
Any horse with over 7 previous runs
Should need more than 1 run in months
DATA PROTECTION looks vulnerable

My worry here is they all do
Small field makes it harder to trust
We have horses up from 7f races
Horses down from 10f and 12f races
Some dodgy stables also mix it up
I didn't want to commit to anything

Horse to avoid - Data Protection
Selection - No Bet







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



Tour De France

Geraint Thomas is 5/2

With William Hill

1/4 the Odds 1-2-3

Not enough prices to suggest a bet
But that looks a smart bet to me
By tomorrow it could be just 2 places

Rather than have this bet myself
I decided to concoct a novelty bet
And include the Cycling in this bet


Ante Post Novelty Bet

Just had this bet with Bet365
Knocked it up in just 5 minutes

Could be clever
Could be stupid


Each Way Accumulator

Leicester 2.20 - Jaquar 11/2
Leopardstown 7.50 - National Glory 6/4
Tour De France - Geraint Thomas 5/2
Us Open Tennis - Simona Halep 10/1

Each Way Accumulator


Forget about the win part of the bet
That is not going to happen
Its the Place part that matters

The Main aim of the bet
Is to manipulate a big price

About Simona Halep in the US open
As the Place terms are half the odds

JAQUAR needs to be 1st or 2nd
But you are getting 11/8 a place
In a 5 runner race
With horses at 50/1 100/1 100/1

NATIONAL GLORY should place tonight

The Tour De France bet
Makes sense on paper
I don't now much about it
But the race changed yesterday
Started to take a bit of shape
It is 16/1 bar 2
It is 33/1 bar 3
Geraint Thomas is the race leader
He now has a 85 second lead in the Tour
May take something like a disaster
To kick him out of the front 1-2-3

Some Firms are only 2 places now
Betting on the Tour De France
Bet365 are 3 places
Skybet are 3 places
Hills are 1/4 the odds 1-2-3-4

It's about to go 2 places everywhere
So decided to have this bet today

So a £5 each way accumulator staking £10

Will mean if we get the above legs right
Simona Halep getting to the US Open final
Would return £138.94
That is 13/1 about her placing
Anyway I've had this Novelty Bet
Quite prepared to see it lose today
But I think we can get all 4 legs right
My Biggest worry is the Leicester 2.20 leg




Saturday

Newbury 3.35

Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes

Queen of Bermuda 7/2 Signora Cabello 9/2 Little Kim 5/1
Kinks 6/1 Tin Hat 8/1 Society Queen 11/1 Red Balloons 14/1
Cookupastorm 16/1 Snazzy 16/1 On The Stage 16/1
Good Tyne Girl 20/1 Vena d'Amore 20/1 Buckingham 20/1
Cococabala 20/1 Time For Bed 25/1 Blame Roberta 25/1
Its The Only Way 25/1 Astronaut 33/1 Garsbay 33/1
Piste de Reflexion 33/1 Praxidice 33/1 Diamonique 33/1
Naughty Rascal 33/1 Chasing The Rain 33/1 Patronus 33/1

We didn't get the winner last year
But it was run on unusually soft ground
And my angles usually get this right

Signora Cabello won the Queen Mary
She is now the 4/1 favourite

Best Profile

Horses from Royal Ascot
Running 28-32 days ago
Running over 5f last time
Starting under 40/1 last time
Between 3-4-5 career starts
Beaten under 20 lengths at Ascot
Starting under 33/1 in this race
39 horses ran with this above profile
10 of the 39 that tried won this
1997 1998 2000 2001 2004
2006 2009 2011 2014 2015

4 Horses will share this profile

SIGNORA CABELLO
QUEEN OF BERMUDA
KINKS
TIN HAT

Racing Post Ratings
Suggest 5 horses stand out

100 LITTLE KIM
99 SIGNORA CABELLO
94 TIN HAT
92 KINKS
90 QUEEN OF BERMUDA

The other horses
Have much lower numbers
Some of these have statistical problems

Horses from 6f races
Have a 0-97 record since 2006
The following fail this angle

Its The Only Way 25/1 - Cookupastorm 16/1
On The Stage 16/1 - Society Queen 11/1
Buckingham 20/1 - Howzer Black 33/1

Since 2003
Horses with 4 + runs
Running in the last 4 weeks
Have a 0-119 record in this race
Red Balloons 14/1 has this problem

My angles will knock most horses out
It's a race where statistics often work
Combined with the best numbers

Too early to make any decisions
The draw will also be important
But this could be a race we sort

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