8 Previews
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Epsom Derby and Oaks week
Starting with this Bank Holiday
8 Previews in this message
Spread of races from all codes
Doesn't feel like a Bank Holiday
Without a Grade 1 track racing
Feels more like a busy Monday
No Account Bet



Today's Message

Busy schedule for a Monday
The clock is fast running down
These are the bets I like most


Huntingdon 1.30

Fifty Shades 6/4

Win Bet


Redcar 1.50

£6.50 Win Essenza 7/2

£3.50 Win The Great Heir 2/1


Chelmsford 2.05

£5.50 Win Treasure Quest 9/2

£4.50 Win The Last Party 5/4


There is a lot of tactical staking
Reasonably happy with the message
The last 2 races look a bit random
But not a lot of time to firm up a bet

Wouldn't have staked Treasure Quest
Wouldn't trust the trainer in a walkover

Essenza v The Great Heir does appeal
Essenza each way was another option

Fifty Shades is a sexy unratable horse
At the price he did not appeal as a bet

Decided I didn't have a bet
That was good enough to stake
Therefore no account bet

Today's Best Bet

Huntingdon 1.30

Fifty Shades 6/4

Win Bet






Yesterday's Review

There were 5 Previews yesterday
Offering each way double options

CLIFFS OR MOHER placed in 2nd
HAPPILY in the Guineas placed 3rd
GARDENS OF BABYLON didn't run
Each way doubles whilst unpalatable
Were probably the sensible strategy

CLIFFS OR MOHER was fascinating
This is my theory is about that race
Aidan O'Brien is clearly a genius
Interested in breeding not betting

CLIFFS OF MOHER has a pattern win
Possibly not his main target yesterday
Ascot could well be his primary target
LANCASTER BOMBER was different
He had only ever won a maiden before
His record is 0-13 in Group 1 company
Often sacrificed for other horses too

He needed to win a Group 1 with him
He found a perfect Group 1 yesterday
Maybe "The boys" wanted him to win
He knew he only had Defoe to beat
If saving Cliffs of Moher for Royal Ascot

LANCASTER BOMBER gets a big lead
He goes 20 lengths clear of the others
CLIFFS OF MOHER miles off the pace
Alongside Defoe tracking his danger
LANCASTER BOMBER is well backed
And half hearted closer Cliffs Of Moher
Conveniently had ground to make up

LANCASTER BOMBER gets a Group 1
Becomes a much more valuable horse
CLIFFS OF MOHER gets an Ascot prep

Maybe I am wrong but thats how I see it
They have got exactly what they wanted
Only Hindsight allows us to see that plan
Good bad or ugly that stable educate us
PLATINUM WORLD was a decent winner
Just did enough in a confused message
For it to end ok with some respectability
The message that I took from yesterday
CLIFFS OF MOHER may yet win at Ascot



FITTEST HORSES

None Today

20 Bet Trial
Current Record

P L P P L L P W L
Bet 1 Placed 2nd 10/1-6/1
Bet 2 Lost 4/5-4/7
Bet 3 Placed 2nd 5/1
Bet 4 Placed 3rd 7/2
Bet 5 Lost 2nd 2/1
Bet 6 Lost unp 6/4
Bet 7 Placed 2nd 5/1
Bet 8 Won 5/1 E/way
Bet 9 Lost 11/4 3rd




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


HUNTINGDON 1.30

6/4 Fifty Shades,
3/1 Sweet'N'Chic, 4/1 Ilewindelilah,
5/1 Some Finish, 13/2 Sheelbewhatsheelbe,
25/1 Ruaraidh Hugh, 50/1 Grand Gigolo.

3m 1f Handicap Hurdle
A race full of bad horses
With hopefully one blossoming

FIFTY SHADES has just won a chase
This may be a hurdle and over further
But his momentum could be too strong

FIFTY SHADES is in a very good place
His trainer has not had him long
Christian Williams has improved him
And got him fit and able to win last time
He won a 2m 4f Chase last time out
Now he runs in a 3m 1f handicap hurdle

Statistically very difficult to predict
Obvious concerns about this
A lot of known unknowns as well
Given he best form in over fences
All that is true and I could oppose him
But he has hit form and has poor rivals

FIFTY SHADES has some momentum
He won with a lot in hand last time
And he must be well treated off just 86
The opposition are not short of problems
SOME FINISH has also been chasing
He's not ran in a hurdle race in 15 months

LOVE THE LEADER is a 10yo off 179 days
ILEWINDELILAH a 10yo mare absent 204 days
SWEETNCHIC is an 8yo Mare
She has a 0-16 career record
Her Career best R.Post Rating just 86
That exposes her as very modest

It may not be about the opposition
FIFTY SHADES is either on a journey
Where he will improve past this poor lot
Or he may not want a return to hurdling
For me though he is worth staying with
Because he could just be thrown in
He could just be blossoming right now
And he is 3 years younger than the others

RUARAUDH HUGH is the danger
He is topweight
Hard to fancy on recent form
But the 2nd topweight is a non runner
Allowing him as a 100 rated horse
To take on only a 0-89 rated field
He is the saver if you want one

Selection

FIFTY SHADES 11/8

Win Bet





LEICESTER 1.45

9/4 Full Suit, 5/2 Manchego,
3/1 Strongarm Chaser, 5/1 Racehorse,
12/1 Roman Saints, 14/1 Mulsanne Chase,
33/1 Billie Flynn, 50/1 Slipalongtrevaskis.

10f Selling race
For horses aged 3-4-5

FULL SUIT looks wrong
Smells like a disastrous profile
She is a 4yo filly with just 4 runs
She drops down 6f in distance
No horse has won anywhere like her
She was sold this year for just £4k
And her numbers since are regressive
ROMAN SAINTS has raced just twice
Hasn't shown nearly enough yet
BILLY FLYNN has similar problems
MULSANNE CHASE flopped last time
That was his first run of the year
Since then has downgraded stables

RACECOURSE is a 3yo up in trip
Well beaten last time against 3yo's
She's never faced older horses before
Not enough positives looking at her

STRONGMAN CHASER is a 3yo
He has raced just 5 times so far
Costing 200k as a yearling
He has been a major flop so far
Looks to have a little bit of ability
But short of runs down 2f in distance

MANCHEGO has the best numbers
He's achieved more than any of these
He also has more runs this year as well
On paper he looks like an easy winner
But he is not a particularly big horse
He has not proven he can stay this far
And has to give a bit of weight away
MANCHEGO must make the staking
But not sure he is the banker he looks

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet MANCHEGO 5/2

£2.50 Win Bet STRONGMAN CHASER 7/2




REDCAR 1.50

11/4 Arthur's Spirit, 100/30 Essenza,
7/2 The Great Heir, 12/1 Pritty Livvy,
12/1 Tick Tock Croc, 12/1 Tobeeornottobee,
16/1 Agent Smith,16 I Believe In You, Prancealong,
20/1 Cheerupmylove, 33/1 Bouncin Back,
331 Lincoln Red, Percy Drake, Princess Power,
50/1 Queen Of Scheme.

5f Novice

Not many can win this
Some of these may not get home
ARTHURS SPIRIT has the best numbers
But went backwards last time
And I would see him as a weak finisher

TICK TOCK CROC has a chance
His debut was at Beverley 3 weeks ago
Ran in one division of an Auction maiden
THE GREAT HEIR ran in the better division
The impression from both of those races
THE GREAT HEIR looks the better horse

If you look at 5f Redcar races since
Unraced horses drawn 10 or more
Have a 0-32 record since 2001

PRINCESS POWER is unraced drawn 13
PRANCELOT & PRITTY LIVVY also fail this
The latter may not get home anyway
I BEIEVE IN YOU is unraced drawn 15

THE GREAT HEIR should go close here
ESSENZA is a legitimate danger
Staking a bet around this pair

Both previous winners of this race
Had 2 previous career starts
THE GREAT HEIR has 2 runs
He is probably the more likely winner
But he is also the shortest price
But the stable can be unreliable
Neither of his parents ever raced at 5f
So making him a saver

Selection

£6.50 Win ESSENZA 7/2

£3.50 Win THE GREAT HEIR 2/1 - 9/4






CHELMSFORD 2.05

2/1 The Last Party, 11/2 Treasure Quest,
7/1 Swiss Pride, 15/2 Islay Mist, 8/1 Aisling,
10/1 Broughtons Flare, 10/1 Revich,
12/1 Chakrii, 14/1 Princess Florence,
25/1 Milldean Felix

6f Novice

If we look at numerical achievements
THE LAST PARTY has achieved most
TREASURE QUEST comes out 2nd best
Both horses have two career runs
I suspect one of these should win

TREASURE QUEST ran well at Bath
When he was drawn on the wide outside
He had SWISS PRIDE behind him that day
He should again over this extra furlong
SWISS PRIDE may not stay this 6f distance
With AISLING hammered very recently
Several others well behind on numbers
There may not be much opposition here
I would favour the split stake bet here

Selection

£5.50 Win TREASURE QUEST 9/2

£4.50 Win THE LAST PARTY 5/4





CARTMEL 2.10

13/8 The Steward, 15/8 Crushed, 10/1 Outcrop,
12/1 Clemento, Start Seven, 14/1 Green Light,
14/1 Stipulate, 25/1 Animated Hero, Every Chance,
33/1 It's All About Me, 50/1 Geordie George,
50/1 Leopard, Lucky Lucarno, 100/1 Jackhammer.

Novice Hurdle around 2m 1f

2 horses dominate the market

CRUSHED
THE STEWARD

THE STEWARD didn't feel safe
If you look at his sire Street Cry
His hurdlers over 2m 1f and more
With under 4 previous hurdle runs
Have a modest 1-54 record
THE STEWARD had decent flat form
But we are not racing on the flat
And he has had some issues as well
He has raced once in just 185 days now
Novice Hurdles in May - June
2m 2f and shorter
4yo Males
Winning Maiden Hurdles last time
Running within 3 weeks
With previous form on the Flat
Return and encouraging 5-8 record
CRUSHED shares this 5-8 record

I'd rather take the 4 year old
From a high class stable
On the back of an easy win

Selection

CRUSHED 13/8

Win Bet





CHELMSFORD 3.15

4/1 Aguerooo, 9/2 Varsovian,
5/1 Letmestopyouthere, 11/2 Mishaal,
6/1 Musical Comedy, 6/1 Ocean Temptress,
8/1 Liberatum, 14/1 Lord Cooper

6f Classified Claiming Stakes

Most of these have similar ratings
MUSICAL COMEDY is the lowest rated
Hard to make a case form him here

What I am looking for here
Recent runs and lots of them
Consistent strong numbers as well

VARSOVIAN does not really offer that
As an 8yo with a 70 day absence
LIBERATUM's numbers are too low
LETMESTOPYOUTHERE is beatable
OCEAN TEMPTRESS is the only filly
She also has to come down in distance

AGUEROOO has a form chance
All his wins were pre 2017
He is now 0-13 since them
Could win but not first choice

MISHAAL offered me the most
On last time out Racing Post Ratings
MISHAAL has a 4lbs edge on these
He also has the shortest absence too
He has raced 4 times since April this year
None of his rivals can say the same
The calculation with these positives
Are he should have enough to go close
And there may not be three to beat him

Selection

MISHAAL 3/1

Each Way




WINDSOR 3.40

5/2 Urban Icon, 7/2 Quirky Gertie,
5/1 So Hi Class, 7/1 Even Keel, 10/1 Bring Us Paradise,
10/1 Greeley, Heatherdown, 14/1 More Than Likely,
20/1 Society Shock, 50/1 Max Guevara
50/1 Very Stable Genius.

6f Novice

URBAN ICON is unraced drawn 11
SO HI CLASS is unraced drawn 10

Unraced horses over this course/distance
Have a miserable record drawn 8 or higher
Normally I'd oppose them with confidence

But one horse has just beaten that stat
Main Edition won on debut drawn 11 recently
So that statistic is weakened a bit
But I think we should still avoid them
URBAN ICON is owned by Michael Pescod
Many of his horses are given quiet debuts
SO HI CLASS is sired by Dark Angel
Not the best sire for 6f debutants
So I'd look elsewhere and avoid these
The problem being we have to guess
There are no outstanding candidates
HEATHERDOWN was hammered 11 days ago
Has to make rapid improvement in that time
That is too big an ask to consider him
I'd shortlist 3 of the more sensible opions
Take a guess on a 2 and save on the other

Selection

Small Stakes

£4.00 Win Bet SOCIETY SHOCK 13/2

£5.00 Win Bet QUIRKY GERTIE 4/1

£1 Win Bet EVEN KEEL 9/1





HUNTINGDON 3.45

7/4 Kings Temptation, 9/2 The Wicket Chicken,
9/2 Youngoconnor, 5/1 Bach De Clermont,
10/1 Samson, 10/1 Krugermac

2m 7f Novice Handicap Chase

YOUNGOCONNOR seems popular
He is 3/1 from Christian Williams stable
My angles don't like him as a 5yo

Novice Handicaps Chases in May
Run over 2m 5f and more
Show all horses aged 5
Have a 0-70 record in these races

If we include May and June
Since 2008
Novice Handicaps Chases
Run over 2m 6f and more
Horses aged 5 are 0-37 in them

My angles don't like 5 year olds
Running over as far as this
YOUNGOCONNOR has raced once
Decent enough debut over 2m 4f
But her profile is not like any winners
Even without considering she's a mare
This preview will depend on this angle
And whether we choose the right alternative

THE WICKET CHICKEN is a mare
She has never ran over fences before
A Chasing debutant mare is not safe
If I look at similar races
Novice Handicaps Chases
Run over 2m 5f and more
Any time of year
Mares under 7
Having their Chasing debuts
Running within the last 4 months
Return a 0-43 record since 2007
I'd rather stay with proven chasers

BACH DE CLERMONT has the best form
But he has raced just once and badly
Since mid December 2017
Going to make her the saver
KINGS TEMPTATION the main bet
He won last time on his 2nd Chase start
On the numbers it was a career best run

Selection

Small Stakes

£8.50 Win Bet KINGS TEMPTATION 2/1

£1.50 Win Bet BACH DE CLERMONT 6/1

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