5 Previews
1 Account Bet

Back after a day off yesterday
Bread and butter for two days
Counting down to the weekend
Saturday -Sunday offer a feast
A mouthwatering group of stars
We are back on the account today


Account Bet

Southwell 3.15

SAMOVAR 9/4

Win Bet


9/4 Generally with most firms
No hiding place with this one
Win only in a 4 runner race
Think he will make all and win





Message Bets


Southwell 1.30

£6 Win Bet ARCHIE STEVENS 6/1

£4 Win Bet SOMETHING LUCKY 11/8




Today's Racing

5 Previews
2 Southwell
2 Wincanton
1 Kempton

The Kempton horse should win
But only 2 runners and he is 4/5

I'm giving Southwell a wide berth
Unless a race really interests me
Today there are 2 that do just that

2 Southwell bets
1 on the account
1 just highlighted

SAMOVAR should make the running
If his last 3 races are anything to go by
I don't think anything will catch him

The worry for me is going off too fast
Could well be a horse to trade in running
Bet him at 9/4
Lay him back at 4/6 sounds about right

Future Betting Angles
Has a pretty mundane Rugby bet
But the start of some staked bets
Bets staked to £5 only each day





Tuesday's Review

Yesterday was a needed day off
Just the Tuesday to look back on
And that turned out to be brilliant
The message went W W W W L W
Most winners were decent prices
SIR CARNO was the account bet
He was wobbly in the market
And wobbly in the race as well
But in the end his class just told
That was the reason for the bet
Delighted how he finished his race
I felt another winner was unlikely
But he did us proud on a great day




PROFILES & PREVIEWS



WINCANTON 1.20

5/4 Molineaux, 3/1 Aardwolf, 11/2 Champagne Champ,
10/1 Samson The Man, 12/1 Hardness, 14/1 Pyrios,
20/1 Le Musee, 20/1 Turbotim, 50/1 Attractive Liason,
50/1 East Wing, 66/1 Newquay Cards, 100/1 Mr Magill

2m Novice Hurdle

MOLINEAUX is a 7 year old
So far he is 0-7 over hurdles
His Racing Post Hurdle ratings
Are 109 90 87 112 124 127 127
The 4 past winners of this race
Did figures of 120 106 138 124 in winning
MOLINEAUX would have won 3 renewals
I think this may well be his day
Because his 2 market rivals
The only 2 horses under 16/1
Have never raced over hurdles
And as they have long flat careers
There profile is weakened

January February March
All Novice Hurdles
Any Distance

Horses aged 4
No National Hunt experience
Over 9 previous flat races
Have a 0-61 record in these races
AARDWOLF fails this 0-61 statistic

January February March
All Novice Hurdles
Any Distance
Horses aged 6 or more
No National Hunt experience
Over 17 previous flat races
Show a 1-98 record in recent years
CHAMPAGME CHUMP has this problem
No Bumper or Hurdle runs to fall back on
But a long 25 race flat career instead

MOLINEAUX looks the profile horse
If he has a problem it will be the drop in trip
I'd be far happier if this was over further
He is bred to be a 3 miler after all
That is his one vulnerability in the race
But my angles are against his opposition
And his numbers are good enough to win

Selection

MOLINEAUX 4/5

Win Bet





SOUTHWELL 1.30

11/8 Something Lucky, 5/1 Grand Myla,
7/1 Archimedes, 8/1 Archie Stevens, 9/1 Kingstreet Lady,
11/1 Dapper Man, 14/1 Coiste Bodhar, Novabridge,
16/1 Fly True, 50/1 Knockamany Bends, 66/1 Celerity.

5f Handicap

SOMETHING LUCKY comes here W W W
He was an account bet winner 3 runs ago
He won that day and won his next 2 races

My main worry here is Stall 12 of 12
Not a great draw but not impossible to overcome
My point is why risk betting at short odds
When you know he has the worst of the draw

There are few of these with flaws
Fillies aged 4 do win these races
But they do not that well at Southwell

5f races at Southwell
Run in January and February
Show fillies aged 4 having a 0-20 record
GRAND MYLA has this problem
I don't like her 32 day absence either
Or that she has just 1 run in 118 days
GRAND MYLA is opposed

KINGSTREET LADY is an older mare
She is underraced 1 run since September
ARCHIMEDES has 1 run since October
DAPPER MAN is rejected absent 153 days
I'd see all of these as underraced
ARCHIE STEVENS looks the biggest threat
He could be a big threat to the favourite
Getting weight and possibly better drawn

ARCHIE STEVENS is my selection
But not prepared to commit fully to him
Not from a low scoring stable
On last time Racing post Ratings
SOMETHING LUCKY is well clear
He is down in class as well
I'd rather go down the split stake route

Selection

£6 Win Bet ARCHIE STEVENS 6/1

£4 Win Bet SOMETHING LUCKY 11/8





WINCANTON 2.25

4/6 Drops Of Jupitor, 6/1 Dinos Benefit,
7/1 Jubilympics, 7/1 Rosemary Russet, 9/1 Frozen Motion,
16/1 Inch Lala, 20/1 Solstice Twilight, 100/1 Bonza Girl
100/1 La Madrina.

Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
Only 27 similar races at this time of year

DROPS OF JUPITOR sets the standard
Not sure she is as safe as I would like
Racing Post Hurdle rating of 115
Thats a bit low to select her at a short price
When She also has to step up 5f in distance
You can look at her in different ways
Forgive her last run in a big handicap
Then she could just as easily bounce back

FROZEN MOTION only has 1 lifetime start
Horses with 1 career run
Beaten in that race
Have a 0-30 record in all similar races
FROZEN MOTION doesn't offer enough
DINOS BENEFIT is a mare from a Bumper
All Novice Hurdles
Both Mares only and otherwise
Run over any distance
During January and February
Mares from Bumpers
Running in the last 6 months
1 Career start
Beaten in that race
Have a 0-73 record
DINOS BENEFIT fails this
I'd avoid a mare from a bumper
JABILYMPICS has a chance
She is a player if a couple disappoint

ROSENARY RUSSET is interesting
Well beaten on both runs this season
You have to assume she needed her first run
Next time at Fontwell was disappointing
But she was eased heavily once beaten
It is a track not every horse likes
She may well have gone off too fast
She had some stiff opposition that day
I think she showed some ability there
Perhaps not safe enough for each way
Instead I would split stake this race

Selection

£5 Win Bet ROSENARY RUSSET 5/1

£5 Win Bet DROPS OF JUPITOR 10/11





SOUTHWELL 3.15

11/8 Magic Pulse, 5/2 Samovar,
4/1 Jasi, 9/2 Mount Victoria.

5f Handicap for 3 year olds
Only 4 runners rated 74 71 70 67
Fitness could be the deciding factor

Runs in 2018

Samovar 3
Magic Pulse 1
Mount Victoria 1
Jasi 0

SAMOVER has far more recent runs
He also has the shortest absence as well
Could that fitness edge swing it his way ?

MOUNT VICTORIA is short of runs
She has raced just once since June 2017
JASI has a similar problem
Not only a troubling 96 day absence
But only one race since July 2017

MAGIC PULSE is favourite
No surprise if she were to win
But she is a filly with 1 run in 34 days
SAMOVAR has raced 3 times in that period

SAMOVAR looks best
If you watch his last race
He had a 4/9 favourite in trouble
Made all and set a very fast pace
He may well have gone off too fast
I fancy him to win this on that run

But look at his previous race over 6f
He led and was in front a furlong from home
That was in a far better race than this
I think he should be favourite

Selection

SAMOVAR 2/1

Win Bet




KEMPTON 6.30

8/11 Sacred Act, 5/4 Princess De Lune

This is a Novice over 8f
Only 2 runners
I don't have much choice here

PRINCESS DE LUNE is a filly
She has 3 runs the last 117 days ago

SACRED ACT is a 7yo male horse
He has recent runs
His last 3 Racing Post Ratings
Were figures of 104 106 106
His only rival has done only a 90
He holds most of the cards here

Selection

SACRED ACT 4/5

Win Bet






FUTURE BETTING ANGLE


Long Range Bets (New)

I plan to stake a £5 Bet most days

Not on the account
Just in this column
It will mainly be ante post multiples
Most of these bets will be trebles
Most will be win and not each way

I may stick to a standard format
Leg 1 could be a selection that day
Leg 2 a bet in the near future
Leg 3 will be the Target horse


This is my first Long Range Bet

Long Range Bet 1


Leopardstown 2.25 on Sunday
Total Recall 11/8-6/4

Cheltenham Arkle Chase March 13th
Footpad 6/4

May 5th - 1000 Guineas
Clemmie 3/1

£2.50 Each Way Treble


CLEMMIE is a target horse
Mentioned her many times before
I've 3 months to build up money on her
I will have other Target horses
None spring to mind right now

TOTAL RECALL runs on Sunday
He is a Chaser running over hurdles
He is absolutely thrown in on Sunday
But as a Chaser there is plenty of risk
Why I wanted to start the bet with him
Is because if we place this bet today
We get 4 Places in his Handicap Hurdle
Sunday there may be a lot less runners

FOOTPAD is the 2nd leg
We know he is class
We know he will run bar an injury
We know the Arkle never has big fields
And bar a fall or a bad mistake or bad luck
You know he is going to be nearly winning

Most of these bets will be "win only"
I am not interested in each way bets here
But I am starting with an each way bet

Will these bets make a profit ?

No idea
That is not the point
I don't care if they do or don't
What I am after is two things

A thrilling experience I can enjoy
Where I buy myself some future hope
And a Big Pay day every few months

I want to get to CLEMMIE's race
Needing her to win for a massive payout

There will be long losing runs
But stakes do not need to be high
A good strategy if you follow these bets
Perhaps stop buying a coffee every day
Give it up and save the money for betting
As 2 or 3 times a year it will be worth it



RUGBY UNION

As promised a Rugby Union Bet
Nothing remotely significant here


Six Nations Rugby

11/10 England 7/4 Ireland 10/1 Scotland
16/1 Wales 16/1 France 500/1 Italy

Starts on Saturday
Finishes March 17th

Split Stake Bet

No Grand Slam winner
£5.00 Win (Evens)

England to win the Six Nations
£5.00 Win (Evens)

I am not a big fan
Won't be watching any games
Don't pretend I know much about it
But I have read a lot about it
Listened to some very clever judges
And I fancy having a split stake bet
There is logic and safety in the bet

The Betting clearly tells us
England and Ireland are strongest
It may not work out like that
But they were 1st and 2nd last year
Injuries could be a big factor I read
Another factor is home advantage
England are at home to Ireland
The last 4 times they were they won

The only way this bet can lose money
Is if any of Englands opponents
Manage to win the Grand Slam
Scotland are 25/1 to do that
Wales + France 66/1 and Italy 5000/1
So Ireland (7/2) have the best chance
To do that they have to win every game
Including away at France on Saturday
Not to mention away to England
So if as expected Ireland fail to do that
This bet is likely to either return stakes
With the potential to double your money
Last year England won the 6 Nations
And there was no Grand Slam winner
We are asking for the same to happen

Split Stake Bet

£5.00 No Grand Slam winner (Evens)

£5.00 England to win the Six Nations (Evens)

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