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All a bit too depressive today
Not a very enthusiastic message
Lingfield is Heavy with small fields
Southwell has the same toxic mixture
Kempton is a jumpers bumper card
Just not a pleasant start to the week


No Account Bet



Today's Racing

Can't hide a lack of enthusiasm today
I am excited about some other things

Cheltenham will be 48hr declarations
That will be a great help next week
It will make messages much stronger

Sandown Imperial Cup on Saturday
The entries are out this morning
I may well have a crack at this race


No Message Bets

Just 3 previews to consider

Don't feel I can commit to anything today




Sunday's Review


The best bet was a winner yesterday
SEACHARGE won it by half the track
After the race it was so hard to deny
He should have been an account bet
When I look at the issues in the race
Just amazing that it wasn't favourite
It was a brilliant bet and well spotted
But an abject failure not to stake him
Part of the reason is Southwell's track
Partial loathing and fear of betting here
Then we are out of the habit of betting
Because of the snow and lack of choice
And I wanted to protect a good little run
But they are just pathetic little excuses
For a bet that clearly was understaked
That said I am pleased it won so easily
I hope as many as possible followed me
The other 3 previews produced nothing
That was a bitter sweet message for me



PROFILES & PREVIEWS



SOUTHWELL 2.50

2/1 Zamparelli, 3/1 Peppay Le Pugh,
4/1 Minella Voucher, 5/1 Grow Nasa Grow,
11/2 One Style, 33/1 Rain In The Face.

Novice Handicap Chase over 2m

ZAMPARELLI has a lot to prove
He is a chasing debutant after all
Only had 3 lifetime starts as well
And just one race in just 12 months
ONE STYLE has a lot to prove too
He has raced once in 22 months
That was a 30 length defeat 31 days ago
He has 12st 2lbs to lump round as well
There are fitter lightweights against him
GROW NASA GROW has a chance
But he has not set a very high standard

PEPPAY LE PUGH is no worldbeater
But he is probably the fittest horse
MINELLA VOUCHER is best onside
Chasing debutant but statistically fine

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet PEPPAY LE PUGH 3/1

£1.50 Win Bet MINELLA VOUCHER 6/1





KEMPTON 3.30

5/4 Josses Hill, 11/4 Zubayr,
4/1 Chesterfield, 7/1 Vosne Romanee,
9/1 Junction Fourteen, 50/1 Gannicus,
100/1 Figeac.

Jumpers Bumper

JOSSES HILL is a very talented horse
Classy but complicated
And I don't feel he can be a wise bet
When he pulled up 9 days ago in a chase

Every bumper since 1999
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses pulling up last time
In any kind of race
Running within the last 25 days
Return a 0-63 record
Most of those were not fancied
But none have won with his profile
He looks priced up on reputation

One of two of these can't be ruled out
ZUBAYR has to be the most likely winner
He last ran on the flat at Lingfield
Racing Post Rating of 96 that day
That is a very smart standard
Makes him most likely winner

Selection

ZUBAYR 13/8

Win Bet






WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45

5/4 American Patrol, 4/1 John Caesar,
7/1 Stamp Duty, 8/1 Beepeecee, 12/1 Candesta,
12/1 Etaad, 14/1 Polar Forest, 16/1 Circling Vultures,
33/1 Let Me In.

9f Handicap

BEEPEECEE is topweight and running well
This is also a drop in class for him
His chance is enhanced but other horses
Who may not have the fittest of profiles

CANDESTA is an 8yo absent 74 days
Asking a lot of him to follow up a win
POLAR FOREST has raced once in 132 days
I'd want more runs for a horse aged 8
LET ME IN is also 8 and underraced
He's raced just once in the last 22 months
STAMP DUTY is a 10 year old
Bad enough 31 days off the track
But 1 run in just 82 days is a concern

The middle order of the weights
Is full of horses short of recent runs

AMRERICAN PATROL won last time
He is an unexposed 4 year old
JOHN CAESAR was behind him last time
He may just need another run to get right
JOHN CAESAR is a 7 year old
He has raced twice in just over 4 months
Just felt he needed one more race

ETAAD is running low numbers
He has a chance but there are classier horses
He is inferior but gets weight to compensate
I respect class more over weight
So as bottomweight I am opposing him
And he was sold cheaply last Autumn
CIRCLING VULTURES has not done enough

BEEPEECEE has every chance off topweight
But rather than bet him each way
I'd side with another 4 year old In a split stake


Selection

£6 Win Bet BEEPEECEE 9/2

£4 Win Bet AMERICAN PATROL 6/4





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Generic Cheltenham Statistics

I will be using 11 statistics this year
I have found an extra one to apply



This is our historical record

2012 Festival 18 Negatives 17 beaten
2013 Festival 55 Negatives 55 beaten
2014 Festival 18 Negatives 17 beaten
2015 Festival 65 Negatives 64 beaten
2016 Festival 54 Negatives 51 beaten
2017 Festival 44 Negatives 44 beaten

Overall Total

254 Negatives
248 Lost
Only 6 Won

That is a pretty good record
But I would urge caution
Racing has changed in recent years
There are far more horses
That are lighter raced at the festival
The Ultima Handicap on Tuesday
Has hardly any horses with 13 + chases
So as each festival comes along
There may be less qualifiers
These might be a bit less helpful


Generic Statistic 1

Cheltenham Handicaps since 1994
Hurdles and Chases
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent over 31 days
Have a 1-161 record


Generic Statistic 2

Cheltenham Handicaps Chases since 1994
Non Novice Handicaps only
7 year olds
11st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-21 record so far


Generic Statistic 3

Cheltenham Handicaps Chases since 1994
Non Novice Handicaps only
Horses from Novice Handicap Chases
Have a 1-42 record
They finished in the following positions
4 6 8 F PU 10 PU 12 7 9 13 F 13
7 PU PU 12 14 8 PU 10 4 8 7 12
PU 7 14 UR 14 PU W 11 PU PU
11 PU 2 14 8 4 6


Generic Statistic 4

Cheltenham Handicaps Chases since 1994
Non Novice Handicaps only
Horses from Non Handicap Pattern Chases
11st 3lbs or more
Have a 1-77 record


Generic Statistic 5

Cheltenham Handicaps Chases since 1994
Non Novice Handicaps only
Number of Chase starts

2017 - The 4 handicap winners had 11 3 5 10 chase runs
2016 - The 4 handicap winners had 10 3 15 11 chase runs
2015 - The 4 handicap winners had 9 12 19 11 chase runs
2014 - The 4 handicap winners had 5 8 10 9 chase runs
2013 - The 4 handicap winners had 14 16 6 4 chase runs
2012 - The 4 handicap winners had 6 6 11 5 chase runs

Horses with over 16 Chase starts struggle
Those that do have over 16 Chase starts
Score badly when aged 8 or younger
When running within 3 weeks
When finishing 1-2-3 last time out


Generic Statistic 6

Cheltenham since 2014
Graded Handicap Chases
12 of these races
12 winners had the following Chases runs
11 6 5 3 11 11 9 11 12 9 8 5
All 12 winners were lightly raced Chasers
Horses with 13+ Chase runs were 0-102


Generic Statistic 7

Cheltenham Handicaps since 2012
Chases and Hurdles
Not including the Cross Country
Horses aged 10 or more
They have a 1-165 record

Generic Statistic 8

Cheltenham Grade 1 Hurdles since 1998
Novices and Championship races
Any Distance
Horses aged 5 are 16-377
Those absent more than 68 days are 0-55

Generic Statistic 9

Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Chases
3m or more Since 1997
Horses aged 6
Have a 0-52 record

Generic Statistic 10

Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Chases since 1999
Any Distance
Horses aged 6
Carrying more than 11st
Have a 0-46 record

Generic Statistic 11

Cheltenham Handicap Chases since 2004
Any month
Any distance
Any class
But not cross country races
Horses with 11st 8lbs or more
Absent more than 49 days
Over 10 Chase starts
Horses with this profile were 0-109


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