4 Previews
1 Account Bet

There is a main bet today
It is quite an usual strategy
2 win bets staked to £9
With a win double to £1


Account Bet

Clonmel 1.05 - GRAINEYHILL 10/11

Catterick 2.35 - GOLDEN INVESTMENT 11/2

£4.50 Win Single on each horse
£1.00 Win Double on Both




Message Bets

Clonmel 1.05
GRAINEYHILL 10/11
Win Bet

Leicester 1.15
ROBIN OF LOCKSLEY 13/8
Win Bet

Catterick 2.35
GOLDEN INVESTMENT 11/2
£4.50 Each Way

POINT THE WAY 9/1
£1.00 Saver Bet



Today's Message

Just a quick note about tomorrow
If I can not find any account bets
I might put my Cheltenham bet out

This horse runs before Cheltenham
That isn't ideal for an Ante post bet
I can wait for a better strategic time
As more firms go non runner no bet
But I will probably release it Friday
This will probably be £6 to £8 stake
With the remaining stake given later


No Sand today
Just didn't feel motivated by it


4 Previews
Not bothered about the last one
Highlighting the other 3 bets


Clonmel 1.05
GRAINEYHILL 10/11
Win Bet

I love this bet
Expecting to slice through these
Like a hot knife through butter
I was vainly hoping for some 11/8
That is fantasty as he is generally 10/11


Leicester 1.15

ROBIN OF LOCKSLEY 13/8
Win Bet

Was not going to be a staked bet
At least not as a win single bet
But I could still have used him

£5 on Robin Of Locksley
£5 on Graineyhill
Splits the risk in any acc bet
That was a possible option
Appealed to my wimpish side


Catterick 2.35
GOLDEN INVESTMENT 11/2
£4.50 Each Way

POINT THE WAY 9/1
£1.00 Saver Bet

Much the biggest reward if right
But much the biggest risk as well

In the end
I decided on a Split Stake Bet


Clonmel 1.05 - GRAINEYHILL 10/11

Catterick 2.35 - GOLDEN INVESTMENT 11/2

£4.50 Win Single on each horse
£1.00 Win Double on Both

What I have done here

Sacrificed the £5 Place part
Of the Golden Investment e/w bet

Used that saved £5 for Graineyhill




Wednesday's Review

There were 3 previews to review
Including a winning account bet
Now this has won I must tell you
I get up at 4am on midweek days
Overslept yesterday until 7.30am
I hadn't even looked at the cards
That was a very rare oversleep
So I'm amazed I went for the bet
FLASHJACK won the 1st preview
Our saver and won in a dead heat
Rules for settling dead heat bets
Are half the stake at the full odds
So he becomes a £2 bet at 5/2 SP
That race produced a return of £7
The second preview was a loser
SOUL SILVER only finished 2nd
Correct to oppose that favourite
But didn't save on a rank outsider
SOMETHING LUCKY won easily
He may have only won in a photo
But had a ton in hand at the end
And would've been very unlucky



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


CLONMEL 1.05

15/8 Graineyhill, 4/1 Glen's DD, 9/2 Crack On Corrie,
10/1 Barna Venture, 12/1 Bee A Beneficiary,
16/1 Flamingo Lane, Jimmyjames, Miss McIlroy,
16/1 Oisin James, 20/1 Dorking, 25/1 Rudy Catrail,
33/1 Dollydeschamps, 50/1 Paddytheirishman
66/1 The Jam Man.

2m Handicap Haurdle
GRAINEYHILL should win this
Hopefully like a hot knife through butter
It may not work out this way
But I love his chance in this race

Recently upgraded stables twice
May 2017 left a very poor scoring stable
Had 2 runs for a better stable in August
Then he moved to Gordon Elliot
A Massive step up in stable

GRAINEYHILL ran on Boxing Day
That was his Gordon Elliot debut
A very creditable 3rd in a similar race
That was on very bad ground
It came with a 126 day absence as well
His jockey was an apprentice rider
Who had never ridden a winner before

His Racing Post Rating that day was 101
That was comfortably a career best run
As you would expect upgrading stables
GRAINEYHILL's handicap mark is 91
That tells me he has enough in hand

If you look at his 101 Racing Post Rating
Compare it to all of todays opposition
Below is all their last time out numbers
17 92 67 75 59 40 61 66 89 71 49 0 9
Nothing comes close to his last run


Only 4 horses are under 20/1
One of those BARNA VENTURE is unsafe
He is very inexperienced for this race

GRAINEYHILL has a high class rider
Davy Russel has taken over today
From a winless claiming apprentice

He is a short price
But I just loved his positives
And don't see a horse that scares me

Selection

GRAINEYHILL 10/11

Win Bet






LEICESTER 1.15

5/4 Robin Of Locksley, 6/4 Ballyrock,
5/1 Hansupfordetroit, 16/1 Hill Fort,
20/1 Rocket Ronnie, 33/1 Filatore,
33/1 Go On Henry, 50/1 Silent Doctor.

Selling Hurdle over 2m 4f

BALYROCK is a 12 year old
He has an absence of 200 days
Go back to 2010
Look at every selling hurdle
Any distance
Any time of year
No horse aged 11 or more
Has won absent more than 64 days
Admittedly only 25 tried but none won

ROBIN OF LOCKSLEY is rated 10lbs higher
Yet races him at level weights today
Last time out he was beaten 27 lengths
He was Topweight in a Class 3 handicap
I think he went off too fast that day
I have to prefer him over the 12yo

HANDSUPFORDETRIOT is a 13 year old
Beaten 58 lengths in a Chase last time
That was only 10 days ago
Hasn't jumped a hurdle in 14 months
I can't drum up any enthusiasm for him

ROBIN OF LOCKSLEY is my preference
I think he can outclass these horses
Both of whom have significant flaws

Selection

ROBIN OF LOCKSLEY 13/8

Win Bet





CATTERICK 2.35

3/1 Sun Cloud, 4/1 I Just Know, 13/2 Golden Investment,
13/2 Gonalston Cloud, 7/1 Billy Bronco, 15/2 Point The Way,
9/1 Itstimeforapint, 12/1 Alto Des Mottes, 14/1 Milborough.

North Yorkshire Grand National
3m 6f Handicap Chase
Catterick has 11 past renewals
21 similar races in January

MILBOROUGH is a seasonal debutant
I can't bet him as a 12yo
I'd want at least 2 runs this season
The 11 winners had these recent runs
2 4 6 4 4 1 3 2 2 3 4
Only past winner had 1 run that year
She had a featherweight of 10st 3lbs

GONALSTON CLOUD has 1 run this year
IT'STIMEFORAPINT has 1 run this year
ALTO DES MOTTES has 1 run this season
I'd be happy to oppose these there
GONALSTON CLOUD has topweight
ALTO DES MOTTES pulled up recently
Stepping uo 10f in trip not for me
IT'STIMEFORAPINT is 10 with 77 days off

Weight and absences rarely mix well
January Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 3f or more
Any Class of race
Horses absent over 7 weeks
Carrying 11st 2lbs or more
Have a 1-66 record in these races

I JUST KNOW fails this 1-66 statistic
He has 11st 10lbs with 67 days off
MILBOROUGH also hasthis profile
SUN CLOUD fails this 1-66 statistic too
He has 70 days off and 11st 3lbs
All past winners ran within 61 days
I am looking elsewhere this year

BILLY BRONCO has 2 Chase runs
None of the 21 winners had so few
Comes from a Novice Handicap
Horses from Novice Handicaps are 0-15
Unplaced in that as well
His sire has a stamina index of 7.5f
Hasn't bred a winner past 3m 2f
Too many concerns for me

Shortlist

POINT THE WAY
GOLDEN INVESTMENT

The busiest horses this year
POINT THE WAY has some flaws
Comes from a Novice Handicap
Horses from Novice Handicaps are 0-15
He only has 3 Chase starts as well
11 winners had the following Chase runs
16 24 13 4 4 9 23 9 20 8 8

GOLDEN INVESTMENT is very consistent
Must be the fittest in form runner
Racing post Ratings are good enough
To win this off a rating of 111

Selection

£4.50 Each Way GOLDEN INVESTMENT 11/2

£1.00 Win Bet POINT THE WAY 9/1





CATTERICK 3.10

2/1 Niceandeasy, 4/1 Crackdeloust,
9/2 Pokora Du Lys, 7/1 Astaroland, Romulus Du Donjon,
8/1 Minstrel Royal, 12/1 Danceintothelight, 25/1 Iolani.

Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f

NICEANDEASY is favourite
Do not like the combination he offers
Having under 4 hurdle races at Catterick
Combined with 12st in weight as well
He unseated last time at the 2nd hurdle
He's not had a proper run since November
I wanted to go each way against him
POKORA DU LYS is still work in progress
Inconvenienced by a big drop in distance
DANCEINTOTHELIGHT didn't appeal
ASTAROLANE comes up 3f in distance
Well beaten in both runs this year as well
CRACKDELOUST looks the best option
Several recent and consistent runs

Selection

CRACKDELOUST 4/1

Each Way







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Cheltenham (March 14th)

RSA Chase

Monalee (7) Presenting Percy (7)
Yanworth (10) Dinaria Des Obeaux (16) Finians Oscar (16)
Black Corton (20) Invitation Only (20) Mias Storm (20)
Sutton Place (25) Fountains Windfall (22) Barney Dawn (25)

Just looking at the leading contenders

Recent winners had these Chase starts
5 5 2 3 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
BLACK CORTON already has 10
He looks too exposed to win a RSA
He is also on the small side as well

BARNEY DWAN only has 2 Chase runs
He could come out and win again
But he makes no appeal at this stage
Not from a small yard
No with no Grade 1-2 form

FOUNTAINS WINDFALL has 3 Chase runs
But He Fell in his last 2 runs
Even if he comes out again and wins
I would not touch him in this race
His Breeding stats are not good enough
His sire's never had a Chase winner
That was above Class 3 grade before

YANWORTH is far too risky to trust
His sire was quirky and so is he as well
I doubt he can stay 3 miles here
Said to be going straight to the festival
That will mean he has a 72 day absence
Go Back to the 1989 renewal
Every winner bar Don Poli (72 days)
Won absent no more than 53 days
YANWORTH has no chance of being my bet

FINIANS OSCAR has the numbers
But maybe not the constitution to win
Have doubts about his jumping
The big field could hurt him as well

MIA'S STORM is a mare
SHATTERED LOVE is a mare

Cheltenham Festival since 2007
Mares running in Chases
Return a 0-59 record
Mares running over 2m 1f and more
Return a 0-114 record
I'd need a special mare to overlook that
Neither of these look that right now

DINARIA DES OBEAUX is another mare
She is In the betting but not yet entered
Her numbers are not good enough anyway

SUTTON PLACE is opposable
He has raced just once this season
Even if he comes out and runs again
He will still only have 2 runs this year
17 of the last 18 winners
Had at least 3 runs that season


Possibles

INVITATION ONLY has 2 runs this year
Fell at the 5th on his debut
So really only had just 1.5 runs this year
If he runs and wins again
That has to be borne in mind

MONALEE fell at the 10th last time
That is a worry on his 2nd run
Even if he comes out and wins a race
He will have 2 Chase runs and 10 fences
That may not be enough
It would leave him short of recent runs
He too has other festival options

PRESENTING PERCY looks a big runner
His Racing Post Rating last time
When winning at Fairyhouse over 3m 5f
Was the highest Racing Post Chase rating
Any horse has done this year over 3m 3f +
There are things to consider though
He may well run in the 4 mile race
He will need another run to be safe
As without one he has 101 days off

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