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Limerick 12.00

GIGIPLAN TWO SEVEN 5/2

Each Way

This horse is my best bet
But he has shortened 4/1 to 5/2
At 4/1 he'd have been highlighted
As the days best bet each way
Now he is 5/2 I have a dilemma
Should I go win only or each way
Now down to personal preference
I am putting him down each way


Lingfield 2.55

THREE C'S 100/30-7/2

Each Way

Looks solid enough
Has some in built advantages
Not as confident as the other race
But good enough for a preview



Today's Message


5 Meetings today

Plenty of larger fields again
Not pushing the analysis hard

Future Betting Angles is back
Update of 6 Cheltenham races
Feel like I am up to date now

Should be able to settle down
Make some changes very soon
The best time of year to do this

8 Races Covered for today
6 Cheltenham Festival races


Schedules been a bit manic
Today has put me back on track
Future Betting Angles up to date

Some interesting races today
Will be going with a Saturday bet
Now the schedule is normal again

Would have had a bet today
But market changes spoilt that





Thursday Summary

Missed the Welsh national winner
Wasn't really expecting to get that
Best we did was a saver in second
The favourite Elegant Escape won
I had got him wrong from the start
Questioned his stamina on breeding
So he made me look a bit of a fool
Better that than having no opinion
My second best bet did win his race
Peachey Carneham won at Wolves
He was obviously the safer choice
Wasn't that much more I could do
Given the size of some of the fields




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Lingfield 11.35

11/8 Whinging Willie, 13/8 Dutch Uncle,
4/1 Contingency Fee, 12/1 Don't Cry About It,
20/1 London Grammar.

12f Selling race for Apprentices

Last time out Racing Post Ratings
Show two horses standing out

WHINGING WILLIE did a rating of 75
DUTCH UNCLE did a rating of 72

None of the other runners
Ran a number better than 58
This could well be a match

DUTCH UNCLE is odds on 10/11
Official ratings have him 10lbs clear
So understandable he is odds on
But he has yet to win over this trip
He has also had just 1 run in 274 days
WHINGING WILLIE in the same period
Has raced 10 times now
He may be the second best horse
But he may be more suitable at 12f
And he does look the fitter horse
His inexperienced pilot is a worry
But at the prices he is the bet
Hoping he can exploit his fitness

Selection

WHINGING WILLIE 11/8


Win Bet





Limerick 12.00

4/6 Melly And Me, 5/1 Gigiplan Two Seven, 7/1 Mason Jar,
9/1 Life Isfor Living, 10/1 Lord Schnitzel, 25/1 Wild Rumour,
33/1 Mixed Virtue, 40/1 Rainbow King, 50/1 Castlehume Gold.

Maiden Hurdle over 2m 6f

MELLY AND ME is short
He presented a dilemma

Ran well 2 days ago
He offers fitness and momentum
He should be good enough to win
But there is a temptation to oppose him

MELLY AND ME steps up 6f in distance
He does that with only a 2 day absence

If I look at Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 5f and longer
Any time of year since 1998
Horses from 2 races
Running within 6 days
Return a 0-51 record
That is far from a safe profile

To be objective
Few of the 51 that tried were fancied
So reluctant to call him a negative
But up 6f in trip and a 2 day break
Sits uncomfortably with me
I see him as potentially very unsafe

LIFE IS FOR LIVING has 241 days off
Has not dome enough to support yet

MASON JAR is a 4yo from a bumper
Not sure he did enough 19 days ago
Watched his last race he looks small
Will be be able to cope with the soft
And if you look at his trainers record
She has a modest 6-198 (3%) record
Her hurdle runners are 0-35
She's never trained a hurdle winner

LORD SCHNITEZEL has 384 days off
His trainers runners absent 8 + weeks
Have a career record of 0-53 so far
Can't be sure he will be fit enough

Given the doubts and the profiles
There was only one option I liked
GIGIPLAN TWO SEVEN each way
He has plenty of hurdling experience
His numbers as good as any others
He came last of 6 at Punchestown
But he made the running that day
He was stepping up 6f as well
He met far superior horses than these
And was eased down once overtaken
I think he has good chance of winning

He is not proven on soft ground
That is my biggest worry
But his overall positives
Make him one of my best bets today

Selection

GIGIPLAN TWO SEVEN 5/2

Each Way





Catterick 12.25

6/4 Graceland, 13/8 Foxtrot Juliet, 11/4 Another Theatre,
20/1 Lady Kyria, 25/1 Jessica Rabbit, 33/1 Splash The Cash,
33/1 Watching Over, 50/1 Dream On Dreamer,
66/1 Soeur De Strop, 100/1 Piccalilli Pie,
100/1 Ridgeway Pearl, 100/1 Taras Day.

Mares Novice Hurdle

This looks a 3 horse race

GRACELAND is a smart flat horse
Having her hurdles debut

If you go back to 1999
Mares Novice Hurdles
Run at Catterick
There are only 27 of these races
Horses with no hurdles form
Have a 0-69 record in them
GRACELAND fails this 0-69 record

May not be that simple
Very few of the 69 that tried
Had the raw ability that she has
So I won't be surprised if she wins

I would prefer hurdling experience

ANOTHER THEATRE has 2 hurdle runs
FOXTROT JULIET has 4 hurdle runs

FOXTROT JULIET fell last time
Despite that she is my preference

Plan A

FOXTROT JULIET 5/2 each way
That price may not be available
So going to leave two options

Selection

Option 1

FOXTROT JULIET

Each Way if she is 5/2

Option 2

£7 Win Bet FOXTROT JULIET 9/4
£3 Win Bet ANOTHER THEATRE 5/2

Option 1 is my preference
If the price is not available
Option 2 is the replacement





Lingfield 12.40

5/2 Lady Cosette, 4/1 Elamirr, Enchanting Man,
5/1 Ivory Charm, 8/1 Forty Four Sunsets, 10/1 Woods,
20/1 Elmejor, 25/1 Catalogue, 33/1 Carla Koala,
33/1 Poet Pete, 50/1 Miss Havana, Push Back,
66/1 Laguna Spirit.

2yo novice over 7f

Not many can win this race
ELAMIRR has a tough drawn in 13
Since 2015 horses drawn 13 or more
Have a 1-50 record over 7f here
That winner an experienced 7yo
On his 3rd run down in distance
Perhaps he is being handicapped
WOODS is unraced not safe enough
FORTY FOUR SECONDS has 1 run
His Racing Post Rating well behind
He needs to improve a lot to take this
IVORY CHARM has the same problem
I think one of two will win

LADY COSETTE
ENCHANTING MAN

The market has a clear choice
ENCHANTING MAN has been well backed
He'd appeal in any each way double
If you gave me a free bet on this race
I'd have a split stake win and place bet

£5 Win ENCHANTING MAN 11/10

£5 Place LADY COSETTE 4/5



Limerick 1.05

11/8 Undressed, 4/1 Flemenstorm, 5/1 Kylecrue,
11/1 Laid Back Luke, 12/1 Sonny B, 14/1 Rightville Boy,
16/1 Lilshane, 20/1 Aurora Bell, Capture The Drama,
20/1 Flynsini, 50/1 Man With Van.

Veterans Chase

This preview may be redundant

KYLECRUE ran yesterday
He may not run because of that
As I type he is still in the race
If he runs he is my selection
But he may be pulled out later
No replacement bet appeals

Selection

KYLECRUE 4/1

Each Way







Lingfield 1.45

11/10 Let Rip, 7/2 Skydiving, 11/2 Subliminal,
8/1 Duchess Of Avon, 11/1 Oneovdem,
20/1 Shake Me Handy, 25/1 Spring Ability,
25/1 Viento De Condor, 33/1 Time To Rock,
50/1 Gladden, The Celtic Machine.

8f Novice for horses aged 3 +

LET RIP has the best numbers
But he is a 4 year old
Most similar races go to 3 year olds
He has raced only twice before
He has raced only once in 2 years
You have to wonder if he may bounce
Certainly can't call him a negative
But I would rather have a 3yo
Who has decent recent numbers
And has a bit more experience
ONEOVDEM is the other 4 year old
SUBLIMINAL has 14 days absence
Given profiles and the prices
I would play the race this way

Selection

SKYDIVING 9/2

Each Way





Lingfield 2.55

7/2 Three C's, 4/1 Daring Guest, 5/1 Astrojewel,
5/1 Cape Greco, Malaysian Boleh, 12/1 Little Miss Kodi,
12/1 Satchville Flyer, 20/1 Angelito, Baby Gal,
33/1 Concur, Coral Caye.

7f Handicap

Trappy race
Keen to avoid the lightweights
They are running very slow numbers
Concur - Coral Caye - Angelito - Baby Gal
All seem to lack current quality to take this
SATCHVILLE FLYER didn't appeal
He is better over shorter anyway
MALAYSIAN BOLEH is better over shorter
Both are running low numbers right now

DARING GUEST has been well backed
Ran well last time over a mile
Many felt he did not stay that day
And are encouraged he is back at 7f
He may well win but not for me
DARING GUEST is a very exposed 4yo
He has raced just once in 170 days now
I'd rather have a horse with recent runs

ASTROJEWEL won last time
But she was only a 50/1 chance
Inexperienced and from a low scoring yard
She is not safe enough for me
LITTLE MISS KODI is an older mare
Poor stable and just 1 run in 51 days

CAPE GRECO has a chance
Recent run and just 5 career starts
Not the safest of profiles
THREE C'S is running well
Recent runs and looks the bet

Selection

THREE C'S 100/30-7/2

Each Way





Leopardstown 3.00

7/4 Road To Respect, 5/1 Bellshill, 6/1 Shattered Love,
8/1 Anibale Fly, 10/1 Kemboy, Monalee, 14/1 Coney Island,
20/1 Balko Des Flos, 20/1 Disko, 20/1 Edwulf,
25/1 Outlander, 25/1The Storyteller.

Savills Chase
Formerly known as the Lexus
Grade 1 over 3 miles

Most past winners
Were aged 6-7-8 with recent runs
8 of the last 9 winners had that profile

Horses aged 9 or more
Rarely seem to win this race
EDWULF looks hard to like aged 9
OUTLANDER now too old and exposed
Seasonal debutants score badly
DISKO is rejected absent 419 days
BELLSHILL also races first time out
Appreciate he has a good record fresh
But this is a Grade 1 race after all
He may find this too hard first time
Happy to take on an 8yo debutant

ANIBALE FLY comes from a 2m race
He is stepping up a mile in distance
No recent winner had that profile
I would shortlist the following

Horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Do not have the best record in this
The winners in 2016 2004 2002 did it
But all had several runs that season
Horses with just 1 run this season
Coming from 2m 4f races struggled
KEMBOY has this to overcome
MONALEE also has this problem

Horses with 1 run this season
Have won many recent renewals
But they were all lightly raced
They had 5 7 4 5 6 6 Chase starts

ROAD TO RESPECT has 1 run this year
He has now had 13 career chase runs
He is getting on the exposed side now
I'd rather have a lighter raced horse
BALKO DES FLOW has 14 chase runs
Most past winners are lighter raced

SHATTERED LOVE has a safer profile
He has a couple of runs this year
She gets the mares allowance as well
Comes from a proven trial race
In an open race she is the e/w bet

Selection

SHATTERED LOVE 6/1

Each Way






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Salford City

Current table

Leyton Orient 53 pts
Wrexham 50 pts (Game in hand)
Salford City 49pts
Solihull Moors 47pts (Game in hand)
AFC Fylde 46 pts
Harrogate Town 46pts

Things have quickly turned sour
Salford City have now lost 3 in a row
Hammered 5-1 by Wrexham on Saturday

I could spin it saying they are in touch
Leyton Orient did at least lose as well
That certainly cushioned the blow a bit
Salford are only 5/2 to win the League
All that is true and a long way to go yet
But the last 3 results have been dire
Shell-shocked about how its gone sour
Need to get back winning immediately



PDC World Darts

Gary Anderson won last night
Michael Van Gerwin also won
Both now in the Quarter Finals
Both will be expected to win that
If they do they meet in the semi's



Cheltenham Festival Update



Supreme Novice Hurdle

8/1 Annamix 10/1 Angels Breath
14/1 Al Dancer 14/1 Mister Fisher 14/1 Tornado Flyer
16/1 Quick Grabim 25/1 Didtheyleaveuoutto
25/1 Rathill 25/1 Epatante

The market is still wide open
Slowly starting to warm up a bit
With better novices coming out

ANNAMIX runs today
Finally the favourite is running
Will be odds on and will probably win
He is running in the 2.10pm Limerick

ANNAMIX has raced once in France
Today will be his 2nd lifetime race
ANGELS BREATH has raced once

The last 10 supreme winners
Had 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 hurdle runs

Neither horse has got the time
To reach at least 4 hurdle races
So they will go there undercooked

Only 6 past Supreme winners
Had under 4 hurdle starts

2008 Captain Cee Bee - 2 Hurdle runs
2007 Ebaziyan - 2 Hurdle runs
2003 Back In Front - 3 Hurdle runs
2000 Sausalito Bay - 2 Hurdle runs
1999 Hors La Loi III - 2 Hurdle runs
1998 French Ballerina - 2 Hurdle runs

The last to do it was 10 years ago
Look at how many career starts they had

26 Sausalito Bay
13 French Ballerina
9 Captain Cee Bee
8 Ebaziyan
7 Back In Front
7 Hors La Loi III

They all had 7 or more runs

ANNAMIX will fail this angle badly
ANGELS BREATH for all his talent
Will also fail this angle by some way
So looking at bigger priced options

AL DANCER has 7 runs
He has 3 hurdle runs
He is in prime position
Going to the Betfair Hurdle
Thats a hard Handicap to win
If he wins that he will be favourite

MISTER FISHER won on boxing day
He now has 4 runs and 2 over hurdles
He is also going the right way

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

148 Quick Grabim
147 Aramon
144 Angels Breath
142 Al Dancer
134 Tornado Flyer
131 Mister Fisher
131 Didtheyleaveuoutto

MISTER FISHER needs to improve
His numbers still some way behind
All his form is on flat tracks as well
Another possible problem with him
He may not be his stables first string

ARAMON has now staked his claim
Won 10 lengths yesterday stylishly
That was his 3rd hurdle run
He has plenty of experience too

If the Supreme was run today
AL DANCER would interest me
ARAMON would interest me too
But it is not run today
Much can and will still happen
I just see the favourites as weak
Feel the winner will soon emerge




Arkle Chase

6/1 Lalor 6/1 Dynamite Dollars 7/1 Kalashnikov
10/1 Le Richebourg 12/1 Mengli Khan
16/1 Getabird 20/1 Voix Du Reve 20/1 Cilaos Emery
20/1 Paloma Blue

Last time I covered this race
I had some trainer concerns
Both Lalor and Kalashnikov
Both come from small stables

Racing Post Chase ratings

160 Lalor
157 Dynamite Dollars
156 Le Richebourg
151 Getabird
151 Voix Du Reve
148 Mengli Khan
146 Kalashnikov

LE RICHEBOURG Won on Boxing day
VOIX DU REVE was in 3rd place
MENGLI KHAN was in 4th place

This was a Grade 1 race
They all come from high class stables
Voix Du Reve May have been beaten
But he improved his numbers doing so
Mengli Khan also improved his numbers
I see all 3 horses as potential winners

As long as they get more runs in
MENGLI KHAN has 18 career starts
Thats 5 more than any past 6yo winner
And he will be a 6 year old in 2019
He won't have a perfect profile in March

VOIX DU REVE was just 3rd Boxing Day
But Le Richebourg had more experience
He is far from out of the Arkle running
I still feel the same way about this race

Yesterday

DYNAMITE DOLLARS won at Kempton
KALASHNIKOV was beaten into 2nd

Odds on but I thought he ran very well
He was beaten by a highly rated horse
Losing yesterday doesn't matter much
KALASHNIKOV has now drifted to 7/1
He is now only the 3rd favourite here
I don't feel his chance at Cheltenham
Has gone even after being beaten
But I retain my original worry with him
He will face horses from Top Class yards
His trainer is not yet in that first division

DYNAMITE DOLLARS is from a top yard
Currently entitled to every respect

Still hold my initial view
Regardless of form or numbers
Stay with the Grade 1 trainers here
The experts at Festival Grade 1 winners






Champion Hurdle

11/8 Buveur D'Air 6/1 Laurina 10/1 Melon
10/1 Samcro 16/1 Verdana Blue 20/1 Brain Power

Boxing Day
Christmas Hurdle

1st Verdana Blue
2nd Buveur D'Air

Big shock on Boxing Day
BUVEAU D'AIR was beaten

I don't see this as a major concern
He is a stuffy horse we all know that
Verdana Blue had 5 races since September
She was much fitter and had her ground

Before Boxing Days race
Verdana Blue was 66/1 to win the Champion
She is now down to just 16/1 to win
This feels like an overreaction
Buveur D'Air is the stables number 1
What if the photo had gone the other way
Buveur D'Air would be getting the praise
Verdana Blue would be twice the price
She is unlikely to get her ground as well
First day is always on the soft side
Henderson may not even run her

The Christmas Hurdle defeat
Could be a blessing in disguise
Buveur D'Air has drifted out to 6/4
This puts an each way double in play
I don't feel his chance has diminished

If you can start a double with a winner
He would be a beautiful second leg
It means there is a better range of bets
That would fit Buveur D'Air much better
Than a win single at a very short price




Champion Chase

4/6 Altior 6/1 Footpad
20/1 Sceau Royale 25/1 Min
25/1 Ballyoisin 25/1 Great Field

ALTIOR won yesterday
Beat nothing told us nothing
Couldn't fault him in an easy win

FOOTPAD also ran yesterday
Dramatic race in the end
He faced 2 high class horses

FOOTPAD looked like he had it won
He was going nicely towards victory
He was matched at 1.01 in running
Somehow he got caught very late

That was an unexpected ending
Feel he probably blew up yesterday
Don't think that he was fit enough
Which is no a controversial view
He may have just ran out of fitness

FOOTPAD was pushed out to 8/1
To beat Altior in the Champion Chase
I would be encouraged by that run
That price drift looks an overreaction
Showed far more than he did last time

In terms of his Racing Post Ratings
Footpad did a 164 rating yesterday
His Arkle win was in a rating of 172

Not saying he will beat Altior in March
But I see yesterday as a step forward
He is being laid out for Cheltenham
I am far more positive than negative
FOOTPAD still retains a fair chance





Rsa Chase

4/1Santini 9/1 Delta Work 10/1 Next Destination
11/1 Topofthegame 14/1 La Bague Au Roi 16/1 Black Op
16/1 Vindication 20/1 Cracking Smart

Boxing Day

Kauto Star Novice Chase

La Bague Au Roi Won
Topofthegame 2nd
Santini 3rd

SANTINI was a decent third
On a track that was hardly ideal
He was beaten only 3 lengths
I was quite impressed with his run

Racing Post Chase ratings

159 Santini
159 Topofthegame
159 The Worlds End
156 Delta Work
153 La Bague Au Roi
152 Next Destination
143 Black Op

The numbers are pretty tight
SANTINI comes out joint top
When he was beaten Boxing Day
He was giving the winner weight

SANTINI has now had 6 career runs

Past winners of the RSA
Had the following career runs
10 13 8 8 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
SANTINI is 2 runs short of being a match
He will probably go there with 1 more runs
So he will just be on the inexperienced side

VINDICATION will have the same problem
He too has raced just 6 times beforehand

DELTA WORK will be a 6yo
VINDISATION will be a 6yo
6 year olds have a weak record
They won the 2015 renewal
But that was the only one since 1998
Horses aged 6 are 1-36 in that period

Next Destination has stamina issues
He has not been seen since last year
18 of the 19 previous winners
Had at least 3 runs this season
Next Destination will not manage that

SANTINI is still a huge runner
If the RSA Chase was being run today
I would have him at least as a saver



Cheltenham Gold Cup

5/1 Presenting Percy 6/1 Native River
10/1 Clan Des Obeaux 14/1 Thistlecrack
14/1 Road To Respect 16/1 Might Bite
20/1 Bristol De Mai 25/1 Waiting Patiently
25/1 Bellshill 25/1 Shattered Love

PRESENTING PERCY is still favourite
Despite missing some engagements
He was supposed to run today
But he again misses another target

The last time I looked at the Gold Cup
Made the point about his absence
Being a problem and looking suspicious
I moved from Neutral to negative
May be wrong but this smells wrong
I will be surprised if he wins a Gold Cup

Boxing Day

King George

1st Clan Des Obeaux
2nd Thistlecrack
3rd Native River
7th Might Bite
Fell Bristol De Mai
UR Waiting Patiently

CLAN DES OBEAUX won the King George
Propels him to 10/1 third favourite
Think he has to be a player now
But he still has plenty to prove
Stamina could be one of his doubts

CLAN DES OBEAUX is sired by Kapgarde
This sires runners over 3m 1f and more
Running in Listed and Graded races
Have a 0-15 record so far
None by his sire have won over so far
In any Listed or Graded races
His winners in Grade 1-2 races
Have all been over 2m 4f and shorter
CLAN DES OBEAUX is no certainty to stay

MIGHT BITE looks to have gone
THISTLECRACK is very beatable

MIGHT BITE will be 10 next year
THISTLECRACK will be 11 next year
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a miserable 1-105 since 1992

NATIVE RIVER did little wrong
His chance has not been diminished

If this race was being run today
NATIVE RIVER would be a saver bet
Not convinced I've mentioned the winner
BRISTOL DE MAI is not yet ruled out

The developments over Christmas
Have shuffled the pack a bit
I think it has been a bad week
For the following horses

Presenting Percy
Might Bite
Waiting Patiently

Important trial today

Leopardstown 3.00

Savills Chase (Grade 1) (3m)

ROAD TO RESPECT runs
SHATTERED LOVE runs
BELLSHILL runs

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