4 Previews
1 Account Bet



Account Bet

Doncaster 2.00

WIND IN MY SAILS 3/1

Win Bet



There are 2 possible bets today
Wind In My Sails was one of them

My other option runs this evening
Chester 5.55 Lord Vetinari 3/1 e/w

A toss of the coin which to stake
Wind In My Sails just got the vote
Then it came down to the staking
Whether to stomach 3/1 Each Way
Or go for win bets and use a saver
Bet365 and V. Chandler are 100/30





Todays Message

Sharper message today
4 Previews

Doncaster 2.00
Chester 5.55
Chester 6.30
Chester 7.40


Preview 1 - Doncaster 2.00
Preview 2 - Chester 5.55

Both are high quality work
Clinical & interesting angles


Preview 3 - Chester 6.30
Preview 4 - Chester 7.40

These offer Burglary bets
Dirty Grimy and seedy work


What is often quite sad
The dirtier burglary selections
Are less likely to lose any money

I think all 4 previews
Especially the first 2
Offer sensible logical bets
But could get undone by staking
Choosing each way or instead savers
But that is a habitual risk
And I am happy with the worth
Highlighting 2 of these races


Doncaster 2.00
WIND IN MY SAILS 3/1
Win Bet

Chester 5.55
LORD VETINARI 3/1
Each Way





Either Sunday or Monday
Will make a few strategic changes
Look at what works in the message
Look at what is not working as well
Reconstruct the message a little
Change/swap one or two features
Should make things much clearer




Thursday's Summary

Poor comeback message
I knew it would be rusty
Know half of it was rubbish
Six previews were covered
Got one winner and a place
My novelty multiples failed
I did warn you I had nothing



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


DONCASTER 2.00

7/2 Desert Dream, 5/1 Wind In My Sails, 6/1 Glendun,
13/2 Glacier Fox, 7/1 Whitkirk, 10/1 Glorious Player,
10/1 Golden Guest, 14/1 Fleeting Freedom, Global Pass,
14/1 Off Art, 20/1 Rock Warbler, 25/1 Woody Bay.

8f Handicap

Racing Post Ratings

Recent last time out figures

Wind In My Sails 84
Desert Dream 76
Whitkirk 75
Glorious Player 64
Golden Guest 64
Fleeting Freedom 61
Off Art 57
Glacier Fox 54
Global Pass 49
Rock Warbler 39
Woody Bay 0

WIND IN MY SAILS is well clear
His last 2 Racing Post Ratings 81 84
Are a long way clear of everything else

I don't know much about horse or trainer
But these numbers are quite compelling
And if you look at some of his dangers
You start to see some flaws in them

GLENDUN has not run in 197 days
Male 4 year olds
Absent 150 + days
Over 5 career starts
Return a modest 1-63 record
That winner had 22lbs less weight
Suggests he is an unlikely winner

DESERT DREAM has 1 run in 308 days
That has to be a concern
Throw in Stall 12 of 12 as well
He is a Cast off from a top stable
He will do well to take this race
FLEETING FREEDOM is underraced
Not for me as a 3yo with 1 run in months

GLACIER FOX is a 3yo
He is a seasonal debutant with only 3 runs
That is quite a vulnerable profile
Given draw and trainer too risky

GLOBAL PASS is up from a 6f race
he is not matchable to any winners
WOODY BAY is outclassed
ROCK WARBLER also out of his depth
OFF ART is now an 8yo
His 3 runs this year are modest
Racing Post Ratings of 55 43 57
Thats a long way from some of these

WHITKIRK has a chance
But his 3 career wins were off lower ratings
Best chance comes if others disappoint

GLORIUS PLAYER is unorthodox
He is 3yo down from 10f
He has just 5 runs and absent 15 days
Horses aged 3
Down from 1m 2f
Under 13 career starts
Running within 4 weeks
Return a 0-75 record
GLORIUS PLAYER shares this profile

GOLDEN GUEST is a danger

WIND IN MY SAILS
Seems to face a lot of rivals with issues
Given the edge he has in the numbers
His last 14 races
Were in a higher class than this
He looks quite an attractive bet

Selection

WIND IN MY SAILS 3/1

Win Bet





CHESTER 5.55

3/1 Brigand, 3/1 Lord Vetinari, 5/1 Red Force One,
7/1 Gabrial The Devil, 7/1 Move It Move It, 8/1 Prestbury Park,
12/1 Poet's Dawn, 25/1 Rockesbury.

Apprentic Handicap for 3yo's
Run over 7f and 127 yards

Looked at all 3yo handicaps
Open to any kind of jockey
Run over both 7f and 8f
Run in both June and July
Run in Class 3-4-5 as well
618 similar since 2010

The interesting thing in this race

POETS DAWN - 1 run in 8 months

MOVE IT MOVE IT - 1 run in 7 months

RED FORCE ONE - 1 run in 10 months

BRIGAND - 1 run in 6 months

Half of this field
Seem very short of recent runs
This is reflected in the following profiles

Horses with 8 or more career starts
Having just 1 run this calendar year
Have a 0-52 record since 2010

POETS DAWN fails this 0-52 angle
He has as many as 13 runs now
Suggests he needs more recent runs

MOVE IT MOVE IT also fails this angle
With 8 career starts and 1 run this year
He also has to come from a 6f race

RED FORCE ONE has 1 run in 10 months
He also has a 57 day absence as well
In the 618 similar races

Horses with over 5 runs
Just 1 run this callendar year
Absent more than 38 days
Have a 0-44 record in these races
RED FORCE ONE fails this 0-44 angle


BRIGAND is a slightly different case
Although he has just 1 run in 6 months
He is lightly raced and has 4 career starts
I ran his profile and there were flaws

Male 3 year olds
Just 1 run this calendar year
Beaten last time out
Under 6 career starts
Return a 25-258 record
But those with recent races
Running in the last 19 days
Return a less impressive 1-51 record
Those from 7f or shorter were 0-30
BRIGAND has an unsafe profile
Not a negative but less impressive

My submission is
In an Apprentice Handicap
On quite an unorthodox track
We should be very wary
About horses like the above
Who have raced once in a blue moon

ROCKESBURY is also rejected as well
His numbers are not strong enough
I doubt he actually stays as far as this

I would shortlist 3 horses

LORD VETINARI 3/1
GABRIAL THE DEVIL 7/1
PRESTBURY PARK 9/2
All 3 of these
Have raced 4 times in 2018
Most rivals have raced just once

GABRIAL THE DEVIL is well raced
But he comes from a 6f race
That was 38 days ago as well

Horses from 6f races
Over 9 career starts
Absent more than 26 days
Return a 1-28 record in these races
GABRIAL THE DEVIL's profile is 1-28
That puts him in "shortlist" territory
But he has just 1 extra negative factor
He has raced just once in 94 days now
That weakens his profile

PRESTBURY PARK has 10 runs
Comes up in distance as well
His problem is a 16 length defeat last time
That weakens his profile
His Draw in Stall 8 may not help

LORD VETINARI is a solid runner
You can argue Stall 7 is not perfect
But he is well raced this season
His last run was a career best run
And his trainer has a good record

In 3yo Apprentice Handicaps
Andrew Balding has a 9-43 record
Those running at Chester were 4-7
LORD VETINARI can take this race

Selection

Option 1

LORD VETINARI 3/1

Each Way


Option 2

£7.50 Win Bet LORD VETINARI 3/1

£1.25 Saver Bet GABRIAL THE DEVIL 7/1

£1.25 Saver Bet PRESTBURY PARK 9/2







CHESTER 6.30

6/4 Even Keel, 3/1 Axel Jacklin,
5/1 Ghost Queen, 6/1 Great Scot,
10/1 One To Go, 16/1 Anonymous Blonde,
20/1 Chitra, 50/1 Precision Prince,
66/1 Pink Porrino, 100/1 Sinndarella.

2yo Maiden over 7f

EVEN KEEL has 2 career starts
He has a strong form chance here

The obvious issue is Stall 9
Not a good draw
Can it be overcome

More importantly
Can it be done by a similar horse
Who only has 2 career starts

Go back to 2007
7f races at Chester
Horses with under 3 runs
Drawn 8 or higher
Have a 2-87 record

All 50 since 2010 were beaten
All 63 aged 2 were also beaten
EVEN KEEL Shares this 0-63 profile
That tells me not to trust him
ANNONYMOUS BLOND fails this too

AXEL JACKLIN has good positives
He has the most experience
Fittest horse and running well
He is up in distance though
He has to prove he can stay this far
And recent numbers are not very high

GHOST QUEEN has 2 runs
His numbers are on the low side
Could improve and probably will
But She needs to come on quite a lot
GREAT SCOT is unraced
Significant stable here
Wouldn't be my choice in the race
His 3 main rivals have 2 + more runs

AXEL JACKLIN each way at 5/2
Does look quite an interesting option
Albeit bringing a few question marks


Selection

AXEL JACKLIN 5/2-11/4

Each Way





CHESTER 7.40

9/4 Sound Advice, 5/2 Rene Mathis, 7/2 Call Out Loud,
10/1 Snap Shots, 16/1 Shamlan, 50/1 Celerity,
100/1 Bulge Bracket, Fossa, 200/1 Tink,
500/1 Plastiki.

7f Claimer

This looks a 3 horse race
On Official Ratings just 3 appeal

SNAP SHOTS refused to race last time
Even if he had raced
It would have been his first run in months
His main rivals look much fitter than him

SOUND ADVICE is drawn 11
Clearly that can not be much help
But it has been done before years ago
Highest rated horse but ran badly last time
I just think the frame of the race
Suggests an each way bet is better

RENE MATHIS has an obvious chance
But the percentage bet looks this one

Selection

CALL OUT LOUD 5/2

Each Way






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



World Cup

No Matches Today

There is no column on a Saturday
So I just wanted to reinforce a view
That I like Uruguay against Portugal

They play on Saturday night
My opinion for what little it is worth
Uruguay will qualify from this tie

Uruguay are 25/1 to win the World Cup
I've had a small interest bet on them
To go alongside my bet on Spain at 6/1

Uruguay v Spain final is a 33/1 chance
Think that is getting ahead of myself

England are now in the bottom half
Nobody knows if this is helpful or not
I think we're better against quality sides
In the 2nd round against Columbia
England are 8/13 to Qualify from this tie
I certainly wouldn't be taking that price







Wimbledon

Mens Singles

A personal Strategy


R.Federer 15/8 N.Djokovic 11/2 R.Nadal
7/1 M.Cilic 7/1 N.Kyrgios 14/1 A.Murray 16/1 A.Zverev
16/1 M.Raonic 20/1 JM.Del Potro 22/1 G.Dimitrov
28/1 D.Thiem 40/1 K. Anderson 40/1 K.Edmund
40/1 B.Coric 40/1 S.Wawrinka 50/1 D.Shapovalov
50/1 K.Khachanov 50/1 K.Nishikori 66/1 S.Querrey
66/1 D.Goffin 80/1 J.Isner 80/1 F.Lopez
100/1 H.Chung 100/1 R.Gasquet 100/1

The Market is just too mature
Find it hard to see this years winner

Andy Murray
No chance in my view

Nick Kyrgios
Can win should win wont win

Miles Raonic
Seems too far below the games best

Rafa Nadal

May find the ground too fast
Made a note in the 2017 Tournament
Some ex players were discussing him
They felt he could no longer deliver
On grass given his age and injuries
Remember it made a lot of sense last year
Promised myself to avoid him in 2018

Roger Federer

Sacrilege to say he is overrated
I think he is given messianic coverage
Number 1 seed gets a biased passage
Could win but not bomb proof this year

Novak Djokovic

Getting better after his problems
I just don't see him playing well enough
Especially In France and at Queens
Still a shadow of what he once was
I don't see a Wimbledon champion

Kevin Anderson

Dangerous floater
Could take some scalps
Not out of it if a few disappoint
But in his last 10 Wimbledons
Best performance was in 2009
When he was beaten in the Quarters

Alexander Zverez

Dark horse
Could be an improver
Never been past round 4
Grass not his best surface
And he would need a career best

MARIN CILLIC

Selected him at 20/1 last year
Played Federer in the Final
Played badly got hammered

There were tears and blisters
Maybe their was a good excuse
He went backwards after 2017
But has now come back into form
He won Queens last week

The problem with him
He is 7/1 this year and not 20/1
I just don't know what to expect
When he gets to semi's and finals
Does he have the mental strength ?

On the Positive Side
The World Number 3
Among the elite now on Grass

Should breeze through early rounds
I plan to get a free bet out of him
Back him at 7/1 and see what happens

If as expected he wins a few games
Consider laying him back around 4/1
Before he meets the serious players
Before the pressure becomes an issue

Selection

Planned Free Bet

MARIN CILLIC 7/1

Win Bet
With a view to laying him off
Hopefully in the second week
Hardly the bravest of bets
But doesn't seem a bad strategy






Saturday

Newcastle 2.05

Northumberland Plate


7/2 Withhold 7/1 Amazing Red
9/1 Higher Power 10/1 Lagostovegas 12/1 Natural Scenery
14/1 Lord George 16/1 Time To Study 16/1 Byron Flyer
16/1 Prince of Arran 16/1 Nakeeta 20/1 Island Brave
20/1 Curbyourenthusiasm 20/1 Top Tug, Sir Chauvelin
25/1 Watersmeet 25/1 On To Victory 25/1 Arch Villain
33/1 Soldier In Action 33/1 Clever Cookie 33/1 Cayirli

Class 2 Handicap over 2m
Rarely done this race in recent years
Partly because it underwent chances
In 2016 it moved from Grass to Sand
Which undermined all my statistics
Look at the last 11 winners
9 on Grass and 2 on the Sand

WITHOLD is the market leader
He has a 259 day absence
He looks a very progressive stayer
He won the Cesarevitch last Autumn
Interesting owned by Tony Bloom
That is a horrible absence to face
The last 20 winners of this ran
All ran within the previous 52 days
WITHOLD therefore is not my bet


Since 2007

The last 11 winners

All had the following in common

1) Males aged 4-5-6-7
2) They ran 11-58 days ago
3) Beaten under 10 lengths last time
4) Ran over 1m 3f or more last time
5) Had at least 8 career starts
6) The winners aged 4
All ran within 6 weeks
All had 10-17 career starts

7)The winners aged 5 +
All had 2 + runs that season

The following share this profile

HIGHEST POWER
TIME TO STUDY
PRINCE OF ARRAN
CURBYOURENTHUSIAM
SOLDIER IN ACTION
AMAZING RED

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