Sunday July 29th

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Pontefract 3.35

£8.50 Win Bet Big Country 7/2
£1.50 Win Bet Another Touch 6/1

Wolverhampton 4.25
Lady Of Petra 16/1
Each Way

Uttoxeter 4.45
Grania O'Malley 7/4
Win Bet


None of these bets
Are strong enough to stake
Conditions and message quality
Suggest this is a blank day
The only bet I am having
Just because of the price
Is a small bet on Lady Of Petra
It feels like a tired message






3 Meetings today

Pontefract
Wolverhampton
Uttoxeter

Rain at all 3 meetings today
So expecting ground changes
And quite a few non runners

Not really ideal tracks for us
Especially with the conditions
So no point in being aggressive
Very limited to what we can do

Monday

No Message Tomorrow
Taking a one day Break
Glorious Goodwood Tuesday
Messages for 8 days from tomorrow






NEGATIVES
None Today

FALSE FAVOURITES
None Today



Saturday's Review

Yesterday's account bet got placed
ROYAL FLAG was second each way
With the saver bet finishing in third
That returned 80% of overall stakes
ROYAL FLAG ran very well in the end
Staying on just couldn't catch 1 horse
Would have won in another stride
Happy enough with that performance
He only failed by a diminishing neck

The message had lots to cheer about
We had a 12/1 winner over in Ireland
I was pleased to see Erin win easily
Should really have been previewed
Rather than the disappointing Euginio
Outlaw Torm was an embarrassing bet
But we got the saver so saved stakes
I think there was more good than bad
Never had more than 1 loser in a row
The Main bet placed beaten closely
Overall I thought it was pretty decent




PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Incorporating

Angles @ Observations




Uttoxeter 2.40

ADAMS PARK 10/11-4/5
Has a 12lbs edge on hurdles rating
He has his limitations
But I see no point in opposing him
Not given the pedigrees against him
Or the numbers of his opposition
Ormesher unraced over hurdles
Could well be the biggest danger




Pontefract 3.35

11/8 Gabr, 100/30 Big Country,
11/2 Another Touch, 6/1 Ventura Knight,
7/1 Salateen, 20/1 Secret Art.

Listed race over a mile

Gabr is a 3yo
Ventura Knight is a 3yo

How do 3 year olds do ?
Hard to judge
They last won this in 2008
Not that many have tried though
The 3yo winners all ran within 10 days
Gabr does not do that
Given the weather I'm not convinced
Ventura Knight is a 3yo down 3f
Coming from 11f to 8f far from ideal
Gabr's numbers are not improving
Still must have every chance
But if you look at Gabr's season
He has 2 fewer runs this season
Tnay every one of his opponents
Best guess is an older horse may win

Secret Best - Career best RPR of 102
Some have easily beaten that last time
Suggests he wont have enough class

Salateen is up in trip
Not much evidence that will help

ANOTHER TOUCH won this last year
He has good claims for being a saver

BIG COUNTRY may offer the most
On last time out Racing Post Ratings
He has a 3lbs edge on the field
I'd swayed more to his chance

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet BIG COUNTRY 7/2

£1.50 Win Bet ANOTHER TOUCH 6/1




Uttoxeter 3.45

Long distance Handicap Hurdle
Ennistown ran 12 days ago
His first run in 291 days
Not a safe enough profile
8 horses run but may not later
THEATREBAR 7/2 each way
Would be my choice if all 8 ran





Wolverhampton 4.25

2/1 Blyton Lass, 7/2 Chickpea, 7/1 Lucifugous,
7/1 Racehorse, 8/1 Lady Of Petra, 8/1 Matewan,
14/1 Angel Of The North, 20/1 Chasing Diamonds,
20/1 Ipcress File.

3yo Handicap over 9f-10f
114 similar races July-August
Low quality race

CHICKPEA is a filly
She's raced just once since August 2017
That would worry me on this surface

Fillies running within 51 days
Only 1 run in the last 3 months
Have a 0-30 record in similar races
Far from convinced 1 run will be enough

BLYTON LASS is also a filly
She has raced just twice in 2018
Given a very recent run she is unsafe
Especially on a slow riding surface

CHASING DIAMONDS is a filly
She is absent 119 days
Only 3 runs from a 6f Claimer
She doesn't offer nearly enough
IPCRESS FILE has 108 days off
Too long for a horse with 6 runs

LUCIFUGOUS is the Topweight
He has the best numbers on the race
But two poor runs in a row a concern
So is coming up from a 7f race
Having just 5 days absence

3yo Handicaps over 9f-10f
During May to December
Any Class of race
Horses from 7f races
Over 4 career starts
Running within the last 11 days
Show a predictably poor 0-67 record
LUCIFUGOUS shares this 0-67 profile
Shouldn't select her on that profile

ANGEL OF THE NORTH looks beatable
She's had 3 poor runs in a row
The last a heavy defeat 9 days ago
Her last 2 runs look down to stamina
Have my doubts she stays this far

Shortlist

LADY OF PETRA
MATEWAN
RACEHORSE


LADY OF PETRA is a filly absent 40 days
Fillies with over 5 runs
Absent more than 5 weeks
Return a 0-35 record in similar races
LADY OF PETRA has this problem
But she only fails it by 5 days

She was hammered over 12f last time
No chance she stayed the trip that day
This drop will suit her
Her profile has lots of holes in it
The price compensates for that
Many of her runs can be upgraded
Given how many times she changed trips

MATEWAN has 309 days off
His profile is traditionally fine
Having had 3 runs for a handicap mark
Impossible not to shortlist with this profile
But hard to know what to expect

RACEHORSE has the numbers to win
But comes here after 2 poor runs
I can excuse her Wetherby run
That was in a big field when not settling
Last time he made the running at Yarmouth
May have done a bit too much in front
He was eased once overtaken last time
Good winning chance but there are doubts

Selection

Option 1

£5.50 Win Bet LADY OF PETRA 16/1

£2.00 Win Bet RACEHORSE 5/1

£2.50 Win Bet MATEWAN 3/1


Option 2

LADY OF PETRA 16/1

Each Way

Option 2 for me



Uttoxeter 4.45

6/4 Grania O'Malley, 2/1 Thelunarschooner,
9/2 Kiruna Peak, 6/1 Pottlereaghexpress,
14/1 Sheila Tanist, 25/1 Reason To Believe,
50/1 Bella's Vision.

Mares Novice Hurdle

GRANIA O'MALLEY sets the standard

THELUNARSCHOONER the best backed
She has a nasty 291 day absence

July-August
54 Mares Novice Hurdles
Any distance

Horses absent over 84 days
Have a 2-66 record
Those with under 5 hurdle runs
Have a 0-56 record
THELUNARSCHOONER shares this 0-56 profile

KIRUNA PEAK was beaten 35 lengths 2 days ago
Hard to be enthusiastic about that profile
POTTLEREAGHEXPRESS is unraced
Trained by Jonjo again hard to like

GRANIA O'MALLEY has 9 hurdle runs
His last 2 runs were both career bests
I don't see a safe alternative
The market prefers Thelunarschooner
I don't have enough evidence to agree

Selection

GRANIA O'MALLEY 7/4

Win Bet






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



Senior Open Golf

11/10 Miguel Angel Jimenez
11/4 Bernhard Langer
16/1 Bar 2


Final Day

Current Leaderboard

Miguel Angel Jimenez -9
Tom Pernice Jnr -7
Bernhard Langer -7
Kirk Triplett -7
Stephen Ames -7
5 Players on 6 under


Bernhard Langer shot 1 over
Not the best of day for the German
He is now in joint second place

Miguel Angel Jimenez is 11/10 favourite
Bernhard Langer 11/4 second favourite

Every other player is 16/1 and more
The betting suggests a match
Lets hope it turns out that way

Anyone following my Personal bet
Suggested in yesterdays message
Will be in a very confident position

Gowran Park 1.55 - Erin 7/4
x
Golf - Bernhard Langer 3/1
Golf - Miguel Angel Jimenez 3/1
2 x Each Way Doubles





Monday

Galway Festival

National Hunt course is yielding
Flat course is now Soft
There are about a million entries
So could see some big fields

Galway Trainer Stats

Festival records only

Dermot Weld 68-282
Willie Mullins 48-198
Gordon Elliot 3-153

This is the Galway meeting
That Gordon Elliot scores badly
He saves all his best horses
For the September Galway meeting
Where he has a brilliant 16-76 record

He has a miserable 3-153 record
Has had 3 winners in the last 2 years
But these came in undistinguished races
And he chucked 68 runners to win them
Things can and do always change
But history shows at this meeting

Trust Dermot. Trust Willie
Don't trust Gordon Elliot




Tour De France

Geriant Williams has now won
Unless he suffers a fall tomorrow
Winner for the very few of you
Managing to get Hills 11/4 each way





A Very Strange Certainty


Politics

Next Liberal Democrat Leader

50% of Stakes - Layla Moran 3/1

50% of Stakes - Jo Swinson Evens

Only these firms are betting

Ladbokes
Betfair
PPower
Corals
Betway


Unusual Bet
Vince Cable is current leader
We do not know when he will leave
Could be very soon or some time away
But the clock is ticking fast for him

There was a meeting last Friday
Private meeting according to reports
To have him replaced as leader
Said to have ideally been Layla Moran
No idea what happened in that meeting
But there will be a change at some stage

Moran 3/1 then becomes even money
Jo Swinson will return the full stakes

Potential future Lib Dem Leaders
Come from a reasonably small field
None of the usual contenders
Make any appeal in a race few can win

Extremely likely they will go female
Rebrand a bleak old fashioned image
In an attempt to re-energise the party
Both ladies are also fierce remainers

Many see the party on it's death bed
Static 7% poll numbers and 12 MP's
The knives are out for 75yo Cable

When Tim Farron left this position
Jo Swinson was 4/9 favourite to win
Vince Cable was 4/1 second favourite
On Cable decided to stand for the job
And he won without having any ballot
They will not make that mistake again
I think this is earmarked for a Female
Obviously anything can happen here
There is talk of a new remain party
But I don't see this bet getting beat

If I didn't run this service
Or Foot and Mouth shut Racing down
I would go on a 3 day driving break
Visit every Coral-PPower-Ladbrokes
Have this bet in every shop I could find

It will win
With virtually nobody betting it !!

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