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1000 Guineas day
That is among 7 previews
Ignoring all the National Hunt
Nothing there looked relevant
Not on good terms at Dundalk
So this is a flat based message
Before a Bank Holiday Monday
Sunday is deliberately gentle
Aiming for a Monday main bet.


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Today's Message

7 Previews
4 Hamilton
3 Newmarket

The 1000 Guineas

Always less clear than the 2000g
I have gone for a win bet + saver

Laurens 10/1 win
Happily 9/4 saver

Not confident about the race
Not about much else this Sunday

After a Saturday
Before a Bank Holiday
I prefer a quiet Sunday

This one has some interesting bits
It has some decent prices as well
But it doesn't provide a strong bet
And it's more speculative than most

Main focus are betting the fittest horses
In horrible races that can't be fully trusted


Most likely winner is a short price

Hamilton 4.30 - Valentino Dancer Evs

So I am going for the opening preview
As today's best bet
Even if it is unpleasant staking

Today's best bet

Hamilton 1.30

£5.50 Win Amazing Grazing 6/1
£2.50 Win Laughton 3/1
£2.00 Win B Fifty Two 4/1


Saturday's Summary

I like the catchphrase "Trust Aidan"
The phrase is a bit tongue in cheek
Most of the time you can trust him
They were on manoeuvres yesterday

SAXON WARRIOR won the Guineas
I suspect they knew he was the one
The market did give us fair warning
But how could be be 9/1 last week
SAXON WARRIOR was a place saver
He was never really on my shortlist
But at least he did make the staking
I had got the race wrong before that
But at least it saved a losing preview

Aidan O'Brien then pulled a fast one
I liked ATHENA e/w in the Cork 3.10pm
She was ominously weak in the market
I did remark on that in the message
We got all the smart negatives beaten
And she was an obvious bet on paper
But the O'Brien 3rd choice won easily
Flattering hacked up 10 lengths at 14/1
And got some quotes to win the Oaks
I am confident that was a perfect plan
Information almost impossible to know
I do love the stable as I can trust them
But they do put everyone away at times
I bet Mrs O'Brien was on Athena as well
We did absolutely nothing wrong there
Just walked into a Coolmore bear trap
ATHENA likely saver for another day
Confident she just did not run on merit

OASIS CHARM was an excellent winner
Albeit in the less important paragraph
No joy with The Warrior or Judicial bets
Even if they were both unlikely winners
SONG OF THE SKY was the main bet
Disappointed me finished only in third
I said I prefered her as an each way bet
But the price was not there to do that
Broke in last place from stall 1 hurt her
But she was staying on well at the end
I suspect the trip probably just beat her
She may well want another 1-2 furlongs
And I predict she will win next time out
VERNI won a Uttoxeter Handicap Chase
That broke up a couple of losing bets
Not a big price but a very welcome bet
The message went out with a whimper
It didn't cope as well as I had expected
I could have saved more than one loser
Going each way even at awkward prices


PROFILES & PREVIEW




HAMILTON 1.30

3/1 Laughton, 7/2 B Fifty Two,
5/1 Nuns Walk, 6/1 One Boy, 8/1 Amazing Grazing,
10/1 Economic Crisis, 12/1 Bronze Beau,
12/1 Oriental Splendour, 20/1 Majeste.

5f Handicap

LAUGHTON presents a problem
Can I rely on this well treated horse
He has dropped in the handicap
He now has a career low mark today
Part of me thinks he is thrown in
But I have trusted him before
And in better races and he let me down
His profile in this race is average
And his numbers whilst good enough
Suggest he is better on faster ground
You'd imagine it is drying out fast
And he has to be at least shortlisted
But been here before with him
Relying on him is not an ideal situation

NUNS WALK is wrong
Fillies aged 4
1 run this season
Under 15 career starts
Have a 0-28 record in similar races
NUNS WALK is not my choice
ECONOMIC CRISIS doesn't appeal
MAJESTE is an unlikely winner
BRONZE BEAU out as a 11yo debutant
ORIENTAL SPLEENDOUR is a 6yo
With 1 run this year others are better

ONE BOY has 2 runs this year
Several have far better numbers
Can he come good after 2 runs
When beaten 7 lengths in both
My angles say probably not
Horses aged 7 or more
Beaten 6.5 + lengths last time
Running within 25 days
With 1-2 runs that season
Return a 0-65 record in similar races

B FIFTY TWO is the class horse
He is a 9yo who won last time
Not ideal asking a 9yo to follow up
But it has been done before
He likes a small field as well
He has to be shortlisted

AMAZING GRACE has a big chance
Runs this year and profile safe

Shortlist

AMAZING GRAZING
B FIFTY TWO
LAUGHTON

This interested me

Runs in 2018

8 Amazing Grazing
3 Economic Crisis
2 Laughton
2 B Fifty Two
2 Majeste
2 One Boy
1 Oriental Splendour
1 Nuns Walk
0 Bronze Beau

AMAZING GRAZING has a clear edge here
On the other hand he did have that last time
And was still beaten by B Fifty Two
There are a few minor concerns
Yet to win on turf and most form on sand
Wouldn't be my first choice of stable
Drawn 9 of 9 may or may not suit

Happy with my shortlist
Not sure how far I can trust any
AMAZING GRAZING is the fittest
So he is the number 1 option
Could go each way on any of them
But not sure how safe that would be
So I would split stake this race instead

Selection

The following staking means..
Amazing Grazing is a bet just over 11/4
With money back on either of 2 horses

£5.50 Win Bet AMAZING GRAZING 6/1

£2.50 Win Bet LAUGHTON 3/1

£2.00 Win Bet B FIFTY TWO 4/1





NEWMARKET 1.50

3/1 Adamant, 6/1 Duke Of Bronte, 7/1 The Grand Visir,
8/1 UAE Prince, 10/1 Celestial Spheres, Reshoun,
10/1 Wolf Country, 11/1 Maori Bob, 16/1 Alqamar,
20/1 Across The Stars, Al Hamdany, Oasis Fantasy,
25/1 Sofia's Rock, 33/1 Eddystone Rock, Grey Britain.

12f Handicap
Not a safe race to commit to
My angles just don't excite me
And there are just 15 runners

ADAMANT has a positive profile
Probably a bit too short at 3/1
I'd have preferred 4/1 each way
But I see few better options here

DUKE OF BRONTE also a positive
On paper just as strong a chance
ADAMANT has 9lbs less weight
And is from a higher class stable
I'd rather rely on the better stable
ADAMANT should improve more

THE GRAND VISIR is unsafe
4 year olds from 3yo handicaps
Do win similar races during May
In fields of 13 or more are just 1-74
Does not have a safe enough profile
A few of them have nasty absences
Makes the race less attractive to do
WOLF COUNTRY has 73 days off
Combine with topweight a tough ask
CELESTIAL SPHERES similar issues

UAE PRINCE is a definite positive
The 2013 winner had a similar profile
I would split stake this race

Selection

£5 Win Bet UAE PRINCE 8/1

£5 Place Bet ADAMANT 4/5






HAMILTON 2.35

9/2 Starplex, 6/1 Archippos,
6/1 Donnachies Girl, 6/1 Fire Fighting,
10/1 Corton Lad, 10/1 Kensington Star,
12/1 Bear Valley, Great Fighter,
14/1 Bolder Bob, Euro Nightmare, Tor.

1m 5f Handicap
Too many runners
Far too time consuming to do
Over a strange course and distance
Normally I wouldn't entertain the race
Just wanted to mention 1 horse
Just noticed some things I like

FIRE FIGHTING 7/1

Look at number of runs in 2018
FIRE FIGHTING has 8 runs
All his rivals have 3 or less
He is easily the fittest horse

FIRE FIGHTING is topweight
He is a 95 rated horse
Facing a 0-88 class field
You can argue he has a class edge

No idea about the opposition
Not enamoured by his draw in stall 1
There is virtually no draw evidence
Had I done the race properly
I would certainly have shortlisted him
Chances are I'd have selected him
As he has enough positives

FIRE FIGHTING 7/1

Maybe a small win bet






NEWMARKET 2.55

5/1 Mr Lupton, 6/1 Ekhtiyaar, 8/1 Aeolus,
8/1 Eastern Impact, 10/1 Magical Memory, Scorching Heat,
10/1 Victory Angel, 12/1 Gifted Master, 12/1 Medicine Jack,
14/1 Captain Colby, 16/1 Baron Bolt, Tis Marvellous,
20/1 Ice Lord, Rebel Surge, 33/1 George Dryden, Swift Approval.

6f Handicap

12 Renewals
33 Similar races in May

Never done this race before
MR LUPTON won this in 2017
EASTERN IMPACT was second
They were drawn 4 and 6
Happy with Stalls 2-14 here
Higher draws are a bit too extreme
REBEL SERGE is rejected drawn 16
And as a mare starting 66/1 last time
CAPTAIN COLBY is rejected drawn 15
He is a 6yo with 1 run this season
No horse older than 5 years old
Has won this particular handicap
Without at least 2 runs this year
ICE LORD is a 6yo seasonal debutant
In 33 similar races these types are 1-56

Older horses do not score well
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-41 record in this race
In the 33 similar races at all tracks
Horses aged 7 or more are 4-118

Horses aged 7
Just 1 run this season
Have a 1-31 record in this race
EASTERN IMPACT has this profile
AEOLUS also shares this profile

EASTERN IMPACT is well treated
But has not won since 2015 now
He was 2nd last year off a higher mark
But had more warm up runs in 2017
He could win but an average profile
And his age and older are 0-41 in this
AEOLUS has similar challenges
His win last time pushes his rating up
He needs a career best to take this
SWIFT APPROVAL is out of form
GEORGE DRYDEN doesn't offer much

Horses aged 4 and 5
Who had raced this season
But absent more than 4 weeks
Have a 0-48 record in 33 similar races
TIS MARVELLOUS fails this absent 80 days
MR LUPTON fails this with 43 days off
He won this last year with a shorter break
Just 1 run this year and over 6 weeks off
Does weaken his profile a bit
GIFTED MASTER is 5 absent 37 days
He also fails the above 0-48 statistic
He's spent all his career in conditions races
This is the first handicap he has raced in
And I don't see him defying a mark of 109
BARON BOLT is a seasonal debutant
Has only ever won in small fields
Drawn 14 as well he looks vulnerable

Seasonal debutants aged 4
Had a 6-61 record
The 6 winners had the following runs
10 9 7 13 10 6 8

SCORCHING HEAT (10 runs) is a nice fit
My problem with him is relying on his trainer
And 274 days off is a long enough time

VICTORY ANGEL has a similar profile
As a 4yo debutant with 9 career runs
He does have positives on his side
Not keen he comes from a 3yo handicap
the 4 year olds doing that were 0-20

May
Class 2 Handicaps
Since 1998
5f 6f 7f
Horses aged 4
First time out
Coming from a 3yo handicap
Have a 0-41 record
VICTORY ANGEL fails this 0-41 record
That stops him being shortlisted

EKHTIYAAR is quite sexy
He is a 4yo with 8 career starts
The winners aged 4 in similar races
Who had won with 1 run that season
All had at least 15 previous races
In 33 similar races
Horses aged 4
Under 15 career starts
1 run that season
Have a 0-42 record
EKHTIYAAR fails that 0-42 profile
That seems a bit brutal and unexpected
These types have struggled in 5f-6f races
But have won plenty of 7f races
My angles say don't select him

MAGICAL MEMORY has a chance
Classy and has 2 races this season
This is his first run in a handicap since 2015
He has a tough rating of 109 to overcome
The 12 winners of this race
Had these official ratings
104 107 101 86 85 84 102 96 90 96 81 93
MAGICAL MEMORY's rating of 109
Is higher than all past winners of this
Wouldn't surprise me if he has other targets
From a stable I don't trust not for me

MEDICINE JACK does have some flaws
He has 6 weeks off after winning last time
But thats forgivable as he's lightly raced
His wins have come in smaller fields
Bit of an unknown quantity in this race
I don't think I can rule him out at all

Tough one this
Bit surprised at my shortlist
But optimistic
And feel the staking works
As just 1 placing returns stakes

Selection

£2.50 Each Way SCORCHING HEAT 12/1

£2.50 Each Way MEDICINE JACK 12/1






NEWMARKET 3.35

5/2 Happily, 5/1 Soliloquy, 13/2 I Can Fly, Wild Illusion,
15/2 Laurens, 12/1 Anna Nerium, 12/1 Dan's Dream,
14/1 Altyn Orda, Liquid Amber, 25/1 Madeline,
25/1 Sarrocchi, 25/1 Sizzling, 33/1 Vitamin,
40/1 Billesdon Brook, Worship.

1000 Guineas

Should have been Clemmie today
She would have been 5/4 in this race
Lets not get too bitter about that

WILD ILLUSION looks wrong
With Monsun as the sire of the dam
He has a stamina index of 12.2f
She just looks bred more for the Oaks
Throw in Stall 1 she looks too risky

ALTYN ORDA was 2nd in the Nell Gwyn
The sire has Group 1 winners over 5f-6f
But none have won over 7f and more
All 14 at a mile or more were beaten
As she was in her trial race for this
Can't have her on breeding

DAN'S DREAM looks an unlikely winner
Doubt she is bred to win a Guineas
LIQUID AMBER only has 2 career runs
Rceent winners had the following runs
4 5 5 4 7 13 3 5 2 8 5 6 5 5 4
Too inexperienced on paper
Drawn 15 of 15 may exposed that too

ANNA NERIUM won the Free handicap
Deserves her place but not sold on her
She was only 25/1 to win that race
She only had 8st 11lbs
She was getting weight from everything
She isn't a big horse either

HAPPILY could be the one
No reason why she can't win

I CAN FLY is blossoming right now
But well behind on the numbers
She did get beaten in a trial this season
She has lost her last 2 races as well
Ryan Moore has also rejected her
But she is trained by the master

SOLILOQUY is solid enough
She has won a trial this season
3 runs is the bare minimum for me
And she wasn't originally entered
So I just wonder if she has the class
When push comes to shove in this race
Do you want Coolmore or Godolphin

LAURENS was top class last year
Her numbers are very strong
Connections may not be very sexy
She was my original each way bet
But with 15 runners not that sure now
I'd rather have a saver on HAPPILY
For obvious reasons from Coolmore

Selection

£7 Win Bet LAURENS 10/1

£3 Win Bet HAPPILY 9/4




HAMILTON 3.45

7/2 Rapid Applause, 9/2 Khelman, 7/1 Ma Fee Heela,
10/1 Imagine If, 11/1 Sfumato, 12/1 Dandy Highwayman,
12/1 Dirchill, Inexes, 14/1 Munfallet, 16/1 Alexandrakollontai,
16/1 Danish Duke, Giant Spark, 20/1 Mininggold,
25/1 Full Intention, Logi.

6f Handicap

15 runners
Far from my comfort zone here
Not much interest in the race
It looks too dangerous to me
There are angles in this race
That will offer a shortlist

High draws worry me
Horses drawn in Stall 10 or more
Have a 0-23 record in this race

If I look at 6f races here
Horses drawn 12 or more
Have a 3-79 record
All 3 of these winners
Ran within the last 20 days

If we look at 6f Handicaps
Class 3 or lower at Hamilton
Horses drawn 12 or higher
Have a 1-59 record

So I want a low draw
And a recent run as well

That leaves 7 options
I also want 2 or more runs this year
Hamilton 6f Handicaps like this in May
Over 6 runners
Horses with 11 or more runs
Just 1 run this season
Return a 0-37 record
My shortlist is now this

Shortlist

These are in order of preference

4th MA FEE HEELA 5/1
3rd RAPID APPLAUSE 11/4
2nd DIRCHILL 7/1 out to 12/1
1st IMAGINE IF 14/1

Ma Fee Heela is 4th choice
Rapid Applause is a saver option
Dirchill looks interesting
Imagine If looks decent value
As he has most runs this season

Selection

Small Stakes

IMAGINE IF 12/1

Each Way





HAMILTON 4.20

Evs Valentino Dancer, 3/1 Polly Glide,
7/2 Heirslookingatyou, 12/1 Doon Star,
14/1 Zig Zag Zyggy, 33/1 Lait Au Chocolat,
50/1 Sunader, 66/1 Dubai Shen,
66/1 Land Of Grace.

8f Maiden

VALENTINO DANCER
Looks the only sensible selecton
Because of flaws in his opposition

POLLY GLIDE is a 4yo filly
She has not raced in 317 days

Maidens in May
Open to 3 year olds
Any distance
Fillies aged 4
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-85 record in these races
POLLY GLIDE fails this angle

April May June
Maidens open to 3 year olds
Fillies aged 4
2 or more career starts
Absent more than 56 days
Return a 0-156 record
Those starting under 10/1 were 0-17
POLLY GLIDE shares this profile

ZIG ZAG ZYGGY didn't appeal
Have my doubts he will stay this far
Hammered at 50/1 last time as well
LAND OF GRACE is a debutant
Surprised if she stays without experience


HEIRSLOOKINGATYOU is unraced
No reason why he can't win first time

VALENTINO DANCER should take this
Unless an unraced horse is decent
He is certainly the most likely winner

Selection

VALENTINO DANCER Evens

Win Bet

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