3 Previews
1 Account Bet



Account Bet

Windsor 5.40

AGUEROOO 7/2

Each Way

7/2 Generally






Today's Message

3 Previews
Ayr 2.30
Worcester 3.20
Windsor 5.40


1 Account Bet

Windsor 5.10

AGUEROOO 7/2

Each Way


1 Highlighted Bet

Ayr 2.30

VALLARTA 3/1

Each Way





1 Future Betting Angles

US Open Tennis

Starts August 29th

Simona Halep 10/1-11/1-12/1

£4 Win
£1 Place

12/1 Hills Betfred Skybet
11/1 Independants
10/2 Elsewhere

No Negatives



Plans This Week

This is the 12th message in a row
Starting to feel that staleness now
There is some fraying at the edges
Will have to drop a day quite soon

Thursday would be the perfect day
But there is a big Newmarket card
The Duchess is 50 on Wednesday
Have to go to her parents house
Having a Chinese takeaway for 10
We are too far away for a delivery
So I have to pick this up at 6.30pm
The other 9 people having the meal
Have no interest in England's game
Her dad passionately hates football
Little chance of any Televisions on
I may just have to find a dark corner
So if there is a Thursday message
It will probably be affected by this





Message Changes

Introduced these a week ago
Too early to draw conclusions

Last week was a good week
3 Account Bets
2 Winners
1 Loser

Could have been much better
The each way double on Friday
Was not staked because of prices
Both of those horses won
They could have been staked

So too could Lexington Place
He also won unstaked yesterday
Completely down to price going
Might have been 5 bets 4 winners

My form last week was excellent
This wasn't down to the changes
It was down to shorter messages
Which helped me in this heatwave
And allowed me to get momentum

The Account

Giving it an intervention now
Been more active since the changes
It will take time for this to flow properly
A few people think it's easier than it is
There are a lot of possible bets lost
Down to prices or market problems

Angles & Observations

Nothing like I want it quite yet
Will take more time to master it
The races I discuss in the column
Should look nothing like previews
But they do and that is a problem
This is work in progress right now

Negatives

We probably should change it
Bets at 5/4 and below are rare
Past experiences also tell us
Certain negatives drift wildly

May be a more sensible idea
To call them False Favourites

A List of races each day
Where the favourite is wrong
Or looks completely unsuitable
When a good enough negative
To go with a bet against those

Future Betting Angles

Feedback tells me it is popular
Has enormous potential for us
Finding content is the problem
It is not a sports betting service
There far fewer ante post races
Bookmakers make limited effort
Not always easier to find content
But we seem to be managing it.



Negatives

None Today






Sunday's Review

Did not get much wrong yesterday
In fact didn't get any horses wrong
My best Lexington Place won at 5/4
He was 3/1 early but the price went
Briefly crossed my mind as a win bet
But rarely easy to fully trust and 8yo
A price crash robbed the account
But glad he won for those with him




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


AYR 2.30

5/2 Your Pal Tal, 4/1 Semana Santa,
5/1 Vallarta, 6/1 Brendan, Cheeni, 8/1 Allnite,
10/1 Silvana Maria, 14/1 House Of Cards,
25/1 Goninodaethat.

VALLARTA hasn't won for 14 months
He was rated as high as 72 back then

Now he has a rating of only 58
He is Topweight in a 0-55 handicap
He should be able to win a race this bad

He's been running himself fit this year
This is now his 6th run of the season
I am hoping he has reached fitness now

VALLARTA was well beaten last time
But he was eased once beaten
His rivals had the following official ratings
76 75 63 72 56 70
Today he only faces a 0-55
He shaped well at Wetherby before that
Prior to that at Hamilton badly drawn

His opposition look modest

YOUR PAL TAL is an 8yo
He has not raced in 68 days
He's raced once in only 122 days
He could easily be short of runs
SILVANA MARIA has an unfit profile
GONINODAETHAT is a 10yo
Just 4 runs this year with poor figures
Suggests he hasn't reached fitness
BRENDAN ran yesterday over 5f
Can't rule him out but unlikely winner
SEMATA SANTA is a mare from a 5f race
With a poor 1-26 strike rate she's beatable
CHEENI is another exposed older mare
She has a modest 1-28 career record
Her lifetime best Racing Post Rating is 52
That shows she is a very modest sprinter
But her numbers are consistently ordinary
HOUSE OF CARDS is a 3yo filly
Lightly raced starting huge prices
She just hasn't done enough yet
ALLNITE another lightly raced 3yo
Downgraded yard and a low scorer

VALLARTA may have too much for these

Selection

VALLARTA 3/1

Each Way





WORCESTER 3.20

11/8 Holryale, 15/8 Knighthood,
9/2 Ask Robin, 7/1 Play The Ace,
16/1 Rockinrolldixie.

2m 4f Novice Hurdle

HOLRYALE sets this standard
Won a 2m 4f Novice last time
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
113 109 112 112 117 117
Should be enough to take this
When you consider his rivals

KNIGHTHOOD is a hurdling debutant
He is only a 4yo from a bumper

July has 194 Novice Hurdle
Run over any distance
Horses from bumpers were 4-125
Those aged 4 like him were 0-17
Hardly an encouraging profile

ASK ROBIN is unraced under rules
In 194 similar races in July
Unraced horses are 1-87
The 1 winner was older aged 7
Hard to bet an unraced 6yo
Against a last time hurdle winner
PLAY THE WAY is running badly
The favourite should win this

Selection

HOLRYALE 5/4

Win Bet





WINDSOR 5.40

7/2 Letmestopyouthere, 9/2 Essaka, 7/1 Aguerooo,
7/1 Time Medicean, 8/1 Impart, 10/1 Executor,
12/1 Black Truffle, 14/1 Mistry, Picket Line,
16/1 Perfect Pastime, Pretty Bubbles,
25/1 Ocean Temptress, Pharoh Jake.

6f Handicap
0-67 Class
Apprentice race

AGUEROOO is well treated

Whilst his best numbers are on sand
I don't see him as best on sand
His All weather rating is 84
His Grass rating is only 64
He has a 20lbs lower rating

He won his last 2 races as a 2yo
He won his first race as a 3yo
That left him badly handicapped
He was rated as high as 94 at that stage

Easy to understand what happened next
Hit a sustained losing run on sand + grass

AGUEROOO is now rated only 64
During 2017 he dropped from 94 to 74
During 2018 he dropped from 74 to 64
During these two years he was 1-19
Has only won a Claimer since 2017
But his mark has dropped 30lbs

If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
That were achieved only on Grass at 6f
67 61 78 84 79 64 67
They suggest a rating of 64 is lenient

I'd argue these horses lack fitness
Executor - Perfect Pastime - Time Medicean
Misty is running very low numbers
Pharoh Jake is wrong and a 10yo up in trip
Black Truffle is poor and better at 7f
Ocean Temptress is not fit or in form
Picket Line could pop up but unlikely

IMPART downgraded stables in 2018
Claimed form 6f his form isn't progressive
He is up in trip and no more than a small chance

PRETTY BUBBLES is well handicapped
But a 9yo mare hammered last time
Sweet and Sour profile

ESSAKA has a chance
But his numbers are consistently average
His Career best Racing Post Rating
Was a figure of 67 achieved back in 2015
Not impressive after a 49 race career
AGUEROOO did a 77 rating just 3 runs ago

LETMESTOPYOUTHERE has a chance
Strong claims on paper with some doubts
Both career wins and his best numbers
Come in small field races for starters
In fields of 7 or more
He has a 0-18 career record
No surprise as he is not a big horse
He may find this bigger field a problem
When you factor in he is Drawn 1
And has an 18yo Italian girl riding him
With just 3 races under her belt so far
He also has a 0-23 record over 6f

AGUEROOO looks ready to strike
Enough of his rivals are questionable

Selection

AGUEROOO 7/2

Each Way





ANGELS & OBSERVATIONS


Worcester 3.55

BEACH BREAK 2/1
He looks the safest choice
Maybe the only viable option
Tommy Hallinan a possible saver 4/1
Thats workable at 2/1 and 4/1
BEACH BREAK also appeals
In an each way double bet too

Windsor 8.10

Percentage bet in this 2yo Novice
KINGS SLIPPER 5/2 Each WAY






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Today's Bet

US Open Tennis

Starts August 29th

SIMONA HALEP 10/1-11/1-12/1

£4 Win
£1 Place

12/1 Hills Betfred Skybet
11/1 Independants
10/2 Elsewhere



Start of a Fresh Week
Newmarket's July meeting
With Saturdays July Cup

Eqtidaar 7/1
£2.50 Each Way

We have a provisional selection
See how that develops this week

World Cup Semi Finals and Final
Unlikely we shall have more bets
Hope the Kylian Mbappe bet wins

Wimbledon resumes Today

Juan Del Potro is in action
He is 1.16 to beat Giles Simon
If he does that he plays Nadal
And this bet will get sorted out

Quarter 4
Juan Del Potro 5/2-3/1
Win Bet


Tennis

SIMONA HALEP

World Number 1
Has now won her Grand Slam
Winning the French Open

Obviously if we ignore Serena Williams
She certainlt is the best player around
Probably so if including Williams too
Surprisingly got knocked out this week
But so were most of the seeds
Happy to see that as a learning curve

Some of the cleverest bets
Come about in races or events
When nobody else considers them
When they are not in anyone's mind

The following prices
Seem very generous to me


US Open Tennis 2018
Simona Halep 12/1-10/1

Australian Open 2019
Simona Halep 8/1

French Open 2019
Simona Halep 5/1

The professional thing to do now
As nobody wants to bet in these evens
Get on Simona Halep now in advance

Obviously we can't have multiples
As one bet affects all the others

The 5/1 to win in France next year
Looks an outstanding price now

But it is still a very long way away
The US OPEN is on the horizon


US Open Tennis

August 29th - September 11th

SIMONA HALEP 12/1 - 10/1

This starts in 51 days time
Not too long to wait for this
She really should not be 12/1

She was interviewed recently
About her surface preference
Of all surfaces she prefers Clay
Gave herself a 10/10 on Clay

On Grass said she was 8/10
On Hardcourts she was 9/10

The US Open is on hardcourt
It suits her better than Grass

What I love about this bet
We get 5/1 - 6/1 to reach the final
Tennis offers Half the odds 1-2

2015 She made the Semi final
2016 Serena beat her in the QF

Last year she lost in round 1
But the game was a circus
Maria Sharapova beat her
Her 1st match after a drug ban
Halep has improved a lot since
She is now a Grand Slam winner
Not to mention the World No 1

She is 12/1 to win this Grand Slam
This will probably be the last time
Simona Halep is 12/1 in any event

I want to bet her now for this
Nothing better in 7 weeks time
To have the prospect of a big win
Knowing we have paid on already


US Open Tennis

August 29th - September 11th

SIMONA HALEP 12/1 - 10/1

£4 Win
£1 Place
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