6 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet


Main Account

No Bet Today


Highlighted Account

No Bet Today




Betting The Message

Decided to just back off today
Tuesday is notoriously trappy
Seems wise to take a step back

Strange set of previews today
Some races have unusual stakes
Others require some guesswork
Not too sure what my best bet is

One definite option was this

Chepstow 1.05

Queen's Magic 100/30

Each Way

Lowest rated horse last time
Highest rated horse today
If she simply runs her race
She should have every chance

She is probably my best option
But don't feel I have nailed it
1st day without a bet for a while
Day for Smaller stake fun bets






Sundays Summary

Not enough went right yesterday
Mix of poor decisions and bad luck
The main bet was too speculative
Elite Icon was up there and faded
I think they went off far too quickly
She was one of the prominent ones
She looked out of her comfort zone
Trying to race up with a fast gallop
Nothing left when pace collapsed
The hold up horses swept through
No excuse as she is a poor horse
But the race wasn't run to suit her
The each way double also failed
Tornado Flyer flopped pulling up
Some issue was obviously wrong
It was a day very difficult to stake
One or two didn't run to their best
In hindsight my main bet too weak
But doubt I'd have done any better
Coming up with an alternative bet





PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Chepstow 1.05

11/4 Queen's Magic, 4/1 Sea Story, 6/1 Empreinte Reconce,
15/2 Lady Chartreuse, Love Lane, 10/1 Kestrel Valley,
12/1 Annie Bonny, Field Exhibition, 16/1 She's Gina,
33/1 Little Folke.

Mares Handicap Hurdle

Only a few of these races in January
I see the topweights as positives

QUEENS MAGIC is rated 118
LOVE LANE is rated 115

They face a 0-112 class field
But some of these have flaws

SHE'S GINA looks very beatable
LITTLE FOLKE is absent too long
ANNIE BONNY looks very beatable

LADY CHARTREUSE has 4 career runs
May just wan more experience here
Her numbers are quite low so far
Much lower than her handicap mark

EMPREINTE RECONCE is a 5yo
KESTRAL VALLEY is a 5yo

Mares Handicap Hurdles
2m 3f or shorter in January
Horses aged 5
Have a poor 0-21 record
Suggests they are too young
Just days since they were 4 year olds

EMPREINTE RECONCE may well win
But all 21 her age have lost so far
She has no handicap hurdle form either

SEA STORY could be the one
But her's is a very unorthodox profile
Trying to win a 2m handicap hurdle
Coming from a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle
Her trainer suggests we follow her
But her last run was a 5f rise in trip
This race is a 5f drop in distance
She's not yet been campaigned safely
I can't match her to any winners

FIELD EXHIBITION is a dangerous floater
Makes the shortlist of 3 horses

Shortlist

QUEENS MAGIC 100/30
LOVE LANE 13/2
FIELD EXHIBITION 10/1

QUEENS MAGIC 100/30

I like her each way
Improved last season
Needed her first run this year
Ran 2nd to an improving Alan King horse

Last time she was 4th at Cheltenham
That was 2 Grades higher than this

Last time out at Cheltenham
She was the worst horse
She was rated 118
Facing horses rated 122-138

This race
She is the best horse
Rated 118 taking on a 0-115

Hoping that drop in class
Will be enough to get a win

Selection

QUEENS MAGIC 100/30

Each Way






Musselburgh 1.55

15/8 Henry's Joy, 7/2 Fortunes Hiding,
4/1 Benny's Secret, 13/2 Buyer Beware,
15/2 Cool Valley, The Road Home.

2m 4f Novice Handicap Chase

Messy race

FORTUNES HIDING has a lot to prove
This is his chasing debut
Some horses win these races
Without any jumping experience
But none that had a close enough profile

January
Novice Handicap Chases
2m 2f and more
Horses from Maiden/Novice Hurdles
No previous chasing experience
Running this season
Return a 0-29 record in them

FORTUNES HIDING shares this profile
He has been the best backed horse
He smells like he is fancied on debut
May win but there are safer choices

COOL VALLEY is up half a mile
Having ran just 5 days ago
No enough positives as a 10yo
BENNYS SECRET has 1 chase run
Needs to improve on a 42 length defeat
BUYER BEWARE also needs to improve
THE ROAD HOME needs some as well

HENRYS JOY is a 6yo
He is the class horse
He has the best numbers
He is the joint youngest horse
He just has slightly more momentum
May just be able to concede the weight
Something needs to improve to beat him

Selection

Small Stakes

HENRYS JOY 2/1

Win Bet





Chepstow 3.50

Evs Cloudy Glen, 9/2 Caswell Bay, 10/1 High Noon,
11/1 Mead Vale, 12/1 Carrigmoorna Matt, Landofsmiles,
20/1 Chloe's Court, Samson's Reach, William B,
25/1 Bellamy's Grey, Picture Painter, Smoking Jacket,
33/1 Mountain Of Mourne.

Handicap Hurdle

CASWELL BAY is a 4yo
He looks the weakest link
Chepstow handicap hurdles
January to August
Any Class Any distance
No 4yo has won one yet
CASWELL BAY only has 2 runs
That is a concern at this track
I would want to bet around him

CLOUDY GLEN is a positive
Very short around even money
Will probably win if he doesn't bounce
This is his 2nd run back after an absence
his first run back just 8 days ago
He looks a decent saver bet
We can but him out of the race
HIGH NOON is also a saver option

CARRIHMOORNA MATT is the value
Recently upgraded stables
May have needed his last 2 runs

If we play the race this way
We have the chance of a decent win
With a significant amount of safety

Selection

£4 Win Bet CARRIHMOORNA MATT 9/1

£5 Win Bet CLOUDY GLEN 10/11- Evens

£1 Win Bet HIGH NOON 12/1




Wolverhampton 4.15

15/8 Piper Bomb, 3/1 Musbaq, 8/1 Malaysian Boleh,
8/1 Mr Andros, 9/1 Taceec, 12/1 Dodgy Bob,
14/1 Kellington Kitty, 16/1 Classy Cailin, Harbour Patrol,
25/1 Shovel It On, Tidal Surge, 33/1 Castlerea Tess.

7f Apprentice Handicap

Low grade
Horses rated between 55 and 47

Horses with infrequent runs
Don't appeal much in these races
Not on the sand at this time of year
I'd prefer 2 + runs since December
Which is going back several weeks

In this handicap the higher weights
Do not offer enough recent runs
MUSBAQ is an example of this
He has raced just once in 139 days

There are 5 horses
Who offer acceptable numbers
With enough recent runs as well

Malaysian Boleh
Dodgy Bob
Taceec
Mr Andros
Piper Bomb

TACEEC has an unsafe profile
Not keen in inexperienced horses
That also have very recent races
He also has to drop down 2 furlongs
You can argue it is a neutral profile
As so few have combined all this
Down 2 furlong and so inexperienced
When having such a short absence
The profile gives me indigestion
Just feels unsafe and far too risky

MALAYSIAN BOLEH has a chance
But he is a 9yo with beatable numbers

I would shortlist 3 horses

DODGY BOB
PIPER BOMB
MR ANDROS

DODGY BOB is up in distance
PIPER BOMB is up in distance

They were 3rd-4th in the same race
Which was a 6f handicap 3 days ago

DODGY BOB has a decent chance
He has never won over this trip
He has never won on the sand
Neither thing worries me at all
He has not raced enough on both
He may want 7f on the all weather
Has ran well in the few times he had it
He is a small type with no improvement
Not much to look at but has a chance here

PIPER BOMB has good recent runs
She is a 4yo filly up in distance
With a recent run it's a neutral profile

MR ANDROS can win if close to his best
Don't see any reason why he can't win
Wasn't able to watch his last run though


Selection

£6.50 Win Bet DODGY BOB 11/1

£1.50 Win Bet MR ANDROS 6/1

£2.00 Win Bet PIPER BOMB 4/1






Wolverhampton 5.15

9/4 Alaskan Bay, 4/1 Red Stripes, Storm Trooper,
5/1 Captain Ryan, 13/2 Zipedeedodah, 16/1 Beaming,
16/1 Whispering Soul, 20/1 Celerity, Shesthedream,
50/1 Barnsdale, Minty Jones.

5f Handicap

The market suggests a split
5 horses with strong chances
6 horses much harder to like
Tend to agree with that view

The outsiders in this race
Either lack the class required
Or the form or runs to show it

Looking at the 5 main runners
Trying to narrow this down a bit

Runs in the last 50 days

5 Red Stripes
4 Storm Trooper
3 Captain Ryan
1 Zipedeedodah
1 Alaskan Bay

ALASKAN BAY has 1 run in this period
Not a lot for a 4 year old filly over 5f
ZIPEDEEDODAH has just 1 race too
He has raced just once in 69 days

I would see this pair as unsafe
Because in the previous 50 days
Several of their biggest rivals
Raced 3-4-5 times in the same period

Shortlist

RED STRIPES
STORM TROOPER
CAPTAIN RYAN


RED STRIPES is 0-29 at the track
I would ignore that misleading angle
He only ever wins with a recent run
He just about has that today

STORM TROOPER is shaping well
Suffered with setbacks for a long time
He should not be far away from winning

Any of these can win
Happy to bet any of them each way
Splitting these three is not so easy
But it is little better than a guessing game
Maybe better to split stake the race

Selection

Option 1

£6 Win RED STRIPES 4/1

£2 Win STORM TROOPER 7/2

£2 Win CAPTAIN RYAN 9/2


Option 2

RED STRIPES 4/1

Each Way

I will go with Option 2
He seems to place quite a lot






Wolverhampton 6.45

5/4 Hathal, 11/8 Goring, 5/1 Carry On Deryck,
16/1 Dragon Mall, Michele Strogoff
50/1 Gold Hunter.

Conditions race 9.5f
High quality race at level weighs

Offficial Ratings

107 Carry On Deryck
107 Hathal
102 Goring
87 Michele Strogoff
87 Dragon Mall
76 Gold Hunter

3 horses stand out on ratings
2 of these have obvious flaws

CARRY ON DERYCK has an absence
He is a 7yo absent 319 days
Has downgraded stables twice
Since he was last seen on the track
That absence is a bit too firce for me
His trainers winners in Class 3 or higher
Have always had a run within 47 days
He could pop in but I prefer the others

HATHAL is joint top rated
But he has to prove quite a bit
He has raced just once beyond 8f
Whilst that was a decent race
Enough to assume that he will stay
He is stepping up from 7.5f to 9.5f
That is not a positive about his chance
He has raced just once in 47 days now
Whilst that may not be a problem
In the same period of time
GORING has raced 3 times
He does not have to step up in trip
He has the best last time out numbers
So despite being "3rd best" on ratings
He looks the most likely winner to me
Based on his profile and recent runs

Selection

GORING 7/4

Win Bet






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Saturday

No entries have come through
Not much I can say on a Tuesday
There is a race we usually cover

Warwick Classic Chase

Will get the entries tomorrow
Must have a good look at that
See if we can find something

3 recent Grand National winners
Ran in the Warwick Classic Chase
Have to keep an eye on the race
As we start all the Aintree work



Grand National

Wanted to get started on this race
Still very early with 89 days to go
No entries have been released yet

Want to slowly chip away at the race
Just let thing run quietly along

Bringing back the Points system
Which we last used back in 2016

Every Day quickly in this column
Going to look at 1 horse that day
Preview the horses overall chance
Give his estimated points score
Create an ongoing league table



Aintree Grand National

Tiger Roll 16/1 Native River 16/1 Pleasant Company 20/1
Elegant Escape 20/1 Acapella Bourgeois 25/1 Vintage Clouds 25/1
Bellshill 25/1 One For Arthur 25/1 Jury Duty 25/1 Definitly Red 25/1
General Principle 25/1 Ucello Conti 25/1 Valtor 33/1 Anibale Fly 33/1
Isleofhopendreams 33/1 Beware The Bear 33/1 Step Back 33/1
Coneygree 33/1 Pairofbrowneyes 33/1 Folsom Blue 33/1
Sizing Tennessee 33/1 Cogry 33/1 Rathvinden 33/1 Blaklion 33/1
O O Seven 33/1 Mall Dini 33/1 Warriors Tale 33/1 Walk In The Mill 33/1
Present Man 33/1 Ballyoptic 33/1 Vieux Lion Rouge 33/1 Abolitionist 33/1
Rock The Kasbah 33/1 Noble Endeavour 33/1 Auvergnat 33/1
No Comment 33/1 Lake View Lad 33/1 Fagan 40/1 Relentless Dreamer 40/1
Borice 40/1 Daklondike 40/1 Thomas Patrick 40/1 Total Recall 40/1
Alpha Des Obeaux 40/1 Baywing 40/1 Ms Parfois 40/1 Anibale Fly 33/1
Ultragold 40/1 The Young Master 40/1 Baie Des Iles 40/1
Missed Approach 40/1 Ramses De Teillee 40/1 The Last Samuri 50/1
Don Poli 50/1 Crosshue Boy 50/1 Doing Fine 50/1 Joe Farrell 50/1
Big River 50/1 Milansbar 50/1 Forever Gold 50/1 Monbeg Notorious 50/1
The Dutchman 50/1 Traffic Fluide 50/1 Minella Rocco 50/1 Frodon 50/1
Regal Flow 66/1 Art Mauresque 66/1 Theatre Territory 66/1
Allysson Monterg 66/1 Bless The Wings 66/1 Lil Rockerfeller 66/1
Smooth Stepper 100/1


Grand National Scoring System

Longer term members
Will remember we did this in 2016
The rules of the system are below

The scoring system is just a guide
Exact scores can not be finalised
Until after the Cheltenham Festival
Where we can find out final scores

Top rated scorer in 2016 was 53
Many Clouds won that race with 50
Any horse scoring around 50 points
Should really have a very solid total

Alpha Des Obeaux my ante post bet
Has earnt a provisional score of 50


Todays Horse

TIGER ROLL

Won the race last season
Won it from a handicap rating of 150
Currently has a handicap rating of 159

Many Clouds has won a national off 160
Horses rated 158 or higher are just 1-21
Many Clouds had 4 previous prep races

TIGER ROLL may have just two races
I just can not see him winning it again

Not when he is lighter raced that last year
Not when he will have a lot more weight
Not the biggest of horses for that weight
His trainer has said he doesn't fancy him

Current Points score on the System is 48
That is a better number than I expected
But he will be well down the list in time
It is a better score as I ignore his weight
What drags his score down is obvious
It is his lack of runs this current season

The previous 23 National winners
Had the following runs that season
3 5 4 8 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7

TIGER ROLL is likely to have only two
Less than all of the last 23 winners
Which makes him simply unacceptable



Provisional Points Table

Estimated/Projected scores

50 Alpha Des Obeaux

48 Tiger Roll




Grand National

Scoring System Rules

Horses start with 50 Points

Horses aged 7 - Deduct 5 Pts
Horses aged 8 - Deduct 2 Pts
8yo Foaled > May 1st Deduct 1pt
Horses aged 10 - Add Half a Point
Horses aged 11 - Add Half a Point
Horses aged 12 - Deduct 2 Pts
Horses aged 13 + Deduct 5 Pts

Horses aged 8 have a 2pts deduction
Add an extra Point to 8 year olds
If they won a Graded Chase before

Previous runs since August 1st

0-1 runs Deduct 5 points
2 runs Deduct 3 Points
3 runs - Deduct 0.5 points
2 runs and 21 + Chases - Deduct 2pts
3 runs and 21 + Chases - Deduct 1pts

Runs Since January 1st

Under 2 runs Deduct 2 pt
If 21 + Chase starts - Deduct 1 pt

Absent 56-65 Days- Deduct 1pt
Absent 66-85 Days - Deduct 2 pts
Absent 86-96 Days - Deduct 3 pts
Absent 97-119 Days - Deduct 3.5 pts
Absent 120 + days - Deduct 4 pts

Listed/Graded winners - Add 1 pt
No Graded form - Deduct 3 pts

Under 9 Chase starts - Deduct 3 pts
Under 3 Chase wins - Deduct 1.5 pts
3 or more Chase Falls - Deduct 2 pts

Not won over 3m + Deduct 1.5 pts
Won over 3m 3f + Add 1 pt
Coming from <2m 5f - Deduct 1.5 pts
If it was a Chase - Deduct 0.5 more
Coming from < 2m 6f Deduct 1 pt
If 21 + runs - Deduct another 0.5pt

<3 Handicap Chase runs - Deduct 2pts
Only deduct 1 pt if won Grade 1-2 Chase
Only deduct 1 pt if placed in G1 Chase
Running in 5-12 Handicap - Add 1 pt
No Handicap Chase win- Deduct 1 pt
Won 7 + Handicap Chases - Deduct 1 pt
2 + wins since August 1st - Deduct 1 pt

Horses from Cheltenham Handicaps
Winning last time Deduct 1.5 pts
Coming from any Cheltenham race
Beaten over 15 lengths Deduct 1pt
Hurdles run since Aug 1st - Add 1 pt

***************************************************
***************************************************