3 Race Discussed
0 Account Bet
1 Highlighted Bet


Highlighted Bet

Gowran Park 5.05

WAITAKI 7/1

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4 Places



8/1 Bet365
15/2 Skybet Hills VC Betfred
15/2 Betway Boyles
7/1 Betfred Tote






Betting The Message

First message of a week
That includes Classic trials
And the Scottish Grand National

Took a break yesterday
Started today's message very late
So have not covered too much

Given how late I started today
Quite happy with the 3 previews
Which are all over at Gowran Park

Gowran Park 4.05

£5 Win Bet Pocotaligo 6/1
£5 Win Bet Basic Law 1011



Gowran Park 5.05
Waitaki 7/1
Each Way


Gowran Park 7.10
Jassaar 10/11
Win bet


JASAAR is too short
But the market danger is unsafe
Unlikely winner given his draw

The 4.05pm race
Probably the best bet of the 3
But this is a very weak market
No control over the prices

So Highlighting the 5.05 race
By far the hardest of the 3 races
But we have the biggest price
We have 4 places available e/w
And just like Sundays Bet
He's the fittest horse in the race






Sunday's Summary

There was no Monday message
Sunday the finish of a heavy run
Our 5 previews went W L L P W
The highlighted bet at least won
SCOTCH QUAY won quite easily
May have been lucky at the last
But I feel he'd have won anyway
Given we had lots of non runners
I'm surprised that he started 7/2
Anyway a nice way to end a week



PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Gowran Park 4.05

5/4 Basic Law, 9/2 Feather Step, 11/2 Pocotaligo,
10/1 Vivax, 14/1 Geneticist, 16/1 Dee Sprinter,
16/1 In My Business, Mairead Kate, Snapraeceps,
25/1 Fugacious, Light Breeze, 25/1 Sarah Jessica,
33/1 Able Dealer, 50/1 Private Jackson, 66/1 Macaban City
66/1 Micro Latency.

7f Maiden for 3 year olds

BASIC LAW has been out already
Racing Post Rating of 87

If that is a true reflection of his ability
Then he will surely win this race

Not so sure it is though
That rating may flatter him a bit
Because of the mainden he debuted in
With some powerful stables competing

He could be a good saver at 10/11

Several of these
Will do well to win at 7f on their first run

VIVAX in particular sired by Dandy Man

MAIREAD KATE as well sired by Zebedee
She has to try and win first time drawn 16

POCOTALIGO ran 10 days ago
That was over 8f which looked too far
Down in trip he should run well enough
This could be a sensible split stake race

Selection

£5 Win Bet POCOTALIGO 6/1

£5 Win Bet BASIC LAW 10/11




Gowran Park 5.05

100/30 Peshkova, 7/2 Fascinating Spirit,
15/2 Villa Maria, 8/1 Althib, 10/1 Waitaki, 11/1 Youceeyouceecee,
14/1 Mojambo, Nailed On Nina, 16/1 Figure It Out, Harry Speed,
16/1 Kudbegood, 20/1 Phoenix Lightning, 25/1 Burren View Lady,
25/1 Misdjazz, Punches Pious, 40/1 Reaper Man.

7f Handicap

PESHKOVA is 11/4 favourite

Joseph O'Brien
As you know
One of my favourite trainers

But not only is she topweight
She is a filly taking on male horses
And surely coming from a 5f race
Stepping up 2 furlongs
Having raced within just 10 days
Is asking a lot for a filly over 7f

April
7f Handicaps
Any Class of race
Horses from 5f races
Running within 13 days
Return a 0-47 record in them
PESHKOVA fails this 0-47 angle

Have to try and get her beaten
Opposing her with an each way bet

Can not avoid having a guess
With so many seasonal debutants

ALTHIB would not appeal as a bet
From a trainer with a miserable record
With horses that face long absences

YOUCEEYOUCEECEE is very exposed
Would not want him with a long break
From a trainer with low scores
And no winners absent as long as him

VILLA MARIA has 137 days off
She has a 137 day absence
If you look at her trainer Adrian Murray
His runners absent over 72 days
Have a modest 1-81 record
That winner was a hurdler
His record with his Flat runners
So far is a very modest 1-126

Other trainers with poor records
With absent horses on the flat
Include the trainers of these horses
FIGURE IT OUT
PHOENIX LIGHTNING

Gowran Park 7f races
Any race any class since 2011
Horses drawn 13 or higher
Absent more than 36 days
Have a 0-60 record
PHOENIX LIGHTNING fails this
MISSDJAZZ also fails this
HARRY SPEED also fails this
PUNCHES PIOUS does as well

FASCINATING SPIRIT could go well
But not many positives to cling on to

WAITIKI is no world beater
But with a 6 day absence
Several runs this Spring
She is clearly the fittest horse

8/1 Each Way
Surely has to be the bet here

Selection

WAITIKI 7/1

Each Way





Gowran Park 7.10

5/4 Jassaar, 3/1 Johnny Drama, 7/1 Minnie Haha
9/1 Mujid, 10/1 Telepathy, 16/1 Got Trumped,
16/1 Media Deal, 20/1 Chef Afef, Papal Count,
25/1 Allez Kal, 33/1 Lizbuncon, 40/1 Latoyah Of North,
40/1 Silver The Fixer, War Advocate, 50/1 Global Entry,
66/1 Just Lucy, 100/1 Miss Cassy.

9f Maiden race

Horses aged 4 and older

JASSAAR has strong connections
Decent couple of runs last season
Drawn badly on his debut
Ran into Sir Eric on his 2nd start
The 3rd horse that day was rated 90
And was beaten a long way into 3rd

He looks the winner
When you factor in other things
The lack of fancied horses in the market

JOHNNY DRAMA the 2nd favourite
Looks badly drawn in Stall 16

Gowran Park
All races over 9f
Since 2011

Horses drawn 16 or higher
Have a 0-63 record in all 9f races

Horses with under 7 runs
Drawn 15 or higher
Have a 0-60 record since 2011
JOHNNY DRAMA is badly drawn

MINNIE HA HA could be a danger
But she doesn't set a high standard

Selection

JASSAAR Evens

Win bet





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Scottish Grand National

Full race Statistics below

Before that a short tidy-up
With the usual waffle thrown in


2000 Guineas

Too Darn Hot

Has his Guineas Prep run Saturday
In the Greenham Stakes at Newbury
He is priced around around 2/7 - 1/4

In a timeline of the Flat Season
Which has only barely just started
We've just wiped the sleep from our eyes
The Greenham comes ridiculously early

This race though may be an opportunity
To include as a starting point
For some each way multiple bets

With the US Masters Golf
And the Scottish National
Which is elaborated on later



Grand National

Scoring System Results

Top Scores

1) Tiger Roll 52.50
2) General Principle 52.50
3) Walk In The Mill 52.00

Tiger Roll won
General Principle Fell
Walk In The Mill was 4th

The 3 Top Scorers
Finished with a W F 4 record
Was a pretty reasonable effort
Much better than my own stakes
The System did better than I did




Bundesliga Update

Latest Betting

1/3 Munich 3/1 Dortmund

Bayern Munich 5-0 Borrusia Dortmund
Extremely sad result for B. Dortmund
Looks like they might finish in second
They are 1 point behind - 6 Games left



National League

The last games of the season
Now only 18 stressful days away
Then I can finally stop boring you
About the Salford City situation

Leyton Orient play tonight
They are 8/11 home to Eastleigh
Obviously hoping they slip up
Would be nice if they failed to win




US Masters Golf

Starts Thursday

As mentioned before
I have had a small bet

Justin Rose 14/1

I like this event
Never have more than an interest bet
Don't kid myself my view is significant

Most firms are going 6 places

The first firms to have broken rank
Offering 1/5 the odds and 10 places

Corals
Paddy Power
Skybet
Unibet

10 Places is interesting

May tempt me into a Novelty bet

If we use the extended place terms
May be worth some each way doubles
Combing 2 events this week

1) US Masters Golf

2) Scottish Grand National


Thursday's Message

Could be the time to do this

There could be opportunities

For a different kind of each way multiple

TWO DARN HOT runs on Friday
His prep run for the 2000 Guineas
He is priced up at 1/4 for the Greenham

There could be horses against him
Who could be included at long odds
With a view to just seeking a place

May not work out that way
But in Thursdays message
I may well go on Manoeuvres
With some each way multiples



Scottish Grand National

Saturday

Ayr 3.35

Race Statistics

8/1 Dingo Dollar, 8/1 Big River
10/1 Beware The Bear 10/1 Vintage Clouds
12/1 Talkischeap 14/1 Crosshue Boy 14/1 Crosspark
16/1 Ibis du Rheu 16/1 Carole's Destrier 16/1 Cloth Cap
16/1 Impulsive Star 16/1 Chic Name, 16/1 Chidswell
16/1 The Young Master 20/1 Cogry 20/1 Blue Flight
20/1 Geronimo 20/1 Doing Fine 25/1 Yala Enki
25/1 Skipthecuddles 25/1 Arthur's Gift 25/1 Ballydine
25/1 Mysteree 25/1 Brian Boranha 25/1 Takingrisks
25/1 Gold Opera 33/1 Rathlin Rose 33/1 Red Infantry
33/1 Van Gogh du Granit 40/1 Kingswell Theatre
40/1 Morney Wing 50/1 Sizing Codelco 50/1 Acdc
50/1 Beau du Brizais

Recent winners
Number of Chase runs
5 13 7 22 10 6 18 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10

Recent winners
Number of runs that season
5 5 5 5 3 6 5 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5

All had at least 3 runs that year
None more than 7 runs that season

Graded Handicap Chases
3m 4f or more since 2014
Fields of 10 more runners
Horses with 20 + Chase runs
Have a dreadful 2-145 record
Those absent 33 + days are 0-70
Those with 10st 12lbs + are 0-62

Horses aged 6
Have a 0-16 record since 1997
The last to win Earth Summit 1994
Since then they finished as follows
2 5 18 2 PU PU 8 UR 5 PU 2 PU F PU
None have won but 3 were second

Horses aged 7
Have won 4 renewals since 1984
They were absent 44 38 84 31 days
They won from ratings of 146 137 139 137
They had 7 6 14 6 Chase runs
None won with under 6 Chase runs

Go back as far as the 1950 renewal
No 7yo won this with more than 11st 3bs
No 7yo has won rated 147 or more
None won when the ground was soft

Previous 8yo winners
Had 24 33 21 15 24 19 25 17 lifetime runs
Had 13 10 6 14 5 9 10 Chase runs

Horses aged 11 or more are 5-126
I want at least 5 runs that season
All ran within the previous 7 weeks a
They all had 11st or less weight

Horses from the Grand National
Have a horrible record in this race

The 2017 winner did manage it
But as he fell at the 1st at Aintree
It does not put me off this statistic
You hav
e to go back to 1987
For the last to win from the National

21 of the last 23 winners
Ran within the previous 57 days
The other two were absent 84 - 104 days

Horses coming from Cheltenham
Who Ran in a festival Handicap Chase
Had a 0-62 record in this race since 1999

No Cheltenham festival winner
Has followed up in this in 32 years

No horse with 11st 3lbs or more
Has won this absent over 6 weeks

Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time
Have a 1-126 record in recent seasons

12 of the last 14 winners
Had 2 or 3 runs since New Years Day

Horses rated 151 or more
Have a 0-19 record in this race

18 of the last 21 winners
Came from Class 2 or 3 races
Rather than listed or graded races

Horses from Grade 2 Chases are 0-16
Horses from Grade 1 Chases are 0-22

Horses from Non Handicap Chases
Have are 2-89 record in past renewals
Those from Class A Novice Chases 0-44
Those from Cheltenhams NH Chase 2-30
Both winners were 2nd - 3rd in that race

Most recent winners
Started life in Hurdles or Bumpers

Avoid horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter
Only 1 winner did that and he ran within a week

21 of the last 23 winners
Finished 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

Horses with over 10 hurdle runs
Have a 1-103 record in this since 1998
Horses with quite long hurdle careers
Do not tend to win these races

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