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Betting The Message


About to get some colder weather
And all those associated problems

Likely to be rusty and need today
Started this message rather late
Needs to be a quiet practice day
Then start back properly Friday

Two Wincanton Handicap chases
Both are out of my comfort zone
So not too sure what to expect

Not advised bets on the day
Rather than pick one as my best bet
Why not have a small £10 Novelty bet

Wincanton 2.25 - Potters Corner 5/1
Wincanton 2.25 - Wandrin Star 6/1
x
Wincanton 3.35 - Balibour 7/1
Wincanton 3.35 - Joueur Bresilien 5/1

4 x £2.50 Win Doubles





Tuesdays Summary

The last message was Tuesday
We had 2 winners in 5 previews
My best bet though was beaten
TICKET TO RIDE came second
Beaten by the main danger too
I thought he would reverse form
But he didn't and we got nothing
That defeat made it a poor day




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Wincanton 2.25

4/1 Wandrin Star, 9/2 Gunfleet, 5/1 Garrane,
5/1 Len Brennan, 11/2 Potters Corner, 13/2 Perform,
11/1 Belmount, 14/1 Like The Sound,
16/1 Dancing Shadow.

Handicap Chase 3m 2f

Competetive and open
In the long history of this race
Two things have yet to happen
No horse aged 6 has won
No horse with under 3 chase runs won

LEN BRENNAN is a 6yo
No horse his age has won this
He is a 6yo with just 2 chase starts
He fails both of those angles
GUNFLEET has just 2 chase runs
Can't be sure he has the tools to win
When you factor in he has topweight
LIKE THE SOUND lacks positives
DANCING SHADOW is a 10 year old
Neither of his 2 runs since April 2018
Make him a safe enough proposition
BELMONT has 32 previous chases
Very exposed and has 68 days off
Not keen on that mixture of runs/absence

If I am right so far
And all the above horses get beaten
WANDRIN STAR becomes interesting
His highest rated opponent
Who has yet to be rejected is 127
That would be well within his grasp
He has won 2 of 4 runs this season
And gone up in the handicap 24lbs
But his last 2 runs were career bests
And his numbers say he can win off 137

GARANE has just 3 chase starts
Only 1 past winner had under 4 chases
Only 1 past winner was under 8 years old
He comes here with a 2 2 2 record this year
BVeaten 3 times but raised in the weights
After each of his 3 defeats seems harsh
PERFORM is a 10yo
He has 9 Career starts
He has 5 Chase starts

Handicap Chases in January
3m 1f and more in Class 2-3-4
Horses aged 10 or more
Under 14 career starts are 0-24
Under 9 chase runs are 0-39
PERFORM fails both angles
He has a better chance than that
But he can not be matched to a winner

POTTERS CORNER is a positive

Selection

£4 Each Way POTTERS CORNER 5/1

£2 Win Bet WANDRIN STAR 6/1




Wincanton 3.35

2/1 Cracking Destiny, 4/1 Air Navigator, 11/2 Balibour,
6/1 Joueur Bresilien, 10/1 Primal Focus,
14/1 All Kings, Canyouringmeback, Skellig Rocks.

2m 4f Novice Handicap Chase

CRACKING DESTINY is favourite
Something I don't like about him
Don't mind he has only 1 chase run
But a 9 day absence after that run
Does not sit very comfortably with me
I tried to find a similar profile

January and February
Novice Handicap Chases
2m 2f and further
Horses aged 6
1 previous chase run
Running within 4 weeks
I find a 0-22 record
CRACKING DESTINY shares this profile

Hardly exciting
But he is not like a winner
I don't see a strong case for him
No 6yo has won this race
He is a flat bred with the least experience
And you have to wonder as well
Why Nicky Henderson got rid of him
After only 3 runs all over hurdles

PRIMAL FOCUS is rejected
He has never run over fences
From a sire without any chase winners

CANYOURINGMEBACK is out of form
ALL KINGS is a 10 year old
Not so bothered he has a 0-17 record
But this is a race for Novices
He is 2 years older than every horse
I'd rather have a younger type
SKELLIG ROCKS may not be safe
He has had just 1 run this season
Every other horse had had more
I could forgive a lightly raced type
But he has 21 runs 10 over fences
Hardly unexposed and short of recent runs

This leaves 3 horses

AIR NAVIGATOR
BALIBOUR
JOUEUR BRESILIEN

This pair have other similarities
On last time out Racing Post Ratings
They have the best numbers in the race

AIR NAVIGATOR has 2 chase starts
Horses aged 8 or more
Under 3 chase runs
11st 6lbs or more
Have won a couple of races
But those with 1-2 runs that season
Returned a 0-35 record
I'd have preferred another run

BALIBOUR's profile is fine
Not been the most assured jumper
Entitled to improve as he progresses
But not an idea track for mistakes

JOUEUR BRESILIEN is interesting
Ran well over 2m 7f last time
May not have got home last time
He was entitled to need that run
He has only had 1 proper recent run
That makes him saver not selection

BALIBOUR has more recent runs
Better price he is given a chance

Selection

£4.00 Each Way BALIBOUR 7/1

£2.00 Win Bet JOUEUR BRESILIEN 5/1






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



FA Trophy

More prices are coming though

Salford Prices

5/1 Betway
4/1 Chandler
4/1 Bet365
7/2 Unibet

Salford are home to Maidstone United
Who are second bottom of our league

Salford will be long odds on to progress
Then we get to the quarter final stages
With the Semi finals ideal over two legs
I would see Salford as just a 9/4 chance





Saturday 19th

Haydock 3.15pm

Peter Marsh Chase

Ramses de Teillee 4/1 Valtor 9/2 O O Seven 8/1
Daklondike 8/1 Ballyarthur 8/1 Otago Trail 9/1
Wakanda 10/1 Robinsfirth 12/1 Ballydine 12/1
One For Arthur 12/1 Red Infantry 12/1
Captain Redbeard 14/1 Fine Rightly 14/1
Pobbles Bay 16/1 Morney Wing 16/1
Allysson Monterg 16/1 Solighoster 16/1
Vieux Lion Rouge 16/1 Three Musketeers 20/1
Federici 25/1 Sandy Beach 25/1 Chase The Spud 33/1

Declarations later today
Currently 22 are declared
This number will drop a bit

The weather will be a factor
The weights will be another

If VALTOR does not run
The weights will go up 6lbs
So a lot we just don't know

The race has no 8 year olds
That is another issue to consider

The best recent profile

Horses aged 8 or more
Under 13 Chase runs
At least 2 runs this season
Under 10st 8lbs weight

Horses with the above profile
Have a promising 6-24 record
Winning this race in these years
2004 2005 2007 2014 2015 2018

Horses currently with this profile

Red Infantry 12/1
Three Musketeers
Allysson Monterg 16/1
Ballyarthur 8/1
Ballydine 12/1

Will finish this race on Saturday







Cheltenham Festival


Footpad

Getting some stick in the media
From the main industry tipsters


Tom Segal

" Dont think he is anywhere near good enough"

Paul Kealy

"Found out beating rubbish last season"


He is an Arkle Chase winner
So a bit premature to write him off
But needs to win the Dublin Chase
To show us he is a serious contender


Now a quote of my own


Buveau D'Air

"Last year I heard 2 things about him
One was how stuffy a horse he was
Henderson gave him 3 runs last year
Said he wanted ideally to have a 4th
That will be very important this year
If he has 1-2 runs before Cheltenham
Then me and him will part company
If he has 3 runs I will consider him
If he has 4 + runs then he is onside"


Reports came out yesterday
About his Champion Hurdle preparation
Buveau D'Air may not have another run

In 2017 and 2018 before Cheltenham
He ran at Sandown in February both years
That was his 3rd run of each season

Nicky Henderson said yesterday

“I’ve not decided whether to run him
or not at Sandown. I've been treating
a couple of things since his last run,
because he was a bit sore behind. It
was so insignificant – but you keep
attention to all details.”


That sets off alarm bells to me

Buveau D'Air going straight there
Would not be a statistical negative
He would have 74 days absence
The 2015 and 2012 winners had similar

He would have just 2 runs this year
Again that is not a statistical problem
Annie Power won with just the 1 run
Others have won with light seasons

It is just the horse himself
Who has been described as stuffy
Who they do say is hard to get fit
And having won twice with 3 prep runs
It worries me if he has just 2 this year

My Champion Hurdle default position
Buveau D'Air in any each way double
But if he does miss his Sandown prep
That could easily stop me betting him


Want to look at the following races

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

The markets are so raw right now
Racing Post have some entries up
But these are just possible entries
Official declarations on January 29th

Will have a quick look tomorrow
At the main market leaders
For the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle





Grand National


Todays Horse

ROCK THE KASBAH 33/1

He has been well backed recently
The biggest issue with his chance

Will he run again before Aintree ?

His trainer has recently hinted
That he may go straight there

His score will be affected by this

0 more runs he will score 46.00
1 more runs he will score 51.00
2 more runs he will score 53.00

Going to assume he runs again
Gets him a provisional score of 51
That puts him on top of the table

But if he does not run again
His score will drop down heavily
As will have a viscous absence

If he does run again
Then there are positives
Don't see any breeding red flags
You can argue he's unproven at Aintree
Right now has to be a positive profile

Provisional Points Table

Estimated/Projected scores

51.00 Rock The Kasbah
50.00 Alpha Des Obeaux
50.00 One For Arthur
49.00 Walk In The Mill
48.50 Bellshill
48.00 Tiger Roll
46.50 Step Back
43.00 Elegant Escape
41.00 Rathvinden

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