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Newcastle 7.30

CAPTAIN LARS 10/11

Win Bet




Betting The Message

Start of Eider Chase week
That race the main priority

Lingfield has a 3m 5f Chase
That's the days main preview
Huge field highly competitive
But spent a lot of time on this
Only to come to the favourite


Lingfield 3.50

ROYAL TARA 5/1

Each Way

Slightly underwhelmed by this
But it is where my angles led


Covering 5 races today

Two of these are short prices

Lingfield 3.15 - Dominateur 11/8

Newcastle 7.30 - Captain Lars 10/11

I think both of these will win
Dominatuer is a percentage bet
Experienced fancied hurdler
His main rivals are from bumpers

Captain Lars is very interesting
Weights and Measures punters
Will argue he should get beaten
Valid argument but I'd question it
Just feel he has too much class
Not keen on short priced horses
Especially on sand late at night
When the track is riding slowly
You can find unpleasant results
But I will be surprised if he loses

Extreme each way double lovers
May well consider that possibility
£1 each way double on these (£2)
Returns about £1.59 if they place
Returns roughly £6.34 if both win
I appreciate few will be tempted

There is another option as well

Carlisle 2.00 - Champagne Court 9/4
Lingfield 3.15 - Dominateur 11/8

Each Way Double

Don't really want to stake this
Or any each way double option'
But the other main alternative

Betting ROYAL TARA each way
Over 3m 5f of misery on heavy
Doesn't sit too comfortably


So biting the bullet

Newcastle 7.30

CAPTAIN LARS 10/11

Win Bet

Main reasons for this bet below
But decided to go with this bet
Even at a short price this evening
Because of the following statistic

All Selling races
Any Distance
Any Month of the year

3yo Fillies
Under 5 career starts
Taking on all aged horses
Have a 0-99 record
The main danger to Captain Lars
Fails this 0-99 all year round angle

None of my best bet options
Are bets I really want to go with'
Mainly because of short prices
Or because we get limited rewards

But statistically

Captain Lars should really be winning



Sunday's Summary

We looked at 3 races yesterday
Started with a winner and a loser
Breaking Waves won a good start
But the 2nd preview was a failure
That just left the best bet to come
We backed two horses each way
Wenceslaus ran well finishing 3rd
Tim Rocco also ran well in 4th place
He was matched at odds on as well
It was staked to not lose any money
If one of those horses were placed
And that's what we managed to get
Broke Level an overall score draw




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Carlisle 2.00

7/4 Vis A Vis, 2/1 Champagne Court, 9/2 Hill Sixteen,
8/1 Lily's Gem, 9/1 The Big Galloper, 16/1 Murphy's Law,
16/1 Pleney, 100/1 Peak Time, Retrace, The Boo Box,
100/1 Try It You.

Novice Hurdle over 2m 3f

VIS A VIS is a 5yo
No National Hunt form
Comes from the flat
Last seen in October
When 4th in the Cesarewitch
Nice prospect but hard to judge

If I look at similar types
In Novice hurdles over 2m 2f +
Run January to March
I find a 0-32 record with his type

Not many of these were fancied
And he might well win on his debut
But experienced horses are preferred
And some of these have respectable form
LILY'S GEM is rejected as a mare
Who is coming from only a Bumper
I'd play the race this way

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet CHAMPAGNE COURT 9/4

£2.50 Win Bet HILL SIXTEEN 7/2





Lingfield 2.45

3/1 Waikiki Waves, 7/2 Big Time Frank,
6/1 Burgess Dream, 7/1 Goring One, The Boss's Dream,
8/1 Snowball, 12/1 What Larks, 14/1 Danseur Du Large,
14/1 Hepburn, 25/1 Canyouhearmenow, 33/1 Foxy Lass,
33/1 Onurbike.

Handicap Chase 2m 7f

Not in my comfort zone here
WAIKIKI WAVES will do well to win
Considering he has prepped over 2m

February Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 7f and more
Horses coming from 2m Chases
Have a 0-32 record in them
WAIKIKI WAVES has this problem

DANSEUR DU LARGE didn't appeal
Not well beaten at 33/1 in his only chase
HEPBURN may need another race
GORING ONE is rejected as a 14yo
WHAT LARKS isn't offering enough
None of the complete outsiders appeal
I have to shortlist 4

SNOWBALL
BIG TIME FRANK
BURGESS DREAM
THE BOSS'S DREAM

SNOWBALL is a 12yo
I'd like to take him off the shortlist
But my angles suggest I can't do this
Despite that playing it this way
In a race I can only take a guess at

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet BURGESS DREAM 8/1

£1.50 Win Bet THE BOSS'S DREAM 7/1

£2.00 Win Bet BIG TIME FRANK 7/2





Lingfield 3.15

6/4 Dominateur, 2/1 Destinee Royale, 5/2 New Age Dawning,
16/1 Eye In The Sky, 25/1 Ector, Jog On, 33/1 Risky Gold,
40/1 Scarlet Couture, 100/1 Writingsonthewall.

Novice Hurdle 2m 3f
Shapes up like a 3 horse race

February has 558 Novice Hurdles
Thats over every distance since 2007
Mares
Coming from Bumpers
Have a 0-57 record in them
DESTINEE ROYALE fails this

January February March
Novice Hurdles over 2m 1f +
Mares from non graded bumpers
Have a 1-140 record
Those aged 6 or more are 0-82
Those with 1 career start 0-32
DESTINEE ROYALE fails this
She looks the weakest horse
From the main runners in the race

NEW AGE DAWNING
He is a 5yo from a bumper
January February March
Novice Hurdles over 2m 1f +
5yo from bumpers are 2-156
But those winning last time out
Had a significantly better 2-10 record
NEW AGE DAWNING has to be a threat

DOMINATEUR in contrast
Has 3 previous hurdle runs
His numbers are good enough
Neither of his 2 realistic dangers
Have ever raced over hurdles before
I fear the second favourite
But surely he is the percentage bet

Selection

DOMINATEUR 11/8

Win Bet





Lingfield 3.50

11/2 Royal Tara, 7/1 Greyed A, Socksy, 8/1 Ballymalin,
9/1 Knockanrawley, 10/1 Bob Ford, 10/1 Kilcullen Flem,
10/1 Pearl Swan, 12/1 Le Reve, 14/1 Big Meadow,
14/1 The Winkler, 16/1 Court Frontier, 16/1 Weststreet,
20/1 Cap Horner, 20/1 Lac Sacre, 25/1 Black Narcissus,
25/1 Frankly Speaking.


3m 5f Handicap Chase
60 similar races in February

Number of Chase runs

32 Bob Ford
26 Le Reve
24 Lac Sacre
23 Court Frontier
19 The Winkler
18 Black Narcissus
17 Knockanrawley
14 Kilcullen Flem
13 Cap Horner
10 Pearl Swan
10 Big Meadow
9 Ballymalin
8 Greyed A
7 Weststreet
7 Socksy
6 Royal Tara
2 Frankly Speaking

Horses aged 12 or more
Have a 0-60 record in 60 races
BOB FORD is rejected aged 12
Especially coming from a 2m 4f race

Few 11 year olds won either
Only the lighter raced ones
Horses aged 11 or more
With 15 or more Chase runs
Have a 0-52 record in these races

LE REVE fails this 0-52 statistic
Too many doubts about his fitness
KNOCKANRAWLEY has this 0-52 profile
With just 1 run in months he is risky
COURT FRONTIER fails this 0-52 angle
As he is 11 years old with 23 chase runs
He's raced just once since November

COURT FRONTIER has won over 3m 6f
But that was in a 5 runner race
His sires runners
In fields of 10 or more
Racing over 3m 3f or more
Have a 0-30 record so far

PEARL SWAN is 11 years old
He is lightly raced for a horse that age
But he has to cope with Topweight
Having raced just once this season

BLACK NARCISSUS is rejected
As a mare with 1 run this season
From a sire with stamina limitations
She has never won in a big field
CAP HORNER's numbers are too low
FRANKLY SPEAKING is a 9yo
But he has only had 2 chase starts
The last was a 60 length thrashing
Can not risk him so inexperienced
LAC SACRE has 24 Chase runs
Only managed to win one of those 24
Needed a better last run for his type

THE WINKLER has 19 Chase races
Thats exposed for 1 run in 9 months
He has never won past 2m 6f
He has never raced beyond 3m 2f
He has also recently downgraded yards

WESTSTREET can win off his rating
His biggest concern is his stamina
His sire gets very few that stay far
SOCKSY is a mare
I would see that neutrally
Her last run was a career best run
Racing Post Chase rating of 135
Easily the best last time out number
Her last 2 runs both career bests
Suggests she can win off 125
Biggest worry is weight and absence
She has 11st 12lbs and 53 days off

BALLYMALIN has 9 Chase runs
Very well handicapped off a mark of 122
But he had some tough early races
He was asked to do a lot 2 years ago
Including a Midlands Grand National 3rd
In the last 10 months has raced just twice
Both of these were comfortable beatings
My worry is what 2018 took out of him
Has the horse already been bottomed

BIG MEADOW ran badly last time out
One of the younger horses in the race
Has a chance on his best form
He has also won on heavy ground
But so far not delivered in staying races
There is a stamina doubt as well
His sires runners on softer ground
Have not won a race beyond 3 miles

GREYED A flopped last time
Excuses as he was not fit enough
But that was his first run past 3m 2f
He is going to have to prove stamina
Horses like him sired by Daylami
Have a 0-29 record over 3m 2f +

Shortlist

KILCULLEN FLEM is a 9yo
He has had 14 Chase starts so far
All his wins have been in small fields
But offers stamina and heavy ground form
Hard to know how close to fitness he is
He has 64 days off one of the longest breaks
But he could win easily on his best form

ROYAL TARA has 6 chase runs
Generally see him as a positive
Comes here after a career bets figure
Going to have to stay and handle heavy
His sires runners in Class 4 or higher
Have a 0-33 record over 3m 5f or more
But his pedigree does offer comfort

Selection

ROYAL TARA 5/1

Each Way





Newcastle 7.30

4/5 Captain Lars, 2/1 Harperelle,
7/1 Discreet Hero, 12/1 Zapper Cass,
50/1 Roy's Legacy.

5f Selling race

Interesting race
Small field
Horses aged 3 6 6 9 10

CAPTAIN LARS is my preference
Think he should have too much class
His market rival has a lot to prove

HARPEREELLE is only a 3yo filly
She has 153 days off the track
Of couse she gets 27lbs weight
Which to be fair sounds quite a lot
HARPERELLE has been backed
At the weights you can understand why
HARPERELLE is rated 73
CAPTAIN LARS rated 86
Has to concede 27lbs to a 73 rated horse
On paper that would be unlikely to happen
But when you factor in class
HARPARELLE's inexperience
Not to mention her absence
The slow surface could play a hand
CAPTAIN LARS should be too strong
ZAPPER CLASS is risky down 2f
DISCREET HERO is underraced
Having only 1 race since May 2018
Find it had to oppose the favourite
Even if the weights say he will lose

Selection

CAPTAIN LARS 10/11-11/10

Win Bet




FUTURE BETTING ANGELS

Not too much I want to include today
Eider Chase is my main target race
But not much I can do on a Monday


Next Message

Ante Post Preview

Cheltenham Festival

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

Not sure when the next message is
Haven't decided about tomorrow yet
Going to look at the Tuesday cards
But whenever that message comes
There will be a full ante post preview
Of the Albert Bartlet at Cheltenham


TIGER ROLL

Just shocked everyone yesterday
Won over hurdles unfancied at 25/1
Expected to have been a prep run
Remarkable win given he was unfit
Down to 7/4 for the Cross Country
Has to be taken off the negatives list

He is now 14/1 for the Grand National
Unsurprising having won it last year
If he runs with credit at Cheltenham
He will go to Aintree with 3 prep races
His Chance has certainly improved

The previous 28 National winners
Had the following runs that season

4 3 5 4 8 4 4 3 6 4 5 6 6 5 9
6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 2 5 4 6 7

Only 3 horses
Won the race with 1-2-3 runs that year

2017 One For Arthur had 10 Chase runs
2011 Ballabriggs had 12 Chase runs
1994 Miinnehoma had 9 Chase runs

TIGER ROLL has 18 chase runs

No horse with more than 12 Chases
Has won this with under 4 runs that year
And well over 100 have tried and failed
So he is not as safe as I would demand
Even if we give him some extra credit
Having already won a Grand National
And being tough and game as a pebble



Supreme Novice Hurdle

5/1 Al Dancer 5/1 Fakir Doudairies
7/1 Angels Breath 10/1 Klassical Dream
14/1 Elixir De Nutz 14/1 Mister Fisher
16/1 Aramon 16/1 Grand Sancy

AL DANCER won the Betfair Hurdle

Given a Racing Post Rating of 152

This is how the numbers shape up

152 Al Dancer
151 Grand Sancy
147 Fakir Doudairies
146 Aramon
145 Aramon
144 Angels Breath - Klassical Dream
142 Al Dancer - Mister Fisher
141 Elixir De Nutz
140 Aramon - Aramon
139 Elixir De Nutz

AL DANCER is now top

GRAND SANCY won the Kingwell Hurdle
Given a Racing Post Rating of 151
Deserves a lot of respect on that run

But he has had 11 hurdle races now
The last 10 Supreme Novice winners
All raced 4 or 5 times over hurdles
They had 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 hurdle runs
GRAND SANCY feels wrong with 11 runs
No recent winners for decades match him


If we apply the 4yo allowance
Fakir Doudairies gets 8lbs weight
Leading numbers look like this

155 Fakir Doudairies
152 Al Dancer
151 Grand Sancy
146 Aramon
145 Aramon
144 Angels Breath - Klassical Dream
142 Al Dancer - Mister Fisher

FAKIR DOUDAIRIES is then top
Three horses are at least 5lbs clear
From the other expected runners

Still like the following staking
Given we are not getting 4 places

£7 Win Fakir Doudairies 11/2 (With a run)
£2 Win Al Dancer 4/1
£1 Win Klassical Dream 9/1

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