4 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet


No Official Bet


Betting The Message


4 National Hunt meetings
4 Previews

Still a lot of smaller fields
Low grade racing once again
Could do with some flat cards
Just to give us a bit of balance
We get 3 of those tomorrow

Today's message is a bit limp
Grand National Preview later

Chances in all 4 previews
Have not got a confident bet

My angles rightly or wrongly
Tell me this horse should win

Cork 3.15 - School Boy Hours 5/2

But not sure if he is fit
He is weak in the market as well
And I don't know if I can trust him

This bet interested me most

Today's Best Bet

Sedgefield 3.10

£6 Win Bet Ringaringarosie 6/1

£4 Win Bet Tetraites Style 6/4

Like the staking here
Ringaringarosie looks horrible
Small stubby mare
Will probably never bet her again
But like my arguments in the race

A day that's far from welcoming
Post Cheltenham midweek cards
Hard to get out of a lower gear
So saving myself for the weekend



Wednesdays Summary

We looked at 3 races yesterday
Returned 2 losers and a winner
Started horribly with two losers
Both shortish priced favourites
The winner was a decent price
Enough to cover those losses
No bets were staked from them
The think that pleased me most
We had a negative in each race
These 3 were all easily beaten
Felt I got all 3 races about right
But guessed or staked wrongly
Easy done and none were simple
But we didn't lose on the 3 races
And all the main angles worked


PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Sedgefield 3.10

13/8 Tetraites Style, 9/4 Miss Amelia,
11/2 Rossmore's Pride, 9/1 Pc Dixon, Ringaringarosie,
16/1 Casimir Du Clos, 20/1 Mutoondresdashorse.

Novice Handicap Chase

TETRAITES STYLE is rated 105
ROSSMORE'S PRIDE is rated 105

They are the class horses
Face 5 horses rated 92 84 80 79 79

Both have chances
ROSSMORE'S PRIDE is 11 though
He has not raced in 7 weeks
He is 4 years older than the others
Given this is a Novice Handicap
I can find 11 year olds resistible

MISS AMELIA rated 84 won last time
But the ratings of the horses she beat
Were well below the rating of 105
She should go well and could win
But I'm more drawn to others

TETRAITES STYLE looks strongest
But he is a short priced
Decided to make him a saver

RINGARINGAROSIE
Taking a chance on her

The negatives

Pulled up 7 days ago
Small horse
Stubby little mare
Not a fluent jumper

But 7 days ago
Over 2m 4f on heavy ground
At a much stiffer track than this
She ran her field ragged
One or two dodgy leaps
But went off far too fast
Would have won at 2 miles
Understandably ran out of petrol
If she does the same again
She could easily last home
She is getting 26lbs weight
From the class horse and saver
She could be an interesting bet

Selection

£6 Win Bet RINGARINGAROSIE 6/1

£4 Win Bet TETRAITES STYLE 6/4



Cork 3.15

7/4 La Tektor, School Boy Hours, 6/1 Acronym,
7/1 Macgiloney, 14/1 Bay Ambition, 20/1 Marshalled,
25/1 Sand Fly, Spoken For, Stellar Stow, 33/1 Comeragh Lad,
50/1 Aspire To Fly, 50/1 Stowvic, 66/1 Lessofdnegativity,
66/1 Lord Schnapps, 100/1 Ballyboy Bridge, Sexandthecity.

Maiden hurdle 2m 4f

Lots of dead wood in this race
With Bay Ambition an unraced mare
This should be between 4 horses

LA TEKTOR has challanges
He is an 8 year old
He comes from 2m to 2m 4f
Having had just 1 hurdle start
Having a short 13 day absence

February March April
Maiden Hurdles over 2m 3f +
Horses from 2m hurdles
Running within 3 weeks
Aged 6 or more
1 Hurdle run
Have a 0-103 record
LA TEKTOR fails this 0-103 profile

Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f +
Any time of year

Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from 2m hurdles
Have a pretty poor 7-308 record
Those running within 17 days
Have a 0-75 record in them
LA TEKTOR fails this 0-75 profile

LA TEKTOR could win
He has the best numbers so far
But the above profiles worry me

MACGILONEY has 166 days off
I have opposed this trainers horses
With absences quite a lot lately
As yet this angle has not let me down

Denis Gerard Hogan's record
With horses absent 94 + days
He has a miserable 3-282 record
His hurdlers doing this are 0-131
MACGILONEY the 132nd to try
I have to make the assumption
MACGILONEY may need the run

ACRONYM won a Bumper in November
He has had 3 hurdle races since then
His last 2 runs were heavy defeats
His numbers and going backwards

SCHOOL BOY HOURS

Looks the default choice
No safe enough alternatives
He has 96 days off

His 4 hurdle runs 3rd F 2nd F
Not ideal with 2 falls in 4 runs
And he has flashed his tail before
But his Racing Post Ratings are fine
He is a very well bred horse
Half-brother to Finian's Oscar

Not sure if he is fit
Or what he has done since December
But He has plenty of positives
His biggest opponents are all wrong

Selection

SCHOOL BOY HOURS 5/2

Win Bet




Ludlow 3.35

7/4 Sofia's Rock, 5/2 Hes No Trouble,
4/1 Cervaro Mix, 5/1 Good Man Jim,
12/1 Move Above, 20/1 Kadasa, 25/1 Wondergirl,
66/1 Biscay Bay, 66/1 Camlad Kingfisher,
100/1 Dadsinluck.

2m Novice Hurdle

Shapes up like a 4 horse race
All 4 of the main players
Have the ability to win this

SOFIA'S ROCK may be the classiest
Smart on the flat rated up to 100
He has the best hurdling numbers
What bothers me most about him
He is very exposed with 26 career runs
Yet he has raced just once in 185 days
Only had 1 run since September 2018
I looked at horses with his profile
Just 1 run in the last 5 months
Over 19 career runs and all 16 that tried lost
Not a very persuasive statistic
But he was not matchable to a winner
Decided to go each way against him
GOOD MAN JIM is the 4th favourite
Drifting worryingly in the market

CERVARO MIX was quite tempting
His absence does not worry me
Selection

CERVARO MIX 7/2

Each Way




Ludlow 5.15

11/10 Ballotin, 5/4 Arthur's Secret,
10/1 Delegate, 16/1 Hidden Cargo, 20/1 Numbercruncher,
33/1 Sam Cavallaro, 33/1 Dissertation, 100/1 River Purple.

Hunter Chase 2m 4f

Looks a match

BALLOTIN v ARTHUR'S SECRET

Both are 9 year olds
Both have recent wins

ARTHUR'S SECRET is safer
He drops down from 3m to 2m 4f
BALLOTIN in contrast is up from 2m

Hunter Chases
March and April
Run over 2m 4f or more
Horses from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a very modest 3-124 record

Those running within 19 days are 0-21
BALLOTIN fails this 0-21 angle

In Contrast

Hunter Chases
March and April
Run over 2m 4f

Horses aged 9
Deopping from 3m races
Running within a month
Return a 6-16 record in them

Don't know much about either
But a Hunter Chaser down 4f
Seems to trump one up 4f
Interesting to see if this works

Selection

ARTHUR'S SECRET 10/11

Win Bet





Future Betting Angles


Quiz Question

Name this race

1st Tiger Roll
2nd Chase The Spud
3rd Total Recall
4th Houblon Des Obeaux

Answers at the Bottom






Aintree Grand National

Making progress on this race
The favourite is a big problem

TIGER ROLL 5/1

Whilst Betfair was suspended
More money came yesterday
He was backed with all firms
He can be still be backed 5/1
But he is as short as 7/2 - 4/1

He is a spanner in the works
He won the National last year
Won at Cheltenham this year
Obviously ridiculously versatile

The general view of his chance
Seems to be that he is bad value
But by far the most likely winner
And easy to imagine him winning

I am in that camp as well
Despite him failing 1 major angle
So he's getting special treatment
And carried forward to a shortlist
We could save on him if wanted
But that's a decision for later on



Aintree Grand National

5/1 Tiger Roll 12/1 Anibale Fly 12/1 Rathvinden
14/1 Vintage Clouds 20/1 Mall Dini 20/1 Lake View Lad
25/1 Bristol de Mai 25/1 Rock The Kasbah 33/1 Valtor
33/1 Walk In The Mill 33/1 Pairofbrowneyes
33/1 Up For Review 33/1 Ms Parfois 33/1 Ramses de Teillee
33/1 Step Back 33/1 One For Arthur 33/1 Pleasant Company
33/1 Dounikos 40/1 General Principle 40/1 Go Conquer
40/1 Alpha des Obeaux 40/1 Abolitionist 40/1 Noble Endeavor
40/1 Jury Duty 40/1 Warriors Tale 40/1 Minella Rocco
50/1 Sub Lieutenant 50/1 Yala Enki 50/1 Mala Beach 50/1 Blaklion
50/1 Captain Redbeard 50/1 The Young Master 50/1 Outlander
50/1 Folsom Blue 50/1 The Storyteller 50/1 Singlefarmpayment
50/1 Blow By Blow 50/1 Livelovelaugh 50/1 Vieux Lion Rouge
50/1 Sandymount Duke 50/1 Daklondike 50/1 Tea For Two
50/1 Magic of Light 50/1 Regal Encore 50/1 Van Gogh du Granit
50/1 Looking Well 50/1 Call It Magic 50/1 Ned Stark 50/1 Rathlin Rose
50/1 Mr Diablo 50/1 Carole's Destrier 50/1 Milansbar 50/1 Borice
50/1 Ziga Boy 50/1 Baie des Iles 50/1 Shattered Love 50/1 Red Infantry
50/1 Cogry 50/1 Shantou Village 50/1 Joe Farrell 50/1 Out Sam
50/1 Ballyoptic 66/1 Bless The Wings 66/1 Just A Par 66/1 Don Poli
66/1 Polidam 66/1 Valseur Lido 66/1 Ultragold 66/1 A Toi Phil
66/1 Monbeg Notorious 66/1 Woods Well 66/1 Kilcrea Vale
66/1 Highland Lodge 66/1 Morney Wing 66/1 Potters Corner
66/1 Kingswell Theatre 66/1 Impulsive Star 66/1 Vieux Morvan
66/1 Splash of Ginge 66/1 Measureofmydreams 66/1 Exitas
66/1 Isleofhopendreams 66/1 Fact of The Matter 100/1 Scoir Mear

17 Days to go
81 Horses in the race

If you look at the last 3 renewals
No horses rated 141 or lower
Have actually got into this race

Horses rated 140 or less
Must be very unlikely runners
So I am eliminating all of them
We can always add them later

The last time we looked at this
Eliminated a lot of sub groups

Horses Aged 7

33/1 Ramses de Teillee
50/1 Daklondike

Horses Aged 12 +

66/1 Bless The Wings
66/1 Just A Par
66/1 Isleofhopendreams
50/1 Folsom Blue

The previous 23 National winners
Had the following runs that season

3 5 4 8 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7

They all had 3 + races that season
I won't accept any horses with less
The following horses fail this angle

12/1 Rathvinden
33/1 Pleasant Company
33/1 One For Arthur
33/1 Step Back
33/1 Ms Parfois
40/1 Total Recall
40/1 Noble Endeavor
50/1 Mala Beach
50/1 Regal Encore
50/1 Joe Farrell

No horse with over 12 Chase runs
Has won the Aintree Grand National
Having had under 4 runs that year
Well over 100 have tried and failed

TIGER ROLL fails this statistic
Having had 19 chase runs already
And only 3 races this season
But he gets special dispensation

The other horses do not
They are too exposed statistically
To expect to win with 3 runs this year
The Following horses fail this angle

BRISTOL DE MAI 25/1 fails this angle
He has completed just 2 runs this year
Not for me as he also has topweight

ANIBALE FLY also fails this statistic
He has 15 Chase runs and 3 this year
He was a good 4th in this race last year
Comes here again from the Gold Cup
But he had 5 prep runs before 2018
This year only has 3 previous races
And is racing off a 5lbs higher rating

MALL DINI also fails this statistic
With only 14 previous chase races
I could turn a blind eye to his profile
But he comes from a 2m 1f race
This is a huge 2m step up in distance

VINTAGE CLOUDS has this problem
16 Chase runs and just 3 this year
One of which he failed to complete
He is not the biggest of horses
He has raced just once in 100 days
Tough and full of heart but not for me

Other horses failing this statistic

DON POLI
GO CONQUER
BLAKLION
MINELLA ROCCO
PAIROFBROWNEYES
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT
ABOLITIONIST

Other Underraced horses

BALLYOPTIC has 3 runs this year
But has only completed in 2 of them
VIEUX LION ROUGE is underraced
Completeing just 1 run this season
SANDYMOUNT DUKE
THE YOUNG MASTER

Doubtful Stayers

LIVELOVELAUGH
SHANTOU VILLAGE
THE STORYTELLER
ULTRAGOLD
BLOW BY BLOW
OUTLANDER
A TOI PHIL

Other Negatives

Recent winners of the Grand National
Had the following Chase runs
16 10 13 10 14 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11

UP FOR REVIEW has 7 chase runs
He's raced just twice in 11 months
LIVELOVELAUGH has 7 chase runs
Looks underraced + short of stamina
RED INFANTRY won't have the class
EXITAS is not good enough
YALA ENKI isn't going to win
VALTOR has weight/absence isues
TEA FOR TWO surely not capable
SHATTERED LOVE may not run
This may come too soon for her
SUB LIEUTENANT offers little
MAGIC OF LIGHT hard to see why
WARRIORS TALE lacks the class

Last 28 renewals
Winners absence

31 84 34 29 23 35 58 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28
20 25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25

All 28 winners ran within 84 days
27 of the 28 winners ran within 58 days
ROCK THE KASBAH has 113 days off

Lack Positives + Class

VALSEUR LIDO
BAIE DES ILES
POLIDAM

WALK IN THE MILL didn't appeal
Won the Becher Chase off a featherweight
Question his class and his stamina
And his last 3 runs are over hurdles

JURY DUTY is an 8yo
With 11 Chase runs ticks boxes
But he has several flaws too
Flat bred and may not stay this far
He has raced once in 168 days
Can not see him selecting him

Current Shortlist

5/1 Tiger Roll
20/1 Lake View Lad
33/1 Dounikos
40/1 General Principle
40/1 Alpha des Obeaux
50/1 Captain Redbeard
66/1 Monbeg Notorious




Quiz Answer

Name this race

1st Tiger Roll
2nd Chase The Spud
3rd Total Recall
4th Houblon Des Obeaux


TIGER ROLL won the race

The "Virtual" Grand National

Computer generated race
Run via Mathematical Algorithms
Televised the night before the National

Last year the computer nailed it
Tiger Roll winning the 2018 race

They had the 2017 second as well
The data picked Cause of Causes

Not yet heard if they will repeat this
But I would imagine they would do

I'd like to bet they select Tiger Roll

***************************************************
***************************************************