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Today's Message

Time for a break after today
This is 12 messages in a row
The main bets are struggling
Suffering a nasty account run
So want to back off right now

No Monday message planned
Will get some abandonment's
So lets take advantage of that
Break for a day or maybe two

Aintree 1.15
Aintree 1.50
Wincanton 2.10
Aintree 2.25
Aintree 3.00
Wexford 3.10
Wincanton 3.55

Not sure what to expect today
Betfair have had site hold ups
The clocks have gone back
But it has still slowed me down
Given all this torrential rain
And a run of poor staked bets
I'm lacking a bit of confidence

That said
Feels quite promising
Technically a strong message


Wincanton 3.55

Eritage 11/8

Win Bet

Paul Nicholls says it's his best bet
It's also a bumper system bet for me
Won't be betting or staking this one
Just interested if the system works


Aintree 1.50

£8 Win Bet On Tour 5/2
£2 Win Bet Killaro Boy 4/1

Veterans Chase preview
Far better than I was expecting
But non runners shorten prices
Interested how the analysis does
But no interest in staking the bet

It would have to be a strong bet
One at a good price to tempt me
Into staking a bet on the account
There are none I'd stake today
There are some interesting bits
But at the end of a heavy stretch
Going to leave this one unstaked





Saturdays Review

Having a difficult account run
VISIOMAN the latest casualty
Seemed to be running nicely
Out in front and competitive
But as the winner took charge
He didn't last out for the place
Not been a good recent run
Messages otherwise feel fine
Just not picking winning bets
Only managed the two winners
Psychedlic Funk the highlight
But it wasn't enough yesterday
Cheltenham finished L L L P
This included an unlucky faller
A couple of bets at huge prices
A horse who almost won at 10/1
Overall with farcical conditions
The returns not too surprising
See the last loser unnecessary
Had no reason to include that
Definitely came off 2nd best
Abandonment did not help us
There was still lots available
We should have done better



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Aintree 1.15

11/4 Mr Muldoon, 11/2 Mighty Thunder 7/1 Hogan's Height
8/1 Laugharne, Smackwater Jack 10/1 Kalaharry, Win My Wings
12/1 Same Circus, 12/1 Uptown Harry, 14/1 Henrietta Bell
20/1 Bryden Boy.

3m Handicap Hurdle

October and November
Have 155 similar races

Hurdle Runs

35 Bryden Boy
14 Laugharne
13 Mighty Thunder
13 Same Circus
12 Kalaharry
9 Win My Wings
6 Smackwater Jack
6 Henrietta Bell
5 Uptown Harry
5 Hogan's Height
2 Mr Muldoon
16 Aintree races

MR MULDOON has 2 career runs
Both of these were over hurdles
Feels very inexperienced to me

Horses with under 3 hurdle runs
Have a 2-41 record in similar races
But none had under 3 lifetime starts
And the two that won were younger

Aintree Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class
Any time of year
No winners had under 3 lifetime runs
MR MULDOON has a lot to prove
He might win but 3m on soft ground
I'd want more than 2 career starts

BRYDEN BOY is far too exposed
Given he has 184 days absence
SAME CIRCUS is a mare aged 8
Not for me with a long absence

Last years winner
Was a 5yo with an absence
That went against the norm
Horses aged 5 and 2-33 in this
SANDWATER JACK another 5yo
Has a longer absence and more weight

Aintree has 15 renewals since 2007
Horses with 11st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-51 record in these races
SANDWATER JACK has this problem

HENRIETTA BELL has 11st 9lbs
Horses with her weight are 0-51
Hammered 70 lengths just 18 days ago

HOGANS HEIGHT would have failed it
Were it not for a 10lbs claimer riding
But he fails this interesting statistic

Aintree
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class
Any time of year

Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 76 days
Carrying 10st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-101 record in these races
The following horses fail this

BRYDEN BOY
SAME CIRCUS
HOGANS HEIGHT

UPTOWN HARRY is a 5yo
He has 1 run this year over 2m 5f
Can not match him to an Aintree winner
Some won at other tracks
But none from a Novice Hurdle

KALAHARRY is a 7yo
First time out this season
Several older types won first time out
Don't have a problem with his profile
But 271 days off is a long time
He has a poor record when fresh
His trainer has a poor record too

Shortlist

MIGHTY THUNDER won last time
Can he follow up with 13 hurdle runs
155 similar races in April
Horses under 7
Winning last time out this season
Over 10 hurdle runs
Have a 0-26 record following up
Statistically there must be a doubt

WIN MY WINGS is a mare
Outclassed on a Graded race
She could bounce back
2 winners prepped in the same race

LAUGHARNE has 14 hurdle runs
One of the more exposed hurdlers
But we have had past 8yo winners

Selection

£4.50 Each Way LAUGHARNE 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet WIN MY WINGS 8/1





Aintree 1.50

5/2 On Tour, 9/2 Killaro Boy, 7/1 Theatre Guide
8/1 Captain Redbeard, Our Kaempfer
10/1 Burtons Well, Monbeg River.

3m 1f Veterans Chase

THEATRE GUIDE is a 12yo
He is the oldest horse in the race
And none have won this race before
OUR KAEMPFER is also opposed
Seasonal debutants that win this
Tend to come from Graded races
He is the only one that does not

CAPTAIN REDBEARD has topweight
Starts the year on a career high mark
What bothers me most about him
He has never won before December
Most of his best form is in the spring
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
His 4 Aintree numbers are very poor

Every past winner of this race
Had at least 8 previous chase runs
BURTONS WELL has only 6 of them
Horses with under 19 lifetime starts
Have a 0-18 record in this race
BURTONS WELL has only 9 of them
Hardly safe with 664 days off the track
From a stable months without a winner

Feel the winner
Should be one of these 3

ON TOUR
KILLARO BOY
MONBEG RIVER

Hard to rule any out

MONBEG RIVER fails this statistic

Veterans Chases
Run over 3m or more
Any time of year
Horses from 2m 4f or shorter
Absent more than 39 days
Have a 1-34 record in them
Again not very persuasive
But he is not my choice

KILLARO BOY is a positive
Has raced twice since changing stables
He won after a long absence
Then produced a career best run
These factors get him shortlisted

ON TOUR has a recent run
Two things I like about him

His Aintree form is excellent
He has a 5 2 W 2 record here
Including 3 Racing Post Ratings
As high as 145 146 145

Aintree
Racing Post Chase Ratings

146 On Tour
145 On Tour - On Tour
143 Our Kaempfer
141 Our Kaempfer
134 Monbeg River
125 Carole's Destrier - On Tour
123 Theatre Guide - Our Kaempfer
112 Captain Redbeard
106 Captain Redbeard
101Theatre Guide
100 Carole's Destrier
98 Captain Redbeard

ON TOUR has the best 3 figures

The other factor I like about him

January to August he has a 0-14 record
September to November a 7-12 record
This is his prime time of the year

Selection

£8 Win Bet ON TOUR 2/1-9/4

£2 Win Bet KILLARO BOY 4/1





Wincanton 2.10

2/1 Zyon, 5/2 Dolphin Square, 3/1 Kiltealy Briggs
5/1 Jeremy Sunshine, 12/1 Punkawallah
14/1 Clondaw Dancer, 20/1 Eye Of An Eagle
66/1 No No Tonic, 100/1 Big Boy Blues
100/1 Whatcolourishe, 200/1 Bonne Nuit
200/1 Kalabee.

Novice Hurdle (2m 5f)

4 horses stand out
May not work out that way
But hard to make any case
For anything bar these 4
Opposing two of the four

ZYON has no hurdling form
He has 358 days absence
This is a big horse
May want a run to be fit
Never managed to win on debut
When he ran at Ascot after a break
Paddock Watchers said he needed it
JEREMY SUNSHINE is unraced
Will do well to win first time out
Over as far as this with no runs

Shortlist

DOLPHIN SQUARE 9/4
KILTEALY BRIGGS 11/4 - 3/1

Could bet both
Could have a burglary bet
Kiltealy Briggs is an option each way
I'd rather have Dolphin Square at 5/2
But doubt we will get those odds
Given it is not a staked bet
Going for a win and saver

Selection

£7 Win Bet DOLPHIN SQUARE 9/4

£3 Win Bet KILTEALY BRIGGS 11/4





Aintree 2.25

5/2 Stoney Mountain, 5/1 Garrettstown
7/1 Constancio 7/1 Howling Milan 10/1 Voodoo Doll
20/1 Notwhatiam

Handicap Hurdle (2m 4f)

7 runners
Not a race I can trust
The following angle interests me

HEAR NO EVIL has a lot to do
Topweight here and 654 days off
The following angle is against him

Aintree Handicap Hurdles
Any Distance
Any Class
Any time of year

Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 112 days
Carrying 11st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-52 record in these races
HEAR NO EVIL fails this statistic

With 4 non runners
Only 4 horses running
That statistic is now weakened
But hoping it still works out

VOODOO DOLL is bottomweight
Yet very exposed with 22 hurdle runs
Maybe he has not achieved enough

Don't have any strong angles
HOWLING MILAN is not my choice
Because 5 year olds are 0-24 in this race
He might win but he's had just 4 runs

Shortlist

GARRETSTOWN
STONEY MOUNTAIN

Selection

Small Stakes

£6.00 Win Bet GARRETSTOWN 9/2

£4.00 Win Bet STONEY MOUNTAIN 5/4




Aintree 3.00

5/4 Kalashnikov, 15/8 Frodon
11/2 Forest Bihan, 10/1 Bigmartre
14/1 Flying Angel.

Old Roan Chase

Worth a look because of the quality

FRODON is the class horse
KALASHNIKOV the big improver

Understandable that the market
Prefers the unexposed improver
But the history of this race doesn't

Past winners had these lifetime runs
26 29 44 19 22 15 32 28 25 27 19 15 30 31

The last 14 winners
All had 15 + lifetime runs
KALASHNIKOV only has 12 runs

Not sure if that matters or not
But going with experience here

FLYING ANGEL is the outsider
As he is 8lbs out of the handicap
But this is only a very small field

We could stake every other horse
And only have one that can beat us
Ugly staking admittedly but why not

Selection

£7 Win Bet FRODON 2/1
£1 Win Bet FOREST BIHAN 8/1
£1 Win Bet BIGMARTER 9/1
£1 Win Bet FLYING ANGEL 11/1




Wexford 3.10

7/4 Castlebrook, 100/30 Ego Des Mottes
6/1 Cherokee Bill, 13/2 First Class Return
8/1 Stones And Roses, 12/1 Batcio, Jakoby
25/1 Baily Gorse, Rare Deal, Roman Rock
28/1 Odds Or Evens, 50/1 Gigiplan Two Seven
100/1 Megara.

Beginners Chase

Several have chase form
Several are chase debutants
This race won by both types

CASTLEBROOK has his chase debut
He was not a very expensive horse
And he has 295 days off the track
We can't know how fit or ready he is
His small stable are not prolific
And are 573 days without a winner
EGO DES MOTTES ran 11days ago
Beaten 19 lengths over hurdle then
Hard to know how he will get on
Having his chase debut after that

FIRST CLASS RETURN is a 6yo
His 4 Chase runs went F UR 4 2
He is slowly improving at this
His 17 length defeat l0 days ago
Was better than it reads on paper
Down to a bad mistake at the last
I would see him as a positive here

CHEROKEE BILL has 6 Chase runs
Might win this on 4 of those races

The unraced Chasers
Are shorter in the market
Than the proven chasers are
Plenty of doubts about both horses
Decided to stake it this way

Selection

£4 Each Way FIRST CLASS RETURN 13/2

£2 Win Bet CHEROKEE BILL 4/1




Wincanton 3.55

11/8 Eritage, 5/2 Escapability
4/1 Avarchie 7/1 Namib Dancer, 20/1 Bells Of Barnack
20/1 Blazing Saddles, Destinys Choice, 33/1 Et Apres Thou
40/1 Greenview Paradise, 40/1 Huccaby, 40/1 Lots Of Luck,
50/1 Arctic Footprint, Top Beak, 100/1 Gaelic Surprise
100/1 Justu, 100/1 Sellingallthetime, 100/1Thirsty Farmer.

Novice Hurdle 2m

ERITAGE has bumper form
AVARCHIE has bumper form
ESCAPABILITY has flat form

ESCAPABILITY has a sprint sire
Why choose him on hurdling debut
His sires hurdlers are only 2-74
Hurdlers sired by Excelebration
Without at least 3 previous hurdle runs
Have a 0-38 record

Good system in October

Novice Hurdles over 2m
Male horses aged 5
Coming from a Bumper
Winning that race last time
Under 4 career starts
Absent between 3 and 9 months

Horses with this profile
Have a 11-23 record in them

ERITAGE has this 11-23 profile
Future Chasing prospect
Hopefully he will win this hurdle

Selection

ERITAGE 11/8

Win Bet



FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Contacted this week
By two Octogenarians
Both sent lovely emails
They are Aged 87 + 80
Putting their claims in
As the oldest members

Not much to say today
Mentally I'm a bit shot

Which is probably why
My mind has wandered
To an option for a new bet

The Bellissima Bet



Beautiful Bet 3

Premier League

Manchester City 3-0 Aston Villa

Early on in a new 5 match stretch
Man City won their game easily

Tonight 5.30pm

Liverpool v Spurs

Hopefully tonight will go well
Liverpool have a tough match
Trading around 1.55 to win this
Would be nice if they could do it

Called this the Beautiful Bet
So far it has been an Ugly bet

Very confident it will mature
Beauty's in the eye of the beholder




Beautiful Bet 3

Future Options

Thinking about this bet
The strategy and the format
Forget about the Bet 2
Ignore the draw no bet stakes

You could add other teams

Juventus for example
Their last 6 Seria A Games
Have finished W W W W W W

You could have this bet
Several times each week

Man City and Liverpool
Man City and Juventus
Juventus and Liverpool

Just 3 examples of this
All individual Beautiful bets

You could throw in Celtic
Maybe Paris St Germain

All you require is a team (s)
Who are particular dominant
And win almost all their games
You could add Rugby Teams
Or any other dominant sides

What about this for a strategy


Bellissima Bet 3

Italy

Seria A

Juventus

Inter Milan

The best 2 sides in Italy

Look at their last 5 matches
When playing the other sides

Juventus finished W W W W W

Inter Milan finished W W W W W

That is your 5 match sequence
Done and dusted already this year

I appreciate they drew yesterday
But not before a sequence landed

I don't bet much on Football
With the weekend messages
Just do not have the time

But if I did
And I bet regularly at Weekends
I would be running several bets
All with the beautiful bet format

Premier League Bet
Italian Seris A bet
Mixture of both as well





Rugby Union

World Cup

Name The Finalists

This split staked bet is now down
With England beating New Zealand

The other mentioned bet

South Africa 3/1

Each Way

1/3 Odds 1-2 Places

Will be at least placed
If South Africa beat Wales
This game is now in play
South Africa leading 9-6

Conventional opinion
Suggests they should nick it
But I don't have a strong view

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