4 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet


No Staked Bet



Betting The Message

Must choose the right days to battle
There is no merit in Valiant defeats
Looking at today's Doncaster card
Has to be time to wave a white flag

Besides clocks have gone forward
We have lost an hour of study time
Not planning to cover much today
What is written is not much quality

All morning the main plan has been
Non committal no main bet message
With my 8/1 best bet in the 3.10pm
That selection is now not running

So making my best bet
In the Ascot Veterans Chase
On the only horse in this race
That fits the races best profile


Today's Best Bet

Ascot 4.30

Junction Fourteen 5/1

Each Way

Not a quality message
It was never looking like it could be

There will be a message tomorrow




Saturday's Summary

Overall it was an effective message
Apologies for some logistical issues
Message had some unforced errors
One preview not in the correct order
Ambiguous staking with another race
That was caused by time pressures
Trying to sort the main account bet
Unsteady markets + late withdrawals

Putting the time of the message back
Would have solved several problems
This time of year 9.45 am is too early
Would have worked better yesterday

COLLODI was the main account bet
Ran well finishing second each way
There were 3 horses fighting it out
Not much between them at the line
Exciting finish and we got the place
Some good winners in the message
BANGKOK had been a potential bet
Never reached the price I stipulated
But important that he went and won
Always expect some disappointment
But we completely nailed Doncaster
The previews there went W W W P W
Included a Lincoln Handicap winner

I was very pleased with those angles
Read things right and in a good place
The Flat requires so much more work
No timing mistakes can be afforded
But some of the angles are magical
Assuming good timing & imagination




PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Ascot 2.10

5/2 Volcano, 3/1 Baddesley Prince,
4/1 En Meme Temps, 6/1 Brigade Of Guards,
8/1 Scorpion Haze, 20/1 Just Got To Get On,
100/1 Gibb Hill.

Maiden Hurdle

Several here have plenty of ability
But are still trying to win over hurdles
Many of them up and down in distance

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

121 Volcano
121 Volcano
119 Volcano
118 Baddesley Prince - En Meme Temps
117 Scorpion Haze - Scorpion Haze
117 Volcano

On Racing Post Hurdle numbers
VOLCANO has the best 3 figures
BRIDGE OF GUARDS is a big danger
Expecting him to be better than shown
Given the prices
VOLCANO is an important saver
Allowing us to go for a better priced bet

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet BRIDGE OF GUARDS 11/2

£3.50 Win Bet VOLCANO 2/1



Ascot 2.45

7/2 Scaramanga, 6/1 Praeceps, 8/1 Quantatmental,
9/1 Legal History, Zafar, 10/1 Le Milos, 10/1 Liva,
11/1 Our Power, 12/1 Bold Reason, 14/1 Al Kherb,
14/1 Idilico, 16/1 Deadline Diva, 20/1 Groveman,
25/1 Honorable, Playa Blanca, Teaser.

4yo Handicap Hurdle

If I was having a bet in this race
It would be Scaramanga each way

He represents one type of horse
Lightly raced improving hurdlers
Yet to be tested in higher class

Other types include handicappers
Class droppers failing at Cheltenham
In the past this race has been won
By all different types of horses

SCARAMANGA is ex flat
Has progressive hurdles form
He may meet one too strong for him
But there should not be too many
When you factor in other things
Things such as trainer reliability
Who are as progressive as he looks

Selection

Small Stakes

SCARAMANGA 100/30

Each Way






Doncaster 3.10

11/2 Buridan, 13/2 How Far,
12/1 Green Power, Tommy Taylor, Von Blucher,
14/1 Captain Jameson, 14/1 Jawwaal, 14/1 Naadirr,
16/1 Boy In The Bar, Danielsflyer, 14/1 Gabrial The Devil,
14/1 Louie De Palma, Quick Look, 25/1 Foolaad,
14/1 Ower Fly, Penwortham, Upstaging.

6f Handicap

The high draws would worry me
I am partial to an interesting draw stat
This was my best attempt

Doncaster
All 5f and 6f races since 2009
Horses absent more than 8 weeks
Drawn 16 or higher
Have a 0-58 record in them

Non runners hurt this angle
But wary of the high draws
With horses lacking recent runs
The following horses fail this

NAADIR - CAPTAIN JAMESON
VON BLUCHER - DANIELSFLYER
TOMMY TAYLOR

BURIDAN is interesting
Plenty of horses win like with his profile
What worries me about this big horse
His trainer is on record as saying
He takes a lot of getting fit
Wonder if he may be a stuffy type
And may take a run or two to be ready

Plenty of smaller trainers here
Who would not normally be associated
With first time out winners at this level
Take Von Bluchers trainers record
Her runners absent 92 + days are 1-137

My original Bet
Was to have been Royal Residence
But he is a non runner

My Saver bet
Now promoted to selection

Selection

HOW FAR 7/1

Each Way





Ascot 4.30

3/1 Josses Hill, 9/2 Junction Fourteen,
6/1 Bigbadjohn, Rathlin Rose, 13/2 Horatio Hornblower,
7/1 Van Gogh Du Granit, 9/1 Uhlan Bute,
16/1 Exitas, Loose Chips, 20/1 Regal Flow.

Veterans Chase

Open looking race
Happy to overlook the older horses
LOOSE CHIPS is now a 13yo
REGAL FLOW older than ideal
Happy to oppose long absences
BIGBADJOHN has the longest of these
He also comes from a Listed/Graded race
All 20 that did that failed in this race

Going to follow the best profile
That has worked many times before

Horses aged under 13
Coming from Class 2 Handicaps
That were over 3 miles of more
Beaten last time in those races
But completing the course
Not beaten by more than 20 lengths

Horses with the above profile
Have a 7-27 record in this race
Winning in the following seasons
2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 2017

Only 1 horse shares this profile
And he is a tentative each way bet

Selection

JUNCTION FOURTEEN 5/1

Each Way




FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



Upcoming Break in Service

Thought I better remind people
I am away on Holiday April 23rd
Will not be messages that week

Don't really want to go
But it's done and it is quite soon
So just reminding people about it




National League Update

Salford 2-1 Bromley

Reports of Salford's demise
May just have been exaggerated

Quite an amazing comeback
It was 0-0 until the 85th Minute
Bromley scored from a Penalty
Looked like they were beaten
But two very late Salford goals
Turned defeat into a huge win

Leyton Orient dropped 2pts
Solihul Moors could only draw
AFC Flyde only managed a draw
Wrexham were easily beaten

My 3/1 win double from Friday
Was beaten and I am delighted
I do like bets that I want to lose

Salford are now into 2nd place

39 Leyton Orient 77pts
41 Salford City 76 pts
41 Solihul Moors 75pts
41 Wrexham 72pts
39 AFC Flyde 68 pts


Leyton Orient still hot favourites
They have 2 games in hand now
These games take some winning
Not impossible they could stumble
Orient have a very heavy schedule

Orient next play on Tuesday night
The start of 4 matches in 11 days
Where they play 7th 15th 14th 10th

These are far from easy games
Every chance they will drop points
After those hectic 4 games in 11 days
They are playing the 6th and 3rd team
That on paper feels a horrible run in
Even if their last game should be easy

Leyon Orient 1/5

Salford 7/1

Solihull Moors 11/1

Winning the league still optimistic
But after yesterdays good results
With the Momentum behind Salford
Not impossible we still have a chance

A place is also looking much stronger
The bet of year probably wont win
But it is very important it doesn't lose




Aintree Generic Statistics

Expecting 15 Aintree Stats

4 already Sent
6 more in this message
5 expected on Monday


Generic Statistics 5

Aintree
Handicap Chases and Hurdles
Since 1997
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 56 days are 0-98


Generic Statistics 6

Aintree
All Aged Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Since 2000
Horses absent over 29 days
Over 8 previous hurdle runs
Carrying 10st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-101 record


Generic Statistics 7

Aintree
All Aged Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Since 2000
Horses aged 5
Absent more than 33 days are 0-59
Carrying more than 11st 4lbs are 0-22


Generic Statistics 8

Aintree
All Aged Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Since 2000
Horses aged 5
Have a 8-207 record
Those with 8 + hurdle runs are 0-95
Those with 7 + hurdle runs are 1-108
Those carrying 10st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-105 record


Generic Statistics 9

Aintree
All Aged Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Since 2000
Horses with 15 + Hurdle runs
Won only 5 of these races
Those aged 5-6-7 are 0-92


Generic Statistics 10

Aintree
Graded Hurdle races
Since 1997
Horses aged 5
Absent more than 8 weeks
Have a 0-51 record since 1997

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