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Betting The Message

An unfortunate bet free day
No interest in a staked bet
The racing extremely grim

Only 2 flat card on the grass
Neither Nottingham or Ripon
Are tracks that offer us much
More of a National hunt day

Only 3 Previews

Fontwell 2.15
Nottingham 3.10
Newton Abbot 4.10

The Racing is very restrictive
Have not found much today



Fontwell 2.15

Cold Fusion 7/1

Win Bet

You may remember this horse
We backed him last time at 20/1
Very unlucky fast finishing 2nd

Now since then
She has refused to line up
No chance of staking him
In case he does the same

You could have savers
I've suggested two in the preview
You could wait until the race starts
Bet him at a shorter price in running
Neither option available to everyone

Just wanted to mention this horse
As I feel if he takes part he can win
I am going to have a small bet on him



Newton Abbot 4.10

Flanagans Field 9/2

Each Way

Very trappy handicap hurdle
Felt had had plenty of positives
The market just doesn't agree
He is 6/1 and more on Betfair

I can understand that
He is 11 and has no sex appeal
The market could easily be right
But been through all the runners
My angles point me in his direction

Just has not been a day
Where I see anything decent




Tuesday's Review

Started with a good winner
Ended with the best bet placing
But had nothing back in between
Expected far better at Tipperary
But the ground went soft there
Heavy rain changed the dynamic
The split stake bet of the day
Produced a winner and the third
The saver Eight And Bob winning
He was too well treated to ignore
Linger ran extremely well in 3rd
Came very wide around the bend
Looking for a strip of faster ground
Ran further than the other horses
Still finished with plenty in the tank
I'd be happy to be on him next time




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Fontwell 2.15

9/4 Top Rock Talula, 7/2 Yamuna River
4/1 Cold Fusion, 5/1 Musical Stardust
15/2 Cassis De Reine, 8/1 Shadow's Girl.

Mares Handicap hurdle

54 similar races in June

TOP ROCK TALULA is a 4yo
YAMUNA RIVER is a 4yo

Horses aged 4
Have a modest 2-44 record
Both winners lightly raced

April May June July August September
Mares Handicap hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 4
Over 15 career starts
Beaten last time out
Return a 0-48 record

TOP ROCK TALULA fails this 0-48 angle
YAMUNA RIVER fails this 0-48 angle
She has a 0-18 career record
Thats down to stamina issues
Sire has a stamina index of 7.3f
The Damsire was also a sprinter
With a Stamina index of just 6.6f
I'd happily call her a non stayer
In every one of her previous races
YAMUNA RIVER is an unlikely stayer

TOP ROCK TALULA has 4 hurdle runs
The last of these was back in November
Has spent all 2019 racing on the flat
With her flat based pedigree
And the record of 4 year olds not for me

CASSIS DE REINE has topweight
Handicap debut and 97 days off
Hasn't show enough to overcome that

COLD FUSION is interesting
We backed her last time at 20/1
She was a fast finishing 2nd that day

That was only a Novice selling race
This race is going to be harder
But we had good reasons last time

COLD FUSION hasn't been staying
If you look at his sire Frozen Power
No Hurdle winners past 2m 3f
No Flat winners past 1m 5f
He has good excuses
For several flat and jumps races
That were over distances
In excess of any his sire had winners over
The middle part of his career
He was trained by a dreadful stable
In the previous few months
He has been with a better stable

No surprise if she wins
No surprise if she refuses to race
She was withdrawn on her last start
Because she refused to line up
That is one of the main problems

SHADOWS GIRL is consistent
I can forgive her well beaten last time
She is a small mare and best on sharp tracks
Her size puts me off but shortlistable

MUSICAL STARDUST ran 15 days ago
That was her first run in 222 days
Similar races in June show
Horses with 1 run in 2019
Having over 8 lifetime starts
Have a 0-36 record
MUSICAL STARDUST has this problem
She could be underaced
She could be on the bounce
But if she is neither she can win
I'd see her as a neutral positive with flaws

COLD FUSION is my preference
But have to deal with the big risk
That she could refuse to race
If she does behave herself
She has every chance of winning
Best plan may be to split stake this

Selection

Option 1

£6 Win Bet COLD FUSION 7/1

£2 Win Bet MUSICAL STARDUST 4/1

£2 Win Bet SHADOWS GIRL 6/1


Option 2

COLD FUSION 7/1

Win Bet





Nottingham 3.10

4/1 Ticks The Boxes, 5/1 Mansfield
6/1 Milton Road 7/1 Cliff, Queen Of Kalahari
8/1 Meshardal,12/1 Space War 16/1 Malaysian Boleh,
16/1 Poppy Jag, 16/1 Sandkissed
20/1 Raise A Little Joy, 25/1 Give Em A Clump
66/1 Celerity, Jacksonfire, Rio Glamorous.

6f Handicap

The draws I would avoid
Are the horses in Stall 15-16
RIO GLAMOUROUS drawn 16 hard to like
SANDKISSED drawn 15 likewise with a break

TICKS THE BOXES has a chance
But not a safe enough profile for me
OIder 7yo coming from a 5f race
Without having a recent run either
And has to do that from Stall 1

Go back to 1998
Every 6f Handicap here
Any time of year
Any Class of race
With 9 or more runners

Horses from 5f races
Drawn in Stalls 1 or 2
Have a 0-69 record
None have managed it
TICKS THE BOXES tries to be the first

SPACE WAR is 12 years old now
Down in trip just not safe enough
Several are not running well enough
JACKSONVILLE and CELERITY are two
MALAYSIAN BOLEH isn't doing enough
POPPY JAG's numbers are too low

GIVE EM A CLUMP won't be fit enough
RAISE A LITTLE JOY a filly first time out

QUEEN OF KALAHARI is a 4yo filly
Similar fillies with other 17 career starts
Needed at least 4 runs that season
QUEEN OF KALAHARI only has 2 runs

CLIFF has a chance
As a 9yo I wanted more recent runs
But my angles give disagree with that

MESHARDAL is down in distance
Difficult to adjust given he is a 9yo
Not a negative and does have a chance
Think he is running himself fit
He ran well last time so respect him

MILTON ROAD an exposed 4 year old
Has an acceptable profile and shortlisted

MANSFIELD is shortlistable
A good recent run goes a long way
Combined with the best numbers

Selection

MANSFIELD 9/2

Each Way





Newton Abbot 4.10

7/2 Woodukheleyfit, 4/1 Flanagans Field
5/1 Eric The Third, 11/2 Gamekeeper Bill
7/1 Ladies Dancing, 8/1 Atlantic Grey12/1 Jonnigraig
12/1 Show Of Force, 16/1 Cabernet D'Alene
50/1 Opera Buffa.

2m 1f
Handicap Hurdle
Conditional Jockey

Low quality race
Only 14 similar races in June

Most of the winners
Were experienced hurdlers
Horses with under 7 hurdle runs
Have a 1-33 record in these races
WOODUKHELEYFIT has 3 hurdle runs
No Handicap experience either
Not the types that's been winning these
JONNIGRAIG another with few hurdle runs

SHOW OF FORCE is a 4yo filly
No 4yo has won a similar race in June
If we look at Conditional Handicap Hurdles
Any distance and any time of year
Fillies aged 4 with over 3 career starts
Beaten last time had a 0-36 record
SHOW OF FORCE fails this 0-36 statistic
Can't bet her as a 4yo filly
Having had just 1 run in Months
OPERA BUFFA is rated only 61
She is unlikely to have enough class

CABERNET DALENE is out of form
Recently took a big stable downgrade
Hammered in recent runs looks weak

ERIC THE THIRD is a 10yo
He has raced once in 191 days

LADIES DANCING is a 13 year old
He has raced once in 211 days

Handicap Hurdles in June
Run over 2m 3f or shorter
Any Class of race

Horses aged 9 or more
Over 12 previous hurdle runs
Only 1 run in the last 3 months
Return a 0-75 record in them
ERIC THE THIRD fails this 0-75 statistic
LADIES DANCING fails this 0-75 statistic
Both horses very short of recent races

GAMEKEEPER BILL is a 5yo
He has raced just once in 104 days
Well beaten in that race as well
Don't see enough positives for him
ATLANTIC GREY has 3 runs in 2019
Well beaten in all of those races
He was lucky to win a small field seller

He ran over 2m 2f at Newton Abbot
ATLANTIC GREY finished 5th
FLANAGANS FIELD finished 4th

FLANAGANS FIELD hit the front that day
Didn't quite get home over a bit further
Looks to have a solid each way chance
ATLANTIC GREY could be a saver option

They met in their previous race as well
FLANAGANS FIELD again came out on top
Running consistently well
Against several horses with flaws
He should be capable of going close

Selection

FLANAGANS FIELD 9/2

Each Way




FUTURE BETTING ANGLES




Royal Ascot

13 Days to go now

Most races still very raw

So far looked at two races

Provisional Selections

Ascot Gold Cup

CROSS COUNTER 5/1 Win Bet
STRADIVARIUS 7/4 Saver bet

King Edward VII Stakes

PRIVATE SECRETARY 7/1

Each Way


PRIVATE SECRETARY

Early selection sent yesterday
May develop into a decent bet
Depending on which horses run
Can see him starting 2/1 or less
If the right horses miss the race


Ascot June 18th

Coventry Stakes

Still very raw
No entries are published
Can't know whats running
The market seems clueless
The best 2yo seen out so far
Does not look to be running
Not a race I can do this early

Since 2012
4 of the last 7 winners
Won a very recent 6f of 7f race
In the previous two weeks

Any horse that comes out
And wins a 2yo race over 6f or 7f
Could easily be the Coventry bet

At Epsom on Derby day
Pinatubo won the Woodcote Stakes
The 2015 winner (Buratino) did this
I would include him in this profile

But he does have other options
Need to watch carefully this week
For a 2yo that could win very nicely
Setting a Coventry Stakes marker



Ascot June 21st

Coronation Stakes

3/1 Hermosa 5/1 Jubiloso 6/1 Pretty Pollyanna
6/1 Castle Lady 10/1 Qabala 14/1 Just Wonderful
14/1 Maqsad 16/1 Happen 20/1 Magnetic Charm
20/1 So Perfect 20/1 East 20/1 Iridessa, Watch Me
25/1 Twist 'n' Shake 25/1 Foxtrot Liv 25/1 Main Edition
25/1 Mot Juste 25/1 Matematica 33/1 Coral Beach
33/1 Rocques 33/1 Secret Thoughts

Group 1

3yo Fillies over 8f

Another very raw race

HERMOSA 3/1

She is the best horse on the numbers
But she is far from likely to be running

She would probably win this Group 1
But she may run in the French Oaks
Coolmore want that for stud reasons
Right now I'm presuming she wont run

PRETTY POLYANNA probably will
She was 2nd to her in the Irish 1000
Can't rule her out at the moment
But I will be trying to find a better option
Not that keen on the stable
And having had 7 previous races
I'd have liked a 2nd race this season
Just wonder of she may be on the bounce

Past winners had the following runs
6 6 5 7 9 8 5 5 8 3 5 8 6 9 7 5 10 4 11 4

Only 1 winner in the last 20 renewals
Won this with under 4 career starts
That winner was Ghanaati in 2009
He won the English 1000 Guineas

CASTLE LADY has just 3 runs
French raider far from certain to run
She could go to the French Oaks too

JUBILOSO is only 5/1 to win this
Looks a smart Michael Stoute filly
But she has raced just twice before
19 of the last 20 winners had 4 + runs
20 of the last 20 winners had 3 + runs

JUBILOSO having 2 runs
Could be a serious disadvantage
Especially going up in distance too
Only 1 past winner came from 7f
That horse (Fallen For You) had 5 runs

MAQSAD did not stay in the Oaks
Looked at horses like her down in trip
The 2008 winner (Lush lashes)
The only horse that managed this
She would give Maqsad some hope
But this is still a 4f drop in distance

QABALA is sired by Scat Daddy
Opposed her in the 1000 Guineas
Partly on stamina grounds there
Faces the same question marks here
And was hammered in the Irish 1000

3 recent winners 2010 2017 2018
Came via the Irish 2000 Guineas
Two of the three won (2017-2018)
The other beaten under a length

FOXTROT LIL comes from this race
But she was beaten 5.5 lengths there
And she has stamina doubts here

IRIDESSA also ran at the Curragh
She was beaten a long way though
JUST WONDERFUL has the same profile
CORAL BEACH has the same problem
EAST was beaten 19 lengths in that
None are matchable to past winners
On the ground they didn't do enough

SO PERFECT comes from a 6f race
No winners has won this race doing that
Her sire is also not yet proven
In Group 1 races over a mile or more

The obvious answer
Would be Aidan to change his mind
And win another Group 1 with Hermosa

If that does not happen
Maybe the alternative approach
Could be hidden deeper in the betting

PRETTY POLYANNA is not ruled out
But I want to find one I liked better

HAPPEN 16/1 could be the one
Not keen that she comes from 7f
But she is not unlike the 2012 winner

MAGNETIC CHARM is respected
Horses from her trial race are 0-12
But could easily overlook that angle
Smart stable but the sire is a worry

TWIST 'N' STAKE is a big price
Hard to know if she is running here
But given some of the other horses
Certainly would not rule her out yet

There is strength in depth here
Several horses around 16/1-25/1
Who could easily be the right one
If Hermosa as expected doesn't run

The race is just too raw right now
But feel we have made some progress

To Be Continued

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