8 Races Discussed
1 Account Bet



Account Bet

Doncaster 2.00

ENCHANTED LINDA 4/1

Each Way


Hopefully all 8 will run here
There is a strong argument
This should be conditional
On getting the 1-2-3 places

Conditional bets annoy people
If we do get any non runners
Will just take this on the chin

Alternative stakes are given
But for the account purposes
This will go down each way




Message Highlights

Message of two halves
England in the afternoon
Bellewstown in the Evening

Sandown 1.50
Doncaster 2.00
Sandown 2.20
Sandown 5.05
Bellewstown 5.10
Bellewstown 5.45
Bellewstown 6.15
Bellewstown 6.45

Saturday is going to be heavy
Need to be on a war footing
So not overcooked this one

Bellewstown's previews today
Do feels better than last nights

Doncaster 2.00

ENCHANTED LINDA 4/1

Each Way

Shortlisted 3 in this race
Hoping all 8 will run here

If we get a non runner
Switch to having a win bet
And have a couple of savers
Society Queen + Queens Gift
This is a tricky fillies handicap
But the shortlist of 3 horses
Fit the pattern of all winners


Bellewstown 6.45

£3.00 Each Way EARLY CALL 10/1

£2.00 Win Bet TY ROCK BRANDY 4/1

£2.00 Win Bet WILD BOB CAT 6/1

5f Handicap

Obviously very ugly staking
We have 4 places available
We can not lose any money
If Early Call finishes 1-2-3-4
Or if either of the savers win

The Bellewstown race
Interest's me more with 4 places
But staking 3 horses 1 each way
Looks too complicated to stake
So going to leave this unstaked

ENCHANTED LINDA the main bet

If she had ran last week
She would be a highlighted bet
But that account is now saved
For bets that are more complicated

I see no difference in strength
Between either of the accounts




Thursdays Review

Quite a hectic 10 preview day
Tried to be clear about things
My evening stuff wasn't good
Warned that was very possible
Later races finished L L P P P
Only concentrated on two bets
The rest of it just not as strong
SUSSUDIO ran first and failed
He never seemed to get going
MICKEY was the days best bet
Thankfully he won very easily
Was it a mistake not to stake it
Probably but that's not unusual
Having decided not to stake it
The horses role was different
Rescue the top of the message
Thankfully he did and stylishly



PROFILES & PREVIEW



Sandown 1.50

9/4 Beyond Equal, 4/1 Exalted Angel
5/1 Miracle Of Medinah, Swiss Knight,
7/1 Leo Minor, Tinto, 12/1 Jumira Bridge.

5f Handicap
7 runners

The last 26 renewals of this race
We had 23 of those 26 past winners
Having at least 4 runs that season

MIRACLE OF MEDINA has just 1
SWISS KNIGHT only has 1
JUMIA BRIDGE has 2 runs this year
Combined with 162 days off as well
EXALTED ANGEL has 3 runs in 2019
Just one run behind him in 77 days

Shortlisting 3

All 3 have very recent runs
Decent recent form as well

LEO MINOR
TINTO
BEYOND EQUAL

TINTO is the youngest of the 3

Ideally I would like all 3 on my side
If I had to drop one it would be him
He has raced once in 47 days

The older horses on the shortlist
Have all had more recent runs

BEYOND EQUAL won last time
That was a Racing Post Rating of 98
Not only was that a career best run
It's the races best last time out figure
He is the Class horse but gives weight
LEO MINOR looks a must saver bet

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet BEYOND EQUAL 9/4

£1.50 Win Bet LEO MINOR 6/1





Doncaster 2.00

3/1 Lufricia, 7/2 Raheeb, 11/2 Enchanted Linda
6/1 Lorna Cole, Society Queen, 7/1 Fen Breeze
8/1 Queens Gift, 20/1 Rose Marmara.

5f Filllies Handicap

3 Past renewals
14 similar races elsewhere

The 3 past winners of this
Had 10 13 9 career starts

The 3 past winners
Had 5 3 3 runs that season

Many are drawn to lighter raced horses
But it is interesting so far in this race
Experienced horses have won
Those with at least 3 runs that year too

RAHEEB has 3 runs
LUFRICIA has 4 runs
FEN BREEZE has 4 runs
LORNA COLE has 4 runs

Look at the 14 other races
5f fillies handicaps elsewhere

All 14 winners
Had 9 or more career starts
Horses with under 9
Had a 0-23 record in them

The above horses
Are a long way off 9 runs
And none of those are safe

That stat could get broken
With 4 lightly raced horses
Including the 1st 2nd favourites
But until it does I prefer experience

ROSE MARMARA down from 7f to 5f
Another not like any past winners

If we stay with experienced horses
We are left with 3 better profile horses

ENCHANTED LINDA
SOCIETY QUEEN
QUEENS GIFT

If we switch back to this race
All 3 past Doncaster winners

Ran within 14 days
Came from 5f races
Lost by under 3 lengths last time
ENCHANTED LINDA matches this

Selection

ENCHANTED LINDA 4/1

Each Way


If there is a Non runner
Change this to a win bet
Saver on Society Queen
Saver on Queen's Gift





Sandown 2.20

7/2 Liberty Beach, Makyon, 9/2 Al Raya
5/1 Rayong, 11/2 Expressionist, 12/1 Dream Shot
14/1 Wentworth Amigo, 20/1 Aussie Showstopper
25/1 Bill Neigh, 25/1 Dazzling Des.

Dragon Stakes

2yo Listed race over 5f

Back in the day
Fillies always won this race
2007 the changes were made
Male horses now dominate
They have won the last 12
Fillies are 0-28 now since 2007

LIBERTY BEACH is a filly
Not for me with just 2 races

Past winners had these runs
4 4 4 4 3 3 2 4 3 3

AL RAYA is a filly
With just 2 runs not safe enough
9 of the last 10 winners had more runs

MAYKON looks fast
But he is not the biggest
No past winners came from the Coventry

Almost every winner
Comes from an Ascot Group race
This is the best profile

Male horses
Coming from a 5f Ascot Group race
Starting under 50/1 in that race
Beaten under 10 lengths in that race

Horses with that profile
Have an impressive 9-21 record
Won 9 of the last 11 renewals
Including the previous 4 as well
The following horses match it

EXPRESSIONIST
RAYONG

EXPRESSIONIST

Comes from the Norfolk Stakes

Go back to 2008 in this race
Look at horses from the Norfolk Stakes
Only 9 have tried in the last 10 years
They finished W W W W 2 W 3 W W
The Norfolk stakes is a brilliant trial race

I would have liked a horse
Who had 4 runs with the best profile
But my shortlisted pair have just two

But no horse in this race
Has more than 3 career starts
So having 2 runs reads much better

His problem may be 5f on fast
He could get run off his feet
Not sure he will have the raw speed
His Damsire has a 12f stamina index
That just feels wrong compared to other
RAYONG appeals more on pedigree

Selection

Small Stakes with this race

RAYONG 8/1

Each Way





Sandown 5.05

9/2 Biotic, 5/1 Club Tropicana
6/1 Lunar Deity, Sir Plato, 7/1 Gerry The Glover
8/1 Tajdeed, 10/1 Baashiq, 12/1 Chetan, 14/1 Kismat
16/1 Tobacco Road, 20/1 Ad Valorem Queen,
20/1 Daubney's Dream, 33/1 Golconda Prince.

8f Handicap

Several of these are unsafe
Sandown 8f races since 2011
Show horses aged 5 or more
Drawn 12 or higher are 0-40
LUNAR DEITY is badly drawn
This is his jockeys first ever race

KISMAT is drawn badly too
Not keen with his run 10 days ago
Hammered over 11 furlongs there
GERRY THE GLOVER is badly drawn
Just one run in months puts me off
AD VALOREM QUEEN a filly off 86 days
Lacks fitness and possibly stamina too
DAUBNEYS DREAM is absent too long
TAJDEED only has 3 career starts
Hardly ideal in a Lady Amateur race
TOBACCO ROAD a 9yo with an absence
Not raced over this short since 2014

CLUB TROPICANA is a 4yo filly
With both Stall 12 and 36 days off
She has a lot on her plate as well
BAASHIQ has 100 days absence

Shortlist

BIOTIC
SIR PLATO
CHETAN

BIOTIC won this race last year
He had several more recent runs
Won just 8 days before back in 2018
This year he has 38 days absence
SIR PLATO is running himself fit
CHETAN doing the same thing

Selection

£4 Each Way SIR PLATO 8/1

£2 Win Bet BIOTIC 9/2




Bellewstown 5.10

9/4 Marchons Ensemble, 7/2 Yulong Voice
5/1 Formyboys, 6/1 Cursu Mina, Total Euphoria
8/1 Borelli, 25/1 In From The Cold.

2yo Maiden 7f and 161y

MATCHONS ENSEMBLE is favourite
He has raced once before
Ran well an encouraging debut
But they went hard up front that day
Not convinced he was not flattered

FORMYBOYS has 3 runs
CURSA MINA from the same race 2 runs

Think I'd rather side with that pair
Having an edge in fitness/experience

Happy to ignore the debutants
TOTAL EUPHORIA rejected first time
YULONG VOICE rejected first time

BORELLI has raced once
Been gambled in the offices

I wonder if that is a fake bet
Don't fancy him on his pedigree
He will do very well to stay this far

Going with a split stake
Two horses against the favourite

Selection

£5 Win Bet CURSA MINA 8/1

£5 Win Bet FORMYBOYS 7/1





Bellewstown 5.45

6/4 Yuften, 4/1 Parabellum, Rehoboth Beach
5/1 Basrah Breeze, 13/2 Tennesse Waltz,
10/1 Clarendon, The Feathered Nest, 20/1 Measured
Poetic Light, 25/1 Gotohawkeye, 25/1 Khwarizmi,
25/1 Stamp Of Authority, 33/1 Pass The Cristal,
50/1 Iseebreeze, 100/1 Gormanston.

Claiming race 7f161y

YUFTEN is the class horse
He has the shortest absence
He should be too good for these

THE FEATHERED NEST is unsafe
As a mare absent 294 days

TENNESSE WALTZ beat Yuften recently
But that was on much softer ground
YUFTEN had problems in that race
And his career best RPR is only 72
YUFTEN easily beat that on Wednesday

REHOBOTH BEACH has a chance
But he is a lightly raced 3 year old
May not have enough against Yuften
BASRAN BREEZE is a lightly raced filly

YUFTEN is not the force of old
But a Racing Post Rating 2 days ago
Of 83 should really be enough
W W W 3 W record in Claimers
Feel his class/fitness is enough

Selection

YUFTEN 6/4

Win Bet




Bellewstown 6.15

7/4 Helen Of Albany 9/4 Sunset Nova
6/1 Enough Said, 6/1 Royal Court, 10/1 Al Batal,
12/1 Buzz Killington, 12/1 Zippity
50/1 Countess Matilda, 66/1 Smiling Emily.

5f Maiden

HELEN OF ALBANY is an unraced filly
Cost a few quid and a strong stable
But not sure you want an unraced filly

If you look at unraced fillies
Who race at this track
Any age any distance
Any race any time of year
There is a 1-101 record

That sole winner
Happened yesterday (Millisle)
So make of that what you will
But Drawn 9 of 9 and no experience
I would just prefer an experienced male

ROYAL COURT is so disappointing
Would win this easily on his best form
SUNSET NOVA another potential selection

Not sure I am right
But relying on experience here

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet SUNSET NOVA 2/1

£1.50 Win Bet ROYAL COURT 13/2



Bellewstown 6.45

4/1 Captain Power, 5/1 Sweetest Taboo
6/1 Ty Rock Brandy, Wild Bob Cat, 10/1 Bahlwan
10/1 Early Call, 10/1 Guiding Star, 10/1 Idalia
14/1 Gopsies Daughter, 16/1 Pillar,
20/1 Gillabbey Rock, 25/1 Associate Rock,
25/1 Downtown Diva, 33/1 Blue Suede
33/1 Irregardless.

5f Handicap

Did not think many could win this
Several look unfit and not ready

CAPTAIN POWER is hard to read
On the negative side 0-8 in 5f races
He is not too well drawn today
And has a nasty 83 day absence
On the positive side a stable upgrade
Gordon Elliot now takes control
But how likely is he to improve him
As a 7yo with 40 previous races

Racing Post Ratings
Last Time Out this season

68 Ty Rock Brandy
68 Wild Bob Cat
55 Sweetest Taboo
51 Guiding Star
52 Early Call
52 Gopsies Daughter
45 Idalia
45 Downtown Diva
39 Gillabbey Rock
38 Bahlwan
38 Blue Suede
31 Associate Rock
27 Captain Power
21 Irregardless

As the table shows

2 Horses stand out
On their last time numbers

TY ROCK BRANDY
WILD BOB CAT

Sweetest Taboo is 3rd best
Well behind on the numbers
But she does get weight
And won the race last year

Last time out she beat Wild Bob Cat
But she had a better draw that day
She is a lot worse off at the weights

TY ROCK BRANDY is a big player
But look at 5f races here
That have 10 or more runners
Horses drawn 1 are 0-29

TY ROCK BRANDY is drawn 1
That could well count against him
WILD BOB CAT has a better draw

We get 4 places in this race
WILD BOB CAT is only a 3yo filly
But so was the 2016 winner of this

I want to save on Both

As they are fillies
Running in a big field
I am making both savers

EARLY CALL is my selection

We have history with him
Backed him a few runs ago
He has had genuine excuses
Been watching him quite closely
More than good enough to win this

Selection

£3.00 Each Way EARLY CALL 10/1

£2.00 Win Bet TY ROCK BRANDY 4/1

£2.00 Win Bet WILD BOB CAT 6/1






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



Wimbledon Thoughts

Ladies Singles

PETRA KVITOVA 10/1

Had no strong view beforehand
Don't think many others had either
After the French Open the women
Do not seem to have a star player

Petra Kvitova 10/1

She has broken my heart before
She could also go out at any stage
But watching her victory yesterday
Why can't she win a 3rd Wimbledon

Only 4 players are under 20/1

Ashleigh Barty is quite beatable
Hard to win back to back slams
She has never done much here

Barty may play Serena Williams
One will knock the other one out

I would fancy Petra to beat Williams
Now she has lost her invincibility

Karolina Pliskova is a 4/1 chance
But only that because of the draw
She certainly is in the easier half
But has a 0-28 Grand Slam record
Never been beyond round 4 here

Don't like betting on good draws
Pliskova could well make the final
Because she met inferior players
But the best player usually wins it
And in the final she won't be that

Petra Kvitova

Will have to do it the hard way
But 10/1 feels very generous
There has been talk on an injury
But she seems to be fine with it

Feel 10/1 is a small interest bet
But surely she is currently value



On the Mens side

Rafael Nadal beat Kyrgios
Hard not to be impressed
I have backed him outright
To get Djokovic Stakes back

The impression I got
If Nadal does get to play Federer
I just feel he has too much for him
You have to draw blood to beat him
Could be wrong offers will differ
But I fear Nadal more than Federer

Federer whilst magnificent
Should not be the 2nd favourite

When he won his first Wimbledon
He was a bet of the year back then
But Nadal is simply a better player

Thats my take

Federer Derangement syndrome
Is now fully in operation right now

Bet 365

Djokovic v Nadal Final is 7/2

Best price around
Thats a very big price
I have backed this small
I have enough on anyway
Too many eggs in this basket

Any Federer fans who disagree
Can get 7/4 a Djokovic v Federer final
You could even use that as a saver bet

But if this tournament goes to form
It should be a Djokovic v Nadal Final

Novak will agree with me
When Federer was seeded 2
Djokovic said he was surprised

Thats code for him thinking
That Nadal deserved 2nd seed
That Nadal is a bigger threat to him



Bunbury Cup

I sent some statistics recently
Decided to apply those angles
Have a look at the main players
See where we are with the race


Ante Post

Newmarket

July 13th

Bunbury Cup

Kynren 8/1 Solar Gold 8/1 Ambassadorial 10/1
Mubhij 10/1 Spanish City 10/1 Keyser Soze 12/1
Vale of Kent 12/1 Buffer Zone 14/1 Jassaar 14/1
Lush Life 14/1 Above The Rest 16/1 Admirality 16/1
Alemaratalyoum 16/1 Aljady 16/1 Bambino Lola 16/1
Beauty Filly 16/1 Blue Mist 16/1 Breath of Air 16/1
Burnt Sugar 16/1 Cliffs of Capri 16/1 Cold Stare 16/1
Crossing The Line 16/1 Dubai Legacy , Aces 16/1
Flaming Spear 16/1 Makzeem 16/1 Raising Sand 16/1
Raydiance 16/1 So Beloved 16/1 Summerghand 16/1
Bowerman, 20/1 Dunkerron 20/1 Foxtrot Lady 20/1
Ripp Orf 20/1 Foxtrot Lady Great Prospector 20/1

7f Handicap

SOLAR GOLD is a filly aged 4
Looks to have an unsafe profile
Short of races this season
And coming from a Listed race

SPANISH CITY is not like a winner
Not as a 6yo coming up in distance

AMBASSADORIAL will also be wrong
No past winner had 1 run that season
None followed up winning a 7f handicap

MUBHIJ fails the same statistic
7f Handicap winners don't follow up
MUBHIJ is a lightly raced 4 year old
Horses aged 4 with under 9 races
Coming from 7f or shorter are 0-11
There are some holes in his profile

KEYSER SOZE comes from a Group race
That would make him unlike any winners

VALE OF YOUR is underraced this year
BLUE MIST has the same problem as well


Interesting Profiles

JASSAAR is a 4yo down in distance
Would certainly keep him on my side

KYNREN ante post favourite
Also has quite an interesting profile
Two recent winners aged 5 down in trip
7 Past winners came from the Hunt Cup
He was badly drawn in that race

Need to wait for confirmed entries


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