6 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet




Today's Message

Apologies for the last 2 messages
Have just about shaken a bug off
Didn't feel right until this morning

Today will put me right for Saturday
Which will include an Account Bet
One option for this bet tomorrow
Discussed in Future Betting Angles

6 Previews

Ascot 1.55
Newcastle 2.40
Haydock 2.55
Haydock 3.30
Haydock 4.00
Newcastle 4.55


The 3 Haydock previews
One is damaged by non runners
Don't feel good about these races

Looking for a best bet
Rather than a staked bet


Newcastle 4.55

Firsteen 4/1

Each Way

Feel this is a difficult race
Not quite good enough to stake
Not entirely comfortable right now
Suggesting bets on the sand
When the surface is riding slow


Newcastle 2.40
MR CARPENTER 5/2
Each Way
1/4 Odds 1-2 Places

Similar comments apply here
About the slow sand surface
But when you look at the bet
What is not to like each way
Only 2 places in a 7 runner race
But the only dangers are 33/1 +
Does loom and smell like a bet
Who really should be 1st or 2nd
Maybe it's just a bit too obvious
But If I was desperate for a bet
And could not risk a losing bet
This would have to be the one
This bet is aggravated burglary

Today's best bet

Preview 1 at Ascot

Ascot 1.55

£8 Win Bet COSMIC POWER 6/1- 8/1

£1 Win Bet AMARILLO STAR 8/1-9/1

£1 Win Bet MRS MERTON 9/1-10/1

The whole strategy here
Opposed a short priced favourite
Because of stamina doubts + draw
Oppose an unraced horse drawn 1
Club together 3 in the middle order

Not the best choice of previews
But working now back at full speed
This will put me right for tomorrow




Thursday's Review

Didn't feel very good yesterday
The duchess blamed dodgy plums
But I blamed some dodgy apples
Which her father gave me to eat
Of course she can't accept that
She has scapegoated the plums
Forced to cut the message short
Nothing back from the 2 previews
We had a faller and 3rd in the first
Imperial Act looked like a winner
But did too much too early there
He was racing on fumes later on
Should have saved on the winner
My 2nd choice and well backed
Bad staking decision damaged us



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Ascot 1.55

9/4 Klopp Of The Kop, 9/2 Bengal Bay
5/1 Cosmic Power, 8/1 Amarillo Star, 12/1 Capla Spirit
12/1 Mrs Merton, 14/1 Jim 'N' Tomic, 14/1 Paycheck,
14/1Seven Emirates, 16/1 Qasbaz, Queen Of Silca,
16/1 Visibility, 20/1 Rapidash, 33/1 Sacred Legacy,
50/1 Cupid's Beau, 66/1 Evaporust, Merchants Breath.

6f Novice

KLOPP OF THE KOP has 2 runs
Sets the standard on his last run
Will excite many on his last run
When 3rd to an exciting prospect
But he was beaten 11 lengths
But how do we know he stays 6f
I'd have serious doubts on pedigree
KLOPP OF THE KOP is drawn 17
That may not help in the last furlong
Overall he could be vulnerable late

In a race with strength in depth
Going to play the middle order

BENGAL BAY could easily win
But he is unraced and is drawn 1
Prefer to cover 3 horses
In the middle of the batting order
All 3 of them have experience
Should be capable of improvement
Don't need to find that much to win

Selection

£8 Win Bet COSMIC POWER 6/1- 8/1

£1 Win Bet AMARILLO STAR 8/1-9/1

£1 Win Bet MRS MERTON 9/1-10/1




Newcastle 2.40

2/7 Shauyra, 7/2 Mr Carpenter
20/1 Kuredu, 33/1 Battle Commander
33/1 Ideal Destiny, 50/1 Its Toytown
66/1 Alltami.

8f Maiden

Only 7 runners

MR CARPENTER 5/2 each way
Even with only 2 places available
Does have some merit in a weak race

SHAUYRA is a filly with 1 run
Down 2 furlongs on her 2nd start
Her profile is acceptable enough
She is the most likely winner here

But she is a once raced filly
MR CARPENTER has 3 runs now
Experience over course and distance
The surface is riding on the slow side
May just be more adaptable than her

The other horses
Are mainly unraced without support
Things could go wrong in the race
I'd like to swap trainers if I could
But on all known evidence available
This looks a good strategic bet

Selection

MR CARPENTER 5/2

Each Way

1/4 Odds

1-2 Places




Haydock 2.55

11/2 Danzan, 13/2 Hyperfocus
7/1 Royal Residence 7/1 Danzeno, 9/1 Youkan,
10/1 Unabated 11/1 Ptarmigan Ridge, 12/1 Alaadel,
14/1 Desert Doctor, 14/1 Tawny Port, 16/1 Harome
25/1 Ice Lord.

6f Handicap

Class 2 races

The 2 Class horses

DANZENO
HYPERFOCUS
Both have obvious positives
Not easy to win these races
Especially with a significant weight
But no surprise if one manages this
Going to oppose both on the draw

Haydock 6f races
Since 2012

Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn in Stall 11 or higher
Have a 1-97 record in them
DANZENO fails this drawn 13
HYPERFOCUS fails this drawn 14

ICE LORD drawn 15 also fails this
HARMONE also fails this as well

August September October
Class 2 Handicaps over 5f + 6f
Horses aged 4
Absent more than 50 days
Have a 1-90 record in them
Those doing this with 7 or more
Had a 0-85 record in these months

DANZAN fails this with 81 days off
YOUKAN fails this with 82 days off

ALADEL is a 6yo
Just 2 runs so far in 2019
Looks underraced to me
TAWNY PORT isn't running well enough
DESERT DOCTOR is a very exposed 4yo
With just 1 run in 83 days he is unsafe

Shortlisting 3 horses

UNABATED
ROYAL RESIDENCE
PTARMIGAN RIDGE

Happy all could win
PTARMIGAN RIDGE is the weaker
Not because of his absence
But how far he was beaten last time

The other pair are safer
Not really stables I warm too though
ROYAL RESIDENCE on his last run
Scored a career best on the figures
Staking the race this way

3 Non runners
Have spoilt my draw statistics

Selection

£3.50 Each Way ROYAL RESIDENCE 10/1 +

£2.00 Win UNABATED 7/1

£1.00 Win PTARMIGAN RIDGE 11/1




Haydock 3.30

11/4 Wild Edric, 6/1 Somewhere Secret
7/1 Came From The Dark, 7/1 Show Palace
15/2 Airglow, 9/1 Major Pusey, 9/1 Tomily,
10/1 Cool Spirit, Lathom, Marietta Robusti
16/1 Bellevarde.

5f Handicap

WILD ERIC is a 3yo
Ran well only 6 days ago
Racing Post Rating of 90 there

If you look at every other runner
The highest last time rating is 79
WILD ERIC is 11lbs clear on that

His last 3 R.Post Ratings are 88 87 90
If you look at every other runner
Take their last 3 ratings
None of them can match the above
He has the best 3 last time numbers

Throw in his short absence
Very easy to like his chance here
There are other factors to consider
Haydock on soft against older horses
You never really know what to expect
Rightly or wrong with his positives
And his numerical advantage here
Going to suggest an each way bet
On the grounds he should be placed
If he repeats any of his last 3 races

Selection

WILD ERIC 11/4

Each Way



Haydock 4.00

100/30 Alemaratalyoum, 13/2 Get Knotted
15/2 Jackstar, 8/1 Parys Mountain, 8/1 Lincoln Park
8/1 Molls Memory, 10/1 Right Action, 10/1 Young Fire
10/1 Whitefountainfairy, 12/1 King Of Tonga
14/1 Presidential.

7f Handicap

ALEMARATALYOUM is favourite
Understandable with a recent run
The 1 angle he fails in this race
Horses that came from Class 2 races
Have a 0-26 record in this race

Not sure how relevant that is
But past renewals of this race
Show winners had this profile

Male horses
Aged 3-4-5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from Class 3-4 races
Beaten under 11 lengths last time

3 Horses have this profile

PARYS MOUNTAIN
YOUNG FIRE
RIGHT ACTION

PARYS MOUNTAIN is drifting
Will do well to get home here on soft
Does look a minimum stakes race
So trying a speculative strategy

Selection

£2.50 Each Way YOUNG FIRE 14/1

£2.50 Each Way RIGHT ACTION 16/1




Newcastle 4.55

7/2 A Hundred Echoes, 11/2 Firsteen 6/1 Barbarosa
8/1 Scandinavian Lady, 10/1 Midnight In Havana
10/1 No More Regrets, The Bull, 12/1 Ghathanfar,
12/1 Paradise Papers, 14/1 Gunmaker, 16/1 Dirchill
16/1 Hitman, 33/1 Extrasolar, 66/1 Crimson Skies.

7f handicap

Similar 7f Handicaps
Run in September since 2010
Show horses with under 4 runs
Have a 0-30 record in them

A HUNDRED ECHOES fails this
Difficult task given a slow surface
Taking on experienced older types

DIRCHILL has 70 days off
Since the track reopened
Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn in stall 12 or more are 0-59
DICHILL has that against him
PARADISE PAPERS is a 3yo filly
With 4 runs hammered last time
Difficult to see why she should win

Horses aged 3
Absent more than 56 days
Have a 0-48 record in similar races

SCANDINAVIA LADY fails this angle
May not get home absent 224 days
MIDNIGHT IN HAVANA also fails this
Absent 127 days may be too long
EXTRASOLAR is outclassed
CRIMSON SKIES is outclassed

NO MORE REGRETS is a 3yo filly
Fillies like her from 6f races
With 9 or more runs are just 0-22
Not a safe enough profile up in trip
GUNMAKER running low numbers
And has to step up in distance too
GHATHANFAR seems short of class

Shortlist

THE BULL has a safe profile
But after 14 career starts
Highest Racing Post Rating of 55
Suggests he is quite limited

HITMAN has backclass
But just 2 sand runs in a long career
Could not be sure he will run his race
Fair price at 16/1 despite his doubts
But more likely than not he will not deliver

FIRSTEEN has a safe profile

BARBAROSA is respected
Didn't like him down from 10f to 7f
But I can find a winner like him
And he has the best last time number


Selection

FIRSTEEN 4/1

Each Way



Future Betting Angles


Cricket

4th Test

1st innings

Top England Wicket Taker

£7.50 Jofra Archer 9/4
£2.50 Stuart Broad 3/1

Result

Stuart Broad Won
Full Stakes returned

The saver bet won
Probably quite lucky too
Australia declared 497 for 8
The last 2 wickets didn't count
We just held on because of that
Joffra Archer was beaten up
27 overs 0 wickets for 97 runs
No England Bowler played well
Thankfully Broad did the best




Saturday

Kempton 3.15

9/2 Motawaj, 11/2 Kasbaan, 6/1 Kuwait Currency
7/1 Gossiping, 10/1 King's Slipper, 10/1 Arigato,
10/1 Mayfair Spirit, 10/1 Felix The Poet, 11/1 Directory
11/1 Freerolling , 25/1 Family Fortunes

London Mile Handicap

Had a look at this midweek
Identified some fresh angles
11 runners are now declared

Horses aged 3
Have a 0-37 record in this
The following are 3 year olds

Motawaj 4/1
Kuwait Currency 6/1
Mayfair Spirit 9/1
Felix The Poet 10/1

Every past winner of this race
Had a run within the last 38 days

Directory has 66 days off
King's Slipper has 73 days off

The problem I faced midweek
Identifying a safe bet in the race
If we decide to oppose the 3yo's

FREELOADING has 5 previous races
All previous winners had at least 7 runs

GOSSIPING has to go up in distance
None of his rivals have that problem

ARIGATO looks an ideal candidate
But William Jarvis trains the horse

FAMILY FORTUNES is the outsider
But comes from a good trial race
He is another up 2 grades in class
From an unreliable low scoring yard

What has changed
When I did the race midweek
KASBAAN had a nasty absence
But he came out 4 days ago and won
First run for a new stable
That race was as good as this
If he does not bounce he can win
Final decision to be made tomorrow

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