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Highlighted Bet

York 5.15

£4.25 Each Way ROYAL COSMIC 7/1

£1.50 Saver SPEED COMPANY 6/1


Big field so we will need luck
There is a choice of place terms
1/4 The odds 1-2-3-4
1/5 the odds 1-2-3-4-5
Will put this down as 4 places
But I would suggest you take 5




Betting The Message

The rain just keeps on coming
Hard to do expansive messages
With so many races disrupted
Reluctant to get too aggressive

5 Previews reduced from 7
Now Chepstow is abandoned

York 2.20
Sandown 3.45
York 5.15
Fairyhouse 5.40
Cork 8.00

Possibly the sexiest horse running
Perhaps a Group horse in a handicap
Herculean in the 3.45 at Sandown

Sandown 3.45

£6.50 Win Bet C NOTE 6/1

£3.50 Win Bet HERCULEAN 7/4

Decided given the task in hand
To make Herculean a saver bet
Much as he's the most likely winner
Feel I have the fittest horse here
As well as potentially the classiest

The only way to do a long message
When conditions are changing fast
Would be to put the message back
Reluctant to do that on a Friday
So trying to isolate just the 1 bet


York 5.15

£4.25 Each Way ROYAL COSMIC 7/1

£1.50 Saver SPEED COMPANY 6/1

Both horses have strong positives
Speed Company is the class horse
Could easily beat this type of field
Royal Cosmic running career bests
Comes here with strong sire stats
The main worry about this staking
Either horse could be the main bet






Thursday's Review

It was all a bit manic yesterday
Felt it was right to stake it low
Global Melody was my best bet
He went very short in running
He was matched at 1.01 to place
Looked the winner but he faded
We had a placed each way double
Feel quite unlucky not to win that
I made a mess of the listed race
Conditions made things difficult
Right to adopt a very low profile
But Just did not get enough right


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


York 2.20

4/1 Archie Perkins, 6/1 Sputnik Planum, 7/1 Ghalib
8/1 Swift Emperor, 11/1 Addis Ababa 12/1 Delph Crescent,
12/1 Mikmak, 12/1 Pioneering 14/1 Top Notch Tonto,
14/1 Zabeel Star, 16/1 Beverley Bullet
16/1 Music Seeker, 25/1 Empress Ali, 33/1 Jamih

10f Handicap

Middle draws are best
I'd avoid the very low and high

Stalls 1 and 2 are not helpful
York 10f races
10 or more runners
Since 2000
Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn in Stalls 1-2
Have a 0-95 record in them
GHALIB has drawn stall 1
That would put me off his chance
SWIFT EMPEROR is drawn 2
Not a good draw for a 7 year old

Many of the high draws are unfancied
PIONEERING is short of runs this year
He could easily be on the bounce here

BEVERLEY BULLET is hard to read
Like his lightweight and his recent run
Could build a case for him based on that
But he is bottomweight up in class
Out of the weights will he have the class

One of the main issues
Which of several of these horses
Will stay 10f in soft in this class
Those unproven include these

Addis Ababa
Mikmak
Delph Crescent
Archie Perkins

ARCHIE PERKINS won last time
But he is up in class and in the weights
This is likely to be much softer ground
And his sire worries me given all that

SPUTNIK PLANUM has a chance
Matched to 1 winner in a small field

ADDIS ABABA has plenty of positives
Two career best runs in his last 3 races
Sandwiched between was a race over 12f
Which he didn't stay from a bad draw
Could easily outclass these if he stays

MIKMAK has a solid enough profile
If goes to an exposed type could be him


Selection

£4.50 Each Way ADDIS ABABA 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet MIKMAK 8/1




Sandown 3.45

9/4 Herculean, 13/2 Mandarin, 8/1 Allegiant
9/1 Mr Scaramanga, 9/1 Badenscoth, 10/1 C Note
11/1 He's Amazing, 12/1 Frontispiece, Sing Out Loud
14/1 Secret Art, Tralee Hills, 25/1 Noble Gift
25/1 Rotherwick.

10f Handicap

HERCULEAN has been all the rage

He is Topweight rated 91
Has to conceded weight to every horse
And do that with a 231 day absence

Despite that - he is a big positive
He smells very much like the old cliche
A Group horse in a Handicap

His trainer Roger Charlton
Won this race in 2013
With a once raced seasonal debutant
HERCULEAN looks laid out for this race

He is a big powerful son of Frankel
Excited many when winning on his debut
He impressed all the clockwatchers
At the time he was in the 2000 Guineas

Lightly raced horses do well in this
The last 4 winners had 7 4 6 9 runs
I would fancy him to outclass these

HERCULEAN is rated 96

He only faces a 0-86 class field

ROTHERWICK rated 86 is underraced
He is 40/1 aged 7 with 1 run in months

BADENSCOTH is also 86
He has been running on the sand
Sired by Foxwedge he will do well to stay
None by this sire have over 10f + on soft

HE'S AMAZING is rated 86
He comes here pulling up last time

NOBLE GIFT is an out of form 9yo
He does not offer much competition

HERCULEAN has little to beat here

FRONTISPIECE has 62 days off
He has raced just once in Months
ALLEGIANT far from certain to stay
None by this sire have over 10f + on soft
SING OUT LOUD has a long absence
Having just downgraded stables as well

TRALEE HILLS could be a threat
But he too has a nasty absence to overcome

MR SCARAMANGA has ability
But never done this far on soft before

There are dangers
Most resistant comes from these

C NOTE an exposed 6yo
But has a very good recent run

MANDARIN should go well
Said to want soft and a threat

HERCULEAN
Has found a soft race
He has to make the staking plan
Could easily go with him as a win bet
I am temped by an each way double

But if I run his profile
And look at every 4yo like him
Trying to win a similar races
On soft with an absence
With a big weight and under 5 runs
I find that at any time of year
There were 21 that tried
Only 1 of those managed to win

HERCULEAN is therefore a saver
Whilst the staking is not easy on the eye
I think the best way to play this race

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet C NOTE 6/1

£3.50 Win Bet HERCULEAN 7/4






York 5.15

9/2 Speed Company, 11/2 Roar, 7/1 Royal Cosmic
8/1 Burn Some Dust, 10/1 Appointed, 12/1 Auxiliary
12/1 Champagne Rules, Framley Garth, Kilowatt,
14/1 Medalla De Oro, 16/1 Paco's Prince, Sempre Presto
20/1 Itlaaq, 25/1 Aldreth, Bill Cody, Rayna's World,
25/1 Thawry, 33/1 Diodorus, Regal Mirage.

12f Apprentice handicap

ROAR comes here winning last time
But he would be risky from Stall 1

York 12f handicaps
Since 2007
Over 8 runners
Horses drawn 1
Have a 1-102 record
That winner was younger

I don't want extreme draws here
12f Handicaps since 2015
Show horses drawn 14 or more
Have a 0-53 record in these races
BURN SOME DUST is drawn high in 18
Has that combined with 254 days absence
MEDALLA DE ORO has the worst draw
RAYNAS WORLD is not well drawn
Filly well beaten in recent races

Several of these look underraced
Given this is 12f and on softer ground

AUXILIARY has raced once in Months
BILL CODE is underraced this year
KILOWATT has raced once since 2017
ALDRETH badly drawn the same problem
ITLAAQ is 13 years old absent 334 days

DIODORUS is running low numbers
THAWRY has the same problem
SEMPRE PRESTO is a 4yo filly
Hasn't been running well enough
REGAL MIRAGE is out of form
PACO'S PRINCE has to go up in distance
Would not be my choice doing that
FRAMLEY GARTH is a 7yo
He has recently downgraded yards
To a small yard with a poor record
He's unproven on soft over this far

APPOINTED has a chance
But she is an older mare
Who has not won in a long time

CHAMPAGNE RULES is shortlistable
He is 8 older than all past winners
Has never won off his current rating

ROYAL COSMIC won over 14f last time
Hard to match as an older mare
But she is fit and running well
If you look at her Racing Post Ratings
Her last run was a career best figure
After 28 career starts now
Her best 4 Racing Post Ratings
Have come on her last 4 starts
That could be very significant
Also consider her sires runners
Running over 12f or more
Class 3 or lower on soft ground
Only 4 have ran finishing W W W W
They have all won which is reassuring

SPEED COMPANY is a positive
Won last time off a rating of 80
He is topweight and the class horse
He has been rated as high as 100 before
He had dropped from 96 to 80
Won off 80 and now has a rating of 85

SPEED COMPANY can win off 85
If you look at the other topweights
Aldreth rated 80 is very short of runs
Medalla De Oro rated 79 drawn 19 of 19
Kilowatt rated 78 just 1 run since 2017
Not difficult to get all those beaten

SPEED COMPANY then faces a 0-75
The horse rated 75 (Roar) has a bad draw
Diodorus also rated 75 is a 50/1 outsider
SPEED COMPANY could outclass these
With most of her dangers rated 74 or lower

Shortlist

SPEED COMPANY 6/1
ROYAL COSMIC 7/1

Selection

£4.25 Each Way ROYAL COSMIC 7/1

£1.50 Saver SPEED COMPANY 6/1

1/4 The odds 1-2-3-4
or
1/5 the odds 1-2-3-4-5





Fairyhouse 5.40

5/2 Limit Long, 7/2 Clashaniska, 4/1 Independent Missy
9/2 Rita Levi, 7/1 No Nay Yellow, 14/1 De Main Lady
14/1 Designation, Marwari, 20/1 Sun Sign, 33/1 Grufalo
40/1 Olaf's Boy, 50/1 Mons Lady, 66/1 Cuchonnact Maguire
66 /1 Happaugue, Jungle Gazelle, Keep Dreaming
100/1 Beyabehla, Broadway Queen.

6f Maiden

LIMIT LONG is well backed
Rightly so given his numbers

CLASHANISKA makes some appeal
Did consider him as an each way bet
But he is not the biggest of horses

INEPENDANT MISSY is drawn 1
She was 66/1 on his racecourse debut
Don't feel drawn to her
RITA LEVI is drawn 19
Too radical a choice with low numbers
NO NAY NEVER a debutant drawn 17
That is going to make his task tough

I would split stake this race
Surprised if we lost with this staking

Selection

£5 Win LIMIT LONG 6/4

£5 Place CLASHANISKA 11/10




Cork 8.00

13/8 Mackqeez, 5/1 Halimi, 13/2 Quote, 8/1 Rayounpour
8/1 The Tooth Fairy, 10/1 Marfa Lights, 14/1 Karasheni
20/1 No Say Ever, 25/1 El Chico Mejor, Gotohawkeye,
20/1 Newgirlintown, Pepper'n Salt, 50/1 Nicola's Fancy,
50/1 Takarengo, 66/1 Military Poet, 66/1 Tyriana,
100/1 Big Bad Loans, Lizbuncon.

10f Maiden
Not many can win this

MACKQEEZ is drawn 15
THE TOOTH FAIRY drawn 14
Neither are helpful draws
Horses with under 8 runs
Drawn 11 or higher are 1-32
In all Cork 10f races

Not a good enough argument
To rule either of these two out
None of the main runners here
Have good enough negatives

HALIMI has the momentum
Like his profile down in trip
Comes here 10 days after that
Good draw the percentage call

Selection

Small Stakes

HALIMI 4/1

Each Way




FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Royal Ascot

Reported yesterday

17mm of rain in the last 24 hrs
82mm of rain in the last 7 days
Too early to assume bad ground
Some predict a heatwave next week

One noticeable thing this year
Most races are 1/5 the odds 1-2-3
Ascot 2018 most were 1/4 1-2-3-4
Bookmakers are tightening things
That is one of the primary reasons
Not to suggest any ante post bets


Tuesday Entries

These have now been made
Just making a few observations
Looking at a couple of races

Coventry Stakes

King's Stand Stakes



Tuesday Ascot 2.30

Queen Anne Stakes

Covered this race yesterday
The provisional selection for this
LE BRIVADO each way around 4/1

There are 18 horses entered
Half of these are 33/1 or more
I would expect around 15 runners
Quite a friendly race for Royal Ascot



Tuesday Ascot 3.00

Coventry Stakes

4/1 Arizona 5/1 Visinari 7/1 Threat
7/1 Siskin 10/1 Sunday Sovereign 12/1 Guildsman
16/1 Pinatubo 20/1 Air Force Jet 20/1 Fort Myers
20/1 Well Of Wisdom 25/1 Monoski 25/1 Royal Lytham
25/1 Temple Of Heaven 25/1 Ventura Rebel 25/1 Mount Fuji
25/1 Light Angel 33/1 King Neptune 33/1 Maxi Boy
33/1 Platinum Star 33/1 Golden Horde 33/1 Harpocrates
33/1 Iffraaz 33/1 King of Athens 33/1 New World Tapestry
33/1 Makyon 33/1 Summer Sands 33/1 Coase 33/1 Dubai Station
40/1 Lord of The Lodge 40/1 Majestic Sands 40/1 Full Authority
50/1 Dark Vader 66/1 Boma Green 66/1 Kuwait Direction
66/1 Ohio State 66/1 Flash Henry 100/1 Ropey Guest

Finally have some entries
37 horses are in this race

Over 20 of these runners
Are 40/1 and more on Betfair
Not that much strength in depth

Racing Post Ratings

104 Siskin
103 Sunday Sovereign
99 Monoski
98 Siskin - Arizona - Fort Myers - Well Of Wisdom
98 Visinari - Temple Of Heaven
97 Sunday Sovereign
96 Pinatubo
95 Air Force Jet
94 Threat - Ventura Rebel
88 Arizona - Well Of Wisdom
87 Air Force Jet
86 Monoski - Pinatubo
85 Temple Of Heaven
83 Fort Myers

SISKIN tops the numbers
Far from certain to be running
May go to the Railway Stakes

SUNDAY SOVEREIGN has 3 runs
Comes out 2nd best on the numbers
He fails the following statistic

Coventry Stakes
Horses from 5f races
Having 3 or more career runs
Have a 0-20 record in the Coventry
SUNDAY SOVEREIGN fails this angle

I'd be inclined to ignore that
If he has a good draw on this ground
He has experience and impressive numbers
But another that is not certain to run

Two interesting statistics

Coventry Stakes
Horses with 1 run
Coming from 6f or shorter
Running within 27 days
Have a disappointing 1-68 record
The 1 winner Calyx last season
The following horses fails this

GUILDSMAN
ROYAL LYTHAM
VISINARI
AIR FORCE JET

Some of the bigger priced horses
Also failing this statistic are these
Coase - Iffraaz - King Of Athens
Majestic Sands - New World Tapestry

The above angle
Feeds into this one as well

2yo Group races over 6f
Any time of year
Horses with 1 run
Coming from 6f or shorter
Running within 12 days
Have a 1-40 record
The only horse to win
Was Calyx in this race last year
He was the first to overcome that

Obviously not an easy thing to do
The following horses share this profile

GUILDSMAN
ROYAL LYTHAM
VISINARI

VISINARI is 5/1 second favourite
The above stat does put me off him

Horses from 5f races
Having had 1 career start
Have a 0-24 record in the Coventry

MOUNT FIJI fails this angle

THREAT who is fancied around 7/1
Also has this 0-24 profile as well

Aidan O'Brien

He has 9 of the 37 entries
ARIZONA looks like the stable choice
I see no reason why he should not win
When you consider the above angles
Show negatives for several of his rivals

Potential Selections

ARIZONA
SUNDAY SOVEREIGN
SISKIN
PINATUBO
FORT MYERS
WELL OF WISDOM

Need to see ground and draw
And how many of these get declared





Tuesday Ascot 3.40

King's Stand Stakes

Battaash 15/8 Blue Point 3/1 Mabs Cross 7/1
Sergei Prokofiev 8/1 Imprimis 10/1 Soldier's Call 16/1
Equilateral 16/1 Signora Cabello 16/1 So Perfect
20/1 Houtzen 33/1 Judicial 66/1 Gossamer Wings
66/1 Fairyland 66/1 Enzo's Lad 66/1 All The King's Men
100/1 Fantasy 100/1 St Patrick's Day

17 Horses declared
8 are 40/1 + on Betfair
It is incredible this year
As many as 8 of the 17 runners
Are only 3 year olds

That has not happened in 20 years
Over half the field are 3 year olds

3 year olds

8/1 Sergei Prokofiev
16/1 So Perfect
16/1 Soldier's Call
66/1 Signora Cabello
66/1 Gossamer Wings
66/1 Fairyland
66/1 All The King's Men
100/1 Fantasy

Horses aged 3
Won in 1999 2002 2008 2017

They had 5 9 4 7 career starts

None of them won on softer ground
They were drawn in stalls 18 11 10 16

I'd find it hard to accept a 3yo
If the ground was on the soft side
So Perfect is going down in trip
Signora Cabello is going down in trip

SERGEI PROKOFIEV has 10 runs
Thats more than previous 3yo winners
With 45 days off he would be risky
I would prefer older horses here

BLUE POINT has 80 days off
Made the point in yesterday's message
If the ground is on the softer side
Older horses with absences struggle
He is obviously very smart
But that is a worrying absence

HOUTZEN is an Australian filly
Long absence but not ruled out
Need to understand more about her
IMPRIMIS is another Australian
Similar comments apply to her

EQUILATERAL has some good form
Not always been convincing though
He will also be his stables 2nd string

MABS CROSS has the ability
The doubt would be if it was soft

BATTASH is the class horse
But 2/1 is plenty short enough

This horse has failed many times
Beaten at 11/10 4/5 9/4 since 2018

He's had some good days as well
But there is an unreliability factor
He has boiled over on occasions

He certainly wont be a win bet
Won't be in any multiples either
Maybe he is the obvious saver ?

This is not going to be an easy choice
But if you take out the 3 year olds
And ignore the rank outsiders
There are just 6 likely selections

BLUE POINT
HOUTZEN
IMPRIMIS
EQUILATERAL
MABS CROSS
BATTASH
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