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Chepstow 6.40

COOL STRUTTER 10/1

Each Way


Very speculative bet today
The riskiest of my options
But at the price going with it

Would have been happier
With him as a highlighted bet
But as a straight forward bet
Should be using the account



Today's Message

9 Preview message
However it comes across
It's not been very well timed

Doesn't feel like a day
That a high strike rate is likely
Always amazes me on a Thursday
How many horses are running
Where do they all come from

Maybe I blew my chance yesterday
In deciding not to stake any bets

Salisbury 1.50
Beverley 2.00
Beverley 2.30
Beverley 3.00
Beverley 3.30
Chepstow 5.00
Tramore 5.45
Chepstow 6.40
Yarmouth 6.55

Lost one potential bet
Which was the 3pm Beverley

That leaves me 2 options


Beverley 3.30

£4 Each Way SUWAAN 5/1-11/2

£2 Win Bet GUARDIA SVIZZERA 4/1-9/2

1/4 Odds 1-2-3


Chepstow 6.40
COOL STRUTTER 10/1
Each Way


The Beverley 3.30pm bet
Would be by far the safest
But we have lost the 4th place
Having had some non runners
Which could have an impact
On the higher drawn horses
Bad draws are now less toxic
It is also now more complicated

COOL STRUTTER

Far less likely to win

I wish I had a similar type
That I could combine with him
In 2 x £2.50 each way singles
But I don't have one I can trust
Fantasy Justifier came closest

The rewards at 10/1 greater
But the risks are also far higher
Decided to go with him





Wednesday's Summary

The 6 previews went W P L L L W
Started well than just lost its way
Before an excellent final rescue
Kendred Soul won in the opener
Suggested two each way doubles
Given that the first leg won at 4/1
A partial return was disappointing
Returned most of our stakes back
But expected more in the 2nd leg
In races 3-4-5 we had a meltdown
MOGUL was a strange selection
Not one I would normally go with
Think the hype clouded judgement
Confident He will win next time out
But I really made a mess of that one
Dubious Affair again not my style
Both horses lost to similar types
Those with more established form
Unusual choices that surprised me
Mug punting in the middle section
METIER was an excellent final bet
That repaired a lot of early damage
Probably not too much in it overall
But parts of it I made a real mess of


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Salisbury 1.50

3/1 Freyja, 4/1 Incognito, 9/2 Zulu Girl, 5/1 Elegant Erin
8/1 City Escape, 10/1 Moorland Spirit, 14/1 Single,
20/1 Kashmirella, Prairie Moppins, Russian Rumour,
25/1 Rosardo Senorita, Unbridled Light, 66/1 Kahpehlo.

7f Maiden (2yo)

FREYJA is unraced drawn 12
Past winners of this race
Had 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 career runs
Not sure you want a debutant

Since 2012
Unraced horses over 7f here
Drawn 12 or more are 0-32
FREYJA has too much to prove
KASHMIRELLA is unraced and rejected
SINGLE has a similar challenge
CITY ESCAPE hasn't done enough yet

ELEGANT ERIN has a chance
Stamina worries me on her pedigree
Up in distance on softer ground
I would question her stamina
MOORLAND SPIRIT is respected
But coming back 7 days after a debut
I prefer the experience of two more

INCOGNITO
ZULU GIRL

This pair have more positives
Which handles the ground better
May be able to take this race

We could go each way

INCOGNITO £4 each way
ZULU GIRL as a £2 saver

It would increase safety
Even if prices are skinny
May have considered it
For a stronger staked bet
But this is really not one

Selection

£8 Win Bet INCOGNITO 4/1

£2 Win Bet ZULU GIRL 7/2




Beverley 2.00

9/4 Band Practice, 3/1 Galadriel, 4/1 Dancing Leopar
5/1 Say It Simple, 8/1 Excel And Succeed, 11/1 Astrozone
33/1 Bay Filly Rolla, Lady Nectar, 33/1Midnight Mimosa,
33/1 Prisma, 66/1 Sweet Embrace.

5f Novice for fillies

GALADRIEL has 3 runs
Racing Post Ratings 80 73 64

These are The best numbers
They are regressive as well

Her trainer Kevin Ryan
Has won this race all 3 times it was run
That has contributed to her being 7/4
But can we trust this trainer

Running her in a Listed race on debut
Not always the best idea for a 2 year old
Her first 2 career races were Pattern races
She has now gone from 5f to 6f to 7f
GALADRIEL drops from 7f to 5f
Has to slide her regressive numbers
has to overcome a double figure draw
I just see warning signs about her
GALADRIEL is not a negative
But she has not convinced me

BOND PRACTICE has raced once
Far more orthodox and can improve
It was only a 2 horse race he ran in
Came a predictable 2nd to a 1/16 chance
But it is not his fault just 2 horses race

DANCING LEOPARD has an absence
SAY IT SIMPLE is unraced
The best of this pair could be a threat

My preference
BOND PRACTICE each way
But not much 5/2 available as I type

Selection

BOND PRACTICE

Each Way if 5/2

Win Bet if 9/4 or lower




Beverley 2.30

7/2 Lord Of The Alps, 5/1 G For Gabrial,
6/1 Doncaster Rosa, Northern Hope
7/1 Blausee, 12/1 It's Not My Fault, Sir Havelock,
25/1 Must Dream, Teasel's Rock, The Trendy Man.

Nursery over extended 7f

The history of this race
Show horses from 6f or shorter
Never seem to win the race
All 29 beaten in recent years

The ideal profile

Horses from 7f or more
Carrying 8st 9lbs or more
Drawn 7 or lower

The weight stat
Just a nod to the classier types

DONCASTER ROSA comes from 6f
SIR HAVELOCK comes from 6f
TEASALS ROCK comes from 6f
Not enough positives in these

BLUSEE will do well to stay
Given his sire I could not touch him
IT'S NOT MY FAUL is rated only 55
Comes from the wrong part of the weights
Similar comments apply to low rated types
THE TRENDY MAN - MUST DREAM

G FOR GABRIAL has a chance
But not quite in the ideal profile range
Not got the best of draws either

Best profiles

LORD OF THE ALPS
NORTHERN HOPE

NORTHERN HOPE has stall 11
Could win if he overcomes that

Beverley have 20 Nurseries
Run over any distance since 2011
The 20 winners were drawn 1-8
Horses drawn 9 or more are 0-29
Obviously thats a tough draw

LORD OF THE ALPS drawn 9

Plan A was....

LORD OF THE ALPS each way
But at 3/1 feel the price is too short

Another option
Maybe to split stake 3 horses
LORD OF THE ALPS as a saver

Selection

£6 Win Bet NORTHERN HOPE 9/2

£2 Win Bet LORD OF THE ALPS 3/1-100/30

£2 Win Bet G FOR GABRIAL 5/1




Beverley 3.00

7/2 Siyahamba, 9/2 Loose Chippings
13/2 Kalaya, Mac O'Polo 7/1 Point Of Honour,
14/1 Ezanak 25/1 Big Ian, Royal Liberty,
33/1 Roser Moter 66/1 Just Heather.

Selling Handicap over 12f

You want a recent run here
Horses absent over 3 weeks
Have a 1-39 record in the race

You want to avoid horses
That come from 8f or shorter
Past winners all ran over 9f +

I'd want 3 + runs this season
12f on soft takes some getting here

Another interesting consideration
Horses aged 4
Have a 0-31 record in this race

Not as progressive as 3 year olds
Not as strong as older horses
This age group have been squeezed
POINT OF HONOUR is a 4yo
Looks a good example of why they are 0-31
May win but not for me rated only 46
Having a first run for a new stable
MAC O'POLO rejected with 143 days off
BIG IAN raced just one in 79 days

LOOSE CHIPPINGS has a chance
But he steps up from an extended 8f
That is no advantage in this race
Has an uninviting 0-24 career record
And just 14 days ago
Ran badly in a RPR of only 1 (one !)
Maybe today will be his day
Expect the unexpected and all that
But he is not a match on past winners

Shortlist

SIYAHAMBA has a chance
Hardly oozes class though

KALAYA is hard to read
3yo hammered in his last 2 races
When running over further

TABOU BEACH BOY is interesting
In form 3yo with a recent run
The main question mark
Will he stay 12f on good to soft
The sire only has 12f winners on sand
He probably should stay well enough
That recent run gets him the verdict

Stop Press

TABOU BEACH BOY is a non runner


Selection

SIYAHAMBA 11/4

Each Way






Beverley 3.30

6/1 Burtonwood, 13/2 Sheepscar Lad
7/1 Moonlit Sands, 15/2 Guardia Svizzera,
10/1Suwaan, 10/1 Point Of Woods
10/1 Suitcase 'N' Taxi, 12/1 Warrior's Valley
16/1 Young Tiger, 20/1 Atyaaf, 20/1Mambila,
25/1 Prestbury Park, 25/1 Desert Ace.

5f Handicap

Not a big preview
Time does not allow this
Factored in all the usual angles

BURTONWOOD is badly drawn
Without a recent run horrible profile

I want a good draw
Several recent and decent runs
I could only shortlist 2 horses

GUARDIA SVIZZERA 9/2

SUWAAN 5/1-11/2

SUWAAN my choice

1) Most recent run
2) Best last time out figures


Selection

£4 Each Way SUWAAN 5/1-11/2

£2 Win Bet GUARDIA SVIZZERA 4/1-9/2

1/4 Odds 1-2-3



Chepstow 5.00

4/1 Perfect Grace, 5/1 Kingfast, 13/2 Doune Castle
15/2 Harmonise, 9/1 Ascot Day, Nabhan, War Eagle
10/1 Foresee, 14/1 Marengo, 16/1 Tobouggaloo
16/1 Zillion, 20/1 Enmeshing, 20/1 General Brook
20/1 Puzzle Cache.

12f Handicap

Soft ground this will take some getting
DOUNCE CASTLE only has 3 runs
As a 3yo with a nasty 84 day absence
More than happy to reject him

PUZZLE CACHE is absent too long
ZILLION is absent too long as well

PERFECT GRACE ran 8 days ago
She is no certainty to get home here
Filly up in trip with no soft ground form
ASCOT DAY has a tough absence
Not the best of draws either

KINGFAST has a chance
Course and distance winner on soft
But that was in a lower grade than this
If you look at his career aged 3 or more
He has raced 16 times
All 16 runs were Class 6 races
This is a higher grade than he is used to
Every chance that finds him out
NABHAN is unorthodox and beatable
TOBOUGGALOO is an 8yo Mare
Just 2 runs since 2017 puts me off
Even if they were creditable runs

MARENGO is an 8yo
Small chance if bouncing back after a flop
WAR EAGLE is a 3yo on soft ground
Hard to read but plenty to prove

FORESEE is an exposed 6yo
Despite 6 weeks off he is respected
Can match him to winner
FORESEE could be a saver

HARMONISE is a mare in form
Comes here winning at Windsor
Plenty of form on soft ground

Selection

£4.50 Each Way HARMONISE 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet FORESEE 15/2



Tramore 5.45

15/8 Eviscerating, 2/1 My Manekineko
6/1 The Irregular, 10/1 Generalisation
12/1 The Artful Roger, The Granson
20/1 Kos, Western Sea.

2m Novice Chase

Market leaders are radically different

MY MANEKINEKO a 10yo with 75 runs
EVISCERATING a 7yo with 15 career runs

Better off with the 7yo
With fewer runs and more improvement
EVISCERATING is from Joseph O'Brien

MY MANEKINEKO's trainer
Has a long successful career but in 2019
The stable have a 0-81 record so far
This is a yard with few chase winners
Their chasers since 2015 are just 1-65
THE IRREGULAR is a saver option
EVISCERATING has more scope
May be suited by this drop to 2 miles

Selection

EVISCERATING 11/10

Win Bet





Chepstow 6.40

11/4 Twilighting, 11/2 Jacksonfire, 6/1 Mad Endeavour
6/1 Rebecke, 8/1 Langley Vale, 10/1 Fantasy Justifier
10/1 Frea, 12/1 Cool Strutter, 16/1 Counterfeit, 20/1 Lily Of Year
25/1 Alfie's Angel, 25/1 What A Dazzler, 33/1 Swendab,
40/1 Lambrini Lullaby, 66/1 Hellofagame 66/1 Tintern Spirit.

6f Handicap

Chepstow on soft ground
Will test many of the 3 year olds
May be worth going with older horses

REBEKE is a 3yo
Only 3 runs would not be for me
WHAT A DANCER a 3yo with months off

TWILIGHTING is a 3yo filly
Just 4 runs before
Having a short 6 day absence
Does not draw me towards her
She is also drawn in stall 16

Chepstow 6f races
Since 2014
Horses drawn 12 or more
Have a 0-51 record since then

TWILIGHTING is unsafe drawn 15
LANGLEY VALE is drawn 16
Do we really want a 10yo badly drawn
Without a run in over a month now

MAD ENDEAVOR could go well
But drawn 17 of 17 may not help

COUNTERFEIT looks underraced
Having raced once since 2018
SWENDAB does not offer much

JACKSONFIRE has a chance
But a miserable 1-48 strike rate
So little backclass behind him
FANTASY JUSTIFIER is respected
But an 8yo with topweight absent 44 days

COOL STRUTTER has positives
Coming into his time of year
Has experience and recent runs
Raced alone in his previous race

Selection

COOL STRUTTER 10/1

Each Way



Yarmouth 6.55

2/1 Break Of Day, 6/1 Ifton, Reconnaissance
10/1 Jazz Hands, Secret Treaties, 12/1 Petite Malle
12/1 Red Archangel, 14/1 Symphony, 16/1 Approve The Dream
16/1 Purgatory, Salmon Fishing, 25/1 Congress Place
33/1 Princess Florence.

8f Handicap

BREAK OF DAY won 5 days ago
Obvious chance and could easily win
Two things concern me

Stall 1 is not a good draw
Comes from low down the weights
Racing Post Ratings after 6 races
Show him to be only modest so far
I prefer the 2 class horses

RECONNAISSANCE
IFTON

The horses below them
Don't offer much resistance
PETITE MALLE 3rd in the weights
Is only a filly with 3 career starts
PURGATORY is down in distance
Well beaten last time may not have stayed
Chance like many of these
But staying with the classier types

Selection

£4.50 Each Way RECONNAISSANCE 9/2

£1.00 Win Bet IFTON 10/1





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Saturday

Great St Wilfred

Draw and Declarations today
Looks like being soft ground
Will have another look Friday

Current shortlist

DAKOTA GOLD 8/1
SUMMERGHAN 8/1
LAKE VOLTA 12/1
GUNMETAL 12/1
GULLIVER 16/1

The above could change
Nothing is set in stone right now
The Draw is a bit of a pig to read
The very high numbers are poor
But they have won similar races

Playing with some draw stats

5f and 6f races
Horses aged 6 or more
Drawn in stall 15 or higher
Have a 0-45 record since 2011

Ripon 5f 6f 7f races
Ground softer then good
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn in stall 13 or higher
Have a 0-30 record since 2012

Race always looks different
Once the declarations are out
Will have another look later on




Aidan O'Brien

Interviewed yesterday
About some of his prospects
As usual He gave little away

MOGUL

A Horse that I mentioned yesterday
Positive at 50/1 for Epsom 2020

"He makes his debut at Gowran Park this evening
He doesn’t have a good draw and our horses are
usually green first time, so at a track like Gowran
I’d expect him to be extra green. I’d just be hoping
for a nice run today. He’d be one you could see
finishing third or fourth here, winning easily the
next day and then hopefully going on to better things.
He works like a very good horse. Could be anything."

Wish I had read that yesterday
May have stopped a poor choice

He does confirm my own view
MOGUL will win next time out
Still in the mix for the Derby
Was not pushed out after defeat
He retains his price around 40/1

The annoying thing about the interview

CONSTANTINOPLE my St Leger fancy
Was not discussed or commented about
I wanted some positive news about him

What did interest me
His comments about 2 horses

SIR DRAGONET
PINK DOGWOOD

Suggested neither horse
Would be running in the St Leger
Happy that is two out of the way

The St Leger market is lifeless
Most people waiting for next week
The Great Voltigeur one of the trials


Serie A

Top Italian Goalscorer

Romelu Lukaku priced up at 12/1
He was well backed yesterday
Decided not to have this bet
Don't think this is good enough

This is a good market to bet in
Some firms are 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4
Some people may even consider
Betting Ronaldo 7/4 with 4 places

Don't really think it matters
Which of the main players you bet
The 4 places the main temptation


Tennis

Cincinati Masters

N.Djokovic 1/1 R.Federer 7/2
R.Bautista Agut 10/1 D.Goffin 14/1 A.De Minaur 16/1
D S.Schwartzman 16/1 D.Medvedev 20/1
M.Kecmanovic 25/1 A.Mannarino 28/1
K.Khachanov 28/1 R.Gasquet 28/1
Y.Nishioka 33/1 A.Rublev 40/1 J-L.Struff 40/1
L.Pouille 40/1 P.Carreno Busta 66/1

One eye on this tournament
Which is currently underway

The Seeding's if working out

Mean Federer and Djokovic
Should meet in the semi final

I have a hunch
Federer might beat Djokovic
The shorter 3 set game will help
And I would not bet Djokovic
In anything but a Grand Slam

I can only guess
But had a small interest bet

Roger Federer 7/2 to win this event
With Cyraname in the King George
It pays over 25/1 to modest stakes
Placed a modest double on this
Play resumes around teatime today

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