8 Races Discussed
1 Account Bet



Account Bet

Ascot 5.00

£2.50 Each Way SUMMERGHAND 16/1

£2.50 Each Way TIS MARVELLOUS 16/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5 (6-7)


7 Places Skybet
6 Places Ladbrokes PPower Unibet Corals
6 Places Betfair Betway Boyles
5 Places Bet365 Hills VC Betfred

If one of these win
We have a 4/1-9/2 winner
If only 1 of these finish placed
Then we can not lose any money
And with 5 and 6 even 7 places
We have every chance of saving



Message Highlights

Sanity will return tomorrow
We can get back to normal then
Once this final day is done with

Ascot is the hardest week around
Which started on very soft ground
And has finished on faster ground
So hard to expect a bonanza week

After 5 days covering every race
The account is marginally in front
I'm trying to go out with a winner
Given at worse it is a level week


Final day of Ascot
Saturday Message as well
Covering these races

Ascot 2.30
Ascot 3.05
Ascot 3.40
Newmarket 4.00
Ascot 4.20
Ascot 5.00
Down Royal 5.20
Ascot 5.35


Ascot 5.00

£2.50 Each Way SUMMERGHAND 16/1
£2.50 Each Way TIS MARVELLOUS 16/1

Wokingham handicap

Surprised I have played in this

But the shortest priced horses

1st favourite - Never ran over 6f

2nd favourite - Fails a 0-246 stat

3rd favourite - Fails a 0-246 stat

4th favourite could win
But he has a higher official rating
Than any past winner of this race

When you factor in the above
Other negatives and up to 6 places
Then there is a case for a bet here



Message Selections

Ascot 2.30
£6 Win Bet Pinatubo 7/2
£4 Win Bet Lope Y Fernandez 6/4

Ascot 3.05
£3.50 Each Way I Am Superman 20/1
£3.00 Win Bet Momkin 9/1

Ascot 3.40
Southern France 5/1
Each Way

Newmarket 4.00
Moqtarreb 11/4-3/1
Each Way

Ascot 4.20
£5.00 Win Bet Sands Of Mali 16/1
£3.50 Win Bet Blue Point 2/1
£1.50 Win Bet Invincible Army 11/2

Ascot 5.00
£2.50 Each Way Summerghand 16/1
£2.50 Each Way Tis Marvellous 16/1

Down Royal 5.20
£4.50 Each Way Wildewood 5/1
£1.00 Win Bet Shared Ambition10/1

Ascot 5.35
Cleonte 9/2
Each Way




Ascot Generic Statistics

40 Negatives
39 Beaten
21 Today

Ascot 3.05 - Air Hair Lair
Ascot 3.05 - Marie's Diamond
Ascot 3.40 - Communique
Ascot 3.40 - Salouen
Ascot 4.20 - City Light
Ascot 4.20 - Keystroke
Ascot 4.20 - The Tin Man
Ascot 4.20 - Donjuan Triumphant
Ascot 4.20 - Projection
Ascot 4.20 - Kachy
Ascot 4.20 - Dream of Dreams
Ascot 4.20 - Tip Two Win
Ascot 5.00 - Corinthia Knight
Ascot 5.00 - Lake Volta
Ascot 5.00 - Marnie James
Ascot 5.00 - Stone Of Destiny
Ascot 5.00 - Soldier's Minute
Ascot 5.00 - Hey Jonesy
Ascot 5.00 - Foxtrot Lady
Ascot 5.00 - Fighting Irish
Ascot 5.35 - Lucky Deal


Fridays Review

That was not a very good day
Got a return in just two races
We can argue 1 winner 1 place
Private Secretary was the bet
He could finish only in 4th place
He looked the third best horse
But factors stopped him placing
Annoying he missed the break
Forced into hard work mid race
Came between horses for a run
But early exertions caught up
He looked smaller than others
Looked physically out of depth
Nothing could touch the winner
But a late run faded into fourth
Felt he lost the race early doors
Much of the card was ridiculous
Where any return was unlikely
Certainly came off second best


PROFILES & PREVIEW


Ascot 2.30

6/4 Lope Y Fernandez, 7/2 Pinatubo, 12/1 Mohican Heights
14/1 Year Of The Tiger, 14/1 Heaven Forfend, Highland Chief
16/1 Harpocrates, 16/1 Rose Of Kildare, 20/1 Sun Power,
33/1 United Front, 40/1 Dramatic Sands, Joker On Jack,
40/1 Zmile, 66/1 Ardenlee Star, 66/1 Clay Regazzoni,
66/1 Dark Kris, Montanari.

Chesham Stakes

2 year olds over 7f

The market suggests a match

LOPE Y FERNANDEZ 11/8 - Aidan O'Brien

PINATUBOO 4/1 - Godolphin

Both unbeaten
Both have smart numbers
The only horses under 12/1
Don't see many other options

YEAR OF THE TIGER is unsafe
He was beaten only 15 days ago
Has a difficult draw to negotiate

HIGHLAND CHIEF is also unsafe
He has to come from 5f to 7f
The 2010 winner had this profile
Not a negative profile because of it
The stable are not very inspiring

HARPOCTATES has Listed form
No past winner had that before
Might or Might not be significant

Most past winners
Had 1-2 career starts
Coming from 5f or 6f
Starting under 33/1
1-2-3 last time out
Running within 4 lengths last time
Starting under 20/1 in that race

Too many horses have that profile
Why this is not a good trends race

LOPE Y FERNANDE is not a match
Because he comes from a 7f race

Horses dropping down from 7f races
Have only ever won this once before
That was a filly (September) in 2016
Maybe others find more improvement
Only 13 males have tried to do this
So not too worried about that angle
But unproven profile and short price
Suggests we should look elsewhere
My strategy is make him the saver bet

PINATUBO won the Woodcote Stakes
Pedigree suggests he needs this trip
He is the bet with a saver on the fav

Little surprise if something improves
And pop up around the 14/1-20/1 range
The Market has isolated two horses
Going to stake the race this way

Selection

Small Stakes

£6 Win Bet PINATUBO 7/2

£4 Win Bet LOPE Y FERNANDEZ 6/4



Ascot 3.05

11/4 Space Blues, 6/1 Happy Power
13/2 So Perfect, 9/1 Angel's Hideaway, 8/1 Urban Icon
10/1 Momkin, 11/1 Bye Bye Hong Kong, 14/1 I Am Superman
16/1 Marie's Diamond, 20/1 Duke Of Hazzard, 20/1 Fire Fly
20/1 Masaru, Western Frontier, 25/1 Dubai Dominion
20/1 On A Session, Space Traveller, 33/1 No Nonsense
500/1 Air Hair Lair.

Jersey Stakes

3yo Group 3 over 7f

SPACE BLUES is favourite
Improving colt on a hat trick
Generally his profile is not too bad
The main worry is too much racing
This is his 5th race in 72 days now
Very few win this race as busy as him
None that did won last time out
Good chance but quite a shaky profile
When you factor in this bad trial race

Comes from Epsom's Surrey stakes
Horses prepping in that race are 0-41
If he is to win this years Jersey Stakes
Has to overcome the worse trial race
SPACE BLUES might but it's a worry

URBAN ICON also comes from this race
ANGELS HIDEAWAY does this as well

MARIE'S DIAMOND also raced there
He looks too far exposed with 14 runs
Every winner since 2004 had 19 or less
ANGELS HIDEAWAY with 11 runs fails this
DUKE OF HAZARD (11 Runs) is exposed

SO PERFECT comes up in distance
The last winner to do that was 2010
Horses doing that with over 5 runs
Have a 0-34 record in this race
SO PERFECT has a weak profile

HAPPY POWER won 8 days ago
Decent Racing Post Rating there
The best last time figure in the race
Running within 8 days is not orthodox
Horses running within 16 days
Last won in 2002 in a 1-45 record
HAPPY POWER is also drawn 1
That is not a safe draw over 7f here

Ascot 7f races
Since 2011
More than 10 runners
Run in Class 4 or higher
Horses with over 4 runs
Drawn 1 have a 1-65 record

Since the Stalls renumbered
None drawn 1-2-3 have won this

Past winners
Had the following career runs

5 3 5 6 5 9 9 5 2 9 2 5 6 3 4
15 5 6 4 7 3 2 5 8 8 6 7 11

Best Recent Profile

The last 10 renewals

Horses from a Group 1 race
Run over a mile last time
Absent more than 3 weeks
Between 4 and 9 career runs
Beaten last time out
Not by over 12 lengths
Starting under 22/1
You find a 7-17 record

The last 6 Jersey winners
All had the above profile

This years Qualifiers

I AM SUPERMAN
MOMKIN

Selection

I AM SUPERMAN 20/1

£4.50 Each Way

MOMKIN 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet






Ascot 3.40

11/4 Masar, 4/1 Defoe, Southern France
9/2 Mirage Dancer, 13/2 Lah Ti Dar, 10/1 Salouen
16/1 Communique, Morando, 66/1 Nagano Gold.

Hardwicke Stakes

Group 2 race over 12f

MASAR was last seen
Winning the 2018 Epsom Derby
Reported to be working well
That is still a serious absence
Longer than any winner in decades
Would not rule him out of winning
But he is not matchable to a winner

You are better off with a 4yo
Older horses struggled recently

The last aged 5 or more that won
Was a long way back in 2007
Horses aged 5 or more
Have a 0-44 record since then

DEFOE is a 5 year old
Comes from a superb trial race
But none that did were 5 year olds
SALOUEN has the same problem
He is very exposed to be winning

MIRAGE DANCER is a 5yo
Strong claims on the numbers
But horses aged 5 or more
Are 0-44 since the 2007 renewal
And those with 1 run that season
Have a 0-33 record in 20 renewals

MORANDO is a 6 year old
Beaten 15 lengths at Epsom last time
None of the last 20 Hardwicke winners
Were beaten that far beforehand
NAGANO GOLD an outclassed 5yo

LAH TI DAR is a 4yo filly
Been a long time since one won
She was beaten too far for comfort
When disappointing at Epsom

We backed last years winner
Based on the following profile

Previous 11 winners

Were 4yo Colts
Between 5-11 runs
Running within 7 weeks
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Coming from pattern races over 10f +

Horses with this profile 11-28
Won every renewal since 2008
Only 1 horse has this profile

SOUTHERN FRANCE

He is a 4yo with 9 career starts
The last 11 winners aged 4

Had 10 8 7 9 7 5 7 11 8 11 8 races
With 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 that season
SOUTHERN FRANCE fits nicely

Selection

SOUTHERN FRANCE 5/1

Each Way




Newmarket 4.00

9/4 Moqtarreb, 100/30 Reynolds, 7/2 Sea Wings,
4/1 Frontman, 8/1 Light And Dark, 10/1 Bardo Contiguo
40/1 Your Thoughts, 50/1 Asensio, Heartbreak Hotel,
66/1 Ecstasea, Fountain Of Life, Isaac Murphy.

8f Maiden

MOQTARREB is experienced
Sets the standard after 4 runs
His Numbers are very respectable

Won't be many that can beat him
REYNOLDS did not appeal as much
Just 1 run starting 50/1 in that race
Fancied and well supported
But edging towards each way options

There are big dangers on paper
Powerful stables well bred types

LIGHT AND DARK one of these
FRONTMAN another challenger

The market will give clarity later
But at the time I'm looking at this
MOQTARREB each way around 3/1
Seems to be the sensible strategy.

Selection

MOQTARREB 11/4-3/1

Each Way


Ascot 4.20

2/1 Blue Point, 7/2 Invincible Army, 7/1 City Light
10/1 The Tin Man, 12/1 Bound For Nowhere,
12/1 Le Brivido, Sands Of Mali, 14/1 Dream Of Dreams
25/1 Emblazoned, Kachy, 33/1 Keystroke, 33/1Lim's Cruiser
33/1 Projection, Speak In Colours, 33/1 Tip Two Win,
33/1 Yafta, 40/1 Donjuan Triumphant, 100/1 Enzo's Lad.

Diamond Jubilee
Group 1 sprint over 6f

BLUE POINT hijacks the race
Won the King's Stand on Tuesday
Comes up in trip 4 days later
Tries to do this unique double

Choisir did the double in 2018
The 2006 and 2008 winners
Also won it from Tuesdays race

None of those were 5 year olds
But that might not stop him winning

The only doubt in my mind
Having had 80 days off on Tuesday
Will he bounce 4 days later

Horses Failing Generic Statistics

City Light - Keystroke - The Tin Man
Donjuan Triumphant - Dream of Dreams
Projection - Kachy - Tip Two Win

THE TIN MAN is a 7yo
Means he fails a generic statistic
Don't like him with 1 run this year

Horses aged 6 or older
With just 1 run this season
Return a 0-21 record in this race
THE TIN MAN fails this as well
PROJECTION fails the same angle

LE BRIVIDO drops down 2 furlongs
No past winner won from an 8f race

BOUND FOR NOWHERE is Australian
Comes here with 77 days off the track
The longest absent past winner
Won with 66 days off the track

BOUND FOR NOWHERE has longer
More than any past Jubilee winner
Has also had just 1 run this season
He was 3rd in this race last year
Same absence - same draw in stall 1
Not for me a year older and stall 1 again

DREAM OF DREAMS is exposed
More than any past winner in ages
EMBLAZONED doesn't offer enough

None of the above horses
Offer enough to get on a shortlist

CITY LIGHT is a French raider
He has a nasty 57 days off
Longer than any winner aged 4 +
He has raced just once this season
He was 2nd in last years race
But had more prep runs last year
He is now getting quite exposed
Could easily have underestimated him

Shortlist

SANDS OF MALI 16/1
One a good day could go well

BLUE POINT
Class horse of the race
Probably win or bounce here

INVINCIBLE ARMY is a 4yo
Comes from the best trial race
Horses from the Duke of York
Produced these past winners
1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999
2004 2010 2013 2016 2017
Not really my favourite stable
Going to stagger my staking

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet SANDS OF MALI 16/1

£3.50 Win Bet BLUE POINT 2/1

£1.50 Win Bet INVINCIBLE ARMY 11/2




Ascot 5.00

9/1 Danzeno, 10/1 Cape Byron, 14/1 Bacchus,
14/1 Gunmetal, 14/1 Perfection, 16/1 Cenotaph
16/1 20/1 Foxtrot Lady, 20/1 Intisaab
20/1 Hey Jonesy, Soldier's Minute, Watchable
20/1 Southern Horse, Spring Loaded,
25/1 Tis Marvellous, Vanbrugh, 33/1 Baron Bolt
33/1 Corinthia Knight, Gifted Master,
33/1 Marnie James, Raucous, 33/1 Sir Maximilian
33/1 Stone Of Destiny, Straight Right, Summerghand
40/1 Lake Volta,50/1 Fighting Irish.


Wokingham Stakes

6f Handicap

Starting with an angle
That I hope rules out 2 fancied horses

DANZERO
GUNMETAL

Class 2 Handicaps
Any time of year on grass

Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from 5f races
Absent over 2 weeks
Have a miserable 2-330 record

Those in fields of 15 or more
Have a 0-246 record

GUNMETAL fails this 0-246 statistic
DANZERO fails this 0-246 statistic

In these big field sprints
Their types just don't seem to win

DANZERO is an exposed 8yo
Not safe anyway with 1 run this season

GUNMETAL comes from 5f
Horses aged 6+ doing that in this race
Absent more than 7 days are 0-51


Generic Statistics

These horses fail one of them

Corinthia Knight - Soldier's Minute
Stone Of Destiny - Lake Volta - Hey Jonesy
Foxtrot Lady - Fighting Irish - Marnie James

My records go back to 1980
No horses won aged 9 or more

SIR MAXIMILIAN is too old aged 10
WATCHABLE is rejected as a 9yo

The last 3yo to win this
Was 32 years ago back in 1987

In recent years only 11 have tried
SOUTHERN HORSE is a 3 year old
Hard to see him winning
With a 149 day break as a 3yo

RECON MISSION could be different
He has a more inviting 7 day break
Cautiously see him as a positive
This is a very big ask for him

SPRING LOADED has 1 run this year
As a 7yo he looks a bit underraced

CAPE BYRON looks smart
But he has never ran over 6f
Down in trip 1 run this year is tough

VANBURGH is unsafe from 7f Listed race

BACHHUS has topweight
Throw in 245 days off he is unsafe
He did win this 1st time out last year
Won off a rating of 105 that day
This year he tries to win off 108
Older and more exposed now
From a stable very difficult to trust

No horse has won this race
Off a Rating of 106 or more
BACHHUS has this problem
BARON BOLT also has this problem
He needs a lifetime best


RAUCOUS only wins in small fields
STRAIGHT RIGHT didn't appeal

CENOTAPH has a nasty absence
Not for me as a 7yo with 65 days off
None aged 6 or more have won this
With an absence of over 4 weeks

INTISAAB is 8 failing this off 38 days
GIFTED MASTER also fails this

PERFECTION is a filly aged 4
Decided no as she downgraded yards

HEY JONESY is rated 106
None have won this race before
Off a rating of 106 or more
He is clearly a high class sprinter
So he is one that does scare me

SOLDIERS MINUTE fails a Generic stat
But it is the weakest one of those angles
He has just hit form winning at York
Easily a career best performance there
Something has obviously clicked
So I see him as a dangerous floater

TIS MARVELLOUS was 4th last year
He has more prep runs this season
Would happily see him as a saver

SUMMERGHAND is well drawn
Running numbers better than his mark
Has every chance with a good profile

Selection

£2.50 Each Way SUMMERGHAND 20/1

£2.50 Each Way TIS MARVELLOUS 20/1




Down Royal 5.20

5/2 Karasheni, Wildewood, 3/1 Aristocratic Man
7/1 Granularity, 12/1 Shared Ambition, 14/1 Bear Claws
25/1 Macaban City, 33/1 Conamara Handshake,
33/1 Flying Mary, Miss Moneybags, 50/1 Eazi Beazi
50/1 Secret Secret.

10f Maiden race

Half the field have no chance

The other half are work in progress
Look raw types
Potential not yet fulfilled
Hard to distinguish between them

Racing Post Ratings

80 Aristocratic Man
71 Karasheni
69 Granularity
67 Wildewood
65 Granularity
64 Shared Ambition
63 Granularity
60 Bear Claws

ARISTOCRATIC MAN as you can see
Has a healthy edge in the numbers

That was based on last years form
When he ran just twice as a 2 year old

What worries me about him
He is sired by Dandy Man
This is 10f and 75 yards
The ground is on the soft side

I did some research recently
About this sires limitations
So far no horse sired by Dandy Man
Has won on turf over 9f or more
Without having had at least 5 runs
ARISTOCRATIC MAN's best figure
Came over 7f when he was a 2 year old

Just feel it is asking a lot
From a horse sired by Dandy Man
To win on softer ground at 10f +
When having only 2 runs and an absence

I would oppose him each way

KARASHENI appeals in many ways
He could win on his run 8 days ago
Main worry about relying on him
He does not look a very big horse

GRANULARITY disappointed last time
I was considering a bet on him last time
But when I watched his previous run
Just did not like him physically at all

This is a Galloping Testing trap
Circumference of 1m 7f

Don't want to risk small fillies here
Nor horses with poor breeding angles

BEAR CLAWS ran a nice debut
Needs to improve to win
He did not progress in his 2nd race
But that may have come too quickly
I thought he ran very well
Was eased once beaten
Maybe he did not get home
Maybe the race came too soon
But 20/1 is a big price to take this

SHARED AMBITION has raced once
Starting 50/1 - Normally it would put me off
But he had no chance of winning that
Met several experienced types
With some strong numbers
He missed the break
If you watch the video of that race
You might agree with me
That he shaped with a lot of promise

WILDWOOD ran a strong debut
Had an impossible task that day
One of the main dangers on figures

Horses to Avoid

7/4 Aristocratic Man
6/1 Granularity

Possibles

3/1 Karasheni
20/1 Bear Claws

Positives

Wildwood 5/1
Shared Ambition 10/1

Selection

£4.50 Each Way WILDWOOD 5/1

£1.00 Win Bet SHARED AMBITION 10/1





Ascot 5.35

11/4 Max Dynamite, 5/1 Corelli, 6/1 Cleonte
13/2 Lucky Deal, 8/1 Younevercall, 9/1 Black Corton
10/1 Pallasator, 20/1 Coeur Blimey, Paddys Motorbike
33/1 Jukebox Jive, 40/1 Cayirli, 50/1 Le Maitre Chat
100/1 Pilansberg.

Queen Alexandra Stakes

Marathom 2m 5f trip

MAX DYNAMITE is favourite
Willie Mullins will have laid him out
The case against him statistically

Royal Ascot
Every race since 1997
No horse aged 8 or more
Won absent more than 77 days
All 42 that tried were beaten

MAX DYNAMITE is a 9yo
He has 286 days off the track
If he wins he breaks a 21 year stat
LE MAITRE CHAT also fails this

Realistically few of the 44 that lost
Were fancied or expected to win
MAX DYNAMITE stays very well
Would not make him a negative
But not my selection on that stat

PADDYS MOTORBIKE won 8 days ago
That was in a much weaker race
It was his first race since 2017
He is in risk of bouncing here
Several have much higher ratings

Horses aged 4
Have a 4-60 record since 1998
And 3 of those ran within 7 days
All 36 have lost since 2008

CORELLI is a 4 year old
Not really looking for one like him
9 winners aged 4 since the 1980's
They had 8 10 12 13 10 15 11 10 17 runs
CORELLI only has 6 career starts

LUCKY DEAL is also a 4yo
Failing a Generic Stat not for me


BLACK CORTON is an 8yo
He is quite impossible to read
He has had 30 National Hunt races
Never raced in a flat race before
But he is one you'd expect to stay

PALLASATOR is a 10 year old
He has raced just once since July 2018
Normally I would baulk at that
But this is a strange type of race
Would not rule anything out
He did win this race last year

COEUR BLIMEY another hard to read
He is an 8yo with 71 days off
Much smaller stable than ideal

YOUNEVERCALL is an 8yo
Lightly raced has lots of stamina

CLEONTE is a 6 year old
He is exposed but stays quite well
He has a 3rd in the Cesarewitch
Possibly laid out for this race

Selection

CLEONTE 9/2

Each Way

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