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Betting The Message

No Flat racing in England
Curragh the only flat card

3 National hunt meetings
Most of these tiny fields

21 National hunt races
14 have under 7 runners
Not much I can do with them


Kelso 2.00
Curragh 2.50
Kelso 3.05
Curragh 4.25
Curragh 5.00

The Curragh
Has been viscous this week
There are 3 previews there
Don't want to stake a bet here

Irish 1000 Guineas
Hermosa 5/2
Each Way

Not everyone will like that
I certainly wouldn't stake it
But it seems quite probable
She is only available at 5/2 +
Because Magna Grecia lost
Beaten yesterday in the 2000

For my best bet
Going to Kelso over hurdles

There is some evidence
Suggesting the 7/4 favourite
Could be vulnerable in this


Today's Best Bet

Kelso 3.05

NAYATI 7/2

Each Way

1/4 the Odds 1-2


Only 5 runners
So needs to be 1st or 2nd

There was another staking option
Backing him as a win Bet
Saving on 2 other horses
Manamite and Cornborough
Not sure of the best approach
But decided to go each way

Not staked
Need a quiet day
After a rubbish week
With Bank Holiday tomorrow





Saturday's Review

Quite a stark example yesterday
Picking the wrong one of 2 bets
There were two obvious options
The first Beat The Bon wins well
Colourful win glorious sunshine
The other bet faded into obscurity
SIR RODERIC looked like placing
But in the end was ran out of 3rd
Basically I got that choice wrong
The choice of bet a thankless task
One sharper than a serpents tooth
Why did I go for the Amatuer race
One of the reasons was field size
It had half the number of runners
These decisions are often down
To luck or several little influences
Another example was the trainer
He gave the impression yesterday
Updating an article about his pair
Beat The Bon was their 2nd string
And they preferred the other horse
I did not believe that when read it
But It probably caused some doubt
Not making any excuses for the bet
Just simply saying these choices
Are often just down to random luck

The Irish Guineas was a real shock
Magna Grecia never ran his race
He was reported to be quite upset
Before the race but didn't see this
We had no reason to expect a flop
We did with Too Darn Hot though
He ran better but beaten into 2nd

Looks to me he has not trained on
I think Gosden knows this as well
Thats why he ran him quickly again
Try and get a Group 1 very quickly
Before others improve past him
I was pleased that he didn't win
As I wanted the statistic protected
About recent returners struggling
The winner a Charlie Hills horse
First debutant winner in 45 years
So not a race I will remember well



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Kelso 2.00

10/11 Some Day Soon, 13/8 Valentino Dancer
11/2 Blooriedotcom, 16/1 Lastofthecosmics
33/1 Brokopondo.

2m Novice hurdle

This could be a match

SOME DAY SOON won last time
VALENTINO DANCER did the same

Ran both profiles
Through hundreds of similar races

SOME DAY SOON hard to judge
He has quite a complicated profile
Made more so because of having
Raced just once now since November
I found 11 similar profiles in these races
Only 1 of the 11 winners won again
I would see him as a neutral positive

VALENTINO DANCER is a 4yo
He is 2 years younger than the favourite
I looked at horses aged 4
Who have had 1 hurdle race
Previous flat form as he does

The best record from these 4yo's
Those that fitted these requirements
Those finishing 1-2-3 last time out
Running within the last 4 weeks
Those with 11-15 previous flat runs

VALENTINO DANCER fits that criteria
He has 11 flat runs and won last time
I found 4 horses that had his profile
These 4 horses finished W 4 W W

BLOORIEDOTCOM is a 4yo
He nearly had the same profile
But didn't quite do enough last time
Could overlook that and shortlist him
But not a stable that forces a saver

Either of the market leaders
Could win this race on their profile

SOME DAY SOON has a 1-11 profile
VALENTINO DANCER has a 3-4 profile
So I will go with the better profile

Selection

Small Stakes

VALENTINO DANCER 6/4

Win Bet




Curragh 2.50

5/2 Hathiq, 3/1 Aleef, 5/1 Verhoyen
11/2 Kafu, 8/1 Mid Winster, 10/1 Optionality
14/1 Evasive Power, Stanhope.

5f Handicap

May be a bit early in the year
To be betting 3 year olds here
Against older horses in 5f handicaps

There are 3 horses aged 3
None of these offer a safe profile
MID WINSTER is a filly with 4 runs
One bad run this year may not be enough
EVASIVE POWER a 3yo well beaten last time
KAFU the other 3yo drops from 7f to 5f

VERHOYEN also drops from 7f to 5f
The concern would be a 2 day absence

5f Handicaps
Class 3 or higher
Any time of year
No horse under 7 years old
With more than 13 runs
Have managed to win a 5f
Down from a 7f race
Running within 5 days

OPTIONALITY is too unorthodox
She is an older mare with just 4 runs
No doubt training problems with her
She has a long absence to overcome

STANHOPE has a chance
But has just gone off the boil

HATHIQ is a positive
But unorthodox aged 5 with 6 runs
Missed the 2017 and 2018 seasons
Having broken his Pelvis in 2016

But came back this year and won
his last run a Racing Post Rating of 96
That suggests his rating of 84 is lenient
If Stall 1 doesn't hurt him he can win
But worth bearing in mind in 2019
He was purchased for only £3000

ALEEF won last time out at Navan
Running at the top of his game now

Not much between this pair
They met first time out in March
Finished together in a big handicap

Selection

Option 1

ALEEF 4/1

Each Way


Option 2

£6 Win Bet ALEEF 4/1

£4 Win Bet HATHIQ 7/4

With 8 runners
I would choose option 1

With fewer runners
Option 2 is the alternative




Kelso 3.05

2/1 St Gallen, 7/2 Cornborough,
9/2 Manamite, 9/2 Nayati, 15/2 Ted Veale
14/1 Beeno.

2m Handicap Hurdle

Like many races today
Small field messy affair

ST GALLEN is favourite here
But 3 things put me off him

He's only had 3 hurdle runs
He has raced once in 7 months
He is bottomweight in the race
Others have proven far more
And his profile is a bit too risk

Handicap Hurdles in May
Any distance
Any Class
Horses with under 5 hurdle runs
More than 16 lifetime starts
Just 1 run in the last 12 weeks
Horses with this profile are 0-29
None have won with his profile

Yes he may improve over hurdles
But he is already an exposed horse
Plenty here have better numbers

ST GALLEN's sire is also an issue
Good ground here and rain may come
He is sired by Majestic Missile
Who has a stamina index of just 6.2f
His hurdle runners have a 0-95 record
They are 0-48 on softer than good
So any rain may not help his chance

His sires winners all came in Class 5
None have yet won in Class 4 or higher
This is a Class 3 Handicap

But you have to guess between them
TED VEALE might win but he is 12
And comes here after a below par run
BEENO isn't running as well as some

CORNBOROUGH has a chance
MANAMITE another possible winner

Best profile

NAYATI

Handicap Hurdles in May
Male horses aged 5
Winning in the past 9 days
Under 15 lifetime starts
Between 6-13 Hurdle starts
Return a 6-11 record in them
NAYATI has this 6-11 profile

Selection

Option 1

NAYATI 7/2

Each Way

1/4 the Odds 1-2


Option 2

£6 Win Bet NAYATI 7/2

£2 Win Bet CORNBOROUGH 4/1

£2 Win Bet MANAMITE 5/1





Curragh 4.25

5/2 Hermosa, 11/4 Qabala, 5/1 Just Wonderful
7/1 East, 8/1 Fairyland, Iridessa, 10/1 Pretty Pollyanna
20/1 Dean Street Doll, 33/1 Coral Beach, Foxtrot Liv.

Irish 1000 Guineas

Already covered the race
Preview sent last Friday

HERMOSA won the English Guineas
Faces 4 horses she has already beaten

She could confirm the form
With several that were behind her
QABALA and DAIRYLAND in particular
Who I would see as uncertain stayers
Made the point that on time analysis
The track may be stiffer than Newmarket

PRETTY POLLYANNA is first time out
Do not see the appeal is risking her
Several others are out of their depth

EAST could be a threat
But her profile is not particularly safe
Running on heavy 2 weeks ago

IRIDESSA is a lively outsider
JUST WONDERFUL could threaten
If she has scope some doubt she has

HERMOSA has already beaten both
She is now an English Classic winner

The question I would be asking
Can 3 horses beat her in this race
Not unless she runs well below par
Each Way at 5/2 would be my bet

If Magna Grecia had won the 2000g
Rather than disappointing yesterday
Then Hermosa would be 2/1 or 9/4 here
She will have to run as badly as him
To not secure at least a place here
She is better value because of him

Selection

HERMOSA 5/2 - 11/4

Each Way





Curragh 5.00

4/1 Crotchet, 13/2 Atlas,
13/2 Dream Ascot 7/1 Innamorare, 8/1 Eastern Racer
8/1 Master Speaker, Trading Point, 10/1 Solar Wave
12/1 Aussie Valentine, Yuften, 16/1 Terzetto.

8f Handicap

10 Renewals

There are 2 main angles
That suggest a shortlist

All 10 winners were aged 4-5
Horses aged 6 or more are 0-62
All 10 winners had under 21 runs
Horses with more than that were 0-52

This leads to a shortlist of 6 horses

Crotchet
Dream Ascot
Solar Wav
Innamorare
Trading Point
Terzetto

Horses running within 6 weeks
Beaten over 5 lengths in that race
Have a 0-70 record in this handicap
Suggests a poor recent run is wrong
Trading Point and Terzetto fail this

Shortlist (1)

CROTCHET
DREAM ASCOT
SOLAR WAV
INNAMORARE

These are all 4yo fillies
As were the 2013 and 2016 winners
So no real problems with 4yo fillies

DREAM ASCOT has a nasty absence
Can not match her to any winners

SOLAR WAV is up in distance
She has 50 days off the track

April to August
8f Handicaps
Class 3 or higher
Fillies aged 4
13 or more career starts
Coming from 7f that season
Absent more than 7 days
Have a 0-62 record in these races
SOLAR WAV has this profile
Which suggests she's too exposed
To overcome a step up in distance
Without a recent run this year

Shortlist (2)

CROTCHET is a positive
She is a filly with topweight
INNAMORARE is a lightweight
Playing it this way

Selection

Small Stakes

£4 Each Way INNAMORARE 6/1

£2 Win Bet CROTCHET 4/1





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Guest Article Today

Kindly scripted by a member

Outlining detailed thoughts
And his own betting strategy
On the Conservative Party
And the Leadership election
He has backed a 50/1 chance


Before that

Want to cover two items first

Seniors Golf

French Open




Seniors Golf

PGA Championships

£3.25 Each Way Scott McCarron 11/1
£2.00 Win Bet Steve Striker 5/1
£1.50 Win Bet Bernhard Langer 15/2

Scott McCarron is making a move
After a bad start he has improved
He now finds himself in 4th place
With the final round later today

Leaderboard

-6 Paul Broadhurst
-4 Retief Goosen
-3 Ken Tanigawa
-2 Scott McCarron
-1 Corey Pavin
-1 John Riegger
+ All other players

Current Betting

4/5 Paul Broadhurst 3/1 Retief Goosen
7/1 Scott McCarron 8/1 Ken Tanigawa
40/1 Bar 4

Scott McCarron

He is 4 shorts behind
He is generally a 7/1 chance
He has a fair chance of winning
But could still yet finish unplaced
We have 1/4 the odds 1-2-3-4-5
Some had 1/5 the odds 1-2-3-4-5-6
So hope he plays well later tonight




French Open Tennis

Starts Today

Novak Djokovic

Drifted in the betting recently
Betfair (Win Only) offering 3/1
You can get 11/4 with Betfred

No doubt his recent Nadal defeat
Will have put a lot of people off him
He has also been given a bad draw

If he win the tournament
May have to beat some big names
Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem
Not to mention Nadal in the final

The Draw doesn't worry me
Not as relevant as many think
Happy with my each way bet 5/2



Simona Halep

Favourite for the Womens side
I deliberately overstaked on her
Now I am starting to regret this

Her 1st round loss in Rome
Her lack of a Coach right now
Her constant injury niggles too

Embarrassed to tell you this
Some will argue it is not professional
You are probably right about that
But Professionalism is overrated

I had £500 on her at 5.10 on Betfair

My original game plan here
Lay her back after 2-3 rounds
Hopefully around the 3.60 mark
End up with a £750 to Nothing

But trust has drained out of me
So I have laid £200 back at 5.53
Laid her at what is a bigger price
Which some may see as sacrilege

At the moment

I have a £1145.22 to £300

May even lay another £200
Feel I got over excited here
As I used to with Petra Kvitova
£300 still feels too big a stake
At the start of a Women's Slam



Member Guest Article

Conservative Party

Leadership Election

So, this-evening the runners and riders are
assembling at the start of this years second
Grand National.

The Conservative Party Leadership Election.

The current runaway favourite is Boris Johnson
(aka Bojo) the former Mayor of London former
Foreign Secretary, however as with Tiger Roll in
the (real) Grand National I can see reasons to
oppose him, let me enlighten you...

Firstly let me explain the background behind my
thinking. Love me or throw milkshake over me,
I am a 100% dyed in the wool Brexiteer and voted
to leave the European Union in the referendum.

Prior to that event
Whilst I had always voted Conservative. And I'm
52 years old! I had never paid money to join any
political party. However Brexit and the opportunity
to leave the EU awakened a passion deep within me
that due to subsequent events saw me become a
paid up member of not only the Conservative party,
but also The Brexit Party.

Initially when Mrs May became Prime Minister after
David Cameron waved the white flag, she talked a
very good game regarding Brexit, promising 'Brexit
means Brexit' and that 'no deal was better than a bad
deal' and that deal or no deal, we would leave the EU
on the 29th March 2019.

However
Having called a questionable general election in 2017
and as a result losing her slender house of commons
majority, her plan for Brexit morphed into her infamous
'Chequers' Withdrawal Act in July 2018, which resulted
in the resignations of the Brexit Secretary (David Davis)
Boris Johnson the Foreign Secretary and (importantly
for the purposes of this article) Steve Baker a minister in
the department for exiting the European Union.

At this juncture it became apparent to me
(someone who previously never engaged in politics)
That Mrs May had absolutely no intention of ever allowing
U.K. to genuinely leave the EU other than on BRINO
terms (Brexit In Name Only) and as a result I joined the
Conservative Party to ensure that in the event of a future
Conservative Party leadership election, that I could vote
for the Brexiteer leadership candidate, which at that
moment in time appeared to be Jacob Rees Mogg (aka
the Moggster). I retained my Conservative membership,
simply to vote for a Brexiteer in a forthcoming leadership
election (after which I will resign my membership).

Today, after her WA was voted down 3 times and following
numerous attempts to unseat her as PM, Mrs May accepted
the situation and resigned, triggering the leadership election
so demanded by the grassroots Tory party membership and
the hard line Brexiteer European Research Group Chaired
by Jacob Rees Mogg and Deputy Chair Steve Baker.

At this point, I think I need to explain how a Conservative
Leadership Election works and how ultimately the future
leader (and in this case Prime Minister) is elected ultimately
by the party membership.

The various candidates will declare their intention to run
for the leadership .The election for a new leader takes place
in 2 stages. In the first stage (shortlisting), Conservative MPs
put their own names forward. MPs then vote in a series of
rounds to whittle down the candidates. In each round the
person with the fewest votes is removed. This continues
until there are only two candidates remaining. Then in stage
two (Importantly), the party membership (100,000 politically
engaged members like me who are all in the main Brexiteers)
is balloted on which two candidates they prefer.

I think it is fair to say that since Mrs May's attempted '2018
Chequers WA' the Tory party membership has been infiltrated
by former UKIP members (and members like me) who have
just one intention in mind, which is voting in stage two for the
strongest Brexiteer candidate left on the ballot paper.

Up until the third reading of Mrs Mays WA, it was always
assumed that JRM (The Moggster) or Bojo, should they
become one of the two names on the final ballot, that they
would win the leadership election in a landslide (such was
their support amongst the Tory grassroots).

However inexplicably JRM and Bojo voted with Mrs May
and the government in favour of her BRINO Withdrawal
Agreement during its third reading. This did not go down
well with the membership! The feeling now in the Tory
membership (mostly Brexiteers) is one of betrayal and
horror and as such JRM and Bojo have question marks
hanging over their heads as to whether they can be truly
trusted to deliver a clean 'WTO' Brexit.

Steve Baker in comparison never wavered and voted
down Mrs Mays WA on every single occasion and as result
the rumors I hear amongst the conservative membership
is that if he were to become one of the final two names on
the ballot paper, he would probably secure the grassroots
memberships support. He is a very well respected leading
Brexiteer, current ERG Deputy Chairman, talks a lot of sense
and unlike many 'politicians' is always prepared to give a
reasoned answer to any question posed.As such he is very r
espected by myself and the membership at large.

At the time of writing Steve Baker hasn't declared he is
definitely running for the leadership but is gaining significant
support from ERG members such as (notably) Mark Francois.
Interestingly Baker also has a plan for Brexit which could attract
cross party support - The (Kit) Malthouse Compromise - which
he proposed to Mrs May after the first catastrophic defeat of
her WA. Mrs May was in no mood for any compromise and sadly
wouldn't consider any deal other than her WA Factor in the
probable landslide victory by The Brexit Party in the EU Elections
and many Conservative MPs will begin to realise that if they
have any hope of retaining their seat at the next General Election
then they probably need to be supporting a Brexiteer as leader
in the upcoming leadership election and any future General Election.

The problem for Bojo, is that he is despised by the majority of
the MPs and an 'anyone but Boris' axis is likely to develop,
which could mean that they prevent him from becoming one of
the final two candidates. That said if he makes it onto the ballot
(as previous the darling of the membership) he will easily win
And become the new PM. However it is interesting to note that
in most previous Conservative leadership elections, the perceived
front runner rarely wins, so the omens are not good for Bojo. He
also has the potential to open his big mouth and say something
that might quickly put paid to his leadership ambitions and he is
clearly a 'Marmite' candidate.

So, in concentrating on preventing Boris from becoming the
Brexiteer candidate on the final ballot paper presented to the
membership, the MPs might just allow Steve Baker to slip through
the net and if he does make it onto the final ballot paper, I believe
he will walk it in a final membership vote and just possibly become
the surprise new PM.

The runners and riders
With any conceivable chance of winning the race are as follows;

(Betfair prices as of 10.00 P.M. Friday 24th May)

Bojo 2.16
Raab 7.8
Gove 12
Hunt 15.5
Andrea Leadsom 24
Penny Mordaunt 28
Rory Stewart 24
Sir Graham Brady 32
Sajid Javid 29
Matt Hancock 46
Steve Baker 70 (if he runs)
Esther McVey 100
Priti Patel 85
Amber Rudd 110 NR
Cleverly 95
Liz Truss 150
JRM 230

I am far from convinced that the Conservative party has the
stomach to elect another female Prime Minister to try and
get Brexit over the line again, and if I am correct then this
train of thought will remove Leadsom, Mordaunt, McVey,
Patel, Rudd and Truss from the above list, which whittles
is down to;

Bojo 2.22 (Leave)
Raab 7.8 (Leave)
Gove 12 (Leave)
Hunt 15.5 (Remain)
Rory Stewart 24 (Remain)
Sir Graham Brady 32 (Remain)
Sajid Javid 29 (Remain)
Matt Hancock 46 (Remain)
Steve Baker 70 (Leave)
Cleverly 95 (Leave)
JRM 230 (Leave)

Of the remaining contenders under 20-1 Jeremy Hunt voted
Remain, whereas Bojo, Raab and Gove all vote leave. My belief,
is that the membership will demand a leave candidate on the
final ballot. I cannot see Gove making it through, as he is not
loved or trusted by either the MPs or the membership at large.

Any member of the current cabinet/government is also tainted
by Mrs Mays WA, so Gove, Hunt, Stewart, Javid and Cleverly
will all have additional problems to overcome. Of this bunch
Hunt could be viewed as a Mrs May in trousers candidate
and as such might be worth a saver.

My problem with Raab is his inexperience and the fact that
like Bojo and the Moggster he voted with the government
on the third reading of Mrs May WA. Additionally, I simply
cannot forgive him his comment as Brexit Secretary
'that he didn't realise how important the port of Dover was
to the economy of the U.K.' - doh!

My assumption is that Bojo will probably convince a majority
of MPs that he is the only candidate who can see off Farage,
Corbyn, and deliver a WTO Brexit whilst keeping their seats
safe and with that i mind, I think he is probably right. Therefore
he is rightfully the jolly in the race.

Hunt Vs any other remain candidate probably wins the final
ballot, so is a worthy saver

But at odds of 70 on BF tonight, Steve Baker is going to attract
some of my hard earned and my BF position is as follows;

Bojo +0.12 (Saver)
Hunt +30.00
Baker +839.00
JRM +265.00
The Field -35.00

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