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Today's Message

Day 3

In a planned run of 12 messages

Going right through next week
No breaks because of 2 festivals

Galway all week in Ireland
Glorious Goodwood

Hard schedule but love the week
Messages are always interesting
National Hunt and Flat combined

Partly because of this schedule
The oppressive heat yesterday
The need for a Saturday winner
We are taking today very easily


Thirsk 2.45
Thirsk 3.20
Thirsk 4.30
Ascot 4.45
Chepstow 6.45



Snapshot of the 5 Previews

Thirsk 2.45
£6 Win Bet Rapid Russo 7/1 - 8/1
£4 Win Bet Baltic State 7/4

Thirsk 3.20
Tails I Win 6/1
Each Way

Thirsk 4.30
Mondain 4/5 Win Bet

Ascot 4.45
£4.50 Each Way Arecibo 6/1
£1.00 Win Bet Daschas 9/1

Chepstow 6.45
£7.00 Win Union Rose 5/1
£2.00 Win Show Me The Bubbly 100/30 -7/2
£1.00 Win Quantum Dot 15/2


RAPID RUSSO with the saver
Looks on paper to make sense
We are betting the 4th favourite
We are saving on the favourite
This will depend on 2 negatives
For both 2nd and 3rd favourites

MONDRAIN is much too short
Not interested at all in this bet

TAILS I WIN is a numbers bet
Combined with an assumption
Far too dangerous for staking
Shouldn't be touching the race
But the numbers point to him
Might just be a very clever bet
But at Thirsk- expect only pain

ARECIBO is really quite sexy
Big field not sure what to expect
No surprise at all if he bolts up
But the draw is not easy to read


Best Bet

Chepstow 6.45

£7.00 Win Union Rose 5/1
£2.00 Win Show Me The Bubbly 100/30 -7/2
£1.00 Win Quantum Dot 15/2

Union Rose the main bet in this
Has a profile I'd normally avoid
But my angles clear him as fine

There is a 5/4 favourite in this
Who is trying to do something
No 3yo has done at Chepstow

If I am right about him
We have a great chance here

But like yesterday
The staking is rather ugly

There are 2 savers
They only get back part returns
I don't want to stake this bet

But like yesterday
Extremely ugly but effective





Thursdays Summary

Southwell abandoned after 2 races
Horses suffering from heatstroke
Which left us with just 4 previews
Pleasingly they finished P P L W W
I thought it felt like a good message
The only loser was not unexpected
The 2 winners came in the evening
DEBBONAIR was a highlighted bet
Staking was very ugly but effective
He won with the favourite only third
He was a 2/1 winner after the savers
Happy with that and message overall
Got a winner and the negatives beat.



PROFILES & PREVIEW


Thirsk 2.45

7/4 Baltic State, 4/1 Hostelry 5/1 Ventura Lightning
7/1 Rapid Russo 8/1 Shepherds Way, Street Life,
20/1 Rebel Redemption, 50/1 Not On Your Nellie
50/1 Sam's Call.

2yo Novice over 5f

Not many can win this
Thirsk is a difficult track
For unraced horses to win

June July July
Since 2003
Thirsk 5f races
Unraced 2 year olds
Have a poor 2-141 record

VENTURA LIGHTNING is unraced
Those in Novice races like this 0-30
I would much rather have experience

HOSTELRY has raced once
But drawn 1 may not help him

Thirsk 5f races
Since 2009
With 7 or more runners
Any time of year

Horses aged 2
Under 5 career starts
Drawn in stall 1
Have a 0-61 record since 2009

HOSTELRY drawn 1 fails this

SHEPHERDS WAY has ran twice
Numbers and low needs improvement
No surprise if he is being handicapped
STREET LIFE could be in the same boat
His 3rd run and needs lots of improvement

BALTIC STATE is a positive
Made his debut over 6f recently
Made him a negative in that race
Based on poor sire stats over 6f
He has the best numbers in the race
But a trainer impossible to rely on

RAPID RUSSO has raced once
Nice debut under the circumstances
Beverely never easy to win on debut
Faced several experienced horses there
Shaped well running down the middle
Just had a gentle introduction there
Far from impossible he will improve here
With Negatives amongst his main dangers
Going to play the race this way

Selection

£6 Win Bet RAPID RUSSO 7/1 - 8/1

£4 Win Bet BALTIC STATE 7/4





Thirsk 3.20

9/2 Lady Rouda, 5/1 Parion, The Big House
8/1 Arriba De Toda, Lethal Laura, 10/1 Lexikon
10/1 Tails I Win, 14/1 Lady Lavinia, Zalmi Angel
20/1 Um Shama, 25/1 George's Law, Grey Berry
33/1 Smashing Lass 33/1 Stainforth Swagger.

3yo Selling Handicap

These races are very rare

Shouldn't really be doing this
Should be called the Repulsive handicap

LADY ROUDA is a filly
With 1 run this season she is unsafe
Can't see her type winning this race
Just far too short of preparation runs
STAINFORTH SWAGGER the same problem
UM SHAMA also has a restrictive draw
ZALMI ANGEL needs dropping in distance
LEXIKON's numbers are too low

ARRIBA DE TOBA has a recent run
Scores points with that in her profile
But her numbers are on the low side
Best Racing Post Rating of 50
Not impressive after 13 career runs

TAILS I WIN

Liked her last run over 10f
She slipped the field and went clear
But she ran out of stamina that day
This drop to 8f looks promising
Chances are some of her recent runs
Have been over too long a distance

She has some of the best numbers
She has 3 Racing Post ratings in the 60's
Most of these have never achieved that
If this trip suits she has every chance

Selection

TAILS I WIN 6/1

Each Way





Thirsk 4.30

Evs Mondain, 7/2 Final Rock
5/1 Remember The Days 7/1 Super Kid,
16/1 Valkenburg, 20/1 Royal Flag
25/1 Card High

2m Handicap

MONDAIN should take this
As the only 3yo in the race
Getting weight from all others
Coming here with a good recent run

FINAL ROCK will do very well
To give this 3 year old 18lbs weight
SUPER KID will do very well to stay
CARD SHAPRP is underraced this year
VALKENBURG's numbers are behind
REMEMBER THE DAY is up 5f in trip
Just looks a soft race for the 3yo

Selection

MONDAIN 4/5

Win Bet



Ascot 4.45

6/1 Harome, 13/2 Mountain Peak
7/1 Arecibo 8/1 Daschas, Ornate, 9/1 Kick On Kick On
10/1 Only Spoofing, 10/1 Jumira Bridge, 11/1 Encore D'Or
14/1 Dapper Man, 16/1 Koditime, The Cruising Lord,
16/1 Vibrant Chords, 20/1 Wedding Date
25/1 Harry Hurricane.


5f Handicap

21 Similar Ascot handicaps
Run in July in this class

19 of the 21 winners
Ran within the last 24 days

Horses absent longer are 2-85
ORNATE comes here on a hat trick
But his last run was 38 days ago
That's a long time off after a win
Not a safe enough profile for this
VIBRANT CHORDS is absent too long
KICK ON KICK rejected absent 83 days

Horses aged 3 underperform
You are far better off with older horses
THE CRUSING LORD is a 3yo
Not safe and has the highest draw
THE WEDDING DATE is a 3 year old
Hard to like up in class against elders
KODITIME is short of runs this season
HARRY HURRICANE lacks the class
DAPPER MAN beaten too far last time

ONLY SPOOFING is on a hat trick
But he is one of the bottomweights
None rated as low won a similar Ascot race
This is a career high mark for him
Stepping up 2 grades in class as well
ONLY SPOOFING didn't appeal much

Horses drawn 13 or more
Have the most to do in 5f races here
HAROME has stall 13 in this race
Bothers me this is a career high mark
He has only ever won in smaller fields
JUMIRA BRIDGE has a career high mark
Short of runs in the last few months
ENCORE D'OR has a rating of 101
That will test him conceding weight
When he has just failed in a 2 horse race
He was 4th in this race last season
But there were far fewer runners then

MOUNTAIN PEAK won last time
That is now 6 wins in 18 career starts
Which puts him onto a career high mark
His last win was only in a 6 runner race
If i look at 4 year olds winning last time
In similar races they have a 1-20 record
Not enough to tempt me as the selection

ARECIBO is a 4yo from a 6f race
There were 3 horses aged 4 doing this
They were just a bit less exposed than him
But with several of his runs in France
He has plenty of sex appeal in this race
Not cheap when bought at 2018 Sales
His numbers suggest he is well treated

DASCHAS is a 5 year old
He won a weaker race 4 days ago
Does offer fitness and momentum
Well drawn and a course winner
He looks the sensible saver bet

Selection

£4.50 Each Way ARECIBO 6/1

£1.00 Win Bet DASCHAS 9/1





Chepstow 6.45

11/10 Broadhaven Dream, 7/2 Show Me The Bubbly
5/1 Union Rose, 7/1 Quantum Dot, 12/1 Silverrica,
6/1 Compton Poppy, Glamorous Rocket.

5f Handicap

BROADHAVEN DREAM is a 3yo
He only has 5 career starts
That is not against older horses
He won well on his previous start
But he basically stole the race
On his own on a faster strip of ground

That was a Class 6 race
He is taking a step up in class here
He is only a 62 rated horse

This is not the track
To go for a lightly raced 3yo

Chepstow 5f Handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year

Horses aged 3
Under 12 career starts
Absent over 2 weeks
Have a 0-36 record all year round
BROADHAVEN DREAM has this problem

With only 5 runs and 32 days off as well
He may win but not for me at 11/2
He has been overrated in the market

SHOW ME THE MONEY is a 3yo filly
But She has a bit more experience
She has better numbers as well
Not to mention a shorter absence
I would see her as a good saver bet

QUANTUM DOT is an 8yo
With just 3 months in 10 months
None of them were good runs
All of them producing low figures
He looks short of runs this season
No guarantee of form or fitness
I personally do not fancy him
But my statistics simply disagree
Shown me 3 winners with his profile
So he is a £1 saver just incase

UNION ROSE is the class horse
Carefully looked at his profile
As a 7yo with a high weight
Without a run in almost 7 weeks
Slightly surprised but easily matchable
I found several older types winning
UNION ROSE could conceded the weight
He has been running himself fit this year


Selection

£7.00 Win Bet UNION ROSE 5/1

£2.00 Win Bet SHOW ME THE MONEY 100/30 -7/2

£1.00 Win Bet QUANTUM DOT 15/2




FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Next Few Days

Saturday - 8 Meetings
Sunday - 2 Meetings
Monday - 5 Meetings

Sunday only has 2 meetings
Uttoxeter (NH)
Pontefract (Flat)

Neither are courses I like much
There will be a Sunday message
But it will likely be unusually short
Might just be 1 racing preview
With the Ante Post Football bet

Monday
Galway's Festival

Tuesday
Glorious Goodwood

One of the best weeks all year
Galway and Goodwood every day




King George

11 Declared runners


8/11 Enable 3/1 Crystal Ocean 12/1 Anthony Van Dyck
22/1 Waldgeist 22/1 Defoe 80/1 Cheval Grand
150/1 Magic Wand 150/1Salouen 200/1 Norway
250/1 Hunting Horn 250/1 Morando

Expected a smaller field
But there are several no hopers

Not many of these can win
WALDGEIST is one that could
But he missed this race last year
Pulled out because of fast ground
Now in the middle of a heatwave
He has never run on faster ground

The draw may be an issue

CRYSTAL OCEAN is drawn 9

ENABLE is drawn 11

Stall 11 is not a good draw
Albeit the evidence is flimsy

Ascot 12f races
Since 2011
Under 13 runners
Good or faster ground

Horses drawn 11 or more
Have a 0-17 record since then

Ascot races 12f and more
Since 2011
Under 13 runners
Horses drawn 11 or more
Have a 1-34 record since then
The only winner Trip To Paris
Who won the Ascot Gold Cup

Sharp right hand bend
Not longer after the 12f start
ENABLE drawn on the outside
May have problems from stall 11

Not sure how strong the bias is
Some have won on soft ground
Whatever bias there is at Ascot
ENABLE has got the worst draw






Seniors Open Golf

Round 1

Retief Goosen

Short level par

Tied in 16th Place

7 Players are 2 under
9 Players are 1 under
13 Players are on par

Retief Goosen is one
Steady opening round
Could have been worse
Could have been better

Betting after round 1

6/1 Colin Montgomerie 8/1 Darren Clarke
9/1 Retief Goosen 9/1 Bernhard Langer
10/1 Woody Austin 12/1 Scott Parel
161 M. Angel Jimenez 25/1 P. Broadhurst
33/1 Bar





Saturday

Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon

International Stakes Handicap

Ripp Orf 8/1 Arbalet 10/1 Vale Of Kent 10/1
Land Of Legends 11/1 Raising Sand 12/1 Spanish City 12/1
Lake Volta 16/1 Mubhij 16/1 Blue Mist 16/1 Kaeso 16/1
Makzeem 18/1 Hey Jonesy 20/1 Burnt Sugar 20/1
Lush Life 20/1 Fanaar 20/1 Diocles Of Rome 20/1 Admirality 22/1
Firmament 25/1 Good Effort 25/1 Island Of Life 25/1
Intisaab 33/1 Another Batt 33/1 Documenting 33/1
Alemaratalyoum 33/1 Kimifive 33/1 Summerghand 40/1
Reputation 40/1 Zap 40/1 Larchmont Lad 66/1

Declarations are through

29 horses run

KYNREN has not been declared
WISE COUNSEL has missed out

MAKZEEM is running
Was not overkeen on his draw in 3
Has a weight outside the ideal range

HEY JONESY has drawn stall 28
RIPP ORF the favourite stall 26
Neither draw guaranteed to help

VALE OF KENT has 9st 5lbs
Thats a bit higher than the ideal

The draw is quite complicated
Would not be confident about it

Ideal profile

Male horse
Aged 4 of 5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or 8f
9st 2lbs or less
Not ridden by 5lbs-7lbs claimer
At least 3 runs since late April
If the horse has 9 or more runs
Coming from Class 2-3 races
Not beaten more than 15 lengths
Consider it an added bonus
If coming from the Bunbury Cup

Horses now passing my angles

10/1 Ripp Orf
12/1 Mubhij
20/1 Lush Life
20/1 Kaeso
20/1 Diocles of Rome
25/1 Kimifive
25/1 Alemaratalyoum
50/1 Zap

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