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Today's Racing


Ran into a significant problem
Starting work as usual at 3am
Found my internet was down

Network error the likely cause
This did not come on until 7am
So lost 4 hours of study time

Trapped in a no connection hell
But very relieved it got sorted
There is little more frustrating
Thrust into a internet wilderness

Today is a mad rushed message
Crammed into just a few hours
And only produced 5 previews

Carlisle 12.45
Carlisle 1.15
Brighton 1.25
Wincanton 2.45
Carlisle 2.55

Given how much time I've lost
It is as good as I could hope for
But I don't do rushed decisions
So not advising any staked bet
Doing just 3 hours work today
Without any checks + balances
Have to write the account off


Todays Best Bet

Brighton 1.25

FIRENZA ROSE 9/4 - 5/2

Win Bet

Not sure if she will run
As she ran yesterday

If she does run
She is the fittest horse
Which I feel will be enough


If Firenza Rose pulls out
My replacement best bet is this


Carlisle 2.55

£2.50 Each Way Attention Seaker 16/1-20/1

£2.50 Each Way Black Key 14/1


Much more speculative
But pretty generous prices

We only need 1 of them to place
There are only 9 runners as well

Nothing more I can do
Given the lost time earlier
So sending this message early




Wednesday's Summary

Did better than I was expecting
We finished up W W W L L W P
The best bet of the day also won
Actually after I sent it I went off it
The drift put me off to be honest
Thought if the favourite was hot
We might have finished unplaced
Jatiluth won despite those fears
But didn't carry any of my money
I wasn't too sure what to expect
But overall that was a decent day



PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Carlisle 12.45

5/2 Jelski, 100/30 Black Ebony
5/1 Pull Green 11/2 Sense Of Adventure
13/2 Irish Odyssey 15/2 Methodtothemadness
14/1 Barntown 25/1 First Man, 66/1 Rashee
100/1 Express Des Mottes.

Novice Hurdle 2m 1f

Most runners are first time out
Most of these have no hurdle form

There are no significant angles
Based on similar races at this time of year

There may be a Carlisle angle

September October
18 Carlisle Novice Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f and shorter

Horses with under 2 runs
Have a 0-32 record in this race

Horses with under 3 runs
Have a 1-55 record in this race

Can only think this is the track
It is stiff and undulating
Strange shape and contours
Bit of an ordeal for the inexperienced
This would concern me a lot
About the following horses

PULL GREEN is unraced
Surely at a big disadvantage
SENSE OF ADVENTURE has 1 run
Ran in a Bumper last year
Horses with under 2 runs
Have a 0-32 record in this race

Lifetime Starts

0 Pull Green
1 Sense Of Adventure
2 Irish Odyssey
2 Black Ebony
3 Methodtothemadness
4 Jelski
6 Barntown

Surely the bet here
Stay with the experienced horses

METHODTOTHEMADNESS is a saver
I like that he has recent hurdling experience
With a different stable I'd be more interested
Probably would have been the each way bet

JELSKI has more career runs
Comes from a far stronger stable

BARNTOWN has most experience
You can look at him and not fancy him
Being 33/1 and 50/1 in Novices last year

My view he probably wont figure
But those races over 2m 4f he had
Were probably too far given his sire
If he is running Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
Over non staying trips of 97 and 102
Then he is a player
Watch the market with him

I was going with JEZKI
But he is too short now at 6/4
So going to make him a saver
Take a chance on Barntown
Knowing we has the 3 horses
With the most experience here


Selection

£5 Win Bet BARNTOWN 16/1

£4 Win Bet JELSKI 6/4

£1 Win Bet METHODTOTHEMADNESS 7/1





Carlisle 1.15

9/4 Some Detail, 3/1 Bourbon Borderline
5/1 Tango Boy, 11/2 Piggy Winkle, 10/1 Ask Himself
10/1 Flamboyant Joyaux, 12/1 Totally Rejected
20/1 Multellie, 50/1 Cawthorne, Golden Chancer.

2m 1f Novice Hurdle

The same issues
And the same angles
From the earlier race at 12.45pm

September October
18 Carlisle Novice Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f and shorter

Horses with under 2 runs
Have a 0-32 record in this race

Horses with under 3 runs
Have a 1-55 record in this race

Lifetime runs

0 Totally Rejected
0 Flamboyant Joyaux
1 Tango Boy
1 Piggy Winkle
1 Bourbon Borderline
2 Ask Himself
4 Some Detail
52 Multellie

MULTELLIE has 52 runs
I appreciate I wanted experience
But that is a bit too extreme
Doesn't look the right type

BOURBON BORDERLINE is fancied
Once raced Dan Skelton horse
We know similar types are 0-32 here
Win lose or draw
His type have not delivered

ASK HIMSELF has 2 runs
Considered him as a possible bet
But Michael Scudamore's hurdlers
Aged under 6 years old
Having their hurdling debuts
Have a modest 1-130 record

SOME DETAIL has 4 runs
Ran in a Grade 1 bumper last year
Statistically he is the best option
But he was 100/1 in that bumper
He is a big horse and may want further
But I don't see any better options here

Selection

Small Stakes

Think this is my weakest preview

£9 Win Bet SOME DETAIL 2/1 +

£1 Win Bet ASK HIMSELF 10/1 +




Brighton 1.25

7/2 Firenze Rosa, 4/1 Mister Freeze, 13/2 Wild Flower
8/1 Bahamian Sunrise, 10/1 Cool Strutter, 11/1 Mad Endeavour
14/1 Flowing Clarets, 16/1 Mercers 16/1 Ocean Temptress
16/1 Pharoh Jake, Shaffire 33/1 Free Talkin.

6f Handicap

Go back to 2015
Brighton 6f races
Horses drawn 11 or more
Have a modest 1-47 record

High draws need caution
The following have this issue

Ocean Temptress drawn 14
Cool Strutter drawn 12
Mercers drawn 11

PHAROH JAKE is 11 years old

Class 6 Handicaps
Run on turf over 6f 7f 8f
Any time of year since 2001

Horses aged 11 + are 12-283
But on ground softer than good
All 69 that tried were beaten
PHAROH JAKE the 70th to try

FREE TALKING a filly absent 82 days
SHAFFIRE is a 3yo filly
She's raced just once in 135 days
None of these look safe on soft

WILD FLOWER is a 7yo Mare

September October November
6 furlong Handicaps
Class 6 races
Mares aged 6 or more
Have a horrible 1-114 record
That winner had a more recent run

6 furlong Handicaps
Class 6 races
Any time of year
Both Grass and Sand
Mares aged 7 or more
Absent more than 18 days
Have a 1-116 record in them
WILD FLOWER has a weak profile

BAHAMIAN SUNRISE has a chance
But a 7yo coming up in distance
Not a safe profile
MKAD EMDEAVOR has a chance
But an 8yo with 1 run in 63 days
There are safer profiles around

MISTER FREEZE is a positive
FIRENZE ROSA is a positive

FIRENZE ROSA ran yesterday
Decent second at bath

If she runs
She will be the fittest horse
And I think she will should win

Selection

FIRENZA ROSE 9/4 - 5/2

Win Bet


If Firenze Rose does not run
MISTER FREEZE is the replacement
Each Way bet to smaller stakes




Wincanton 2.45

5/2 Do You Know What, 4/1 Wisecracker
9/2 Seeanythingyoulike, 5/1 Lake Baikal, 7/1 Duc Kauto
10/1 Peterborough, 14/1 Joey Steel, 20/1 Nomination Game
25/1 Hurricane Arcadio, 66/1 Kapoupakap.

2m Novice Handicap Chase

DO YOU KNOW WHAT

She has no Chasing experience
She is a Mare taking on males
Looked at her unusual profile
Trying to win a Novice Handicap Chase
Without any Chasing experience
And with a 7 day absence as well

Novice Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any Class
Any time of year

Mares
Having their Chase debuts
Coming from a hurdle race
Have won these races before

But

Those with under 10 lifetime starts
Running within 20 days were 0-51

Those with under 15 lifetime starts
Running within 17 days were 0-49

DO YOU KNOW WHAT with 7 runs
Shares both of the above profiles
And despite a significant stable
Did not feel I could trust her

Looking each way against her
PETERBOROUGH has 1 recent run
But did not do enough in that race
JOEY STEEL lost too far too recently
LAKE BAIKAL is a tad inexperienced

Feel 1 of 3 might win

DUC KAUTO
SEEANYTHINGYOULIKE
WISECRACKER

Going with a horse
Fit with chasing experience

Selection

WISECRACKER 5/1

Each Way



Carlisle 2.55

6/4 Higgs, 7/2 Frightened Rabbit, 8/1 Dubh Des Champs
10/1 Ask Paddington, Black Key, 12/1 Bestiarius
12/1 Mahler Supreme, Sleepy Haven, 16/1 Attention Seaker.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

HIGGS ran well 7 days ago
Well enough to make him favourite
But he has topweight in this handicap
He was having his first run in Months
And coming back to the track very soon
May well be on the bounce
Can't be sure but the profile is unsafe
Going each way against him here

DUBH DES CHAMPS has 321 days off
Not a safe enough profile
For a horse winning handicaps last year
SLEEPY HAVEN in a 9yo not rich in stamina
Looks unsafe going up 4 furlongs
Has never won beyond 2 miles

FRIGHTENED RABBIT 4/1
On paper looks an each way option
May well win if the favourite bounces
But he is very exposed with 22 hurdle runs
His figures exposed him as modest
Career best Racing Post Hurdle rating 105
Not a lot with 22 races to better than number
Looking elsewhere worried about his class

ATTENTION SEEKER

Ran 13 days ago
Beaten 19 lengths

Racing Post are sceptical
Suggest she is not the same horse
As she was back in 2017 before an absence

But there is an alternative view
She has been running herself fit
Her 19 length defeat last time
Came in a much better race than this
She made the running against betters
And may have gone off too fast as well

Going to split stake this race
BLACK KEY makes the staking
Having dropped down the weights

Selection

£2.50 Each Way ATTENTION SEEKER 16/1-20/1

£2.50 Each Way BLACK KEY 12/1-14/1






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Rugby Union

World Cup

New Zealand 5/4 South Africa 3/1
England 4/1 Wales 6/1 Ireland 16/1
Australia 25/1 France 33/1 Japan 33/1

Current Bet Update

Name the Finalists

£8.50 New Zealand + South Africa 11/4

£1.50 Saver New Zealand + England 6/1


The above bet
Seems to be proceeding nicely
New Zealand v South Africa is now 7/4
Both in opposite halves of the draw



Quarter Final Line Up

2/5 England v Australia 11/4
1/4 New Zealand v Ireland 9/2
2/5 Wales v France 11/4
1/5 South Africa v Japan 11/2


Sunday October 20th

1/5 South Africa v Japan 11/2

SOUTH AFRICA long odds on
Surely they should beat Japan

Japan have gained a lot of fans
But this is a big step up in class
The difference in size enormous
Probably the biggest built team
Playing against the smallest team

If there is a bet now

Surely it is this one

SOUTH AFRICA 3/1

Each Way

1/3 Odds 1-2

If South Africa beat Japan
Which looks highly likely to happen
They will only need to beat Wales
To reach the final of the World Cup

Wales will be a stiff test of course
But South Africa will be odds on

Getting 1/3 the Odds with 2 places
Mean if they also beat the Welsh
There is a risk free bet in the final



Ante Post

November 23rd

Haydock

Betfair Chase

5/2 Bristol De Mai 4/1 Lostintranslation
5/1 Clan Des Obeaux 5/1 Frodon 7/1 Native River
12/1 Might Bite 12/1 Santini 14/1 La Bague Au Roi
16/1 Delta Work

These are not entries
There are no entries right now
But a few firms have priced this up
There is a market on Betfair as well
So it's worth a very preliminary look
But there will be other horses
Not quoted above that will be running

BRISTOL DE MAI

Won this race in 2017 + 2018
We backed him last year 5/2
He then missed his prep race
He drifted badly in the market
From memory 5/2 out to 7/1
Nobody wanted to back him
He still went and won the race
He will surely run if healthy
He surely has to be a positive

Some of these above
May not even get there

SANTINI might not run here
LOSTINTRANSLATION may not
Both are Gold Cup prospects
Dont see the sense in running
Why would their trainers risk it
Far too intense a test too early
The race could just bottom them
Might never recover from a race
That takes an experienced type

Number of Chase starts

6 Lostintranslation
5 La Bague Au Roi
5 Delta Work
3 Santini

All these are very inexperienced

Past Betfair Chase winners

Had the following Chase runs

19 15 25 19 15 11 6 27 11 20 15 12

Silviniaco Conti did it with 6 runs
But in a very small field that year
All previous winners since 2006
Had at least 11 chase runs

No horse has won first time out
Without at least 11 Chase races
These are the horses to avoid

Far too early for selections
We don't have any entries yet
But the above will be negatives
Bristol De Mai will be a positive

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