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1 Account Bet
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Account Bet

Chepstow 5.30

MENIN GATE 5/1 - 9/2

Each Way


5/1 All firms except the following
9/2 Ladbrokes Hills Unibet Spbet

Firms offering 4 Places
Should be first port of call

Skybet 5/1
PPower 5/1
Boyles 5/1
Hills 9/2
Unibet 9/2

Will have to put this down
As just 3 places to be fair



Today's Message

Bank Holiday Monday
Ended up with 10 previews
Dropped Future Betting Angles
Not enough time to finish that

Cartmel 2.05
Chepstow 2.35
Cartmel 2.40
Southwell 3.00
Southwell 3.35
Cartmel 3.15
Epsom 3.40
Downpatrick 4.00
Southwell 4.45
Chepstow 5.30

Obviously looking for a bet

Plenty of smaller fields today
That and some non runners
Have led to some shorter prices

2 Options for a bet

Chepstow 5.30

MENIN GATE 5/1

Each Way

Topweight in a 12f handicap
Whilst he has been disappointing
He comes here with the right profile
Takes on a lot of unsafe horses
Short of experience for the track
He should be going close in this


Cartmel 2.40

ANDALEEP 5/1

Each Way

Could stake this in two ways
Nearly saved on the favourite
Who has beaten us 3 times
But decided to go each way
Could improve past this field


Similar bets
Similar prices

ANDALEEP's advantage is the field
Fewer runners with fewer dangers
But this is a much weaker market

Genuine toss up between the pair
Ability to get on has to be a factor
Which is part of the reason why
MENIN GATE just got the decision



Sunday's Summary

Sport overshadowed the racing
Australia cost me a decent profit
I hoped for a stress free Sunday
Didn't work out that way in the end
The previews held up well enough
The best bet Tukhoom won easily
Unstaked but pleased he won well
End of a heavy week so backed off


PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Cartmel 2.05

5/4 Heavey, 15/8 Mega Double
3/1 Aptly Put, 25/1 Oborne Lady.

Novice Hurdle 2m 6f

Should be a 3 horse race
Agree with the Racing Post
All 3 have legitimate claims
They are all different types

Novice Hurdles in August
Run over 2m 6f and more

Show horses aged 5
Under 5 lifetime starts
Have a 0-42 record
They show no 5 year old won
With just 1 hurdle race before (0-14)
HEALEY fails both those angles

August and September
Novice Hurdles over 2m 6f +
Horses aged 5
Under 5 career starts
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Running within 6 months
Have a 0-66 record in these months
HEALEY also fails this angle

APTLY PUT is a 7yo
Can't rule him out in a small field
But he has raced once since February
Could be underraced after 8 hurdle runs

MEGA DOUBLE in the same period
Has raced 5 times performing well
Intriguing profile as a mare
Who ran in a Handicap hurdle 2 days ago
Clearly the fittest and most tuned up horse
She has proven track form at Cartmell
The won the last time she had a recent run
Felt she was the best risk in the race

Selection

MEGA DOUBLE 7/4-15/8-2/1

Win Bet




Chepstow 2.35

11/10 Diamond Shower 5/2 Hellovaqueen,
11/4 / Mooroverthebridge 33/1 What A Dazzler
50/1 Yet Another.

Selling race

Horses aged 3-4-5 over 6f

Very few similar races
But given a track like Chepstow
DIAMOND SHOWER has a lot to prove
As a 3 year old from a 5f race

HELLOVAQUEEN is first choice
Gets the fillies allowance
Has a bit more racing recently
Going to split stake this race

Selection

Small Stakes

£7 Win Bet HELLOVAQUEEN 5/2

£3 Win Bet MOOROVERTHEBRIDGE 5/2




Cartmel 2.40

6/4 What Will Be, 5/2 Grey Girly, 9/2 Lucou
6/1 Andaleep, 10/1 Philyaboots, 14/1 Lady Shanawell
50/1 Wontgetfooledagen, 66/1 Eucalyptus,
100/1 Justice Shallow.

3yo Hurdle

GREY GIRLY is a filly
She has only had 1 career start

July August September
3yo Hurdles
Any distance since 2008
Fillies
Under 5 lifetime starts
Have a 0-82 record in them
GREY GIRLY fails this 0-82 record

LADY SHANAHILL is a filly
More experienced but hasn't done much
PHILABOOTS has a weak profile
No hurdle form coming from a mile flat race

LUCOU has come over from France
English debut 71 days ago was ok
But needs to find improvement
BEhind 2 of these last time out

WHAT WILL BE is a bit short
But best numbers and momentum

ANDALEEP is intriguing

His last 3 runs
He has finished behind What Will Be
Although he has a 0-3 record against him
He was entitled to need those races

He was never fancied in any of them
His is getting closer to him each time

Ground went against him at Stratford
Where he was entitled to need the run

Maybe he was being handicapped
ANDALEEP has his 4th crack at him
They have to be close together
He is not the biggest of horse
But round here in a weak race
He could be the value bet of the two

Selection

Option 1

£6 Win Bet ANDALEEP 5/1
£4 Win Bet WHAT WILL BE 11/8

Option 2

ANDALEEP 5/1

Each Way





Southwell 3.00

2/1 Maystar, 5/2 Strong Power, 6/1 One Bite
8/1 Augustus Caesar, 12/1 Merchants Breath
12/1 Royal Context, 16/1 Abbaleka, 20/1 Triple Spear
25/1 Kitos, Order Of Merritt, 33/1 Pearl Of India.

2yo Novice (5f)

Similar races in August
Run over any distance
Show horses with 3 + runs
Absent more than 78 days
Have a 0-75 record in them

STRONG POWER fails this angle
With 3 runs and 115 days off
May of course be better class
But the absence puts me off

There are 3 legitimate dangers
MAYSTAR looks the best of these
The frame of the race pushes me
Towards the following burglary bet

Selection

MAYSTAR 5/2-114

Each Way





Cartmel 3.15

5/2 Teaser, 100/30 Nietzsche
6/1 Wells De Lune, 6/1 Ardera Cross
13/2 Adrrastos 12/1 Raise A Spark

Handicap Chase 2m 1f

TEASER is on a hat trick
He is only a 4 year old
Started off winning a hurdle
Then 2 Novice Handicap Chases

Do we really want a 4 year old
At a complicated track like Cartmel

Go back to 1997
No 4 year old has won here
In any handicap chase in decades

In fact go back to 2006
In the last 13 years at Cartmel
In any and every handicap chase
We have not had a 5 year old winner
Never mind a 4 year old winner like him
Thats the reason I'd oppose him

The problem is the alternative
Only 7 runners and very hard to sort
RAISE A SPARK a 9yo with an absence
About the only other unsafe horse

NIETZSCHE has a chance
But very exposed and only a 6yo
Pretty exposed over hurdles
No Handicap form behind him
Others have achieved a lot more

Feel we have to split stake this
With proven classier handicappers

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet WELLS DE LUNE 4/1

£1.50 Win Bet ADRRASTOS 13/2 - 7/1




Southwell 3.35

3/1 Fantasy Keeper, 4/1 Zylan, 6/1 Airglow
7/1 Warrior's Valley, 7/1 Samovar, 8/1 Lomu
10/1 Crosse Fire, Dark Shot, 20/1 Ebitda.

5f Handicap

Tricky race

Southwell 5f races
June to October
Show horses aged 4 or more
Absent more than 8 weeks
Have a 0-24 record in them
SAMOVAR has 81 days off the track
No obvious reason to select him

Some of these are underraced

LOMU and EBITDA clearly are

AIRGLOW has raced twice in 2019
I would rather have more than that
CROSSE FIRE is running ow numbers

WARRIORS TALE has a chance
Needs excusing a heavy defeat last time
One possible excuse it was on Grass
Another was a high draw at Beverley
A race he was entitled to need as well

ZYLAN is respected
But a 7 year old with 1 run in 72 days
Racing off topweight isn't particularly safe
Especially having to drop from 7f to 5f

FANTASY KEEPER has a chance
But no Southwell experience
Just 1 run in the last 72 days as well

DARK SHOT has so much quality
Never wins but has so much class
This is his first run at Southwell
Has very limited All weather experience
But if it suits he could win this easily

He is very risky
But none of the other runners
Escape concerns or criticism
Feel we have to have something on him

Selection

Small Stakes

£5 Win Bet DARK SHOT 7/1

£5 Win Bet WARRIORS TALE 7/1




Epsom 3.40

15/8 Allegiant, 11/2 Mistiroc, 6/1 C'Est No Mour
13/2 Fairy Tale, 15/2 Ashazuri 10/1 Dance King
12/1 Brancaster.

12f Handicap
Amateur Riders

ALLEGIANT won last time
That was only over 10 furlongs
My concern is stamina over 12f

He has been 2nd here over 12f
He managed that just 3 runs ago
But that was in a weaker race than this
Didn't entirely convince he stayed there
Overall opposing him in this class

DANCE KING is a 9 year old
Wanted more from his last race
Don't want a stall 1 here over 12f
ASHAZURI is from a weak sire
BRANCASTER is bottomweight
Not sure he has the class

MISTIROC is hard to read
As an 8yo from a hurdle race
FAIRY TALE another hard to judge

C'EST NO MOUR is a track specialist
Several past winners have won this
Having ran at Brighton beforehand

Selection

Small Stakes

£8 Win Bet C'EST NO MOUR 3/1

£2 Win Bet MISTIROC 5/1




Downpatrick 4.00

6/4 Jaunty Warrior, 7/2 City Limits, 9/2 Castle Canny
7/1 Blaze A Trail, 10/1 Balgowlah, 14/1 Cappuccino Man
20/1 Three Is Company, 25/1 Premier D'troice.

Maiden hurdle 2m 6f

JAUNTY WARRIOR last ran 908 days ago
No hurdle form last seen in a bumper 2017
Ran his profile it's not particularly good
Much depends on his fitness and ability

Sired by Lucarno
Whose hurdles winners over 2m 4f +
With under 2 previous hurdle runs
Have a 0-38 record so far
Could easily win this race
But not convinced about him at all

CITY LIMITS offers the solid form
Nothing special after 9 hurdle runs
Best Racing Post Hurdle rating 111
But it still sets the standard in this
He must surely be the safest choice
Would rather be with him than not

Selection

CITY LIMITS 11/4-3/1

Each way



Southwell 4.45

7/4 Bhangra, 3/1 Quickly Does It
7/2 Double Martini, 4/1 Lyons Lane
16/1 Bluella, 20/1 Bluetta.

5f Novice

Not a lot to go go

QUICKLY DOES IT is a filly
She has a 353 day absence here

Go back to 2007
Look at every Southwell 5f race
Fillies of any age
Absent over 163 days
Have a 0-85 record in them

Not sure if that matters
But it stops me selecting her
The only sensible choice left
BHANGRA looks the right choice

Selection

BHANGRA 11/10

Win Bet

If you bet him at 11/10
Lay him back in running at 1.1
Just incase he ties up very late




Chepstow 5.30

4/1 Celtic Classic, 4/1 Tamok, 5/1 Kasuku,
11/2 Menin Gate 6/1 Sinndarella, 9/1 Atalanta Breeze
19/2 Estrela Star 12/1 Mongolia, 20/1 Lucky Lou
25/1 Miss Swift 33/1 Coastguard Watch
50/1 Mystical Jadeite 66/1 Redemptress,

3yo Handicap (12f)

August has 30 similar races

29 of the 30 winners
Ran within the previous 40 days

REDEMTRESS is absent too long

COASTGATE WATCH is absent 52 days
Not suitable coming from a 7f race
MONGOLIA is a filly absent 71 days
She has just downgraded stables cheaply
LUCKY LOU a filly absent 84 days
MYSTICAL JADEITE is outclassed

ATLANTA BREEZE has 298 days off
She has a problem with just 3 runs
Not many win 3yo handicaps here
With 3 previous races beforehand

MISS SWIFT has 3 career starts
Just 1 run this year not enough

KASUKU is a filly with 3 runs
She also has to step up half a mile
Hammered at 66/1 in a novice race
Hard to see her improving enough

TAMOK is a filly with 4 runs
Not keen on her 9 day absence
Inexperienced horses with recent runs
Do not score well in similar races
She also has to go up 2f in distance
Having raced just once in 82 days
Not a negative but has challenges

SINNDARELLA has 10 runs
With 4 runs this year a safe profile
But her numbers make her look slow

ESTRELA STAR is hard to read
Lightly raced and up in distance
The dilemma with his profile
Will 2 runs this season be enough
Most of his rivals have had more

CELTIC CLASSIC is a 3yo
Recent runs a strong profile
Found 4 similar winners to him
Including Fandango who won here
The stable would be my only concern

MENIN GATE is topweight rated 60
Profile and numbers perfectly acceptable
Drops from a 0-70 to a 0-58 today
He looks quite well treated
One of the more likely winners
He is built to carry topweight

Selection

MENIN GATE 5/1

Each Way

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