5 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet




Betting The Message

Last message of the week
Long winded Sunday message
Some bigger field sizes today
That has slowed me down a bit

Several hours ago
I was looking at highlighting a bet
Running in the 2pm Musselburgh
But an obscene drift in the market
Just tells me to step away from him

I think the 5 previews
Are quite similar in strength
Not sure what we will get back

Could go with a sly sneaky bet
Burglary bet in the Warwick 1.50
But those just pick themselves

There is a race at Naas
Where the record of past winners
Seems to steer us to a 9/1 chance
Lots I can't know or predict with him
Enough to stop me staking the bet
But I am going to make him my best

Today's Best Bet

Naas 4.20

MOUNT PELIER 9/1

Each Way





Saturdays Summary

It could have been quite a bit worse
Half way through it looked a calamity
RUSSIAN HAWK the main bet failed
I suppose that was not unexpected
Big field gluey ground and no pace
But is still lost and was the best bet
Katpoli by then had ran and got beat
Stoney Rover looked like the winner
Promise turned into a painful fourth
Totterdown failed in the Imperial Cup
But again an outside and not a shock
By this time it was getting depressing
The message did improve afterwards
Despite the different staking options
Pleasing that the last 3 bets all won
We really needed that to compensate
The best winner was saved till the end
The final tally was 5 losers 3 winners
The best bet included in those losers
But the 3 winners came fast and late
Helps to get some respectability back
From the depths that we had sank too
I came away from it feeling a lot better
Much as overall it wasn't what I wanted




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Warwick 1.50

13/8 Lock's Corner, 7/4 Flash The Steel,
5/2 Deyrann De Carjac, 12/1 Espoir De Guye,
20/1 Laxey, 33/1 Blackstairs Lad, 50/1 Bardd,
100/1 Battlebrave, 100/1 Bigchextocash,
100/1 Cobra Commander.

Novice Hurdle
Look to be 3-4 likely winners
LOCK'S CORNER has raced once
Didn't like him especially from Jonjo
But I asked my statistics for a view
They tell me I can not rule him out
Same with Espoir De Guye as well
Without a statistical negative here
I'd take the route of least resistance
DEYRANN DE CARJAC has positives
Betting him each way at 5/2 appeals
It won't suit everyone of course
But it is how I would play the race

Selection

DEYRANN DE CARJAC 5/2

Each Way




Musselburgh 2.00

7/2 For Three, Torrid, 5/1 Native Fighter,
7/1 Chingachgook, Golden Wolf, 10/1 Gemologist,
10/Murphy's Law, 14/1 Dark Ruler, Doctor Jazz,
20/1 Real Armani, 66/1 Smart Paco.

Maiden Hurdle
Several ex flat types here
With limited experience
Many of them from average sires

5 year olds in maiden hurdles
Who have no National Hunt form
But do have previous flat form
Have a poor 1-62 record in March

NATIVE FIGHTER has this 1-62 profile
That winner had 15 previous flat runs
He has 22 career starts on the flat
Those with 16 or more were 0-24
Similar results of these races suggest
NATIVE FIGHTER has an unsafe profile

TORRID is an 8 year old
They have a 9-142 record in these races
Those like him with over 11 runs are 2-45
Both had shorter absences than him
He has raced just once in 103 days

Horses aged 8 +
More than 1 career start
1 run in the previous 86 days
Return a 0-40 record in these races
TORRID shares this profile
I don't feel he is the safe type either

There are a few I don't fancy
But can't rule them out of winning
One of them could pop up to beat us
But overall they just lack positives
DARK RULER is one of those
DOCTOR JAZZ has raced once in 175 days
GEMOLOGIST is only a 4yo filly
Who has recently downgraded stables
MURPHYS LAW does not offer much

Shortlist

Can only shortlist 3 horses
Could cover all 3 with some savers
But not a bad each way race either

CHINGACHGOOK has a chance
Have No strong objections to him

GOLDEN WOLF has a 1 hurdle run
He has previous flat form as well
Returns 10 days after hurdling debut
My angles pass him as acceptable
A horse (Conquisto) won with his profile

FOR THREE has a safe profile too
Comes here with 2 respectable hurdle runs
He does make some each way appeal
He was going to be my selection here
But he has drifted badly in the market
Robbed me of a lot of confidence in him

So instead not betting him each way
Instead covering all 3 on my shortlist

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet FOR THREE 5/1-6/1

£1.50 Win Bet CHINGACHGOOK 8/1

£1.50 Win Bet GOLDEN WOLF 8/1





Naas 2.10

9/4 Momus, 7/2 Face The Facts, 5/1 Defy De Mee,
6/1 Espanito Bello, 13/2 Hotel Du Nord, Myth Buster,
16/1 Big Tommy, 20/1 Unexpected Depth, 25/1 Air Gold,
33/1 Hit The Tar, 50/1 Ballyboy Bridge, Table The Motion,
50/1 The Grey Knight, 66/1 Briggitie's Hill, Dont Go Yet,
66/1 Fair Minded, 100/1 Bowban, 100/1 Scanimax,
100/1 The Kitchenmecanic, 100/1 Ujumpthelastuwin,
100/1 Urban Cruiser.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 3f

Pretty open
Not easy to narrow down
There are 6 potential winners
Espanito Bello one of these
But hard to like him on his profile

So down to 5 runners

MOMUS has the best numbers
He does lack a bit of scope
But he is comfortably clear on RPR

I'm thinking each way options

MOMUS was top of my early list
But he is stepping up 3 furlongs
Running 14 days ago concerns me

March Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f or more
Horses aged 6
From a 2m hurdle
Over 5 career starts
Running within 3 weeks
Return a 0-24 record
MOMUS the 25th to try

FACE THE FACTS was considered
But this stat was not supportive

February March ApriL
Maiden Hurdles 2m 1f +
Horses aged 5
Coming from a maiden hurdle
Absent more than 4 week
Under 4 hurdle runs
Previous flat racing form
Horses with this profile were 0-35

FACE THE FACTS could easily win
Just that none like him have
DEFY DE MEE is his stablemate
Hard to predict , select or rule out

HOTEL DU NORD has a good profile

March Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 1f +
Horses aged 6
Coming from maiden hurdle
2 previous hurdle runs
Under 4 lifetime starts
Absent 70-110 days
Returns a 4-16 record

Not sure what to make of him
Modus fails a 0-24 profile
Face The Facts a 0-35 profile
I don't see either as negatives
But makes sense at a bigger price
To go with the better 4-16 profile

Selection

HOTEL DU NORD 5/1

Each Way





Warwick 3.55

4/1 Sheneededtherun, 5/1 Cucklington,
5/1 Global Dream, 6/1 Petiville, 13/2 Zerachiel,
10/1 Goodnight Charlie, 10/1 The Boss's Dream,
14/1 Optimistic Bias, Pauls Hill.

3m 5f Handicap Chase

Past winners had the following Chase runs
15 17 42 13 12 3 15 15 20 14 5 13 10 15
Not many lighter raced winners

The only winner with 3 Chase runs
Had a featherweight with 10st 1lbs
PETIVILLE has 3 runs and 11st 5lbs
He also comes from a Novice race
None of the past winners did that
PAULS HILL has just 4 chase runs
He has topweight and is only a 7yo
Not for me coming from a Novice

OPTIMISTIC BIAS is 10 years old
Fewer runs this year than every other
I'd question his fitness and current form
ZERACHIEL was 4th in this race last year
This year he has 10lbs more weight
He's only had 1.5 proper runs this season
Neither the form or preparation for 11st 12lbs

CUCKLINGTON likes smaller fields
Should go well if he stays as expected
But he has never won in Class 3 before
He would prefer the ground quite softer

GOODNIGHT CHARLIE is a 9yo mare
She has some of her best runs here
But all her wins and in Class 4-5 races
They are also off much lower marks
Needs a career best to take this race

Shortlist

GLOBAL DREAM is a positive
Has decent course and distance form
Never won off his current mark
Never won beyond 3 miles before
But his numbers suggest he can do both
Consistently runs RPR's in the 130's
Looks capable of winning of 122

SHENEEDEDTHERUN is a 9yo mare
One run since Welsh National Day
She is hard to judge as an older mare
She has won at Warwick
She looks a very likely stayer as well
She has enough to shortlist as well

THE BOSS'S DREAM is 11 years old
She may be the oldest horse in the race
But she is not too exposed
She has 2 good recent races as well
Flopped in this race last season
But made him a negative last season
Had a tough weight and just 3 chases
On current form she is a big player

This is difficult
Have a shortlist of 3 horses
Tight margins but seems realistic

The final angle

Last time out Racing Post Ratings

131 Global Dream
120 Petiville
117 Optimistic Bias
117 Gardiners Hill
116 The Boss's Dream
109 Sheneededtherun
109 Cucklington
102 Pauls Hill
73 Goodnight Charlie
0 Zerachiel

GLOBAL DREAM is well clear
His 131 Racing Post Rating last time
11lbs clear of every other horse last time out
And 9lbs ahead of his current handicap mark

Not sure how significant that is
But it makes him the selection here
Could bet him each way 4/1-9/2
Or win only and save on the shortlisters

Selection

£6 Win Bet GLOBAL DREAM 4/1

£2 Win Bet SHENEEDEDTHERUN 9/2

£2 Win Bet THE BOSS'S DREAM 4/1




Naas 4.20

4/1 West Coast Time, 8/1 Count Simon, High School Days,
9/1 Laverteen, Mount Pelier, 9/1 Sayar, Spades Are Trumps,
12/1 Gran Geste, 16/1 Dromore Lad, Golden Jewel, Hareth,
20/1 Ilikedwayurthinkin, Mary Frances, Sandymount Duke,
25/1 Spider Web, The Big Lense, 25/1 Masterstonemason,
33/1 Torcello, 33/1 Jimmy Breekie.

Handicap hurdle over 2m 3f

Looks very competitive


WEST COAST TIME is favourite
Quality connections and respected
But just 1 run in the last 403 days
Have to take a sharp intake of breath
SAYAR also has 1 run this season

These horses
Do pass the main angles in this race
If you look at the last recent renewals

Horses with over 12 career runs are 1-67
Horses with over 10 Hurdle runs are 1-51
So you want a lighter raced horse
The last 9 winners ran within 64 days
We had 8 of the 9 running within 44 days

The best profile is this

Under 10 years old
Under 12 career starts
Under 10 hurdle starts
Running within 44 days

8 of the 9 winners had this profile
This leads to the following shortlist

WEST COAST TIME 4/1
SAYAR 9/1
MOUNT PELIER 10/1
THE BIG LENSE 14/1

Having just 1 run in Months
If we apply that angle to the shortlist
SAYAR then gets rejected
WEST COAST TIME gets rejected
THE BIG LENSE could be too
He's raced just once since October

We could make a wrong turn here

MOUNT PELIER is my preference
The others on the shortlist
Have raced once in at least 5 months
MOUNT PELIER has 4 runs in that time

He also had a good run 8 days ago
Maybe that race will come too soon
Maybe that race will be an advantage

But he is fit and a decent price
No shame on Handicap Debut last time
Ran into a Huge gambled improver
MOUNT PELIER tried to give him 20lbs

I like his positives and his price
But there is much I can't predict about him

Selection

MOUNT PELIER 9/1-10/1

Each Way





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Cheltenham

Starts Tuesday

Obviously this takes full priority
Going to be a high tempo week
Future Betting Angles is benched
Really can't see me having the time

Little sign of the major bookmakers
Going 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4 in hurdle races
Surprised if they relent and offer this
Having had their fruit machines limited
This is probably there way of payback

Don't have time to follow these issues
Neither Fobt's or prize money disputes
Horse Racing is on a road to extinction
We are feeding from it's dying breath

Cheltenham is going to be difficult
There is not that much skill involved
Good luck may be the bigger factor
It is really just selective guesswork

Some stats will narrow races down
But many races will demand a guess
We have been brainwashed all winter
Paying attention to Cheltenham clues
Mainly by people who don't win money
And have no incentive to help us win


Somebody smarter than me wrote

" People who inhabit betting markets
agree to disagree and what they agree
to disagree about is information and how
to interpret it. Punters spend most of their
time trying to be ahead of the game, without
ever realising that they are actually part of it.
The illusion of control leads them to believe
that they are the only ones that know a true
price of anything; when, in fact, the true price
is something that is only ever revealed when
an event has concluded "


The weather forecast for Tuesday
Is for Heavy rain from 6am to 11am

I follow this professional on Twitter
He's walking the track this morning
Said he would update his findings
Will let you know if it is interesting

People often ask me about Twitter
Some interested to know who I follow
I am slowly considering doing this

What I have found out since on there
The Saturday races priced up midweek
Many of the first off the block gambles
Do seem to originate partly via Twitter

I would best describe this phenomenon
As Twitters Tipster Industrial complex
The same faces inhabit the same place
Many do come to the same conclusions
Yet to be persuaded this is good work

There are some very talented judges
Still young and learning their trade
I don't think you can master this game
Until you live through the full careers
Of the sire and dams of today's horses

I watch many of the Twitterati tipsters
Some have so much natural talent
But I see them ignore crucial factors
Mistakes they one day will not make
And they will overtake me in the future
Young Bucks who are still optimistic


Monday

There is a message
Normally take Cheltenham Monday off
But felt I should given I was off sick
This does present an opportunity

Sunday lunchtime
Cheltenham Tuesday Decs are through

I could actually do Tuesdays message
And send the analysis Monday morning
Would not have the final bets of course
But could get most of that done Sunday
Start Mondays cards very early that day
That's an option and I might well do this


Generic Flat Statistics

Mick had a request in
Can I do some Generic stats on the flat
Probably could
But where on earth do you start

Anyway had a play around
Came up with the following


Flat Season (Turf)

Class 2 Handicaps

Any Month
Any distance
7 + runners
Since 2018

Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 4 weeks
Have a 1-137 record


Flat Season (Turf)

Class 2 Handicaps

12f or shorter
Any Month
7 + runners
Since 2017

Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 48 days
Have a 0-115 record

Generic Stats are not difficult
Once you are in the right zone
With time and a flowing imagination
You can create them out of nothing



Weeks Holiday April 23rd

Still feel so guilty to be doing this
But not had a holiday in over 10 years
Had to make a promise to the Duchess

I will have to take this week off

Away Tuesday 23rd April
Back Wednesay 1st May

Only have to miss 1 weekend
Hope to resume messages May 2nd
The start of 1000-2000 Guineas week

Thought about a stand in tipster
Both Mick and I looked at options
We came down to a shortlist of one
Decided not to go down that route
I suggested we should steal his work
Mick boringly stopped me doing this

Anyone within the service
Who feels they want to contribute
Money in the pot available for you
Whether thats small or long content
It doesn't have to be daily either
There is a Ole Gunner Solskjaer out there

Mick is happier trusting people here
Who we know trust and see their work

I am going to be in Morrocco
If I can get a good internet connection
I will be positing on the message board
As I will be bored out of my skull there



Football


Europa League Update

£7 Win Bet Napoli 10/1
£3 Win Bet Sevilla 14/1

Round of 16 results (1st Leg)

Napoli 3-0 Redbull
Sevilla 2-2 Slavia Praha

Napoli look home and hosed
They are now 7/2 to win the cup
Sevilla had a disappointing result
They are out to 14/1 to qualify now
They will need to win at Slavia Praha

Personally I think they will do it
Both sides are 10/11 to qualify
Seville are only our saver bet
Very happy with this bet so far


Champions League

Atletico Madrid

Best priced 8/1 third favourites

Paris St Germain are eliminated
Atletico play on Tuesday evening
They take a 2-0 lead to Juventus
They are generally 2/9 to qualify

Friday 15th March

Quarter Final and Semi Final Draws
Assuming we get through on Tuesday
We will know our path to the final
No seedings of country protections
Just a normal right out of the hat draw
Got a very good feeling about Atletico


Salford

It has been a couple of weeks
Since I mentioned this subject

Following my Salford meltdown
Vowed to shut up about them

Anyway since then
They have played 3 matches
They have won all 3 games
They won them with clean sheets
Their position has improved now

League Table

36 Leyton Orient 70pts
37 Wrexham 69pts
36 Solihil Moors 67pts
37 Salford City 66pts
36 AFC Fylde 64pts

SALFORD are in 4th place
Only 4 points off the leaders
But we have played a game more

There are 9 games left
I think we have a good run in
The Next two games

Aldershot (22nd) away
Barnet (19th) at Home

Playing relegation teams

Think we have to win all 9 games
Winning outright is just not realistic
I think the recent W W W record
Has just prolonged the inevitable

Almost all of my own Salford stakes
Has been on them win not each way
So I have written off my own losses
Which feel similar to Lehman brothers

But the bet we had back in July 2018
Was advised as an each way single
So we still could make the first 3 home
We are in 4th now with a good run in

Salford are generally 11/1-12/1 chances
But that is to win the National League
Still have a reasonable place chance

Whats killed them really
Has been 2 nightmare periods
Could put it down to many things
But they were found out in the end
It has certainly been a zig zag season
But on an upward curve at the moment
A few more wins could be interesting


Arsenal v Man United

4.30pm Kick off

Going to watch this match
Want to have an interest bet

How on earth do you call it
I am rooting for a United win
The bet I want to have

Draw No bet market

Arsenal 4/5

Win Bet

If the game is a Draw
The bet is completely voided

If United win I will be happy anyway
If Arsenal win I make a profit
I see this as an insurance bet
Not many people bet like this
They may feel it kills enjoyment
Personally it just suits my style

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