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Today's Message

Warwick 12.50
Wolverhampton 3.35
Chelmsford 4.20
Wolverhampton 5.05
Wolverhampton 6.05


Today's Best Bet

Wolverhampton 3.35

ISABELLA RUBY 5/1-11/2-6/1

Each Way



Cheltenham starts tomorrow
The December two day fixture
Currently good to soft ground
With 12mm rain forecast today

In terms of today's Nat Hunt
Not much of it suitable to do
Many races I do like to cover
Have long odds on favourites
So today is mainly All weather


Today's Best Bet

Wolverhampton 3.35

ISABELLA RUBY 5/1-11/2-6/1

Each Way


Thought about staking this
But the price has been clipped

She is only a filly as well
Would rather bet at Cheltenham
There will be a bet tomorrow


I have 2 other smaller bets


Wolverhampton 3.35

Dodgy Bob 20/1


Runs in the same race
As my best Isabella Ruby does
Don't think it will win the race
But it could well be a danger
Call it a saver bet if you prefer

Also had an interest bet
In the General Election
Based on work done later

Betfair Prices

Size of Conservative Majority

Win Bet 50-74 Majority 4/1

Saver Bet 25-49 Majority 5/2

No official Bet

But should be a big price one
Running at Cheltenham Friday





Wednesdays Summary

Short practice message yesterday
Covering just four Lingfield races
Ended up with 2 winners 2 losers
Dubious Affair my best bet did win
Short but very safe and competent



PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Warwick 12.50

9/4 Welsh Saint, 100/30 Firak, 5/1 Sleight Of Hand
13/2 Kalooki, 10/1 Towards The Dawn, 11/1 Major Dundee
14/1 Clondaw Promise, 16/1 Some Detail, 18/1 Hacksaw Ridge
22/1 Apple Rock, 25/1 Writteninthesand, 33/1 Somekindofstar
50/1 Agent Valdez, 66/1 Straw Fan Jack, 100/1 Cobra Angel
100/1 Dom Garo Cateline, 100/1 Richie Valentine
150/1 Top Of The Morning.

2m 5f Maiden Hurdle

WELSH SAINT will go close
He was my initial first choice here
He has an extra runs experience
And the best numbers in the race

FIRAL though is my final choice
Initially I was concerned about him
As a 4yo with just 1 run over hurdles
But his profile is pretty decent

Similar 2m 5f maiden hurdles
Male horses aged 4
1 career run
1 hurdle run
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Have a 3-13 record in them
Including the 2009 winner of this race

Described by his trainer
As mature beyond his years
He looks the sensible each way bet

WELSH SAINT could easily win
But was beaten at odds on on debut
Found nothing before he eventually fell
His last run was creditable enough
But there was no strength in depth

FIRAK each way brings advantages
That a win bet on the favourite doesn't

Selection

FIRAK 7/2-4/1

Each Way





Wolverhampton 3.35

5/1 Alaskan Bay, Sagittarian Wind, 6/1 Valley Belle
7/1 Poppy May, 8/1 Cuban Spirit, 8/1 Isabella Ruby
10/1 Dodgy Bob, Illustrious Spirit, 10/1 Nananita
14/1 Loveatfirstlight, 20/1 Savannah Beau
33/1 Rock Warbler, 66/1 Auntie June.

6f Classified Stakes

22 similar races in December

Ideally looking for recent runs
Acceptable numbers last time

Similar races under a mile
Show horses absent 65 + days
Having over 7 career starts
Have a 0-37 record in them
ALASKAN BAY has 19 runs
May find 142 days off too long
ILLUSTRIOUS SPIRIT is wrong
Having raced once in 194 days
Several of these are outclassed
AUNTIE JANE + ROCK WARBLER
SAVANNAH BEAU is underraced

No filly won with under 5 runs
LOVEATFIRSTLIGHT has 4 runs
Least experienced in this race

CUBAN SPIRIT lacks positives
Having ran 2 stinkers in a row
NANANITS has recent runs
Parts I do like about her profile
But she is a small filly drawn 13
Wolves 6f races since 2013
Fillies drawn 13 or more are 0-22


POPPY MAY is drawn 12
Don't feel that is a good draw
Good chance on her best form
Her last 2 runs after 5 months off
Will not be good enough to win
She was entitled to need them
But will need to improve today

SAGITTARIAN WIND a 3yo filly
Comes here after running a stinker
Needs a serious bounce back here
Don't see why she should produce one
Might win but has to be very risky

VALLEY BELLE ran 3 days ago
Racing Post Rating of only 34
3yo filly not quite offers enough

DODGY BOB has 50 days absence
Modest horse but they all are here
He has a 0-21 All weather record
That does not bother me in this
Plenty to his sand runs win this
But they were so long ago now

ISABELLA RUBY is a 4yo filly
She has a 0-24 career record
But her 2 career best races
Came in her previous 3 runs
Sandwiched by a heavy ground loss
She can win this on those 2 runs

Racing Post Ratings
Last time out figures
ISABELLA RUBY is 7lbs clear

Selection

ISABELLA RUBY 5/1-11/2-6/1

Each Way





Chelmsford 4.20

3/1 Beat The Breeze, 5/1 Don'tyouwantmebaby
6/1 Light Lily 6/1 Twittering, 7/1 Surrajah, 10/1 Star Of St Louis
12/1 Leg It Lenny 14/1 The Works, 20/1 Cesifire, 20/1 Heleta,
20/1 Jane Victoria, Sea Willow.

7f Nursery

BEAT THE BREEZE has 4 runs
Has a chance but not too convinced
Only raced once since July 2019

Plenty of these have absences
Combined with experience as well
HELETA a filly with 72 days off
SURRAJAH has 118 days off
LIGHT LILY only 3 runs
Filly starting 66/1 last time as well
CESIFIRE offers little quality
LEGIT LENNY has to carry topweight
Combined with 11 days absence
STAR OF ST LOUIS is badly drawn
DON'TYOUWANTMEBABDY is a filly
Just 3 runs and several weeks off

TWITTERING looks the solid option
Every chance he didn't stay 8f last time
Down in trip with a recent run today
Experienced and should go close

Stop Press

BEAT THE BREEZE a non runner

Selection

TWITTERING 11/4

Win Bet




Wolverhampton 5.05

5/2 Holy Eleanor, 11/4 Secret Smile, 3/1 Jalwan
9/2 Millionaire Waltz, 14/1 Rich Girl, 16/1 Golden Times
25/1 Whitehaven, 33/1 High Maintenance, Paint It Black.

7f Maiden

Shapes like a 4 horse race

JAWLAN has a chance obviously
But will he stay and on his 3rd run
Maybe he is being handicapped

SECERT SMILE has ran 4 times
She is not the biggest of fillies
Solid but hardly looks progressive

HOLY ELEANOR ran 8 days ago
Brings nursery form into a maiden
Like her recent run when drawn 1
She could catch the others out
I would see her as a useful saver
Much depends how stall 9 treats her

MILLIONAIRE WALTZ has ability
Excuses for all of his runs so far
Needed the race at Newbury
Had the widest passage last time
I would split stake this maiden

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet MILLIONAIRE WALTZ 11/2

£3.50 Win Bet HOLY ELEANOR 7/4





Wolverhampton 6.05

5/2 Seaforth, 4/1 Mercury, 5/1 I Think So, Maqboola
9/1 Navarra Princess, 12/1 The British Lion, 16/1 Muzaawel
20/1 Baile Ghilibert, Beau Geste, Invincible One
25/1 Prince Consort, Rebecke, 33/1 Castelo.

8f Handicap
For horses rated 0-53

Some intriguing challenges here
MAQBOOLA is a 3yo filly with 3 runs
She has to come from 5f to 8f
Looked at every similar handicap
No filly won a race doing that
Without at least 8 previous runs (0-43)
MUZAAWELL only has 3 career starts
Long absence his profile is unsafe
MERCURY is 7 years old
Can not bet him with 1 run in 251 days
NAVARRA PRINCESS has 1 run in 187 days
SEAFORTH won last time out
He was a 25/1 chance and is a 7yo
Could be on the bounce today
Having his second race in 126 days
And every 8f race run here this season
None came from stall 13 as he tries to

BRITISH LION can't be ruled out
But his numbers are a grade behind
Recent runs get him a saver role

I THINK SO is topweight
His numbers make him the solid option
I'd have liked a more recent run
But very few of these horses have that
And those that do are scoring badly

Selection

£9 Win Bet I THINK SO 11/4-3/1-7/2

£1 Win Bet BRITISH LION 8/1




FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


1) General Election
2) Europa League
3) Caspian Caviar Gold Cup




General Election Update

Arrived at Polling Day
Reminder of our position

Conservative Party Seats

£5 Win Bet 340 or more Evens
£5 Win Bet 330-339 Seats at 9/1

Happy with the position
The saver of 340 + seats
Roughly trading around 1.92
Between 330-339 Seats is 9/2
So we have a little bit of value
Anything under 330 seats
The bet will then be a loser

The reason for this bet
Spreadex's index prices
Back then they predicted
346 Conservative Seats
62 Conservative majority

Since then
The Polls have tightened
The last major poll results
Suggested a 28 majority


SPREADEX

Latest index Predictions

Conservative 340
Labour 222
SNP 43
Liberals 20
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Brexit Party 1

SPREADEX PRECTIONS
Conservative Majority 49

YOUGOV PREDICTIONS
Conservative Majority 28

No contest for me
Spreadex can not afford to be wrong

Yougov's 28 majority feels wrong
It's roots are in the Conservative party
Much as this will sound conspiratorial
This will scare a few people to vote
Seems very convenient they go low


Spreadex' Conservative Majority

Their spread is 336-344

The middle point is 340

If people believe Yougov
And based their bets on this
They would be selling at 336

If Yougov are right
And there is a 28 seat Majority
Spreadex would get battered
These people are too smart

That 336-444 spread
Will be based on the best minds
And the best data money can but

Spreadex profit
Comes from their being
Between 337 and 443 Tory seats

YouGov predict a majority of 28
Spreadex predict a majority of 49
Sporting index suggest it will be 51

I would take the view
Dump the Polls
Trust the Spreads
Based on their markets

There is probably going to be
A rough conservative majority of 49-50-51

That is not my opinion
I have no dog in this fight
It's an opinion based on indexes






Europa League

Man Utd 5/1 Arsenal 11/2 Sevilla 7/1
Inter Milan 8/1 AFC Ajax 10/1 Roma 14/1
FC Red Bull Salzburg 16/1 Wolves 16/1
B. M'gladbach 22/1 Porto 22/1 Benfica 25/1
Eintracht Frankfurt 25/1 Sporting Lisbon 25/1
Wolfsburg 25/1 Celtic 33/1 Espanyol 33/1
Braga 40/1 P.S.V. 40/1 Basel 50/1 Lazio 50/1


INTER MILAN 9/1-8/1

Mentioned them two weeks ago
But there were no prices available
Now out of the Champions League
They now drop into this tournament
I was expecting to get about 5/1

9/1 Bet 365 Boyles Skybet VC
8/1 Betfred Ladbrokes Hills Corals
7/1 PPower

Not everyone has priced up
But those that have are 8/1-9/1
That seems a very generous price
For a team leading Seria A by 2pts

The place terms are 1/2 odds 1-2
You get 9/2 about being in the final
I had priced them up at 5/1 to win it
So looks sensible for an £8 £2 split
Get to the final the bet will be safe

My Euorpa League selection

INTER MILAN 9/1-8/1

£8 Win

£2 Place

(1/2 odds 1-2)





Ante Post Statistics

Saturday

Cheltenham 1.55

Caspian Caviar Gold Cup

2m 4f Handicap Chase

Riders Onthe Storm 4/1 Cepage 6/1 Brelan d'As 10/1
Not That Fuisse 10/1 Secret Investor 10/1 Clondaw Castle 12/1
Warthog 12/1 Benatar 14/1 Good Man Pat 14/1 Keeper Hill 14/1
Casablanca Mix 16/1 Eamon An Cnoic 16/1 Generous Day 16/1
Knocknanuss 16/1 Lalor 16/1 Robin des Foret 16/1
Spiritofthegames 16/1 Kobrouk 20/1 Didero Vallis 25/1
Guitar Pete 25/1 Imperial Presence 33/1Theinval 33/1


Number of Chase runs

26 Theinval
24 Guitar Pete
15 Imperial Presence
15 Kobrouk
14 Cepage
13 Eamon An Cnoic
12 Brelan d'As
11 Casablanca Mix
10 Robin Des Foret
9 Knocknanuss
8 Benatar
7 Didero Vallis
7 Clondaw Castle
7 Keeper Hill
7 Spiritofthegames
6 Generous Day
6 Riders Onthe Storm
6 Good Man Pat
5 Lalor
3 Not That Fuisse



October November December
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class
Over any Distance since 2008
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 36 days
Have a 0-125 record in them

Past winners had these absences
28 28 28 36 22 22 29 28 28 28 188 28 40
22 of the last 24 ran within 40 days

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 0-69 record since 1997

The last 16 winners of this
All came from 2m 3f or more last time
Those coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a 0-36 record since 1993

Past winners chase starts
20 15 5 7 24 5 3 6 12 7 9 6
9 9 8 7 13 8 9 19 9 14 13 22

16 of the last 19 winners
Had under 14 Chase runs
Only 1 winner had under 5 chase runs
That was unusual with a 4yo taking this

Horses from recent 3m races
Have a 0-29 record in this race

Listed/Graded Handicap Chases
Run at Cheltenham since 2007
Any month of the year
Horses aged 6 won 15 races
Those with 11st 9lbs + are 1-20
That was Frodon winning last year
But he had a big class advantage
Rated 12lbs better than the others

Horses with 11st 9lbs or more
Have a 1-34 record in this since 1997
That was last years winner Frodon
Previous winner with 11st 11lbs or more
Was a long way back in 1973 (Pendil)

Only 3 horses aged 6
Have won Similar Handicaps here
With more than 11st in weight
Frodon (twice) and Poquelin did this
In an overall 3-77 record
Those with under 17 career runs 0-56
Those with under 7 chase runs are 0-29

Past winners
Had the following runs this year
2 4 4 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 3 1 3

Horses with 1 run this season
Have a 4-101 record in this race
These 4 winners had 6 7 24 6 chase runs
Horses with under 6 chase runs
Having 1 run that season
Have a 0-25 record in this race

8 of the last 20 winners of this race
Prepped in the BetVictor Gold Cup

Past winners
Had the following runs this year
2 4 4 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 2
2 3 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 1 0 2
Seasonal debutantes last won in 2007

Horses with 1 run that season
Absent more than 4 weeks are 0-25


Full Preview Saturday

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