5 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
1 Highlighted Bet



Highlighted Bet

Split Stake bet


Beverley 2.15

£6 Win Bet TWENTYSVNTHLANCERS 15/2

£2 Win Bet MR GREENLIGHT 4/1

£2 Win Bet ATYAAF 5/1



Message Highlights

First message of the week
Not fit for purpose yesterday
Sunday's exciting exertions
Just cost me too much time

But I am fully refreshed now
Starting the week with a bet
I'm afraid this is rather ugly
Staking 2 savers in this race


Not much else is going on today

Beverley 2.15
Bath 3.00
Bath 5.00
Southwell 7.00
Killarney 7.20

Just Noticed 1 of my selections
Has pulled out and does not run
Had to go with a replacement bet
This was also a system bet as well

Should not expect too much
From a scrappy Tuesday really
But decided to have one bet

Difficult race
So no surprise if he fails here
But I think I made a case for him
Because in his last 4 races
He was facing difficult draws


Beverley 2.15

£6 Win Bet TWENTYSVNTHLANCERS 15/2

£2 Win Bet MR GREENLIGHT 4/1

£2 Win Bet ATYAAF 5/1


What this ugly staking means

TWENTYSVNTHLANCERS at 15/2

Becomes a win single at over 4/1

With Money back on two horses
Both unexposed 4 year olds
Who could easily improve to win

You could improve that 4/1 price
Because he is bigger on Betfair 9/1


What would sicken me
If One Boy were to win at 14/1
Personally I just don't fancy him
But he was gambled yesterday
And is the stablemate of our bet

Other than that
Slim pickings really

I could have mentioned another
That was in the 7.20 at Killarney
Just not sure if I can trust him

Ugly Staked Bet

Mediocre Message

But the staking could be effective
And I chose that rather than e/way





Sundays Review

There was no Monday message
Decided to use that as my day off
Washed out watching the Tennis
Didn not feel I could perform well
That leaves us Sunday to review
Message finished L W L L P L L W
Overall I not impressed with that
Feel I was right not to have a bet
Worry about the unfamiliar horses
Our Brian 4/1 one example of that
Drifted out and stunk in the market
Bachelor beaten early hurt things
He was part of the days best bet
Although the second preview won
Bachelor set the tone for the day
The winners we had not enough
To come close to being profitable




PROFILES & PREVIEW



Beverley 2.15

5/1 Hello Girl, 6/1 Cuppacoco, 7/1 Twentysvnthlancers,
7/1 Atyaaf, Mr Greenlight 8/1 Groundworker, 12/1 One Boy,
12/1 Pearl Noir, 14/1 Encoded 16/1 Oriental Splendour,
33/1 Savannah Beau 33/1 Seamster, Tick Tock Croc
50/1 Moonlit Sands.

5f Handicap

Ideal candidate is a very fit horse
Running well with a decent draw

MOONLIT SANDS is a filly
Absent 298 days from stall 14
She needs to be opposed

SAVANNAH BLUE is absent too long
TIC TOCK CROCK has 274 days off

Beverley 5f races
Since 2011
Horses Aged 6 or more
Drawn in stall 9 or higher
Absent more than 12 days
Have a 0-77 record in them
SAVANNAH BLUE fails this
GROUNDWORKER fails this
He has a 0-29 record on G-Firm

Several of these are outclassed
Running numbers far too low
ENCODED is not running well

ONE BOY'S Numbers are poor
He could be one to bear in mind
He was being backed for this yesterday
Normally I would still oppose him
But he is a stablemate of my main fancy
Which raises eyebrows about the race
Would consider him as a small saver bet

ORIENTAL SPELDOUR is modest
Has at least won a race this season
But generally he is very beatable
PEARL NOIR is a badly drawn 9yo
Hard to like after a poor last run

CUPPACOCO is a 4yo filly
Every chance on 2 recent runs
Last time she was drawn 16 here
Best to forgive her that poor run
But similar races in July show
Fillies aged 4 beaten over 7 lengths
Have a 0-61 record trying to bounce back

SEAMSTER is a 12 year old
Not impossible a 12yo could win
But his age surely a disadvantage


HELLO GIRL is a 4yo filly
Her best numbers are over 6f
Chances but see more likely winners

MR GREENLIGHT is a 4yo with 10 runs
Decent profile fit and running very well
No surprise if he were to win this race
Needs to make sure Stall 1 is a positive

MR GREENLIGHT looks a saver
He has raced twice in 11 days now
No other horse in the race
Has raced twice or more this month

ATYAAF is a 4yo with 12 runs
Perfectly acceptable profile
The last 2 winners of this handicap
Were 4 year olds with 11 and 13 runs
May take a career best for him to win
The stable are not firing that well
Have doubts but his profile is safe

TWENTYSVNTHLANCERS is a 6yo
Well handicapped and has the ability
One of his problems is inconsistency
Another is his average recent numbers

We need to cut him some slack
He has had some horrible draws
Just look at his previous 4 races

July 5th drawn 17 of 17 at Beverley
June 18th drawn 17 of 17 at Thirsk
June 6th drawn 12 of 14 at Ripon
May 2nd drawn 13 of 14 at Musselburgh
None of these were helpful draws

Whilst suffering these 4 bad draws
He was also running himself fitter
And dropping a few lbs in the weights

Selection

£6 Win Bet TWENTYSVNTHLANCERS 15/2

£2 Win Bet MR GREENLIGHT 4/1

£2 Win Bet ATYAAF 5/1




Bath 3.00

5/2 Done Deal, 7/2 Victoriano
4/1 Singing The Blues, 9/2 Mister Chiang
11/2 Hermocrates, 12/1 Gendarme
33/1 Lady Natasha.

1m 6f Handicap

SINGING THE BLUES

The other day
I mentioned a 10 day system

Horses aged 2-3-4-5
Running within 1-2-3 days
Running in Handicaps
Class 4 and lower grade
Beaten under 4 lengths
Starting under 10/1

In the last 10 days
14 Horses had this profile
8 won and 12 placed
SINGING THE BLUES has this profile
Qualifies as a selection on this system

Not sure what his best distance is
But he has won on sand over this far
I Do like the 3 day absence he has
He should beat these older horses

DONE DEAL has a weak profile
He has raced just once in months
Stepping up 3 furlongs in distance
Concedes weight to everything

GENDARME is a 4yo up from 10f
June July August
Similar 1m 6f handicaps
Show horses aged 4
Coming from 10f or shorter are 0-35

SINGING THE BLUES
Does face some 3 year olds here
That could be his biggest challenge

Victoriano
Mister Chiang
Hermocrates

All similar types of 3 year old
Their profiles and quite safe
Without being obviously strong
I would see these are the threat

Only 7 runners complicates things
Not a strong selection in this race
But decided to follow the system

Selection
SINGING THE BLUES 100/30
Win Bet

Stop Press

SINGING THE BLUES is a non runner
Replacement selection

£8 Win Bet HERMOCRTATES 3/1
£2 Win Bet VICTORIANO 4/1







Bath 5.00

2/1 The Game Is On, 5/1 King Oswald
6/1 Imperial Act, 7/1 The British Lion, 9/1 Sea Tea Dea
10/1 Johni Boxit, Tally's Son, 12/1 Red Gunner
16/1 Bonny Blue, 33/1 Ramblow.

8f Handicap
Low Grade race

Only 2 horses aged 3 in this race
Neither of them look safe enough
Including Mark Prescotts favourite

THE GAME IS ON
Similar 8f handicaps show
Horses aged 3
Coming from 7f or shorter
More than 4 career starts
Under 4 runs that season
Have a 0-35 record in them
THE GAME IS ON has this profile

Only just fails it
He is very lightly races
But dont like what he is being asked
And is priced up on trainer reputation

BONNY BLUE is the other 3yo
Coming from 5f to 8f puts me off him

RAMBLOW makes little appeal
TALLY'S SON is not my first choice
May just be short of runs this year
SEA TEA DEA is a mare up in trip
With an absence her profile is unsafe
JOHNI BOXIT is short of recent runs
His 3f drop in distance hurts him too

Only 4 horses
Have profiles good enough to select

THE BRITISH LION has a chance
Never won over a mile before
But his profile is still acceptable

RED GUNNER has a chance
Entitled to need his previous run
I can find a winner like him

KING OSWALD is an exposed 6yo
Profile is enough to shortlist him

IMPERIAL ACT is a 4yo filly
Despite a 39 day absence to overcome
She makes the shortlist
Only 13 days ago a horse called Blyton Lass
Won a similar Thirsk race with her profile

The 4 shortlisted
Impossible to be clearly split
Based on their profiles
Meaning we have to guess

Going to split stake the race
Leave out the horse up in distance

Selection

£7 Win Bet IMPERIAL ACT 6/1

£2 Win Bet KING OSWALD 2/1

£1 Win Bet RED GUNNER 7/1




Southwell 7.00

4/5 Panko, 11/8 Illustrissime
12/1 Amangiri, 25/1 London Glory
40/1 Sweet Flora, 66/1 Weekly Gossip.

2m Novice Hurdle

PANKO 4/5 in the Racing Post
Finds himself second favourite

ILLUSTRISSIME is now odds on
The favourites have flip-flopped

The Racing Post are right
When they point out about Panko

"The only one of this field with
any meaningful hurdling form"

Novice Hurdles in July
Any Distance
266 of these races

Horses with no National Hunt form
No Chases No Hurdles No Bumpers
But with a previous flat racing career
Won just 12 of these races
They have a 12-292 record

Those with over 14 career starts
In other words over 14 flat races
Have a 0-48 record in these races

ILLUSTRISSIME has this 0-48 profile
He has as many as 23 flat runs
I could not bet him on that profile

Having said that
He does have the better stable
And some have won with his profile
In June and August if not July

So no surprise if he does win

PANKO though with hurdling experience
Gets the verdict in an interesting race
AMANGIRL looks a cheap enough saver

Selection

£9 Win Bet PANKO 7/1
£1 Win Bet AMANGIRL 10/1






Killarney 7.20

9/2 Capture The Action, 5/1 Tropical Stream
11/2 Stowaway Sarah, 7/1 Creadan Belle, Kashika
9/1 Somethinboutangela, 10/1 Blossomfort Trish
10/1 Honey Come Home, 12/1 Realpolitik,
20/1 Battle Away, 25/1 Glenough, Smash The Lamp
33/1 Ellie Burgess, Shesakeeper

Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m 6f

Always interested in these races
Between January and September
There are 52 of these mares races

Experience is a big factor

Unraced horses are 0-51

The following horses fail this
BATTLE AWAY
GLENLOUGH
ELLIE BURGESS

Horses with 1 lifetime race
Have a modest 1-49 record

SMASH THE LAMP has this problem
HONEY COME HOME also fails this

KASHIKA is a 4 year old
Coming from a 2m hurdle she is unsafe
REALPOLITIK is a 4yo
None won with no National Hunt form

CREADAN BELLE comes from a bumper
Similar types his age doing this
All had more recent runs
She has raced just once in months
BLOSSOMFORT IRISH ran 10 days ago
Beaten 29 lengths too far too recently

TROPICAL STREAM is a 5yo
Just 2 runs both over hurdles
Her profile is very ordinary
Doesn't look to be a lot of her

SOMETHINBOUTANGELA is a 6yo
She was a cheap purchase at £800
Beaten 34 lengths last time out
Race may have come too quickly
But it was still a heavy defeat

52 similar races show
Horses with under 4 career starts
Coming from a hurdle race
Beaten over 15 lengths
Have a 1-67 record
Those aged 4-5-6 were 0-44
SOMETHINBOUTANGELA has this profile
TROPICAL STREAM has this profile

STOWAWAY SARAH is a 6yo
Placed in a recent bumper
No hurdles form but respected

CAPTURE THE ACTION
Has as good a profile as any
7 Career starts 2 over hurdles
Gies him an experienced edge
Ran well last time over 2m 4f
This profile gets her shortlisted
Small stable not too expensive
Just puts me off a stronger bet

Selection

Option 1

CAPTURE THE ACTION 7/2

Each Way


Option 2

£8 Win Bet CAPTURE THE ACTION 7/2

£2 Win Bet STOWAWAY SARAH 4/1

Going with Option 1

Not entirely sure
How far I can trust the horse
But this is a very weak race
Must be hard to find 3 to beat her





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Wimbledon Reflections
Division 2 Football





Wimbledon Reflections

Djokovic just scraped home
Both players and final superb
Probably lucky to win it really
Felt quite annoyed with myself
Not betting Simona Halep 10/1
She never came onto my radar

Next Grand Slam is the US Open
No plans to bet Djokovic in that
Must have a favourites chance
But that is a very stressful slam
Will have a smallish interest bet
Might end up with Simona Halep
The hardest of the 4 Grand Slams
So won't be getting too involved

Wimbledon 2020 prices

Djokovic 6/4
Federer 4/1
Nadal 5/1
25/1 bar these 3 players

No value in any of those prices
The outstanding long range value

2020 French Open
Noval Djokovic 4/1
Victor Chandler only

Looks a maximum each way bet
But it far too long into the future
No intention of betting that now


Looking at the weak ahead
There are no Group 1 races

This is a lower profile week
But plenty I do want to cover
Including some National Hunt

Friday

Kilbeggan Midlands National

The race title is exaggerated
Nothing like a National at all
But wanted to look at this one


Saturday

Market Rasen has 2 races
Listed Hurdle and Listed Chase
That we could get involved with

Tomorrow

Among other things
Will cover the weekend cards
Have a look at at least one race



Ante Post Football


Division 2

Part 1


Seems a good day to get this out
Interested in this league 2019/20
Because Salford are taking part

But the analysis below suggests
They will not be winning next year



Ante Post Football

Division 2 2019/20

Part 1

Bradford 7/1 Salford 7/1 Mansfield 8/1
Plymouth 10/1 Northampton 12/1 Scunthorpe 12/1
Forest Green 16/1 Leyton Orient 16/1 Walsall 16/1
Colchester Utd 20/1 Swindon 20/1 Carlisle 25/1
Crewe 25/1 Exeter 25/1 Oldham 25/1 Newport 33/1
Port Vale 33/1 Stevenage 33/1 Cheltenham 40/1
Cambridge Utd 50/1 Crawley 50/1 Grimsby Town 50/1
Macclesfield 80/1 Morecambe 100/1

Seperate these teams
Into 3 different categories


1) Relegated teams from Division 1

2) Promoted teams from National League

3) Division 2 survivors last season


The most likely winner
Will come from the group of teams
Who played in this division last year
The teams in Category 3


1) Relegated teams from Division 1

Bradford 7/1 Scunthorpe 12/1
Walsall 16/1 Plymouth 10/1

These teams had poor seasons then
They have therefore gone backwards

Since 2011/2012
28 Teams
Relegated from Division 1
Moved down to Division 2
Finished in these positions

2nd 3rd 14th 15th 20th 9th 6th
24th 3rd 7th 8th 17th 17th 20th
8th 19th 24th 20th 6th 2nd 2nd
12th 19th 13th 15th 8th 10th 12th

0 of the 28 relegated teams won

Only 5 of these finished 1-2-3-4

These teams are often regressive
They tend not to bounce back up
None have done so in many years


2) Promoted teams from National League

Salford 7/1
Leyton Orient 16/1

Promoted teams are up in class
Coming from Non league football
This is their record in Division 2

6th 22nd 7th 21st 21st 14th
3rd 15th 8th 19th 11th 14th
13th 17th 16th 3rd

None of these won
Only 2 finished 1-2-3-4
Salford may find this too hard
They only finished third last year
When they were going up in class
This is a much tougher league now
Surely the leap will be too much for them
Leyton Orient won the National League
But they only just scraped home in it
They have also lost a brilliant manager



Category 3

Division 2 teams last season
Provided the last 7 winners
I would expect the same again

Some or these look easy to avoid

None of the following teams
In their recent Division 2 careers
Managed to finish in the Top 5

Port Vale 50/1
20th and 20th in last 2 seasons

Morecambe 100/1
18th 22nd 18th 21st 11th since 2014/15

Macclesfield 80/1
Divison 2 debut last year came 22nd

Grimsby Town 50/1
Last 3 seasons 17th 18th 14th

Crawley 50/1
Last 4 seasons 20th 19th 14th 19th

Cambridge Utd 50/1
Last 5 seasons 19th 9th 11th 12th 21st

Cheltenham 40/1
Last 3 seasons 21st 17th 16th

Stevenage 33/1
Last 5 seasons 6th 18th 10th 16th 10th

Newport 33/1
Last 5 seasons 9th 22nd 22nd 11th 7th

Oldham 33/1
Finished 14th last season
Following 4 poor seasons in League 1

Crewe 32/1
Last 3 seasons 17th 15th 12th


Shortlist

EXETER 25/1
CARLISLE 25/1
SWINDON 25/1
COLCHESTER 25/1
FOREST GREEN 20/1
NORTHAMPTON 16/1
MANSFIELD 10/1


EXETER 25/1
5 year Division 2 record
10th 14th 5th 4th 9th

CARLISLE 25/1
5 year Division 2 record
20th 10th 6th 10th 11th

SWINDON 25/1
Dropped to this division 2016/17
Finished 9th and 13th since then

COLCHESTER 25/1
Dropped to this division 2015/16
Last 3 seasons 8th 13th 8th

FOREST GREEN 20/1
Promoted in 2016/17
Last 2 seasons finished 21st 5th

NORTHAMPTON 16/1
Won this league in 2015/16
2016/17 finished 16th in Div 1
2917/18 relegated to Division 2
Last season finished in 15th place

MANSFIELD 10/1
5 year Division 2 record
21st 12th 12th 8th 4th


7 Team shortlist

Too early for a selection
Need to gather more intelligence

Transfers
Strengthened teams
Weakened teams
Budgets etc

Happy that recent history
Points to the winner of this
Coming from a group of teams
Who played in the league last year

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