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Betting The Message

Good Friday
Traditionally a non racing day
Until recently it was introduced

Short message
Only 2 previews today
The cards are rubbish

Never a chance of a bet
Chance to freshen up
For Saturday-Sunday-Monday

No Bets or Mentions
A day to put your feet up




Thursday's Summary

We had two options for a bet
Both of these at good prices
Decided not to go for either
Both of these options beaten
Had a Cheltenham 2nd + 6th
Both ran well but in a big field
No real surprise we got beat
Yamato was in an unusual race
The 2nd favourite did not run
The betting looked so obvious
The one other horse under 20/1
Was his stablemate & favourite
Given this was a claiming race
We can't know the true issues
Maybe they wanted the favourite
Maybe to be claimed as a 10-y-o
No idea if it was run on its merit
That was always the biggest risk



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Bath 2.20

11/8 Zulu Zander, 7/2 Don't Joke, 4/1 Album,
5/1 Willa, 7/1 Queens Road, 25/1 Fact Or Fable
33/1 Contract Kid, Dark Optimist.

2yo Conditions race

ZULA ZANDER has ran twice
Has the most experience
Also has the best numbers

Not really a stable I like much
But hard to get away from him

The market suggests
He faces 3 main dangers

WILLA is unraced and drifting

DON'T JOKE is also unraced
No reason why a debutant can't win
But against a horse with 2 runs
The advantage is with experience

ALBUM has raced once
Interesting he was favourite
But he was well beaten 7 days ago
He might have had excuses
But I don't like horses drawn 1 here
And on his Racing Post Rating
He is 20lbs behind the favourite
ZULA ZANDER who has 2 runs
And was also favourite last time
Should be too strong for these

Selection

ZULA ZANDER 5/4

Win Bet




Bath 4.05

11/4 Queen Of Desire, 4/1 Gold Filigree,
9/2 One Last Night, 9/2 Shumookhi, 8/1 Heartwarming
10/1 Come On Leicester, 16/1 Blame Roberta
20/1 Ocelot, 25/1 Rose Berry,

Lansdown Stakes
5f Listed race
For fillies and mares
11 Past renewals of this

QUEEN OF DESIRE is favourite
I want to try and get her beaten
Based on a few negative factors

QUEEN OF DESIRE is drawn 1
That might not be the best draw
No horse won this race drawn 1

If you look at her sire Dubawi
His 5f runners aged 4 or more
Both In Listed and Group races
Only show a modest 1-51 record

Don't feel persuaded by that
But if you look at her 5f numbers
They are not actually that strong
Neither is her profile as a 4yo

Horses aged 4 or more
Under 9 career starts
Have a 0-14 record in this race

She is quite a small type too
Can't be sure she will improve
Do not see enough positives
To risk drawn in the lowest stall
QUEEN OF DESIRE is rejected

ROSE BERRY is very exposed
Has just ran very well over 6f
But this is a much harder race

Horses that come from 6f races
Running this season are 0-25
ROSE BERRY fails this 0-25 stat

His numbers show limitations
Don't see a good case for her
Or any of the other outsiders

COME ON LEICESTER is a 3yo
Has a very unusual profile
She drops from 7f to 5f
Having only a 3 day absence
When beaten in the Nell Gwyn
The profile is just too unsafe

ONE LAST NIGHT is a 4yo
Last seen in France 143 days ago
Some concerns about her chance

Horses aged 4 or more
Under 9 career starts
Have a 0-14 record in this race
ONE LAST NIGHT only has 7 runs
She has never before ran over 5f
She has never raced in England before
Too many things never done before


Shortlist

GOLD FILIGREE is a 4yo
She has raced once this season
When winning a Class 2 Handicap

You can argue it was on the sand
As are all of her best numbers
Thats true but her latest start
Was a Racing Post Rating of 101
Thats a lot higher than most of these


The past 3yo winners
Were all very similar types

Were all seasonal debutants
And all had 4-5-6 career runs

HEARTWARMING has this profile
Seems the right type of 3yo in this
And his trainer has won it 3 times

One angle she does fail in this
Horses aged 3
First time out
Coming from a 6f race
Have a 0-21 record in this race
HEARTWARMING the 22nd to try
None have yet won this listed race

SHUMOOKHI is a 3yo with 10 runs
That's not in line with past winners
But her numbers are much higher
Achieved more than Heartwarming
I'd still see both horses positives


Selection

£6.50 Win HEARTWARMING 6/1

£2.50 Win SHUMOOKHI 3/1

£1.00 Win GOLD FILIGREE 9/1





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Bank Holiday Monday

Irish Grand National

Ante Post Statistics below

Later on this morning
The declarations are out
Should get the final field later



Catching up on some results

Napoli were beaten last night
Went out in a very limp fashion
The Europa League bet is lost


Tennis

Monte Carlo Masters

Rafa Nadal is looking better
Moves into the quarter finals
With Dominic Thiem now out
Nadal is trading around 2/5





National League

3 Games to go

Today April 19th
Monday April 22nd
Saturday April 27th


Todays Fixtures

3/1 Bromley v Solihull 4/5
4/5 Orient v Harrogate 3/1
4/1 Boreham v Salford 4/5


The Bet of the Year
Salford 5/1
Each Way 1/4 odds 1-2-3

Advised June 25th 2018
Almost 10 months of this bet
We are now coming to a close

SALFORD winning today
Away from home at Boreham
Guarantee us at least 4th place

With other results in our favour
We could guaranteed 3rd today
Very close now to a No lose bet

In terms of winning the league
The market suggests a 25% chance
Leyton Orient are odds on
They have an easy last game

My theory is
Orient need 4 points
From their next 2 games

Today - home to Harrogate
Monday - away at Solihull

If they win Both
Orient will look uncatchable

If they get 4pts in 2 games
They should win on goal difference

If they get 3 points or less
Then I'd expect Salford to win

We need them to lose
One of these two matches

Monday is out biggest chance
Sollihill in 3rd play them at home

I'd say 3/1 Salford is about right
But I want to make sure we place
So the bet of the year can not lose


With the Racing so bad today

You could tune into BT Sport 2.45pm

Live at 3pm

Orient are playing Harrogate

See if the wheels come off our bet



Ante Post Statistics

Monday April 22nd

Irish Grand National

8/1 Any Second Now 8/1 Burrows Saint 9/1 Jury Duty
9/1 Pairofbrowneyes 9/1Tout Est Permis 10/1 Discorama
10/1 Total Recall 14/1 Gun Digger 14/1 Shady Operator
14/1 Snugsborough Benny 14/1 Acapella Bourgeois
20/1 Auvergnat 20/1 Bellow Mome 20/1 Cest Jersey
20/1 De Name Escapes Me 20/1 Dounikos 20/1 Fitzhenry
20/1 Folsom Blue 20/1 General Principle 20/1 Out Sam
20/1 Measureofmydreams 20/1 Spider Web 20/1 Cloth Cap
20/1 Scoir Mear 20/1 Shattered Love 25/1 Forever Gold
25/1 Goose Man 25/1 Joe Farrell 25/1 Isleofhopendreams
25/1 Monbeg Notorious 25/1 Moyhenna 25/1 Oscar Knight
25/1 Ucello Conti 25/1 Whisperinthebreeze 25/1 Wishmoor
25/1 Woods Well 25/1 A Toi Phil , Augustin 33/1 Blow By Blow
33/1 Call It Magic 33/1 Fennos Storm 33/1 Just A Sting
33/1 Kilkishen 33/1 Killer Miller 33/1 Kimberlite Candy
33/1 Minella Rocco 33/1 Pylonthepressure 33/1 Arkwrisht
33/1 Roaring Bull 33/1 Rogue Angel 33/1 Ah Littleluck
33.1 Touch Kick 40/1 Bel Ami De Sivola 40/1 Mrs Lovett
40/1 Beyond The Law 40/1 Raz De Maree 40/1 Timeforwest
40/1 Valseur Lido 40/1 Agent Boru 50/1 Getaway Kid
50/1 Monatomic 50/1 Stoneford 50/1 Stowaway Forever

Past winners
Had the following Chase runs
13 3 25 6 4 9 9 9 10 12 12 8 11 6 12 13 12 11

17 of the last 18 winners
And most of the runner ups
Had Under 14 Chase starts

Past winners
Had the following runs since August
5 3 5 6 4 7 3 5 2 4 3 8 5

19 of the last 20 winners
Had at least 3 runs that season

Horses aged 11
Have not won this race since 1997

Horses with 11st 5lbs or more
Have a poor record in this race
None have won now since 1995

The last 10 winners
Were rated 153 or lower

Horses aged 8
With 11st 4lbs or more
Have not won this since 1946

Horses aged 6
Have won just 1 renewal since 1985
That winner (2011) had 9st 13lbs

Horses aged 7
Have won 8 renewals since 1994
They won with these Chase runs
3 6 4 12 8 11 4 12
Horses aged 7 are best
With under 13 Chase runs
The more they have above that
The less appealing they would be

Stay with horses aged 7-8-9-10
They won 24 of the last 26 renewals

Recent winners absences
24 64 28 27 35 18 50 37 39 33 days
Longest absent winner was 88 days

Horses from chases over 2m 4f or shorter
Have a 0-48 record since 2009

Stay with horses
With under 13 previous hurdle runs
The more above that the worse they score

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