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Today's Message

Exeter has been abandoned
We only have two meetings
Really lacking enough choice

Troytown Chase
Been a target race all week
Made a good attempt at this
But short of account strength


Uttoxeter 1.40
Navan 2.30
Navan 3.00

Feels a bit laboured today
Working slower than usual
Not found this easy to finish
Worrying signs of staleness
Why I have not staked a bet


Today's Best Bet

Navan 2.30

DISCORAMA 7/1

Each Way


Today is 24 messages in 25 days
Will be having a day off next week
Not sure when that will be just yet
But it will be in the next 3 days

Next Message when it comes
May include a big target race

This is not the Ladbrokes Trophy
A race this week I want to sort out
Hopefully updated in next message


Saturdays Summary

Starting with the main account bet
ACEY MILAN just ran his heart out
Stakes back placing 2nd each way
Worried me he had gone too fast
Still feel he did but he coped well
Even looked like he was winning
Matched long odds on in running
He was basically mugged very late
But he put up a very gallant effort
Can not fault him at all or complain
BALLYOPTIC in contrast flopped
The sensible explanation must be
Just got the race completely wrong
Results went P W L W P P P L L W
Good start dipping later in the day
Never got in any big trouble though
Probably fair to call it a score draw


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Uttoxeter 1.40

5/2 Designer Destiny, 11/4 Molly Ollys Wishes
9/2 Flow Away, 11/2 Precious Eleanor, 7/1 Balladame
12/1 At First Glance, Destinys Choice, 14/1 Saint Dalina
16/1 Shocona's Joy, 20/1 Millie Of Mayo, 50/1 Havacuppa
50/1 Milesha, 66/1 Jimmy's Sister, The City Cobbler.

Mares Novice Hurdle

Looks to be 4 main runners
Two have something in common

DESIGNER DESTINY started 50/1 last time
PRECIOUS ELEANOR started 50/1 last time

June to December
Mares Novice Hurdles
2m 4f or shorter
Horses with 1 hurdle run
Having 2 or more career starts
Starting 50/1 or bigger
Have a 0-174 record in them

Strange angle
Not sure if that is relevant
But hardly a sign of confidence
In either horse on their debuts

Last time winners
Always score well in these races

In similar mares novices
Run during November
Horses aged 5
Winning a hurdle race last time
Have a 6-10 record in them

FLOW AWAY has this profile
Seems a much safer option
To bet a last time hurdle winner
Than a once raced hurdler
Who could only start 50/1 in one

MOLLY OLLYS WISHES is a positive
She has 2 hurdle runs
On this ground it could be a factor
Comes from a far better stable as well
She would be a serious danger

Selection

FLOW AWAY 6/1

Each Way



Navan 2.30

6/1 Portmore Lough, 7/1 Discorama, 10/1 Chris's Dream
10/1 Shady Operator, 10/1 Tower Bridge, 12/1 Ravenhill
14/1 Fitzhenry, Solomn Grundy, 16/1 Redhotfillypeppers
16/1 Winter Escape, Young Paddymc, 18/1 Mr Diablo
20/1 Burgas, 20/1 De Name Escapes Me, 20/1Space Cadet
20/1 The Big Lense, 25/1 Oscar Knight, 25/1 Roaring Bull,
33/1 Woods Well, 33/1 Gun Digger, 33/1Noble Endeavor
33/1 Templemore Dream, Timiyan.

Troytown Chase

Graded race over 3 miles

Past winners of this race
Had the following Chase runs
9 9 12 13 14 10 2 7 10 6 8 8 14 9 8

The last 15 winners since 2003
All had under 15 Chase starts

The following horses
Having over 14 Chase runs
May well be too exposed now

OSCAR KNIGHT 23 Chase runs too many
MR DIABLO is rejected with 17 chase runs
WOODS WELL fails the same angle
SPACE CADET is too exposed
TIMIYAN fails the same statistic

NOBLE ENDEAVOUR too old
Given he pulled up last time out
GUN DIGGER did the same thing
TEMPLEMORE DREAM offers nothing

Horses aged 8
Have struggled in this race
They are 0-54 since 2008
Less improvement than 7yo's
Not as strong as the 9 year olds
BURGAS is an 8yo debutant
Happy to oppose his kind in this

Younger horses
Have not won without recent runs
Horses aged under 9 years old
Absent more than 4 weeks
Return a 0-50 record in this race
The following horses fail this

CHRIS'S DREAM
THE BIG LENSE
REDHOTFILLYPEPPERS

THE BIG LENSE is on a career high mark

CHRIS'S DREAM has 5 Chase runs
REDHOTFILLYPEPPERS has 3 Chase runs

Past winners had the following
9 9 12 13 14 10 2 7 10 6 8 8 14 9 8
14 of the last 15 winners
Had more experience than both
REDHOTFILLYPEPPERS will do well to win
As a mare first time out with 3 chase runs

WINTER ESCAPE is an 8yo
No 8yo has won this in years
Doubt he will coming up a mile

Horses with over 21 career starts
Have a poor 1-65 record in this race
Almost always goes to lighter raced
Several rejected already fail this
DE NAME ESCAPES ME also fails this
Has not jumped a fence in months
Recent chase performances patchy
YOUNG PADDYMC is a 7 year old
Pulled up on his only start this year
Not a safe enough profile
ROARING BULL is a 6 year old
Needed a better last race fom his age

PORTMORE LOUGH is an 8yo
Looks one of the better his age
But none have won in a long time
He has just 5 Chase starts as well
When 14 of the last 15 winners had more
Gets credit improving on a hat trick
But he is up 10lbs in a better class race

Horses with over 10 hurdle runs
Have a poor 1-43 record in this race
SOLOMN GRUNDY fails this with 12 runs
First time out still a maiden over fences
But a very well handicapped horse
And has ran his best every figure here

RAVENHILL has 5 chase runs
Would have been happier with more
Career best run last time out
Just not keen on the 74 day absences
Handicp Chases in November
Class 2 and higher
Any distance
Show horses aged 9 or more
Absent 56-125 days are 0-36

FITZHENRY is a 7yo
His 1st run this year over hurdles
No strong objections to his chance

SHADY OPERATOR is a 6yo
Similar types who won these races
With 1 run that season
Tended to come from Graded races
Tended to run better last time
Didn't feel he was a perfect match

Horse sired by Court Cave
Running over 3m +
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a very modest 1-69 record
SHADY OPERATOR has this sire
THE BIG LENSE has this sire

TOWER BRIDGE is a 6yo
He was 2nd at the 2018 Cheltenham's festival
But unplaced last time in a Beginners Chase
He has to step up from 2m 3f to 3 miles
That is not a safe profile

October November December
Handicap Chases at 3m +
Run in Class 2 or higher
Horses aged 6
Having 1 run that season
Beaten last time out
Coming from 2m 6f or shorter
Similar 6 year olds
Coming from 2m 4f or less
Beaten last time out
Have a 0-24 record in these races
TOWER BRIDGE shares this profile
SHADY OPERATOR shares this profile

DISCORAMA is a 6yo
Smart horse 2nd at Cheltenhams festival
His main problem will be his weight
But he does have a 5lbs claimer

Recent winners
Seem to be getting classier
Higher official ratings are winning
He is the class horse in this race
His Numbers clearly suggest
He can win this off a mark of 149
Assuming some reasonable luck
With 4 places available my choice

Selection

DISCORAMA 7/1

Each Way



Navan 3.00

6/1 Cherif De L'Isle, 6/1 Fit To Be Tied, 6/1 Theatre World
7/1 Ellipsism, 7/1 From Eden, 8/1 Mister Fogpatches
10/1 Russian Bill, Thereisnodoubt, 12/1 Goodnightngodbless
14/1 Notice To Close, 20/1 Oh'herewego, Velocity Boy
25/1 Caerleon Kate, Miles To Memphis, Mindsmadeup
25/1 Thegoaheadman, Union Gap, 33/1 Stucker Hill.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 6f

Looked at the history of this race

Horses with 1 run that season
Do not score well in this race

CHERIF DE L'ISLE is a 5yo
He's had just 1 run since 2017
Top class stable and lightly raced
So a long way from a negative here

But opposing him each way

ELLIPSISM is rejected aged 4

Most past winners ran within a month

I'd want 2 or more recent runs
Horses coming from 2m 4f or more
Ideally a horse under 10 years old

Applied this and other angles
Shortlisted the following horses

FROM EDEN
THEATRE WORLD
MINDSMADEUP
MISTER FOGPATCHES

FROM EDEN has been chasing
We have had winners from chasers
But harder to rely on one of those
MINDSMADEUP is also from fences

Selection

£2.50 Each Way THEATRE WORLD 10/1

£2.50 Each Way MISTER FOGPATCHES 12/1



FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Next Week

Hennessy Gold Cup week

Saturdays main race
Sadly now this is called
Ladbrokes Trophy Chase

Confirmation stage on Tuesday
Wiil cover it middle of next week


Beautiful Bet 3

Premier League
Rolling Challenge

Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool
Manchester City 2-1 Chelsea

Good results this weekend
Liverpool won with a late goal
Always seem to find answers

Next Week
Bet 1 stake now worth £108.62
Bet 2 stake now worth £52.93

Getting to the point now
Where some profit can be taken
Getting us in front for the 1st time

Current Balance
Bet 1 - £60.00
Bet 2 - £40.00


Davis Cup Final

Spain v Canada

It has been a very draining week
All my nerves were shot on day 1
Spain have now reached the final

Gave this bet on March 22nd
Seems a very long time ago now
Not everybody will have joined in
Fewer still will have watched this

Those that have got involved
Will have witnessed just as me
Nadal pick up and carry his side
Weakened by both injury and grief
Single handily lift them to a final
Playing both singles and doubles
Illustrating Tennis from the Gods
In front of fans who think he is one

Nadal's performances this week
And I know this will sound so trite
Greatest in any sport I have seen
At least that I currently remember
He has genuinely been that good
I felt Dkokovic was the best player
I'm wrong it is this freak of nature

Spain lost their number 2 player
Bautista Agut the World number 9
Because his father died this week

Pablo Carreno Busta replaced him
Then he got himself injured as well
Spain lost their 2nd and 3rd options

On the Spanish bench yesterday
Significant Bautista Agut was there
Some are saying there is a chance
He will comeback and play the final
Having left as his father had died

Spain winning feels part of a script
But if Bautista Agut does not return
We will lose one of the single games
Canada have a stronger young side
They are serious dangers tonight

I will be hedging

Making sure I'm happy either way
Going to bet Canada at a big 11/4

I've watched every game
The betting just feels wrong

Canada beat Russia in the doubles
That Russian pair are seriously good
I would fancy Russia to beat Spain
So I must fancy CANADA to beat them

Nadal is also fatigued
The tournament has taken lots out of him
Even though he won both games yesterday
The Magic is still there on the big points
But his general level has dipped in my view
Can not keep going to the well

I would be betting

8/15 Spain 7/4 Canada

Not confident Spain are bankers tonight
So feel that generous 11/4 has to be taken
If like me you are on Spain ante post at 7/2

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