11 Previews
1 Highlighted Bet




Highlighted Bet

Leopardstown 1.45

£4.25 Each Way DOLLYS DESTINATION 6/1-13/2

£1.50 Win Bet DE MAZZARO 6/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5





Today's Message

1st message in what seems ages
With a racing and hospital break

Manic day to return to messages
This one's covering 11 previews
One of the least predictable days
Probably going to be very rusty
Unlikely to be a high strike rate

We need Boxing day behind us
Sort out Friday's Welsh National
Then return to our normal rhythm

Wetherby 11.55
Leopardstown 12.40
Kempton 12.50
Kempton 1.20
Leopardstown 1.45
Kempton 1.50
Leopardstown 2.20
Wetherby 2.10
Kempton 2.30
Kempton 3.05
Kempton 3.40


Plenty of horses today
That appeal each way around 3/1
This may be one of the best ones

Leopardstown 12.40

ENTOUCAS 3/1-100/30

Each Way

Don't see enough though
To stake him as a bet today


Wetherby 1.00

THEFLICKERINGLIGHT 5/2

Each Way

One of my best options today
From a personal point of view
I would like an each way double
With Elegant Escape tomorrow
But the Welsh National Market
Will be suspended very shortly
And unless this horse wins today
It compromises tomorrow's plans

Another annoying factor

9/4 with some firms
5/2 with other firms

I'd want 5/2 with 4 places
Not enough firms offer this


Rather than get bogged down
With bets prices hard to obtain
Going with a highlighted bet
At a bigger price over in Ireland


Leopardstown 1.45

£4.25 Each Way DOLLYS DESTINATION 6/1-13/2

£1.50 Win Bet DE MAZZARO 6/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5

We get 5 places
Massive field is intimidating
But some strong angles in the race





PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Wetherby 11.55

15/8 Rayna's World, 7/2 Clondaw Caitlin, 5/1 Elk Bridge
7/1 Miss Flying Fox, 10/1 Hawthorn Cottage, La Hulpe
12/1 Wheesht, 14/1 Aphaea, 16/1 Highland Gold, Silk Or Satin
50/1 Miladygrace, 100/1 Baby Jane, 100/1 Heatherlea
100/1 Whispering Waters.

Mares Novice Hurdle (2m 3f)

Unlikely to be anything too smart
Just running a few little tests

Similar races in December
Run over any and every distance
Show horses aged 4
1 hurdle run
Over 6 career runs are 0-19
RAYNA'S WORLD has this profile

December
Mares Novice Hurdle
Run over 2m 2f and more
Horses aged 4
From non graded bumpers
Have a 0-69 record over 2m 2f +
MISS FLYING FOX fails this

CLONDAW CAITLAN fails this
But as she won last time out
I would upgrade her profile
The 5 last time winners like her
Had a 0-5 record finishing 2 2 2 3 5

ELK BRIDGE has a good profile
She seems weak in the market
Horses aged 5
2 hurdle runs
under 7 career runs
Beaten last time
Running 5-9 weeks ago
Coming from 2m 4f races
No flat form
Have an encouraging 3-7 record
ELK BRIDGE shares this profile
She is drifting a little
Decided to split stake this race

Selection

£7 Win Bet ELK BRIDGE 6/1

£3 Win Bet CLONDAW CAITLIN 5/2





Leopardstown 12.40

9/4 Concertista, 7/2 Mt Leinster, 9/2 Entoucas, 7/1 Buddy Rich
8/1 The Very Man, 12/1 Eagle Moon, Exit Poll, 14/1 Mystery Stowaway
16/1 Glens Finale, 25/1 Exultation, Le Musigny, 25/1 Tonkinese
40/1 Botani, Doyen Dancer, 50/1 Shanroe, 66/1 Letitbeso
100/1 Smiths Girl, 150/1 Inneen Oscar, Stadius.

2m Maiden Hurdle

CONCERTISTA taking on males
Looks to have a lot to prove here
BUDDY RICH would not be first choice
Starting 40/1 for his hurdles debut
EXIT POLL needs improvement

Selection

ENTOUCAS 3/1-100/30

Each Way





Kempton 12.50

7/4 Vegas Blue, 4/1 Ecco, Getaway Fred, 6/1 Fred
10/1 Red Force One, South Seas, 14/1 Touchthesoul
100/1 Ballycloven Beat.

2m Novice Hurdle
Always won by a smart horse

VEGAS BLUE is a 4yo filly
Only Bumper form to date
Impeccable connections help
You can assume she is very good
But a filly with no hurdling experience

Previous 4yo winners of this race
Had 1 1 2 2 2 2 7 5 2 hurdle runs
None like her won on debut (0-20)
Don't see her as a negative at all
On bad ground without experience
Taking on decent male horses
Feel we should look elsewhere

GETAWAY FRED has 2 lifetime runs
Aside from the 2008 winner of this
Every previous winner had more
Most winners had 3-4-5-6-7 races
Not for me with 2 runs in this ground
FRED obviously has lots of ability
But clearly looks the second string
RED FORCE ONE the same problem
Looks Paul Nicholls's number two
All 18 from handicaps like him failed
ECCO disappointed last time
But was the youngest horse that day
May not have liked Cheltenham
Has the best hurdle form in the race
Worrying his trainer may pull him out

Shortlist

VEGAS BLUE
FRED

VEGAS BLUE has plenty to prove
Could not justify her as the selection
But she could play a saver role in this
As an alternative to an each way bet
FRED the second string on paper
I would not see it as simple as that
I'd prefer him to the female stablemate
And we get both Hendersons onside

Selection

£6 Win Bet FRED 5/1

£4 Win Bet VEGAS BLUE 7/4






Wetherby 1.00

3/1 Just Call Me Al, 7/2 Theflickeringlight, 5/1 Ventura Dragon
7/1 Norwegian Woods, 8/1 Raddle And Hum, 11/1 Wor Verge
12/1 Nye Bevan, 14/1 All Hail Caesar, State Vision, 16/1 Hangard
25/1 Le Gavroche, 25/1 On We Go, 25/1Sometimes A Fox
40/1 George Hastings, 50/1 Neileta.

Novice Handicap Hurdle

Some firms offer 4 places
Some of them 3 and some 5

Probably have a race
With 4 or 5 more likely winners

JUST CALL ME ALL won recently
THEFLICKERINGLIGHT won recently

Both turn up with 5 and 9 day breaks
Be quite happy betting either of both

VENTURA DRAGON is younger
Do not see a big profile problem
NORWEGIAN WOOD also in form

Feel we have to go each way
On one of the fittest horses

December
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class

Horses aged 5
Winning last time
Under 8 career starts
Running within 8 days
Have a superb 11-12 record
THEFLICKERINGLIGHT has this profile

12 Tried to win
11 managed it
The last was 2017 (Golan Fortune)

That suggests similar horses
Are far more likely to thrive than regress
So with 4 places it seems the right play

Selection

THEFLICKERINGLIGHT 5/2

Each Way




Kempton 1.20

4/1 Roll Again, Simply The Betts, 6/1 Doctor Dex
8/1 Hold The Note, 8/1 Commanche Red, 10/1 Fidux
10/1 Solomon Grey, 14/1 Muratello, On The Slopes
20/1 Envoye Special, Mr McGo, 33/1 Mile House.

Novice Handicap Chase 2m 4f

Tough little race
Some of the clearer angles

No previous winners of this
Came from Listed or Graded races
Class droppers are best avoided
Commanche Red fails this
Solomon Grey also fails this

Horses aged 5 can and do win
Horses aged 6 and 7 are better
Anything older could be unsafe
I'd avoid horses aged 8 or more
FIDUX has 37 career starts now
I would want 15 or lower in this
Do not want an exposed horse
Horses with over 5 chase runs
Very rarely win this Handicap
HOLD THE NOTE is a 5 year old
With only 1 previous chase run
Past 5yo winners had 4 3 3 runs

Shortlist

SIMPLY THE BETTS
DOCTOR DEX
ROLL AGAIN

All 3 have 2 chase runs

ROLL AGAIN is only a 5yo
But winning just 8 days ago
He may be the momentum horse
His profile down from 3 miles
With just 8 days off is unorthodox
Very few horses have similar profiles
But backed each way unless falling
He should have enough for a place

Selection

ROLL AGAIN 3/1

Each Way




Leopardstown 1.45

9/1 Ena Baie, 10/1 Father Ailbe, 10/1 Mrs Milner
10/1 Prosecution, Rightplacerightime, 12/1 De Mazzaro
12/1 Dollys Destination, Exceeded Brief, Fauguernon,
14/1 Fenta Des Obeaux, The Mouse Doctor, 16/1 Email Rose
16/1 Gambling Mistress, 16/1 Lucky Phil, 20/1 Andalusa,
20/1 Jon Ess, 20/1 Song Of Namibia, 25/1 Accidental Rebel
25/1 Colour Me In, Dessie's Diamond, Nibiru, Rare Conor,
33/1 Riverdene, Stormy Tale, Volatile Lady, 33/1 Storm Flight.

Novice Handicap Hurdle

Big field
Big angles

The 10 past winners
Were all aged 5 or 6 years old

Horses aged 4
Have a 0-37 record in this race
Opposing the 9 horses aged 4
FENTA DES OBEAUX one a filly
Having raced once this season
FATHER AILBE a 4yo with 11st 5lbs
MRS MILER Is also a 4 year old filly
She comes from a maiden hurdle

Horses from maiden or novice hurdles
Have a miserable 0-37 record in this
EXCEEDED BRIEF fails this statistic

All past winners of this race
Had at least 5 career starts
Had at least 5 hurdle races before
EXCEEDED BRIEF only has 4 runs

PROSECUTION comes from a maiden
He did win it and has prior handicap form
There are oine or two safer profiles
DESSIES DIAMOND is short on experience
Has a nasty 311 day absence to overcome
ENA BAIE is a mare absent 148 days
The last 10 winners ran within 70 days

FAUGUERNON could go well
Don't see him negative or positive
THE MOUSE DOCTOR ran 8 days ago
That was on the flat which puts me off
DOLLYS DESTINATION looks an option
Female horses are 0-23 in this race
But few were fancied several went close
DE MAZZARO fell at Cheltenham last time
Also needs to make the staking plan

High weights are best
Horses with 10st 9lbs or less
Have a 0-61 record in 10 renewals
Siding with two of the higher weights

Selection

£4.25 Each Way DOLLYS DESTINATION 7/1

£1.50 Win Bet DE MAZZARO 6/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5





Kempton 1.55

9/4 Slate House, 3/1 Black Op, 7/2 Danny Whizzbang
4/1 Master Tommytucker, 14/1 Jarveys Plate, 25/1 Redzor
33/1 The Mighty Don.

Kauto Star Novice Chase (3m)

Not a race we can sort well
One good jump here
One bad jump there

Every winner since 1999
Had at least 7 lifetime runs

DANNY WHIZZBANG has just 3 runs
MASTER TOMMYTUCKER 4 runs
Neither matchable to past winners
Maybe an inexperienced winner is due
But every winner since the 1990's
Had at last 7 runs and this pair do not

BLACK OP has to prove his stamina
His 3m runs so fare don't prove this
BLACK OP is sired by Sandmason
His runners over 3m or more are 1-31
None of the sires runners in Class 4 +
Have managed to win beyond 2m 4f

SLATE HORSE has a good profile
He is the most experienced chaser
Horses with over 5 chase runs
Having under 18 lifetime starts
Running within the last 6 weeks
Finishing 1-2-3 last time out
Have a W W 3 W 4 record in this

Selection

SLATE HORSE 3/1-100/30

Win Bet





Wetherby 2.10

11/4 Top Ville Ben, 4/1 Bennys King, 6/1 Jonniesofa
6/1 Lake View Lad, 7/1 Rocco, 9/1 Didero Vallis
10/1 Guitar Pete, 12/1 Wakanda, 33/1 I Just Know
100/1 Lachlan Bridge.

Rowland Meyrick Chase

The last 9 renewals of this race
Went to horses with this profile

Aged 7-8-9-10
Under 14 Chase runs
Absent more than 2 weeks
Horses with this profile

TOP VILLE BEN
BENNYS KING
JONNIESOFA

ROCCO is only a 6yo
We have had 6yo winners in the past
None though came from a Novice race
LAKE VIEW LAD misses the shortlist
Only just but he is not an ideal match
He is also the only horse in the race
Who has just the 1 run this season
WAKANDA has a long absence

Staying with the 3 horses
With the best profile in the race

TOP VILLE BEN is not a big horse
May find 11st 11lbs hard to overcome
Go back 20 years in this race
Horses with 11st 11lbs + are 0-10
BENNYS KING each way around 4/1
Seems a more pragmatic selection

Selection

BENNYS KING 7/2-4/1

Each Way




Leopardstown 2.20

11/10 Laurina, 6/4 Fakir D'oudairies
6/1 Notebook, 14/1 Royal Rendezvous
20/1 Djingle.

Grade 1 Novice Chase

Small quality field

FAKIR D'OOUDAIRIES is a 4yo
Quite a young 4 year old as well
Does not turn 5 for several months
LAURINA just looks more substantial
I would prefer the older horses
LAURINA does have to drop 3 furlongs
And she is a sort price as well
NOTEBOOK is right there on the numbers
So the plan is to split stake the race
With the horses a couple of years older

Selection

£5 Win Bet NOTEBOOK 8/1

£5 Win Bet LAURINA 11/10





Kempton 2.30

2/1 Fusil Raffles, 4/1 Epatante, 5/1 Verdana Blue
7/1 Getaway Trump, 10/1 Ch'tibello, Silver Streak
14/1 Ballyandy, 16/1 Elixir De Nutz, 20/1 Quick Grabim
66/1 Big Blue.

Christmas Hurdle

Not your typical renewal this year
No returning Champion Hurdler
More unproven up and coming types
So don't see any strong statistics

Nicky Henderson complicates things
By training the 1st 2nd 3rd favourites

There are some open questions
FUSIL RAFFLES is only 4 years old
Horses aged 4 are 0-18 since 1999
Which is hardly an encouraging sign
But again no champion hurdler here
So more chance of a 4yo winner

VERDANA BLUE a high class mare
Has a long absence to overcome
And she is better on faster ground
She is one of 3 Henderson runners

Another issue in the race
CH'TIBELLO has 1 run this year
ELIXIR DE NUTZ has 1 run this year
Both have a short 12 day return
Could this pair be on the bounce ?
The 2007 winner Straw Bear did it
But only he did and was a different age

GETAWAY TRUMP is unsafe
Going from a Chase to a Grade 1 hurdle
Go back to 1998
No Male horse of any age
Has won any Grade 1 hurdle
Coming from a chase last time out

Shortlist

EPATANTE 5/1
BALLYANDY 20/1
SILVER STREAK 12/1

EPATANTE is very sexy
But only has 7 career starts
Biggest price of Hendersons 3
You have to go back a long time
For a 5yo winner with 1 run this year

BALLYANDY can criticised
SILVER STREAK also has flaws
Bit so do all of these horses
This is not a vintage renewal

We could bet both each way
Only 1 would need to be placed
BALLYANDY has some momentum
Comes here fit and running well
SILVER STREAK from the best trial
There are much sexier options here
But I like the frame of this bet
Not asking much for just 1 to frame

Selection

£3.00 Each Way SILVER STREAK 9/1-10/1

£2.00 Each Way BALLYANDY 16/1-20/1




Kempton 3.05

6/4 Cyrname, 7/4 Lostintranslation
5/1 Clan Des Obeaux, 10/1 Footpad
16/1 Thistlecrack, 50/1 Aso.

King George

Small but high class field this year
Far too many known unknowns
Tactics and pace issues included
Ante Post strategy was a split stake
Clan Des Obeaux as the place bet
But no markets offered us that bet
Small low stakes interest bet here
The main contenders all 7 year olds
THISTLECRACK I can resist aged 11
FOOTPAD is very difficult to predict
He could be worth a £1 saver bet
CYRNAME looks Nicholls number 1
And if that proves to be accurate
There are not many we should fear
LOSTINTRANSLATION a big threat
Feel we can only make assumptions

Selection

Small Stakes

£9 Win Bet CYRNAME 6/4

£1 Win Bet FOOTPAD 11/1




Kempton 3.40

4/1 Mr Pumblechook, 9/2 Laskadine, 8/1 Star Of Lanka
9/1 Colonel Custard, Honest Vic, 11/1 Rhythm Is A Dancer
12/1 Elysees, 14/1 Oscarsman, Our Power, Theo's Charm
16/1 Dell Oro, Eragon De Chanay, 20/1 Canyon City
20/1 Captain Tommy, Gortroe Joe, 33/1 Jenkins.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

Just a few observations
These are the weak areas

Horses with over 14 career runs
Have a 0-70 record in this race
The following horses all fail this

8/1 Elysees
10/1 Honest Vic
14/1 Theo's Charm
16/1 Canyon City
20/1 Gortroe Joe
20/1 Dell Oro
20/1 Eragon De Chanay
25/1 Jenkins

Horses with 9 + hurdle runs
Have a 0-52 record in this race

Horses aged 7 or more are 1-44
All past winners were geldings
None won down from 3m races
No winners came from Listed/Graded races
Only one came from a Class 2 as well (1-44)

Obviously this mainly points
To younger unexposed types being best

LASKADINE can be described as such
But a 4yo filly absent 313 days a concern
ELYSEES is another 4yo with an absence
None his age won absent over 6 weeks

STAR OF LANKA has to prove stamina
With a pedigree as speedy as his
Over hurdles over 21f on soft ground

The best fits using the above angles

OSCARMAN 14/1-16/1
COLONEL CUSTARD 8/1-9/1
MR PUMBLECHOOK 7/2

Selection

£4.00 Each Way COLONEL CUSTARD 8/1-9/1

£2.00 Win Bet MR PUMBLECHOOK 7/2






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Boxing Day

Time for a quick update


Hospital Stay

Back now with the all clear
Got some minor treatment next year
But that is only as a day patient
Which will not affect our schedule

Sincere thanks for the well wishes
Everybody who sent nice messages
Won't have time to reply individually
But touched me and I was grateful



Beautiful Bet 4

PDC Darts - Micheal Van Gerwin 5/4
AusTennis - Novak Djokovic 13/8

Each Way Double
Future Tennis Place Lay


Everything still on schedule here

Micheal Van Gerwin

20 Players are left
Darts resumes tomorrow

Micheal Van Gerwin plays 9.45pm
He is 1/10 against Steven Bunting
Should win and make the Quarters



Beautiful Bet 3

Update

Both sides in action
Today and tomorrow

Dec 26th - Leicester v Liverpool

Dec 27th - Wolves v Manchester City


Bet 1

£34.00 on Liverpool at 2.14
If Liverpool win the game
Place the complete returns
On Man City to win at 1.43

If Liverpool fail to win this
Start with a new £20 stake
On Man City to win at 1.43


Bet 2

£23.32 Liverpool (Draw No Bet) 1.59
If Liverpool Win or Draw
Place the complete returns
On Man City (Draw No Bet) 1.15

If Liverpool lose this game
Start with a new £20 stake
On Man City (Draw No Bet) 1.15





Welsh Grand National

Tomorrow

Elegant Escape 7/2 Now McGinty 5/1 Truckers Lodge 13/2
Potters Corner 8/1 West Approach 9/1 Yala Enki 9/1
Steely Addition 10/1 Prime Venture 16/1 Big River 20/1
Captain Chaos 20/1 Daklondike 20/1 Pobbles Bay 20/1
The Two Amigos 20/1 Crievehill 25/1 Arthur's Gift 33/1
Bennys King 33/1 Midnight Tune 33/1 Pop Rockstar 33/1
Virginia Chick 33/1 Rathlin Rose 40/1 Space Cadet 40/1
Field Exhibition 50/1 Joueur Bresilien 50/1
Kings Monarch 66/1 Looks Like Power 80/1

25 Horses in the race
Declarations in a few minutes

ELEGANT ESCAPE 7/2 favourite

Made the point two weeks ago
When he was generally 8/1 to win
He should be at least a saver bet
Suggested that was a bet to have

We arrive on the eve of the race
The weights have now gone up
Elegant Escape now has topweight

That may put a few off
Soft ground over 3m 6f

Not me he is the class horse
His highest rated opponents
All have serious problems here

He may only have a 0-145 to beat

Corals are 7/2 with 5 places

Very hard to see him unplaced
If he runs his race he will place

Seriously considered a big bet
Even at 7/2 and even each way

Only 1 thing stops me doing this
When he won this race last year
When I wrongly doubted his stamina
The distance was 300 yards shorter

Today is further with more weight
But his positives are compelling
He will be making the stakng plan

From a personal point of view
I may well split stake this race

£5 Place on Elegant Escape
£5 Win on something different

There are very few others
I would consider as the main bet

POTTERS CORNER is one
He has won a 4m Midlands National
Removes a lot of the stamina doubt

The Split Stake my strategy
May end up with a more orthodox stake
But very few can be fancied here
This pair two of the more solid ones


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