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Betting The Message

3 meetings

National Hunt cards
No all weather racing
Limited choice today

Covering just 4 races

Chose these two bets
To represent the day

Naas 2.50 - Envious Editor 2/1
Fontwell 3.00 - Umndeni 5/4

Each Way Double


Naas 3.50

Getaway Kid 11/2- 6/1

Each Way

It was a heavy Saturday
Going to make it a light Sunday
Not using either of the accounts




Saturdays Summary

Saturday's message was extensive
Which covered as many as 13 races
Returned 5 winners 7 losers 1 place
Certainly landed some big punches
Had a fair share of disappointments
Westport Lady costly as any others
She drifted and ran well below form
Lingfields results were easily best
Had 3 winners there 2 at big prices
We should have had 6 winning bets
Brewin'Upastorm fell about to win it
I feel we may just have won the day
Even if neither two staked bets won
Main bet BURGLAS placed each way
The result was probably predictable
I was right about Glencoe not trying
Made the bet pragmatic and sensible
But a place was the limit of his class
Didn't think it was too bad a message
Landed as many punches as we took


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Naas 2.50

15/8 Dream Conti, 3/1 Envious Editor, 11/2 Dumhach Thra,
15/2 Envol Pierji, 11/1 Empire Escape, 12/1 Cool Getaway,
14/1 Pairc Na Ngael, 16/1 Atlantic Shore, 20/1 Hurricane Junior,
20/1 Tens Or Better, 28/1 Gracious Gamble, 33/1 Everyone's Invited,
33/1 Mad Carew, Young Dev, 40/1 Keep Standing, Kilmurry,
50/1 Onefortherose, 66/1 Chapati, Glamorgan Duke, Peterstown,
100/1 Bellaney Gem, Daisy's Hollow, Doyouhearwhatisaid,
100/1 Scaramucci, 200/1 Gangsters Paradise.

2m 3f Maiden hurdle

Big field but few contenders
On Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
Two horses stand out

DREAM CONTI
ENVIOUS EDITOR

ENVOLY PIERJI is an unraced 5yo
Not for me based on this statistic
January To May
Maiden Hurdles over 2m 2f +
With over 13 runners in the race
Return a 0-130 record in these 5 months
They seem to struggle in big fields

Staying with the big field theme
Similar races in January and February
With over 13 runners
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from bumpers last season
Under 4 career starts
Return a 0-61 record in them

DUMHACH TIARA has this problem
He has no hurdling form as well

In Big field maiden hurdles
I would stay with experienced hurdlers
We have two setting decent standards

ENVIOUS EDITOR has been unlucky
He has ran into some smart horses
I think he may have too much for these

Option 1

ENVIOUS EDITOR 2/1

Win Bet

Option 2

Naas 2.50 - ENVIOUS EDITOR 2/1
Fontwell 3.00 - UMNDENI 5/4

Each Way Double

My choice would be Option 2





Fontwell 3.00

Evs Umndeni, 5/4 Birds Of Prey,
12/1 Grange Ranger, 12/1 Minella Examiner,
12/1 Rosy World, 33/1 High Up In The Air,
50/1 Do It For Thy Sen, 100/1 Bit Spicy,
100/1 Marocchino, 100/1 Three In One.

2m 3f Maiden Hurdle

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

127 Umndeni
120 Birds Of Prey
113 Birds Of Prey
111 Umndeni
96 Minella Examiner
86 Rosy World

Could well be a match

BIRDS OF PREY
UMNDENI

Both 5 year olds
Both have decent figures

Not inconceivable others can improve
ROSY WORLD was fancied on her debut
MINELLA EXAMINER was fancied as well
But both have plenty of find on the numbers

UMNDENI has the best numbers
But he did unseat on his latest run
Will be close between this pair
My Breeding stats have an opinion

BIRDS OF PREY is speedily bred
He is sired by Sir Prancealot
This sires hurdlers are 2-35
None so far have won beyond 2m
His sires record on the flat isn't good
No winners beyond 12 furlongs
Only 1 won beyond 10 furlongs
Given this is a 2m 3f race
UMNDENI just felt a bit safer
Ideal for an each way double
Short of that a modest win bet

Selection

UMNDENI 5/4

Win Bet




Naas 3.50

11/4 Punches Cross, 7/2 Danse Away, 6/1 Getaway Kid,
13/2 Poker Party, 10/1 Stowaway Forever, 14/1 Lisclogher Lad,
16/1 Monotype, 16/1 Allardyce, Another Barney, Damut,
18/1 Lilshane, 28/1 Runyon Rattler.

Novice Handicap Chase 2m 4f

PUNCHES CROSS is favourite
Not a safe profile coming from 2 miles
He is the only horse doing this

January February March April
Novice Handicap Chase
Run over 2m 4f or more

Horses under 7 years old
Coming from 2m Chases
Have won occasionally
Those with over 98 lifetime runs
Have a very modest 0-64 record
PUNCHES CROSS with 11 career runs
Fails this 0-64 angle over 4 months
Thats why I am into the race

DAMUT is 2nd in the weights
But 11 year olds really win these races
LILSHANE is also 11
LISCLOGHER LAD is a 12 year old
Both unlikely winners given their ages
RUNYON RATTLER is outclassed
ALLARDYCE is exposed for a 7yo
ANOTHER BARNEY has 3 Chase runs
Hammered miles in all 3 of these

There are a few down the weights
Who have realistic claims
This is not a soft race by any means
But we are getting some decent prices

GETAWAY KID won on his chase debut
Would have won on his second as well
Were it not for a last fence fall
He had Topweight that day
He has a similar task again today
Big improving chasing type
Said by his trainer to have real scope
He looks a decent value each way bet

Selection

GETAWAY KID 6/1

Each Way





Sedgefield 4.10

7/4 Baratineur, 100/30 Copt Hill, 7/2 Trapper Peak,
10/1 Hey Bob, 12/1 Strait Run, 16/1 Surrender,
20/1 Aza Run, 33/1 Cyrano Star, 40/1 First Of Never,
40/1 Starplex.

2m 1f Handicap Hurdle

No quality in this race

TRAPPER PEAK is the money horse
No doubt well treated on his old form
But he is a 10yo absent 112 days now
Very exposed with 31 hurdle starts

Maybe he will justify market support
But this angle put me off a bit

January and February
All Handicap Hurdles
Any Distance
Any Class
Horses aged 9 or more
Over 19 hurdle races
Absent more than 87 days
Return a terrible 1-157 record
Those running over 3m or shorter
Have a 0-148 record since 2006
TRAPPER PEAK shares this 0-148 profile

He has also just changed stables
His new trainer is doing very nicely
But she has never had an absent winner
None have won absent over 8 weeks so far

HEY BOB has a 1-47 career record
He has a 1-40 record over hurdles
His career best Racing Post Rating
Having had 40 hurdle runs is only 94
That tells us he is extremely modest

FIRST OF NEVER is a 13yo
Fails the same absence statistics
That Trapper John failed earlier

STARPLEX offers nothing appealing
CYRANO STAR has dreadful numbers
STRAIT RUN is very exposed
Running uncompetitive numbers
Ridden by an inexperienced rider
SURRENDER is only a 4yo
Has just not shown enough yet

BARATINEUR is running well
One of the few predictable types
Probbaly the most likely winner
But he is a short price around 7/4

COPT HILL is modest
But none of these have any class
Exposed 11yo with 51 hurdle runs
He just does not stay very well
As you'd expect from his pedigree
He does stay this far though
And in this class can't be ruled out

I'd ignore all his previous runs
Over 2m 3f + and in Class 4 or higher
His record over shorter in lower grade
Is a much better reflection of his ability
These are his ideal circumstances
So going to use him in a split stake bet

Selection

£6.50 Win COPT HILL 7/1

£3.50 Win BARATINEUR 7/4





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

The last column
Was last Wednesday
So need to catch up a bit
Will take a few days to do this



Australian Open Final

Currently in Play

Latest score as I type

N.Djokovic 6 3
Rafa Nadal 3 2

Djokovic won the first set
Playing the better right now
Never write off Nadal though
Second set going on serve
But I badly need a Djokovic win






Ante Post

Developments


Cheltenham Gold Cup

7/2 Presenting Percy 7/1 Native River 9/1 Kemboy
10/1 Clan Des Obeaux 16/1 Road To Respect
18/1 Al Boum Photo 20/1 Thistlecrack 25/1 Might Bite
33/1 Bellshill 33/1 Elegant Escape 33/1 Sizing John


PRESENTING PERCY

Won his comeback race
Over hurdles and told us little
Shortened to 7/2 for the Gold Cup
It seems fair and understandable
He earnt some brownie points
Seems to have a big following
Has not done enough yet for me

I think this is interesting
Presenting Percys next race
Feb 16th Red Mills Chase

What that means

On Cheltenham Gold Cup day
He will have had 2 runs in 50 days

When Cool Dawn won back in 1998
He had raced twice in the last 56 days
He is the only horse that managed that
Not sure that is a safe enough profile

Cheltenham Gold Cup
Horses with 2 or more runs
In the previous 56 days

Have a modest 1-37 record
Since Cool Dawn in 1998
All 31 that have tried failed

Having 2 rushed runs in 8 weeks
Has not been rewarded since 1998
And when Cool Dawn did it then
He Pulled up before he won the race
So did not actually have 2 full races
Maybe something Maybe nothing
But I am not persuaded by him yet

Frodon ran yesterday
Elegant Escape also ran
Neither appeal as potential winners


Personal Bet

Cheltenham Gold Cup

INVITATION ONLY 50/1

60/1 on Betfair
May not run who knows
Probably wont win either

But he won on Sunday at Gowran
I only had a couple of quid on him
To win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
I like that he has 9 Chase starts
And that he did a career best here

Last Sunday

Thyestes Handicap Chase

1st - Invitation Only 4/1

2nd - Alpha Des Obeau 20/1


Look who was 2nd on Sunday
My 50/1 Grand National horse

ALPHA DES OBEAUX 50/1

I gave this horse out weeks ago
As a speculative long range bet
To win the 2019 Grand National

I didn't fancy him Sunday
I doubt he was there to win
But that 2nd was a cracking run

Racing Post Chase Ratings

Alpha Des Obeaux did a 168 rating
That was a career best performance
His best previous rating was 161

His official rating is 155
His best Racing Post Rating 168
Suggests to me he is well handicapped
He has now had 5 runs this season
Beautifully reassuring for the National
After Sunday I topped on him at 50/1




Supreme Novice Hurdle

6/1 Angels Breath 10/1 Mister Fisher 12/1 Al Dancer
12/1 Elixir De Nutz 12/1 Vision Dhonneur 16/1 Aramon
16/1 Klassical Dream 18/1 Getaway Trump 25/1 Annamix
25/1 Felix Desjy

ANGELS BREATH

He missed an intended prep run
Thats the last thing his profile needed

VISION DHONNEUR is now a 12/1 chance
He is miles behind on the numbers

ANGELS BREATH has just 1 career race
The last 20 Supreme winners had these
5 15 7 4 5 8 9 8 5 8 9 8 6 21 9 7 7 26 17 13
He looks woefully short of experience

VISION DHONNEUR only has 3 runs
He only has 2 career hurdle races
The last 10 Supreme novice winners
Had 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 career hurdle runs

ARAMON is down to 16/1
That could be quite interesting
He has had 5 hurdle runs already
Comes from the Willie Mullins stable
And on Racing Post Hurdle ratings
He actually has the biggest figures

Racing post Hurdle Ratings

148 Aramon
146 Felix Desjy
144 Angels Breath
142 Mister Fisher
142 Al Dancer
141 Elixir De Nutz
140 Aramon
140 Aramon
139 Getaway Trump

ARAMON must be kept on side
Alongside some other positives
AL DANCER
MISTER FISHER
ELIXIR DE NUTZ




Salford City

Halifax 0-0 Salford City

Salford earnt an away point
In a drab rather boring draw
Slight setback no disaster

Although moving up from 3rd to 2nd
Salford lost a bit of ground overall
But that was really not unexpected
They had a harder task than many
Who had easy banker home games

Wrexham 1-0 Maidenhead United
Leyton Orient 3-0 Maidstone United
Solihull Moors 1-2 AFC Fylde

After 31 Games

Leyton Orient 60 pts
Salford City 57 pts
Solihull Moors 57pts
AFC Fylde 56pts
Wrexham 56pts

No Game next Saturday

The FA Trophy Cup returns

Suggested Salford at 9/2-5/1

Home to Maidstone (Round 3)

Should really win next week

And get to the Quarter Finals

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