9 Race Discussed
0 Account Bet
1 Highlighted Bet



Highlighted Bet

Bath 3.25

£8 Win BOUTONNIERE 11/4 - 3/1

£2 Win SKY DEFENDER 9/2





Tuesday's Message

This will be later than usual
Planning to send it at 12pm




Betting The Message

Bank Holiday Monday
No Future Betting Angles
Because of the schedule

Difficult and trappy as usual
Bank Holidays hard to master

Think the main priority today
Must be an advised selection
Just hope I've chosen it right

9 Races discussed

Kempton 1.45
Curragh 1.50
Bath 2.15
Down Royale 2.45
Beverley 3.05
Bath 3.25
Beverley 3.40
Kempton 4.45
Bath 5.10

These races interested me most


Down Royal 2.45

Glendaars Warrior 10/1 - 14/1

£7 Win
£3 Place
1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4

Not enough for a staked bet
Can't guarantee he will perform
He did not run well last time out
But have had my eye on him
Very well handicapped right now
Enough negatives against him
To believe he has a fair chance


Beverley 3.05

£4 Each Way Amazing Alba 8/1
£2 Win Bet Timetodock 11/2

Following my angles here
One or two absent types backed
Normally this is won by fit types
And I felt they were more suitable


Kempton 4.40

Dolos 11/8

Win Bet

Comfortably the class horse
Has to give lumps of weight away
Hoping that Class will prevail here


DOLOS

Probably should be the bet
But going with a better priced bet

Bath 3.25

£8 Win Boutonniere11/4 - 3/1

£2 Win Sky Defender 9/2






Tuesday's Message

Normally I'd take a day off
Makes sense before Chester
But because of my holiday
Decided to drop my day off

But I am sending it very late
Not going to do many previews
Will do some ante post/research
Which I may include tomorrow

So there will be a daily message
But it may not be a standard one
Fair chance there wont be a bet
But it will allow me to catch up



Sunday's Summary

No advised bets this Sunday
Didn't make much difference
My best bet was 2nd each way
Scorpion Black ran very well
Beaten only in a photo finish
Not a quality overall message
But I did warm it might not be
Meddled in far too many races
That needed some guesswork
Not a well structured message
Too many unnecessary races
Doesn't help that I predicted it





PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Kempton 1.45

5/2 Tiffin Top, 11/4 West Coast Flyer, 7/2 Twist,
4/1 Vision Clear, 14/1 Lantiern, Mystic Court,
20/1 War Drums, 33/1 Toshima, 100/1 Ledbury.

2m Novice Hurdle

8 past renewals

Should involve 5 runners

Horses aged 4
Have a 0-24 record in this race
They do win similar races elsewhere
But that record is a worry here

TWIST is a 4yo
He is a hurdling debutant as well
I would prefer a safer profile
Given his flat bred sire
Has a 2-72 record with unraced hurdlers

VISION CLEAR is a 4yo
Unseated last time but has a chance

TIFFIN TOP is a flat bred 4yo
Could not rule him out on form
Even if his age group are 0-24 in this

I'd prefer an older horse
WEST COAST FLYER not safe enough
Exposed flat horse with no hurdles form

2m Novice Hurdles
Run during May
Hurdling debutants
Over 15 career starts
Previous flat racing form
Return a 0-46 record in these races
WEST COAST FLYER has this 0-46 profile

LANTIERN comes from a bumper
Profile fine with 2 winners doing this
Considered him each way
Certainly been the money horse
But he was beaten in a bumper

His Trainer said this week

"He has shown huge potential in his bumpers
winning nicely at Lingfield on the all weather.
His schooling has been well above average
for a novice going hurdling so we are really
looking forward to running him."

VISION CLEAR appealed the most
Whilst no 4yo has won this race
Several like him have elsewhere
Better stable and could be improving

Selection

VISION CLEAR 7/2

Each Way




Curragh 1.50

5/2 Harpocrates, 5/2 Sunday Sovereign, 4/1 Arizona
15/2 Alligator Alley, 9/1 Daoub, 10/1 Historic Heart
16/1 Dragon Ryker, 20/1 Galactic Grey, 25/1 Prince Of Naples
25/1 Stage Power, 28/1 Half Nutz, 33/1 Never Mistabeat,
33/1 Princess Mayson, 66/1 David Garrick, 100/1 Getawiggleon
33/1 The Peckhampouncer, Tough Character, 150/1 Eircode.

6f Maiden

Big field of prospects
Aidan O'Brien also sticks his oar in

HARPOCRATES is unraced
Drawn 17 would worry me here
Maybe now the track has been done up
That will not be the case anymore
But I don't want to risk him first time

SUNDAY SOVEREIGN ran well on debut
He is the experienced option here
Comes from a decent enough maiden
With so much dead wood in the race
The percentage bet is surely each way

Selection

SUNDAY SOVEREIGN 11/4-3/1

Each Way





Bath 2.15

5/2 Gendarme, 4/1 Agent Gibbs, 11/2 Butterfield
6/1 Cougar Kid, 8/1 Dimmesdale, General Brook
12/1 Roc Astrale, 16/1 Another Go, 20/1 Millie May.

1m 3f Handicap

GENDARME
AGENT GIBBS

They are the class horses
They are the fittest horses
Come from the same race 5 days ago
Tempted to side with this pair
Than lower scoring lighter weights

One of the complications
John O'Shea trains 4 of the runners
Not sure what is going on there

GERERAL BROOK is one of his runners
He is a 9 year old absent 232 days
If you look at John O'Shea's record
His flat runners
Since 2012
Absent over 8 weeks
Have a weak 1-103 record

Happy to oppose this 9 year old
If we are right and get him beaten
Then Gendarme and Agent Gibbs
Only have a 0-61 class field to beat

BUTTERFIELD does have claims
Wasn't going to suggest a lightweight
But opposing him may be dangerous

My concern about opposing him
What if he has not been staying 14f +
Not unreasonable to suspect he hasnt
Down in trip and down in class
He could be a threat to the topweights

GENDARME is a 4yo
He is 3 years younger than Agent Gibbs
Prefer his chance of the pair
Think he is the most likely winner
With his recent runs on his side

BUTTERFIELD may be the right saver

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet GENDARME 9/4

£2.00 Win Bet BUTTERFIELD 6/1






Down Royale 2.45

9/4 Oromo, 6/1 Sillogue Pio, 8/1 James Boru
10/1 Glendaars Warrior, Hussle Up, Macho Mover
12/1 Mr Jacaranda, Musical Ava, 14/1 Canford Lady
Pretty Little Liar, 16/1 Bard Of Armagh, Cadougarde
16/1 Sicario, 20/1 Peaches And Cream, Sand Fly,
25/1 Santa Anna, 33/1 Doo Wakka Doo, Rosmarine.

2m Handicap hurdle

Open race

GLENDAARS WARRIOR is well treated
Noticed him 2 runs ago at Punchestown
Clearly handicapped to win off his mark

Still a maiden and below form last time
Much sharper track a possible excuse

Not a horse guaranteed to run well
But he is a big price with 4 places
And not too many can be fancied here
No 4 year old has won this race before
I would avoid that age group here
There are several unfancied outsiders
MUSICAL AVA is a mare absent 125 days
JAMES BORU has to drop down from 3m

OROMO has a chance
Win easily just 11 days ago
But very exposed and a short price
Why change from a top jockey to an amateur

GLENDAARS WARRIOR has the ability
Maybe one of those that never delivers
But he a lot better than his rating
With 4 places at a big price every chance

Selection

GLENDAARS WARRIOR 10/1 +

£7 Win

£3 Place

1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4




Beverley 3.05

9/2 One One Seven, 11/2 Amazing Alba
6/1 Swiss Connection, 13/2 Friendly Advice, Montalvan
10/1 Baldwin, Kyllachy Warrior, Timetodock, 12/1 Pearl Of Qatar
12/11 Skeetah, 16/1 Raypeteafterme, 25/1 Sambucca Spirit.

3yo Handicap over 5f

12 past renewals

MONTALVAN ran 7 days ago
Beaten 20 lengths on his seasonal debut
That can not be a safe profile

May June July
3yo Handicaps
Any distance
Any Class
Horses running within 9 days
1 previous race that season
Beaten 14 or more lengths last time
Return a 0-62 record in these months
MONTALVAN didn't do enough last time

Angles are clear in this race

11 of the 12 winners
Ran within the last 22 days

Horses absent over 22 days
Under 11 career starts
Have a 0-43 record in this race
The last 8 winners of this race
Had 10 5 11 9 11 8 8 6 previous runs

I would want a recent run
A Horse with 5 or more runs
Ideally from Class 4 or lower
Beaten under 12 lengths last time

4 horses have this profile

AMAZING ALBA
PEARL OF QATAR
TIMETODOCK
ONE ONE SEVEN

PEARL OF QATAR flopped last time
Well beaten over 6f not a good sign

ONE ONE SEVEN has experience
The most runs this season as well
Big runner if coping with stall 9
Has he got the class off bottomweight
Horses with under 8st 9lbs
Tend not to win this (1-27 record)

AMAZING ALBA is a filly
Nothing wrong with her profile
Quite similar to the 2017 winner

TIMETODOCK is down in distance
Respected and has a decent chance


Selection

£4 Each Way AMAZING ALBA 8/1

£2 Win Bet TIMETODOCK 11/2




Bath 3.25

2/1 Entertaining, 11/4 Boutonniere
7/2 Ragnar, 5/1 Sky Defender, 8/1 Greeley.

10f Handicap
Tight little race

ENTERTAINING has a chance
But would not make him first choice
Not keen that he steps up 3 furlongs
None of the other horses have that to do
Also have to bear in mind his sire

I gave a statistic the other day about him
No horse sired by Dandy Man
Has won over 9f or more
Without at least 4 previous races
A horse called Vivax won recently
He became the first to do this
But he won a bad race and didnt stay
No hurry to rush into betting another
When he has to step up 3f in distance
When he has raced just once in 2019

BOUTONNIERE has a safer profile
He has more recent races as well
I think he should be the favourite
Don't know enough about him
Bolted before the start last time
Would not want that to happen
Don't know enough to be sure
About either horse or his sire
Why he's not an account bet

ENTERTAINING did not convince
GREELEY may need another race
RAGNAR has just downgraded stables
To a yard few have heard of before
The best play may be this split stake

Selection

£8 Win Bet BOUTONNIERE 5/2

£2 Win Bet SKY DEFENDER 4/1








Beverley 3.40

2/1 Abushamah, 5/2 Muatadel, 11/2 Cameo Star
8/1 Relight My Fire, 10/1 Billy Wedge, 12/1 Dasheen
12/1 Straight Ash, 16/1 Peachey Carnehan.

7f Handicap

Beverley has 17 of these races
Run during the month of March
All 17 winners
Ran within 6 weeks
RELIGHT MY FIRE does not

Horses from 6f races
Struggle in this handicap
None have won any of the 17 races
Only 15 have tried but all failed

ABUSHAMAH is interesting
One of the few that does not fail that
He also has more recent runs than most
ABUSHAMAH has 3 runs this year from 7f

Some of these have 1 run this year
And also have to come from a 6f race

Horses Aged 4
Having just 1 run this season
Have a 0-21 record in these races
CAMEO STAR has this problem
STRAIGHT ASH has this problem
Both have to come up in distance
BILLY WEDGE is another 4yo
Who has just 1 run this season (0-21)

I would want a horse
Who comes from a 7f race
With more than 1 run this year
ABUSHAMAH fits those requirements

MUATADEL has recent runs
But he is up in distance
Has to prove stamina as well

Selection

ABUSHAMAH 11/4

Each Way





Kempton 4.40

6/4 Dolos, 5/2 Adrrastos,
11/4 Solar Impulse, 5/1 Dandridge,
8/1 Cut The Corner.

Handicap Chase 2m 2f

DOLOS is the class horse
In a different league to these
I think he can give weight away

DOLOS is rated 154

His only 4 opponents
Has ratings of 133 128 128 128

He gives 21lbs weight away
But he has earnt that superiority
Made him a negative last time out
When favourite in a graded race

Can't rule the others out
But none have the class of Dolos
ADRRASTOS had a hard race last time
He's only raced twice now since 2017
DOLOS close to his best
Maybe too classy for the others

Selection

DOLOS 11/8

Win Bet




Bath 5.10

2/1 Coronation Cottage, 11/2 Fareeq, 6/1 Fethiye Boy
6/1 Terri Rules, 7/1 David's Beauty, Powerful Dream,
14/1 Spanish Star, Midnight Guest, 33/1 Aquadabra,
50/1 Tally's Song.

5f Handicap

CORONATION COTTAGE
She is a short priced favourite
She is a 5yo mare
She won easily just 7 days ago
I have two objections to her
She could be on the bounce
She could be badly drawn 12 of 12

Bath 5f races
Horses drawn 10 or higher
Have a 0-30 record since 2018

Horses drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-19 record since 2017

Some won before 2017
But on the last 2-3 years evidence
We can say it can't be a good draw

CORONATION COTTAGE ran 7 days ago
That was her first run since June 2018
Quickly coming back after only 7 days
Suggests she may be on the bounce

5f races in May
1 run this season
Running within 13 days
Over 10 career starts
I find a 0-47 record with her type

Going to look elsewhere
Oppose her with an each way option
MIDNIGHT GUEST running low numbers
SPANISH STAR is absent too long
TERRI RULES is a 4yo filly
There are more likely winners

Several here have recent races
FETHIYE BOY has 62 days to overcome
Bit risky to pick him with an absence
When several have very recent races
But the 2013 winner had a similar profile

DAVID'S BEAUTY has the ability
She is fully effected here as well
She has a difficult draw in stall 11
She has also never won before June

FAREEQ has a solid chance
He looks more of an all weather horse
The doubt is how he will perform on turf
And will the ground be too fast for him
Don't see why he should not cope

POWERFUL DREAM could be safer
He has 3 wins on Firm Ground at Bath
With a short 3 day absence
He could easily be good enough

Selection

£3.75 Each Way POWERFUL DREAM 13/2

£1.25 Win Bet FETHIYE BOY 6/1

£1.25 Win Bet FAREEQ 7/1

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