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First message of the week
The start of a new fresh run
Ayr's western meeting tomorrow

Likely to be a bit rusty today
We've ended up with 7 previews
Feels a bit lame and unsettled
Hard to predict how today will go


Today's Message

Beverley 2.00
Yarmouth 2.45
Naas 3.20
Sandown 4.00
Naas 4.25
Beverley 5.10
Sandown 5.35


Yarmouth 2.45

£5 Win Bet MOLL DAVIS 7/1
£5 Win Bet FANNY LOGAN 11/10

Quite like the staking here
Neither particularly well drawn
May not be many that can win
The favourite would be odds on
Had she been given a better draw


Today's Best Bet


Naas 4.25

£2.50 Each Way KENSHIBU 16/1 - 20/1

£2.50 Each Way IN FROM THE COLD 12/1-14/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5 Places

Huge field Nursery
Quite an intimidating race
But again like this staking
Can not be sure about these
Whether they have enough class
But both ran well only 9 days ago
They come from the same nursery
And we only need 1 horse to place
With fitness and momentum on side
Difficult to see many better options
Most firms are offering 5 places

Considered highlighting this
But there are 20 + runners
Impossible to rate all the improvers
Not every firm offers 5 places either
It is a complicated bet to place

I will be quite surprised
If one of these can not be placed
But not confident one of them wins
Which is probably a good reason
To leave this off either account

Expecting to be a bit rusty
So going with a no bet day
Use today as a bit of practice
With a heavy schedule tomorrow




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Beverley 2.00

11/8 Calippo, 2/1 Queens Blade
5/2 She Looks Like Fun, 20/1 Comeatchoo
33/1 South Light, Teasel's Rock.

2yo Claimer (5f)

Fillies dominate this race
One of 3 should be winning

SHE LOOKS LIKE FUN is one
But she has raced once in 64 days
May not sound too radical a problem
But can not find a winner like her
QUEENS BLADE is on a hat trick
CALIPPO does have superior numbers
Only has to concede 1lbs to her
CALIPPO has no 5f form before
But she does have the fittest profile
And the numbers that should win
She was clear after 5f in her last run

Selection

CALIPPO 11/8

Win Bet




Yarmouth 2.45

9/4 Fanny Logan, 15/2 Moll Davis, 8/1 Maid For Life
11/1 Sh Boom, 14/1 Bighearted, 16/1 Snapraeceps
16/1 Inference, Naqaawa, Tauteke, 20/1 Cnoc An Oir
22/1 Brassica, Gallic, Norma, 50/1 Time Change
66/1 Brown Honey.

10f Listed race for fillies

FANNY LOGAN is progressive
Has a clear edge in this race
But she also has stall 16 to overcome

That is a problem
Best horse worse draw syndrome

Go back 20 years
Yarmouth races over 10f or more
Horses under 4
Drawn 14 or higher
Have a 0-75 record

FANNY LOGAN drawn 16 fails this
But her two biggest market rivals
Are both drawn high in stalls 13-14

May well see non runners anyway
FANNY LOGAN's clear superiority
May trump her draw at least enough
To buy her onto the low staking plan

Selection

£5 Win Bet MOLL DAVIS 7/1

£5 Win Bet FANNY LOGAN 11/10




Naas 3.20

6/4 Sunday Sweet, 3/1 Love Locket
6/1 Allez Allez Allez, Deidra, 8/1 Lynn Britt Cabin
10/1 Elfin Queen, 20/1 Clog Na Fola, 25/1 Holy Eleanor
33/1 Pikaia, 33/1 Sankari Del Reine, 33/1Switzer
50/1 Wild Cherry, 66/1 French Secret, 100/1 Dragon Flight
100/1 Franno, Miss Sassyboots, Rosemill, Stellify,
100/1 Watergrange Fairy, Wee Diamond.

6f Maiden

Not many can win this

Naas 6f races
Any race any time of year
If we look at unraced horses
Drawn in stalls 12 or higher
They have a 0-56 record since 2015
LYNN BRITT CABIN fails this
ALLEZ ALLEZ ALLEZ also fails this
ELFIN QUEEN is unraced
Looks down the stable pecking order

Two of the main issues in this race
SUNDAY SWEET's 117 day absence
LOVE LOCKET's debut for Aidan O'Brien

Hard to commit to her
Unraced in a big field over 6f
When Aidan often leaves them short

DEIDRA has 3 runs
Excuses can be made for her
Not many from her sire win on debut at 6f
Her next run was over even further
She has none nothing wrong so far
May find one too progressive
But that is far from certain to happen
Will be hard for 3 to finish ahead of her
The winner of the only renewals in 2018
Won with a similar profile and 3 runs

Selection

DEIDRA 6/1-13/2-7/1

Each Way




Sandown 4.00

3/1 Loving Glance, Magical Rhythms
5/1 Al Messila, 11/2 Lady Bowthorpe, 6/1 Clara Peeters
8/1 Alandalos, 11/1 I'lletyougonow.

8f Fillies Handicap (3yo)

Complicated race
Only 7 runners as well

LOVING GLANCE has topweight
Only 3 career starts as well
Not a good race for high weights
If you look at horses with 9st +
Who have under 5 career starts
You find a 0-13 record in this race
Dislike her weight/inexperience angle
MAGICAL RHYTHMS also fails this
under 5 runs and 9st and more
Every past winner of this race
Came from Class 4 or lower
I'LLETYOUGONOW does not do this
CLARA PETERS comes via a 7f handicap
No past winners came from that route
No horse that came from 7f or shorter
Had fewer than 5 career starts
LADY BOWTHORPE has this problem
Shortlisting just these 2 horses

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet AL MESSILA 4/1

£1.50 Win Bet ALANDALOS 7/1-8/1



Naas 4.25

9/2 Lampetia, 5/1 Shines Her Light, 6/1 Mythologic
8/1 Brilliant Question, Cursu Mina, Luke Short,
8/1 Moondrop, Myrcella, 10/1 Calidus Mirabilis
12/1 Gunmetal Jack, 12/1 In From The Cold
14/1 Dragon Of Malta, 16/1 Kenshibu, 20/1 Auma
20/1 Princess Mayson, 25/1 Amelia Jane,
25/1 Total Euphoria, 33/1 Convincer, 66/1 Eircode
66/1 Golden Glow.

8f Nursery

Big field but interesting

Several things to consider

Naas 8f races

Horses drawn 18 or more
Have a 0-66 record since 2015

MYRCELLA has a tough draw in 18
LUKE SHORT likewise in stall 21
DRAGON OF MALTA is drawn 22
BRILLIAN QUESTION drawn 23

Every past winner of this
Had 4 or more career starts
SHINES HER LIGHT has 3 runs
Not for me coming from a 5f race
LUKE SHORT has the same issue
CURSU MINA only has 3 runs
Unlikely winner from stall 1
AMELIA JANE may find this too warm
With just the 1 run since July
MOONDROP only has 3 runs
Unsafe as a filly from a 6f race
GUNMETAL JACK is rejected
Only 3rd in a maiden claimer last time

MYRCELLA has a safe profile
But stall 18 weakens her chance
Stable has a poor 1-62 record since 2014

CALIDUS MIRABLIS has 5 runs
Needs improvement but thats likely
No strong objection to her chance

LAMPETIA is also a filly from 6f
That would worry me with topweight
Excuses last time drawn 1 at Cork
But a lot to ask going up 2 furlongs

Shortlist

MYTHOLOGICAL has ability
Not clear if he is the O'Brien number 1
But on last time Racing Post Ratings
He is a long way clear of the others
You may expect that as 2nd topweight
But have to see him as an overall positive
Main concern with him is his size
Not very big not sure what scope he has

KENSHIBU ran 9 days ago
Nothing much wrong with his profile
Made the running over 8f last time
May have gone off too quickly
That was a better race on softer ground

IN FROM THE COLD ran in the same race
Stayed on and has a bit of momentum

Betting this pair each way
Both fit and in form
Requires just one to place

Selection

£2.50 Each Way KENSHIBU 16/1 -20/1

£2.50 Each Way IN FROM THE COLD 12/1-14/1





Beverley 5.10

7/2 Dependable, 5/1 Hippeia
11/2 Klipperty Klopp 13/2 Kodi Koh, 7/1 Phenakite
7/1 Corked 8/1 Midnight Vixen, 12/1 Bob's Girl,
16/1 Henrietta's Dream, 20/1 Clipsham Tiger
66/1 Supreme Dream.

8f Apprentice Classified Stakes

16 Past renewals

Complicated and unusual race
Horses aged 3
Do have the best overall record
But you need a bit of experience

Horses with under 5 runs
Have a 0-30 record in this race
PHENNAKITE failing this looks wrong
Male horses with under 10 runs
Have a 0-41 record in this race
CLIPSHAM TIGER also fails this

DEPENDABLE has a chance
But not the best age as a 4yo
He also has to step up in distance
He is also short of runs this year
CORKED is an older mare
Her numbers consistently average
She is not well treated as the weights
HIPPEIA ran badly over 7f last time
She is far from certain to stay this far
KODI KOH is another badly treated
Would be better off in a handicap
MIDNIGHT VIXEN has to get the trip
With 1 run in 112 days she is unsafe

Best profile

Horses aged 3
Absent more than 45 days
Have a 5-28 record in this

Thats an encouraging return
Those with over 13 career starts
Have a W W W record in this race
KLIPPERY KLOPP has the profile

Can not be sure if she stays
Can not be sure she is fit either
But that profile makes her the choice
Just hope her stamina/fitness lasts out

Selection

KLIPPERY KLOPP 6/1

Each Way



Sandown 5.35

3/1 Petite Malle, 100/30 Mina Vagante
4/1 Angel's Whisper, 11/2 Uncertain Smile
15/2 Venusta, 10/1 Falcon Cliffs, 14/1 Guroor
16/1 Your Thoughts, 20/1 Narjes.

10f Fillies Handicap

The history of this race
Suggests you want a 3yo
Horses aged 4 or more are 0-23
More specifically a 3yo with 6-10 runs

Best profile

Horses aged 3
6-10 runs
Coming from Class 4-5
Running within a month
Coming from 8f 9f 10f

MINA VAGANTE is the best match

Selection

MINA VAGANTE 7/2

Each Way




Future Betting Angles


Champions League

Returned last night
More games this evening

Mark Langdon
Racing Post's football man
Has split staked his selections

1pt Paris St-Germain 11-1
1pt Liverpool 13/2

Don't feel drawn to either
Manchester City's year for me

His Topscorer bet
Looks rather familiar !
We had the same bet last year

Karim Benzema 0.5pt each-way 40-1
Robert Lewandowski 0.5pt each-way 14-1

We got a place out of it
Never looked to be in any danger
I really like the structure of the bet
But far more biased towards a place
Big ask for either player to win this
After last year feel we should leave it




Ayr Gold Cup (Part 2)

Buffer Zone 8/1 Summerghand 10/1 Urban Beat 12/1
Arecibo 14/1 Danzeno 14/1 Gulliver 14/1 Open Wide 14/1
Alkaraama 16/1 Baron Bolt 16/1 Cold Stare 16/1
Justanotherbottle 16/1 Air Raid 16/1 Al Qahwa 20/1
Bernardo O’Reilly 20/1 Good Effort 20/1 Hey Jonesy 20/1
Intisaab 20/1 Lahore 20/1 Major Jumbo 20/1 Mr Lupton 20/1
Stone of Destiny 20/1 Admirality 25/1 Bacchus 25/1
Citron Major 25/1 Donjuan Triumphant 25/1
George Bowen 25/1 Growl 25/1 Gunmetal 25/1
Lake Volta 25/1 Laugh A Minute 25/1 Magical Wish 25/1
Muscika 25/1 Red Balloons 25/1 Richenza 25/1
Staxton 25/1 Alaadel 33/1 Aljady 33/1 Angel Alexander 33/1
Ardhoomey 33/1 Camacho Chief 33/1 Downforce 33/1
Embour 33/1 Glenamoy Lad 33/1 Great Prospector 33/1
Hyperfocus 33/1 Ice Lord 33/1 Louie de Palma 33/1
Rathbone 33/1 Royal Residence 33/1 Show Stealer 33/1
Barbill 40/1 El Hombre 40/1 Gabrial The Wire 40/1
Lancelot du Lac 40/1 Major Valentine 40/1 Count Otto
50/1 Merhoob 50/1 Sanaadh 50/1 Soldier's Minute 50/1


Sent the best profile

It seems quite significant
The 10 previous winners
All share the same profile

Horses with this profile

Male horses aged 3-4-5-6
Rated 97 or higher
8st 12lbs or more
Running within 35 days
2 + runs in the last 12 weeks
Coming from 5f 6f 7f
Not from Listed or Group 2-3 races
Beaten under 7 lengths last time

Revised shortlist

The following have pulled out

Camacho Chief - Emaraaty Ana
Vanbrugh - Flavius Titus

The following are added
Their runs last weekend
Now taken into account

Buffer Zone
Ardhoomey



Revised shortlist of 13

Major Jumbo 20/1 - Summerghand 16/1
Justanotherbottle 16/1 - Baron Bolt 16/1
Stone of Destiny 20/1 - Open Wide 16/1
Angel Alexander 33/1 - Arecibo 14/1
Gulliver 33/1 Lake Volta 25/1 Staxton 25/1
Ardhoomey 25/1 - Buffer Zone 14/1

Another interesting angle

Combination statistic

Ayr Gold cup
Ayr Silver Cup
Ayr Bronze Cup

Horses aged 6 or more

Absent over 14 days

Have a 1-209 record

Since as far back as 1997

Prepared to be a bit flexible here
If they only fail this by a few days

The horses failing this 1-209 angle

Should they run in the race

Downforce 33/1
Lancelot du Lac 40/1
Mr Lupton 20/1
Merhoob 50/1
Louie de Palma 33/1
George Bowen 25/1
Growl 25/1
Donjuan Triumphant 25/1
Al Qahwa 20/1

No Major Players there
But every little bit helps
And this 1-209 statistic
Works for all 3 Ayr races
Gold SIlver and Bronze Cups

One issue to consider

The very recent returners

Short Absences

Buffer Zone - 6 days
Gulliver - 6 days
Ardhoomey - 6 days
GunMetal - 7 days
Justanotherbottle - 7 days
Arecibo - 7 days
Lake Volta - 7 days
Embour - 7 days
Admirality - 7 days
Gabrial The Wire - 7 days
Intisaab - 8 days


Not all these will run

Horses running within 10 days
Won this race in the following years

2002
2003
2004
2009
2018

Last years winner did it
Ran in the same Curragh race
That Buffer Zone won on Sunday

The 5 winners
Who had recent runs
Also had this profile

They were aged under 7

They had 9st 3lbs or less

Ran within 5 lengths last time

But were also beaten last time


Those like Buffer Zone
Winning in the last 10 days
Had a 0-11 record in this race
Buffer Zone also has more weight
Than those with very recent runs

From the recent returners

The following
Do Not share this profile
Matched by all recent returners

Buffer Zone 8/1
Ardhoomey 33/1
GunMetal 25/1

Not the strongest of angles

The Draw will be more important

19 of the last 21 winners
12 of the last 12 winners
All drawn in stalls 7 to 22

GULLIVER was interesting me

But if you look at the last 12 winners

Horses with over 27 career starts
Had a pretty worrying 1-117 record

Do we really want horses
Who have ran so many times now

Gulliver has 38 races

Others on the Shortlist
Who have over 27 career runs

Major Jumbo 31 runs
Summerghand 29 runs
Justanotherbottle 30 runs
Baron Bolt 32 runs
Open Wide 33 runs
Lake Volta 39 runs
Ardhoomey 39 runs

Horses on the shortlist

Who have under 27 runs
And may be safer because of it
Are these 5 horses

Buffer Zone 14/1
Staxton 25/1
Stone of Destiny 20/1
Angel Alexander 33/1
Arecibo 14/1

Not a final shortlist
Just another piece of the puzzle
Which will become much clearer
By roughly tomorrow lunchtime
With the declarations and the draw

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