9 Previews
1 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet


Account Bet


Market Rasen 2.15

REPETITO 9/4 - 2/1

Win Bet


9/4 Ladbrokes Corals Betfred
9/4 VC PPower Bet365 Tote Boyles
2/1 Unibet Betway 888Sport
15/8 Skybet


The shrewdest bet really
Would be to bet him each way
Too short for most people at 9/4
I'd be happy to bet that myself
Some may try and wait for 5/2
But to avoid any price stresses
Decided to stake him win only




Today's Message

Haydock has been abandoned
That has cost us two previews
Races we looked at in midweek
Have had to reshuffle the pack
Added two replacement races

Curragh 1.25
Market Rasen 2.15
Newmarket 2.25
Curragh 2.35
Newmarket 3.00
Newmarket 3.40
Chester 3.55
Market Rasen 4.00
Newmarket 4.15


Cambridgeshire Day

Not a race for a staked bet
Bedouin's Story is my choice
Impossible to be confident
My angles led me towards him
But no more than a bit of fun
Many will have a stronger view


Market Rasen 2.15

REPETITO 9/4 - 2/1

Win Bet


My favourite preview
Feel this is my strongest bet
Had this horse been 5/2 or more
I would had faced a nasty dilemma
Being tempted to bet him each way
But the general price is shorter
The win bet is obviously far riskier
Looks like 3 horses might dominate
Could end up with 3 Co-favourites
Win lose or draw its the case is made


Newmarket 2.25

£5 Win Bet LIVING IN THE PAST 10/1

£5 Win Bet RAFFLE PRIZE 11/10

Wasn't sure how to stake this
Living In The Past is fascinating
Could have gone with him each way
But feels a bit too weak in the market
He is 14 on Betfair and should be 7/1
Horses that won the Lowther Stakes
Have a W W W W W W W record in this
Living In The Past the 8th now to try
Decided in the end to split stake this
Has to be one of my better options


With Haydock abandoned

The list of Possible bets narrowed

There are some selections
That I could not realistically go for
Because they are in weaker markets


Chester 3.55

SOCIETY GUEST 7/1

Each Way

This is a good example
Weak market and unsafe to stake
Not that sure he is good enough
But there are positives about him
Maybe just not account standard


Market Rasen 4.00

SCARLET DRAGON 100/30

Each Way

Sent some angles midweek
Alongside some generic stats
Whilst this is a bit underwhelming
He could have a fitness advantage
Many of his rivals face absences
Think he was an account option
But he is a bit shorter than I'd like
Hasn't jumped a hurdle in a while


REPETITO at Market Rasen

Has to be my strongest bet
But it does mean a win bet at 9/4

Bit shorter than usual for Saturday
But with 2 Haydock options down
The list of possible bets narrows







Friday's Summary

Short enough message yesterday
Before Haydock was abandoned
Left us with only 1 bet to review
The horse backed from 5/1 to 9/4
Managed to hold on for 3rd place
That was a bit too close for comfort
But he did the minimum we required
Wish I could have covered lots more




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Curragh 1.25

2/1 Yale, 5/1 Royal Canford, 6/1 Miacomet
7/1 Abanica, 10/1 Aisteoir, Gee Rex, Son And Sannie
14/1 A Delight, 20/1 Born In The U S A, Cactus Tree
20/1 Soldier's Folly, 25/1 Gabrielle Noir, 33/1 Fanny Blankers
50/1 Irish Ambassador, Stellar Dreams, 66/1 More Than One
100/1 Abs Akula, Theweehard.

6f Maiden

YALE 11/8 cost a Million Dollars
Has a prep run for Aidan O'Brien
So no surprise if he takes this

But he has a lot against him here
His debut run set a modest standard
Do we really want a once raced horse
At the Curragh on soft in a big field
When several of his biggest dangers
Have significantly more experience

His other problem may be Stall 1
Look at races here with 10 + runners
In 2019 horses drawn 1 are 0-20

Horses with under 3 career starts
Drawn between Stall 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
Have a 0-34 record in 6f races this year

Go back to 2017
Curragh 6f races
With 8 or more runners
Horses drawn 1-2 were 0-45

YALE looks in a bad stall
I can not trust him at the price
With the above concerns
Going for an each way alternative
There are no obviously safe options
But I felt the least risky was this

Selection

£4.00 Each Way GEE REX 11/2 - 6/1

£2.00 Win Bet ROYAL CANFORD 9/2





Market Rasen 2.15

7/4 Production, 9/4 Zeb Spirit, 5/2 Repetitio
12/1 Lonimoss Bareliere , 14/1 Hypnos
14/1 Half Bolly, 20/1 Wontgetfooledagen
100/1 Justice Shallow

3yo Hurdle

This is an interesting race
May only be 3 potential winners
None of the outsiders look right
LONIMOSS BARELIERE as an example
Only has form over 5f and 6f before
Faces a long absence & stamina doubts

PRODUCTION 7/4

Very smart stable
But has no hurdle form at all
10 Flat races and rated 80
The best flat form in the race

However
There is a Breeding angle
That may or may not be significant
Based on his sire Oasis Dream

Oasis Dream
Hurdle runners
Any distance
Any ground

His unraced hurdlers
Have so far recorded a 0-58 record
PRODUCTION the 59th to try

Oasis Dream
Hurdle runners
Good to Soft or softer
Have a modest 4-136 record

Those with 5 + runs are 4-51
Those with under 5 runs are 0-85

No Oasis Dream Hurdler
Has won on ground softer than good
Without at least 5 previous hurdle runs
PRODUCTION has none at all

He may win and embarrass me
But on those angles looking elsewhere

Hurdle runs

3 Repetitio
1 Zeb Spirit
1 Hypnos
0 Production
0 Lonimoss Bareliere
0 Half Bolly
0 Wontgetfooledagen

REPETITO has the edge
With 2 more hurdle runs
Than alll of his main rivals

ZEB SPIRIT is a big danger
He has raced just once over hurdles
So did the 2005 and 2008 winners
But in the last 10 seasons
Horses with 1 hurdle run
Have a 0-25 record in this race

He is also sired by Zebedee
The sires hurdlers are just 5-111
Looks very flat /sprint bred to me
Being out of a Red Ransom mare

He did manage to win on his debut
But it was a poor quality hurdle
The 4/11 favourite flopped as well

REPETITO has more experience
Won a Handicap Hurdle 7 lengths last time

It was not a great race
But it was a big enough field
He was the only 3yo in the race
He beat older hurdlers easily

If you look at the last 3 renewals

Male Horses winning last time
Over 2 previous hurdle races
Running within the last 6 weeks
Have a W W 2 W record since then

REPETITO looks the bet

Personally
I would be more than happy
To bet him each way at 5/2 or more
Not everybody will like that strategy
I'd be happy to go win only as well

Win lose or draw
He should be favourite in this race

Selection

REPETITO 2/1-9/4

Win Bet





Newmarket 2.25

5/4 Raffle Prize, 9/2 Tropbeau, 7/1 Living In The Past
10/1 Etoile, 12/1 Millisle, 14/1 Dark Lady, 16/1 Nurse Barbara
20/1 Nina Bailarina, Tango, 25/1 Lil Grey, 100/1 Moon Of Love.

Cheveley Park Stakes

Group 1 race

2yo Fillies over 6f

There are things we can't know
One of them in the French raider
TROPBEAU comes from Andre Fabre
Obviously deserves huge respect
But no way to rate her down in trip
Very few winners win this from 7f

ETIOLE has raced just once

Past winners
Had the following career runs
4 4 5 2 7 4 3 4 6 3 2 6 5 3 4
No recent winner had 1 race
The last to do it was 19 years ago
ETIOLE also has 132 days off
Longer than all previous winners

RAFFLE PRIZE sets the standard
Racing Post Ratings show
She has a 3 length advantage here
She is obviously a major player

Racing Post Ratings

113 Raffle Prize
110 Living In The Past
109 Tropbeau
105 or less - Others

Only reason I am previewing this
Is to report on a unknown statistic

Horses from the Lowther Stakes
Have a very creditable 7-37 record
They provided these past winners
1998 2001 2003 2012 2014 2015 2018

It goes deeper than that

Horses losing in the Lowther
Have a 0-30 record

Horses who won the Lowther
Have a W W W W W W W record

All that that tried won

LIVING IN THE PAST is the 8th to try
That significant looking 7-7 record
Is enough to make her the selection

Not sure how fancied she is
She seems very weak in the betting
But that does allow room for a saver
May just be better to play it this way

Selection

£5 Win Bet LIVING IN THE PAST 10/1

£5 Win Bet RAFFLE PRIZE 11/10





Curragh 2.35

7/1 Make A Challenge, Verhoyen, 8/1 Cityman, Urban Beat
10/1 Fridtjof Nansen, Rapid Reaction, 14/1 Aspen Belle
14/1 Aurora Eclipse, 14/1 Only Spoofing,14/1 Primo Uomo
16/1 Angelic Light, Ardhoomey, Master Matt, Scorching Heat
20/1 Aleef, Castletownshend, Emadee, Maarek, Shatharaat
25/1 Tide Of Time, 66/1 Zathura.

5f Handicap

High class handicap
This has been switched from Naas
Looked impossible before that happened
So only going to have a play around here

Go back to 2011
5f races at the Curragh
With under 28 runners
Horses drawn 16 or more
Have a modest 1-41 record

The very high draw
May have a more difficult task

ONLY SPOOFING has stall 19
FRIDJOF NANSEN is drawn 21

VERHOYEN has a bad drawn in stall 20
He fails the following statistic as well

September + October
Class 2 Handicaps (5f)
Horses aged 4 or more
Absent more than 36 days
Have a miserable 1-117 record

VERHOYEN fails this absent 70 days
EMADEE fails this 1-117 statistic
TIDE OF TIME also fails this as well
AURORA ECLIPSE fails this as well

AURORA ECLIPSE is sired by Kodiac
Horses aged 4 or more
Sired by Kodiac
Running over 5f on soft
There is a 0-63 record with this
Not sure how relevant that angle is
But a few here do have this sire
ALEEF fails this and lacks positives
SHATHARAAT a similar situation

September and October
Curragh
Class 2 Handicaps
Run between 5f and 12f

Horses aged 3
They can and do win
Bit those running within 21 days
Have a horrible 0-78 record
MASTER MATT has this problem
ZATHURA also has this problem

URBAN BEAT has topweight
He has raced just once in 106 days
That may not be an easy task for him
ANGELIC LIGHT is a 3yo filly
She has raced only once in 141 days
SCORCHING HEAT's numbers are low
CASTLETOWNSEND is rated only 78
May not have the class for this handicap
ASPEN BELLE in the same position
Liked her recent runs but a 6yo mare
Probably isn't the best strategy here

RAPID REACTION impossible to read
She is a 4yo filly from a Listed race
Reasons I could have shortlisted her
But she has a 7lbs claimer on
She is a filly with 1 run in 66 days

The concerns won over the positives

Shortlist

CITYMAN 8/1
ARDHOOMEY 14/1
MAKE A CHALLENGE 5/1

CITYMAN is also a 3yo
With 21 days off on the cusp of that
He has more runs than the 3yo winners
Felt he was a bit exposed for a 3yo
But I can match him to winners elsewhere

ARDHOOMEY has a lot of positives
But is getting a bit long in the tooth

MAKE A CHALLENGE is shortlistable

Selection

£4 Each Way ARDHOOMEY 16/1

£2 Win Bet MAKE A CHALLENGE 9/2





Newmarket 3.00

2/1 Earthlight, 11/4 Mums Tipple, 4/1 Siskin
10/1 Monarch Of Egypt, Threat, 14/1 Lope Y Fernandez
20/1 Golden Horde, 100/1 King Neptune
100/1 Summer Sands.

Middle Park Stakes

Mouth watering race
Captured everyones imagination
But traditionally this race
Is a dead duck statistically
Have not done this in years

We have 3 top class prospects

EARTHLIGHT from France
MUMS TIPPLE from England
SISKIN from Ireland

MUMS TIPPLE thrilled on 2nd run
The main difference between these
He has raced twice before

SISKIN has 4 runs
EARTHLIGHT has 4 runs
Will that make a difference

Recent winners had these runs
2 8 9 5 3 4 4 3 2 3

Ten Sovereigns won with 2 runs
Dream Magic did as well in 2010
But generally winners had more

Both winners with 2 runs
Came here winning Group races
MUMS TIPPLE has no Group form

When Dream Ahead won in 2010
He came from the Prix Morny
Thats been a superb trial race

Several horses have won this
Coming from the Prix Morny in France

Elusive City - Whipper
Dream Ahead - Bahamian Bounty
Dutch Art - Johannesburg

EARTHLIGHT attempts to join these
Because of that good trial link
And his extra experience as well
Just favour him in an open Group 1

Not even sure this is a 3 horse race
The Numbers suggest it may not be
This can only be a small stake guess
That guess is on the side of France
Unpalatable as it may well be
Going down the burglary route

Selection

Small Stakes

EARTHLIGHT 5/2

Each Way




Newmarket 3.40

7/1 Good Birthday, Le Don De Vie, 9/1 Lord North
11/1 Fifth Position, 12/1 Bedouin's Story, Majestic Dawn
14/1 Afaak, Jazeel, Mordin, 20/1 Beringer, Korcho
25/1 Baltic Baron, Chance, Dark Vision, Dubai Horizon
25/1 Petrus, 33/1 Another Touch, Fajjaj, 40/1 Zhui Feng
50/1 Al Jellaby, 50/1 Alternative Fact, 50/1 Cockalorum
50/1 History Writer, Little Jo, Nicholas T, Queen Of Time,
50/1 You're Hired, 66/1 Badenscoth, Mulligatawny,
50/1 Smile A Mile, 100/1 Music Seeker.

Cambridgeshire

Sent the full preview yesterday
One of several updates on the race

Provisional Selection

BEDOUIN'S STORY 14/1

Obviously this race is a lottery
Godolphin horse in a handicap
Doesn't sound too bad an idea
He is fit and running very well
Two career bests in a row now

LE DON DE VIE has stall 33
As I mentioned only yesterday
No race short of 2 miles here
Was won by a horse drawn 30 +
Since the 2011 stall renumbering

LORD NORTH only has 4 runs
No horse with under 5 career runs
has finished 1-2-3-4 in decades now

JAZEEL drops down from a 12f race
That has not happened in 28 years
He is very exposed with 22 runs
No winners as exposed as him
Won absent more than 2 weeks (0-132)
Horses aged 4 like him
With 18 or more runs were 0-85
He may win many have tipped him
But the angles say he is too risky

GOOD BIRTHDAY is a 3 year old
With just the 1 run in 78 days now
He is not matchable to any winner

Obviously no reason
To repeat all of yesterdays work
But applied all angles carefully

Provisional Shortlist

MORDIN
BEDOUINS STORY
BALTIC BARON
LE DON DE VIE
GOOD BIRTHDAY

Selection

BEDOUINS STORY 14/1

1/5 The odds

1-2-3-4-5-6 Places





Chester 3.55

2/1 Toronado Queen, 3/1James Park Woods,
9/2 Society Guest 5/1 Corrida De Toro
6/1 Bullington Boy 50/1 Notwhatiam, 50/1 Prince Consort
100/1 Andies Armies, Celerity, Hilbre Lake,
100/1 Isabella Ruby, 100/1Just Heather
100/1 Loveatfirstlight.

7f Novice (3yo)

TORONADO QUEEN is favourite
The reason for that may be the draw
She has managed to get stall 1
Several main dangers are drawn high

Not sure that is a great advantage
She is dropping in trip for starters
If she does not break out well
Against far more experienced horses
Stall 1 could be a curse not a blessing

What worries me about her
She is a filly
With just 2 runs on soft ground
When having a penalty to carry

The sole winner of this race
Had 14 career starts
Had ran just 7 days ago
And had stall 8 as well

SOCIETY GUEST is very similar

Dont rule out the high draws here
But some have quite extreme draws
BULLINGTON BOY has stall 13
Bit uncomfortable drawn that high

JAMES PARK WOODS looks fine
SOCIETY GUEST looks good as well

Runs Since September

3 Society Guest
1 Toronado Queen
1 Bullington Boy
0 Corrida De Toros
0 James Park Woods

SOCIETY GUEST should be
The fittest horse in this race

Fitness not always matters
Especially in Novice and Maidens
But this is softer ground
He is quite like the 2019 winner

Selection

SOCIETY GUEST 7/1

Each Way



Market Rasen 4.00

7/2 Scarlet Dragon, 9/2 Gumball, 7/1 Azzuri
8/1 Definitelyanoscar, Earlofthecotswolds, Storm Rising
10/1 Flashing Glance, 12/1 Mohaayed, 14/1 Jacamar
14/1 See The Sea, 20/1 The Gipper, 25/1 Applesandpierres
100/1 Go West Young Man.

Handicap Hurdle (2m)
Listed Class
8 past renewals

Sent a full statistical preview
A few days ago in this race
Including some Generic Stats

May to November
Handicap Hurdles under 2m 3f
Listed and Graded Class
Horses aged 8 or more
More than 4 hurdle runs
Have a 0-123 record since 2003
GO WEST YOUNG MAN fails this
APPLESANDPIERRES also fails this
THE GIPPER also fails this angle

34 similar races in September
Class 2 + over any distance snce 2008
Horses aged 4 have a 0-23 record
JACAMAR is the only 4 year old

These 34 races show
Horses absent over 6 weeks
With 11 or more hurdle races
Have a 0-63 record in them
If we take this back to 1998
Horses with this profile are 0-78
STORM RISING fails this angle
THE GIPPER fails this as well
MOHAAYED fails this 0-78 statistic
He has more weight that past winners

Past winners of this race
Had the following runs since May
5 2 6 0 4 6 2 5 9
FLASHING GLANCE is unsafe
Just 1 run now since April 2009
With 14 hurdle runs may be underraced

SEA THE STAR is a mare
Do we really want her profile
As a mare from a Novice Hurdle
No mare aged 5 or 6
Has won a similar pattern handicap
Coming from a non graded hurdle race

Past winners of this race
Had the following days absences
42 62 28 21 6 21 42 25

EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS is a 5yo
Fails the absence stat off 178 days
GUMBALL has 134 days off as well
Might win but has to be a concern

DEFINATELYANOSCAR is a mare
She has raced just once since March
AZZURI has a similar problem
Having raced once since April
No surprise if either of these win
But 8 of the last 9 winners
Had more recent runs than both

SCARLET DRAGON

Quite an exposed horse
But lightly raced over hurdles
A good flat run 8 days ago
Might give him an advantage
Hopefully enough to at least place

Selection

SCARLET DRAGON 100/30

Each Way



Newmarket 4.15

7/2 Baaqy, 4/1 Princess Bride, 5/1 Love Bracelet
6/1 Sunset Kiss, 6/1 Queen's Favour, 10/1 Dream Round
12/1 Lady Lynetta, 16/1 Evening Spirit, 20/1 Folk Dance
20/1 Nibras Shadow, 33/1 Island Hideaway, Sablet,
50/1 Folie D'Amour, 100/1 Pax Britannica
100/1 Princess Siyouni.

7f Maiden
2yo fillies

The last 4 winners
Had Racing Post ratings of 90 +
None today have decent numbers

Racing Post Ratings

74 Lady Lynetta - Love Bracelet
73 Love Bracelet - Princess Bride
72 Baaqy
68 Lady Lynetta
62 Love Bracelet
69 Sunset Kiss
68 Nibras Shado

For a maiden in September
On a Grade 1 track like this
The standard set up to now
Has been worryingly low

I could be completely wrong
But that suggests to me

Either an unraced horse
Or a once raced big improver
May have enough to beat these

Some of the unraced horses
Who could easily pop up and win

Queen's Favour 9/1
Evening Spirit 12/1
Dream Round 12/1

None of these are from stables
I would trust with 7f debutants

So the best plan
May be a once raced big improver

BAAQY could be that horse
She has impeccable connections
But worryingly weak in the betting
Not sure if she will stay either

But the standard set so far is poor

PRINCESS BRIDE is once raced
Could be capable of a big step forward

When she ran 3rd on her debut
The two horses that beat her that day
Both had the advantage of 2 prep runs
She was not fancied and a 2nd string

Selection

PRINCESS BRIDE 7/2

Each Way

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