11 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
1 Highlighted Bet



1 Highlighted Bet

Chester 5.20

DARK DEVIL 4/1

Each Way




Today's Message

Final message of the week

Took some time out last night
Overslept by 3 hours this am

Despite all that
More previews than yesterday
And a technically better message

So no idea what to expect today
But I think it's a superior message
And I put that down to one factor
Less intense day and less pressure
So hoping for some good results

Market Rasen 1.20
Market Rasen 1.50
Galway 2.15
Market Rasen 2.25
Chester 2.35
Galway 2.45
Deauville 2.47
Chester 3.10
Galway 3.20
Galway 3.55
Chester 5.20

Prix Maurice de Gheest today
Previewed that over in France
But Not a significant preview

The Message is a slow burner
Earlier races simply speculative
More playtime than anything else
Seeing if a few angles work out
May have done too many races

Only 2 races
Offered bets I could stake
These are previews 11 and 12
The last 2 races in the message


Galway 3.55

£4 Each Way RUFUS KING 7/1

£2 Win Bet SALTONSTALL 7/2

Calling this bet Dolly The Sheep
Because it is an absolute clone
Or yesterdays account bet winner
Same kind of race as that one
Very similar angles to that as well


Chester 5.20

DARK DEVIL 4/1

Each Way

This bet is simply summed up
As a disappointing underachiever
Who now looks a handicap snip
Ran in a similar races 6 days ago
Horrible draw and missed the kick
Stayed on well and could win soon

What will happen here
He will probably miss the kick
Have to sit and wait a bit
Stay on well late in the day
It could come down to traffic
So hearts may be in mouths


This is 12 messages in a row
So going to drop a day soon
Every chance that is tomorrow



Saturday's Summary

The main objective as achieved
Get the main account bet winner
Had a drought in recent Saturdays
Thankfully that has come to an end
This was a bit messy as a main bet
Not bothered now that he has won
MAKE A CHALLENGE won easily
With the saver bet running second

Changed my mind reasonably late
Warning Fire was the planned bet
But the drop from 8f-7f for this filly
With having Manduro as a damsire
Really put me off late so I changed
She raced very well from the front
But always hard to set the fractions
Results in the message either went
Several winners were a little short
I never thought it impressed much
But the main bet winning was vital
Stopped the Saturday rot thankfully
Meant sure we had a winning week
Making the 4 weekly bets W L L W
Always nice to kill a run on 2 losers
Especially after a long heavy week


PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Market Rasen 1.20

5/2 What Will Be, Whiskey And Water, 5/1 Lucou
11/2 Maria Magdalena, 8/1 Paricolor, 16/1 Andaleep
16/1 Gino Wotimean, 20/1 Fenjal, 33/1 Darwin Dream
33/1 Guardia Top, Inceyquincyspider, 40/1 Enyama
100/1 Maktay, Parker's Pride.

Juvenile Hurdle

Market leaders are similar types

WHISKEY AND WATER is the favourite
WHAT WILL BE is a possible burglary bet

Both similar types with 9 runs
Both have 2 hurdle runs
Both have 7 flat runs
Either could win this race

WHAT WILL BE has slightly better numbers
He also comes from a hurdle race
WHISKEY AND WATER does not
Last seen in a 12f maiden flat race
WHAT WILL BE may just be a safer bet
But I wanted to go each way at 5/2
Because there are some in this race
That look dark and hard to rule out
MARIA MAGDALENA is a filly
Fillies do badly but what that won
Were not unlike her so not ruled out
LUCOU showed ability in France
PARICOLOR also has French form

Do not feel safe in this race
Going to be a very defensive stake

Selection

WHAT WILL BE 5/2

Each Way





Market Rasen 1.50

7/4 Cotswold Prince, 2/1 Glan Y Gors, 7/1 Youracert
10/1 Aweeminit, Global Wonder, Scottsdale
16/1 Irska, 33/1 Avlos, 50/1 Dont Push It Pall, Real King
66/1 Charlotte Du Berry, 200/1 Luduamf.

2m Maiden Hurdle

COTSWOLD PRINCE is favourite
Not sure that is the right conclusion
His sires hurdle record is 0-15 so far
He has one respectable hurdle run
But he was 66/1 and 50/1 in 2 hurdle runs
COTSWOLD PRINCE also has 109 days off

GLAN Y GORS has the best numbers

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

117 Glan Y Gors - Glan Y Gors
115 Glan Y Gors - Glan Y Gors
112 Cotswold Prince - Glan Y Gors
107 Chapati
106 Glan Y Gors
97 Youracert
96 Chapati
94 Glan Y Gors
91 Irska
90 Aweeminit
89 Scottsdale
88 Scottsdale
87 Glan Y Gors
86 Aweeminit,

GLAN Y GORS is an exposed 7yo
There may be one or two improvers
But he has achieved the most of these

Selection


GLAN Y GORS 9/4

Win only if 9/4

Each Way if 5/2

Small stakes if win only
If he is available around 5/2
I'd be a bit braver each way



Galway 2.15

4/5 Ilikedwayurthinkin, 8/1 Dalton Highway
10/1 Ashqar, Broder, 14/1 Charle Brune, Empire Burleque
20/1 Mr Jacaranda, Peacocks Secret, Rock On Seamie
25/1 Antimatter, 25/1 Castlehume, 25/1 Dumhach Thra,
25/1 Imperial Choice, Our Brian, Shannon Hill, Zayriyan,
33/1 Back To Bataan, De Mazzaro, Motcomb Street
33/1 Paddy Buns.

2m 1f Handicap Hurdle

ILIKEDWAYURTHINKING won 4 days ago

He will win....if

1) He doesn't bounce
2) He copes with a 4f drop in trip 4 days later

Both legitimate concerns
As he won so easily 6 days ago
The Bounce is not my biggest worry
More the quick drop in distance

But his achievements
Demand he is on the shortlist
And I feel the split stake is the answer
Buy him out of the race

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet ILIKEDWAYURTHINKING 10/11

£2.50 Each Way ASHQAR 12/1-14/1




Market Rasen 2.25

2/1 Surrey Blaze, 3/1 Ray's The Money, 5/1 Carry On
11/2 Twasn't The Plan, 10/1 Black Noah
10/1 Returning Glory, 25/1 Dubai Mystery
33/1 Castleplunkett Kid 100/1 Max O, Princess Kodia.

Maiden Hurdle (2m)

The weakest link statistically
CARRY ON as a 4yo from a Bumper

June July August
Maiden Hurdles any distance
Horses aged 4
Coming from a bumper
Absent over 32 days
Return a 0-106 record
CARRY ON fails this 0-106 record

Even if we get him beaten
We still need to take a guess
RAY'S THE MONEY is a positive
Despite not running in 382 days
I can match him to a winner


Selection

Small Stakes

£6 Win Bet RAY'S THE MONEY 4/1

£4 Win Bet SURREY BLAZE 5/4 - 11/8




Chester 2.35

13/8 The New Marwan, 7/4 Breathalyze
2/1 Cognac, 50/1 Contract Kid, Mrs Tiffen
50/1 Thomas Hawk.

7f Novice

THE NEW MARWAN
Having the best figures
Significantlly more experience
Has to be bet in this race

There have been some doubts raised
About the ground and his stamina in it
That may or may not be an issue
COGNAC though is unraced
BREATHALYZE has raced just once
THE NEW MARWAN does have 4 runs
He has some decent figures as welll
I would take him with any flaws he has

Selection

THE NEW MARWAN 11/8

Win Bet




Galway 2.45

7/2 Poker D'ainay, 7/1 Goodnightngodbless
8/1 Bye Bye O Bye, Suinda, 10/1 Brogine, Polished Rock
12/1 An Fearchan, Spring Watch, Whatsyourstatus,
24/1 Young Dev, 14/1 Blottos, Kilkishen, Monbeg Chit Chat
16/1 Rovetta, 20/1 Ballyegan Hero, 20/1 Dawn Raider,
20/1 Helly Hansum, Kilbarry Lilly, 25/1 Chess Grand Master
33/1 Oh'herewego.

3m Handicap Hurdle

Nightmare of a race

Just following the angles
From the history of this race

Horses aged 5 are 0-15
Horses aged 10 + are 0-19

So I want a horse aged 6-7-8-9
Who fits the following demands
Of the previous types that won this

Between 10 and 22 lifetime runs
Between 8 and 17 Hurdle runs

This leaves the following shortlist

GOODNIGHTGODBLESS 7/1
BROGINE 11/1
WHATSYOURSTATUS 14/1
BLOTTOS 20/1

No selection
Would only be guessing anyway
But the above 4 horses
Are the best match to past winners




Deauville 2.47

3/1 Advertise 7/2 Polydream 7/1 One Master
7/1 Invincible Army 10/1 Space Blues 10/1 Le Brivido
10/1 Pretty Pollyanna 16/1 King Malpic 20/1 Brando
20/1 Fox Champion 25/1 So Perfect 40/1 Mr Lupton
40/1Spinning Memories 40/1 Munitions 66/1 Namos

Prix Maurice de Gheest

Group 1 for 2 year olds

Run over 6f 110y.

Horses aged 6 or more
Have won this only once in 27 years
I would avoid the older horses
BRANDO is rejected aged 7
KING MALPIC is rejected aged 6
MR LUPTON is rejected aged 6

POLYDREAM won this last season
Strong form chance but a bad draw

All recent winners were drawn 4-14
POLYDREAM is badly drawn in Stall 1

The last 10 renewals
Draw of the 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

First 4 in 2018 drawn 13 20 3 17
First 4 in 2017 drawn 12 8 13 9
First 4 in 2016 drawn 10 8 16 15
First 4 in 2015 drawn 4 6 7 8
First 4 in 2014 drawn 13 15 7 4
First 4 in 2013 drawn 11 9 1 10
First 4 in 2012 drawn 9 6 4 10
First 4 in 2011 drawn 12 5 4 11
First 4 in 2010 drawn 14 13 6 11
First 4 in 2009 drawn 7 10 9 4
First 4 in 2018 drawn 14 5 16 6

ONE MASTER is a mare
Down from 8f to only 6.5f
That may help but stall 2 wont

SPACE BLUES is drawn 3
Not a good draw but respected
Improving and hitting big numbers

PRETTY POLLYANA is a filly
She's running well in 3 runs this year
FOX CHAMPION needs to improve

LE BRIVIDO has a good draw
Horse gets a lot of criticism
Don't think he deserves half of it
Disadvantaged last time down 2f
This trip and ground could be ideal

ADVERTISE has the ability
Good draw and in form as well
Biggest concern his short price

INVINCIBLE ARMY won last time
Did a Racing Post Rating of 121 then
Easily the best last time out numbers
Wouldn't have minded a higher draw


Selection

£4 Each Way LE BRIVIDO 10/1

£1 Win Bet INVINCIBLE ARMY 8/1

£1 Win Bet SPACE BLUES 9/1




Chester 3.10

6/4 Major Jumbo, 4/1 Vintage Brut, 6/1 Gold Filigree
7/1 Miss Celestial, 9/1 Angel Alexander, 14/1 Merhoob
14/1 Rock On Baileys, 20/1 Stay Classy, 33/1 Reflektor
33/1 Yolo Again

Queensferry Stakes
Listed race over 6f

MAJOR JUMBO is a 5yo
He is the highest rated horse
He was 2nd in this race last year
When the only horse coming from 5f
He should be able to take this race

VINTAGE BRUT is a 3yo
Horses aged 3 are 3-49
None have won when it was softer

Horses aged 3 with 10 or more starts
Have a 0-25 record in past renewals
VINTAGE BRUT fails this with 13 runs
His last 2 runs nowhere near enough
He also has a nasty 57 day absence

ANGEL ALEXANDER is a 3yo
Career best Racing Post Rating of 105
Major Jumbo beats that every run now
He is also stuck out wide in Stall 9
Every Queensferry winner since 1997
Came from lower stalls that that
MERHOOB is rejected drawn 10

ROCK ON BAILEYS is 0-8 in this class
His best numbers may not be enough
GOLD FILIGREE has similar concerns

MISS CELESTIAL is a 3yo filly
Despite 7 runs and just 2 this year
She is far from out of this
Not unlike the 1997 winner of the race
She could be the one I'd worried about

MAJOR JUMBO is the selection
Offers more and I think he should win

MISS CELESTIAL is there as a saver
If anyone wants that either win or place

Selection

MAJOR JUMBO 11/8

Win Bet




Galway 3.20

11/4 Potala Palace, 7/2 Raven's Cry, 5/1 Mensen Ernst
15/2 Borelli, 8/1 The Truant, 10/1 Natural Power,
14/1 Bigz Belief, Helvic Dream, 20/1 Jm Barrie,
20/1 Troop Commander, 25/1 Gunmetal Jack
33/1 At War, 50/1 Majeski Man, Spiritual Son.

7f Maiden

Looks quite difficult

Not sure these draw stats will work
But they bring some interest to the race

Galway 7f races
Horses aged 2
Drawn in stall 13 or more are 0-11

Galway 7f races
Horses with under 7 runs
Drawn in stall 12 or more are 0-34
Drawn in stall 13 or more are 0-40

RAVENS CRY fails the above
MENSEN ERNST fails the above

BORELLI passes the above
But concerned about his stamina
Not convinced he will stay that well

The 3 horses above
Are the 2nd 3rd 4th favourites

Whilst not comfortable with this
Going to bet the favourite each way

Selection

POTALA PALACE 11/4

Each Way




Galway 3.55

7/2 Saltonstall, 7/1 Certain Lad, Turnberry Isle
8/1 Quizical, Rufus King, 17/2 Above The Rest
9/1 Marshall Jennings, 12/1 Magical Wish, On A Session
14/1 Madam Seamstress, 16/1 Katiymann, Magnetic North
20/1 Master Speaker, 25/1 Apex King, Insignia Of Rank,
25/1 Laughifuwant.

7f Handicap

Yesterdays account bet winner

Ran in a very similar races
With extremely similar issues

Horses that ran within 6 days
Especially those that have already run
In one of the Galway races this week
Have a brilliant record in this race
The following statistics will hopefully
Unlock the door to the race

Horses aged 3 are 0-14 in this
Horses aged 4 are 1-33 in this

Older Horses are better

Horses that ran within 6 days are 7-39
Horses absent more than 6 days 2-87

Combine horses aged 4 or more
Who ran within the last 7 days
Beaten under 4 lengths last time
You find a brilliant 7-12 record

The following horses
Share this 7-12 profile

MARSHALL JENNINGS 25/1
MAGNETIC NORTH 25/1
QUIZZICAL 8/1
RUFUS KING 7/1
SALTONSTALL 7/2


MARSHALL JENNINGS is drawn 19
So not going to entertain that draw

Yesterday I sent a draw angle

7f Galway races
Horses aged 2-3-4
More than 7 career starts
Drawn in stall 9 or more
Have a horrible 0-103 record
MAGNETIC NORTH fails this
QUIZZICAL fails this

Shortlist

RUFUS KING 7/1
SALTONSTALL 7/2

Selection

£4 Each Way RUFUS KING 7/1

£2 Win Bet SALTONSTALL 100/30



Chester 5.20

4/1 Scofflaw, 9/2 Dark Devil, 6/1 Bell Heather
7/1 Heart Of Soul, Redgrave, 8/1 Manfadh,
8/1 Nightingale Valley, 12/1 Confrontational
16/1 Parole, 16/1 Tough Remedy
40/1 Bold Statement.

10f Handicap

Some of these have issues

BELL HEATHER is going up 3f in trip
HEART OF SOUL is coming down 3f
Both only have short 8 day absences
Both were hammered in those races
Neither of then matchable to winners

NIGHTINGALE VALLEY is rejected
Bad draw and is very unlikely to stay
PAROLE is a 7yo absent 408 days
BOLD STATEMENT is outclassed

REDGRAVE ran 3 days ago
Which makes him interesting
He was beaten 5 lengths in that race
He looks well treated to me
But he has not proven his stamina
His biggest problem may be stall 1
Usually held up and if that happens
He could find traffic problems later

CONFRONTATIONAL has issues
He combines the widest draw in 11
With one of the longest absences
And also has to step up in distance

MANFADH is a lightly raced 4yo
He has recently moved stables
If that improves him not ruled out

TOUGH REMEDY is topweight
Hasn't been running to his best
But he is dropping nicely in the weights
Sires stats on soft would concern me
None so far have won past a mile

SCOFFLAW is up in distance
Never raced over this far before
If he stays he could easily win
But 10f on soft ground from that sire
Would make me think twice about him
When drawn wide over an extended 10f

DARK DEVIL ran in this race last year
Creditable 3th place off a rating of 80
Having missed the break that day too

Whilst his trainer says "Disappointing"
He now runs in the same race off 66
DARK DEVIL is a stone lower than 2018
3 of his 5 best numbers come at Chester

One of those horses
When your confident starts to increase
It simmers not boils over mainly because
He has several times failed to deliver
That said he is very well handicapped

SELECTION

DARK DEVIL 4/1

Each Way

***************************************************
***************************************************