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Highlighted Bet


Tipperary 2.35

£7.50 Win Bet REBEL ORG 11/4

£2.50 Win Bet DIME A DOZEN 100/30

Not my first choice of staking
That was Rebel Og each way
But her odds have shortened
Could stake each way at 11/4
Feel that is the better option
But it would not suit everyone
So instead staking it this way



Today's Message

Been a good weekend
Start of a fresh week now
Will be dropping a day this week
Not sure when that should be

Pontefract has been abandoned
Which has left me just 5 previews

Tipperary 2.35
Stratford 2.50
Windsor 2.40
Windsor 5.10
Newcastle 6.30

The last preview

A 2yo maiden on the sand tonight

Newcastle 6.30

SAINT OF KATOWICE 7/2 - 4/1

Each Way

Lot of interesting angles in this
There has been a serious gamble
On an unraced 2yo in the race
One that may just have some flaws
My horse would have been favourite
Yet is available now at twice the price
But with no control over the market
On a 2yo that may be 4/1 or 6/4 later
Would not be a suitable race to stake

Tipperary 2.35

£7.50 Win Bet REBEL ORG 11/4

£2.50 Win Bet DIME A DOZEN 100/30

Plan A
Rebel Of each way as the main bet
But the price has been annoyingly cut
So decided to have win + saver
We have Willie Mullins onside
The favourite looks on the bounce
Overall seemed a sensible bet


Windsor 5.10

SMOKEY LANE 9/2

Each Way

Amateur Riders handicap
Always get good angles in these
Not won for a long time now
But fit with serious backclass
He is a bit quirky and unreliable
Not sure how far I can trust him
But on profiles should go close

The only one of these
Suitable for the main account
Would be SMOKEY LANE 9/2

But with bets like him
Watching him on video recently
I like to feel the spine tingle a bit
I didn't feel that watching his runs

REBEL OG may be the best bet

The Racing Post are critical
Didn't feel last run was encouraging
I was a bit more positive about that
He did improve him numbers that day
And he must improve at this 2m 4f trip




Sunday's Review

Following up from Saturday
We had another winning bet
This time it was highlighted
Went for an each way double
SUNCHART won by 4 lengths
KAIZER won easily 15 lengths
Never the most popular bet
But it produced a 7/2 winner
If obtaining the earlier prices
Some good overall analysis
France being the exception
Soft ground shockers there
We did more right than wrong
Overall pleased with the day



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Tipperary 2.35

3/1 Lill Smith, 4/1 Rebel Og, 5/1 Dime A Dozen
6/1 Flicker Flame, 10/1 Direct Image, Imperial View
12/1 The Girl That Sang, 14/1 Elizabeth J, 20/1 High Viz
20/1 Ronnoco Katie, 25/1 Annual Flavour, Global Equity
33/1 Askmenow, Le River Noir, 33/1 Queen Of Fame
33/1 She Might, 50/1 Anjilina, Our Majella, Traidisiun.

Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

Not many will be capable of winning
Some assumptions need to be made

LILL SMITH's profile worries me
She recently had 8 months off
She came back only 7 days ago
Good run but it comes very quickly
Could be a candidate for bouncing
IMPERIAL VIEW is a 4yo
With just 1 career start to her name
She may find some of these too warm
DIRECT IMAGE is an unraced 6yo
Too risky without any experience
ELIZABETH J has the same problem
GLOBAL EQUITY only an unraced 4yo
FLICKER FLAME has no hurdle form
THE GIRL THAT SANG has bumper form

Shortlist

DIME A DOZEN 100/30
REBEL ORG 7/2

Both have safe profiles
REBEL ORG has an extra hurdle run
Has fewer stamina doubts as well

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet REBEL ORG 11/4

£2.50 Win Bet DIME A DOZEN 100/30





Windsor 2.40

5/2 Bottom Bay, 11/4 Back From Dubai, 6/1 Arij
13/2 Tinnahalla, 10/1 Elham Valley, 11/1 Mr Rusty
12/1 Alargedram, Spring To Mind, 20/1 Isayalittleprayer
25/1 Bannister, Vintage Rascal, 100/1 Arthalot
100/1 Ginger Box, Majestyk Fire.

2yo Novice (8f)

MR RUSTY is sired by Zebedee
This sires runners over 8f +
When having under 3 career runs
Have a miserable 1-01 record
He also has a horrible draw

Windsor 8f races here
Since 2011
Unraced horses
Drawn in Stall 7 or higher
Have a poor 1-127 record
MR RUSTY drawn 13 fails this

BACK FROM THE DEAD is unraced
Drawn 11 he fails the same 1-127 angle
He has to prove he can stay this far
His sire Exceed and Excel in a long career
Has yet to sire an unraced winner over 8f +
Not a safe choice with 2 strikes against him
The record of high draw debutants
The lack of evidence from his sire

ELHAM VALLEY also fails this
Unraced drawn in stall 13

SPRING TO MIND is an unraced filly
May be asking too much on the ground

Possibles

ALARGEDRAM is not ruled out
But very little market support
On his 3rd run for a handicap rating
Smells wrong but if things changed
He would be interesting if backed

ARIJ is unraced with a low draw
Could pop up but asking a lot
None of the sires unraced winners
Have won over as far as this

BOTTOM BAY has a good chance
Enough to get on the staking plan

TINAHALLA is a positive
He has plenty to prove though
Never run over 8f or on soft
But he is not short of ability

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet TINAHALLA 7/1-8/1-9/1

£4.00 Saver BOTTOM BAY 7/4




Stratford 2.50

4/5 Maire Banrigh, 5/1 Flight To Milan
13/2 Rizzardo, 9/1 Song Of The Sky, Wenceslaus
11/1 Strictlyadancer.

Novice Handicap Chase 2m 1f

MAIRE BANRIGH

She is a short priced favourite

She is a mare
She has never jumped a fence
She has 12st 6lbs and topweight
She only has 4 career starts
Not to mention 347 days off

She may well win
But her price is far too low
Her trainers reputation the reason

Novice Handicap Chases
2m 6f and shorter
Any time of year

Mares aged 7 or more
Chasing debuts
Under 15 career starts
Absent more than 3 months
Have a 0-61 record in them

She may win
But that looks a difficult challenge
Finding the right alternative
Will requite a guess
STRICTLYADANCER is a 5yo
No Chasing experience
Might want further than this
WENCESLAUS a chasing debutant
The most exposed hurdler in the race
None won like him absent as long

Decided to play it this way

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet SONG OF THE SKY 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet FIGHT TO MILAN 7/1




Windsor 5.10

5/1 Smokey Lane, 11/2 Bahuta Acha, Stay Forever
6/1 Secondo, 13/2 Lalania, 15/2 Mercers, 9/1 Arctic Flower
12/1 Aegean Mist, 14/1 Sovereign State, 20/1 Just An Idea
20/1 Mama Africa, Who Told Jo Jo, 25/1 Ocean Temptress.

6f Amateur Riders race

This race is only open to Amateurs
With limited wins so far in their career

Looking in these race
For certain important principles
Fitness
Experience
Recent and decent runs
No obvious flaws in profile

August to December
There has been 11 of these races
All 11 winners ran within 22 days

Horses absent longer than 22 days
Have a 0-32 record in these races

This race has 13 runners
Over half the field have absences

OCEAN TEMPRESS- Lacks class 55 days off
MAMA AFRICA - Exposed mare absent 68 days
SOVEREIGN STATE has 62 days off
Wont have the class or stamina to take this

STAR FOREVER a 3yo filly
Not for me absent 54 days

Amateur riders Handicaps
Run over 6f and more
Any time of year since 2007
Fillies aged 3
More than 8 career starts
Absent more than 24 days
Have a 0-40 record in them
STAY FOREVER fails this 0-40 angle
AEGEAN MIST fails this 0-40 angle

AEGEAN MIST is absent 45 days
Her rider has only ridden in 2 previous races

MERCERS is an exposed mare
Not keen on her with 48 days off
This is not a trainer who gets them fit easily

Horses trained by Paddy Butler
Running on the Flat
Absent 40 days and longer
Have a horrible 2-271 record
Those running under 10 furlongs
Have a very poor 0-158 career record
MERCERS may not have the fitness

SECONDO has 46 days off
Over twice as long as all similar winners
Not helpful that he is a 9 year old either
He has very little soft ground form

WHO TOLD YOU ran 7 days ago
Beaten too far and only 1 run in 88 days
JUST AN IDEA has low numbers
Ridden by an inexperienced jockey

ARCTIC FLOWER is a 6yo mare
Runs frequently and a fit profile
Finished last on her previous 2 runs
There were excuses for those runs
But she has never won short of 7f (0-11)
Never won beyond August (0-20)
Having had 49 career starts now
Her career best Racing Post Rating of 66
Does not set a very high standard

BAHUTA ACHA has 58 days off
Not at all keen on his absence
But he has plenty of backclass
And has decent 6f soft numbers
Nearly made the shortlist on that
Not from a trainer with a good record
With horses that have absences

Shortlist

LALANIA is a 4yo filly
Good jockey and has the ability
Main concern must be the ground
Her 2yo debut was on Good-Soft
Never been on it since then in 16 runs
Looks well treated and may still handle it

SMOKEY LANE is fit and running well
Has lost all 27 times since May 2017
But she has significant backclass

Selection

SMOKEY LANE 9/2-5/1

Each Way





Newcastle 6.30

9/4 Saint Of Katowice, 6/1 Dandy's Angel,
7/1 Hajey Villa Paloma, 7/1 High Accolade, 8/1 Reggino
14/1 Itwouldberudenotto, 16/1 Secret Diary
20/1 Charmore, La Trinidad, 33/1 Bouncing Bobby.

7f Maiden

HIGH ACCOLADE

Heavily backed
Trading as I type at 13/8
Obviously been working well
But there are flaws in his profile

Find his trainer underachieving
But his stamina and draw bothers me

Newcastle
Unraced 2 year olds
Since the track opened
Drawn in stall 10 or higher
Have a 1-48 record at any distance
That sole winner won over 6f
None have won over 7f or more
Drawn that high on their debuts
HIGH ACCOLADE is drawn 11 of 111

Lots of speed in the pedigree
The sires debutant record is 1-28
That winner came over a shorter trip

Horses sired by Outstrip
Running over 7f or more
With under 4 career starts
Have a 0-27 record so far
HIGH ACCOLADE fails this

He may win
But not a gamble I will follow
With draw and stamina doubts
When also having his debut

VILLA PALOMA is an unraced filly
Chances are she wont have enough
REGGINO has 2 runs
Needs to improve to win
Looking at the stamina in her pedigree
The drop from 8f to 7f looks questionable
He may be here for a handicap mark

DADNY'S ANGEL has 2 runs
Has a form chance if getting home
But he is trained by John Wainwright

John Wainwright
Record since 2017
233 runners
No winners

He has a 0-233 record since then
Hasn't trained a 2yo winner in 12 years
Might win but far too risky to trust her

HAJEY is unraced
Decent connections
No surprise if she wins
But the market is not shouting him

SAINT OF KATOWICE

He was the 9/4 Paper favourite
Now Available to bet at 7/2-4/1
Thats because of the gamble

Not my favourite trainer
His last run was below par
But it was a Newmarket nursery
Can't be sure he will run his race
But feel we have obvious negatives
And he does have the best numbers

Selection

SAINT OF KATOWICE 7/2 - 4/1

Each Way



Future Betting Angles


Man City 0-2 Wolves

Another City disaster yesterday
I was obviously far too premature
Discussing our future strategies
That is the second wipe out now
It has put this bet under pressure

Current Balance

Bet 1 - £60.00
Bet 2 - £40.00

Beautiful the name of this bet
Many will see that as badly named
Don't count myself amongst them
But I was expecting much better
Did not factor in Man City's form
Too early to know how this will go

Premier League Betting

Liverpool 4/6
Manchester City 6/4

Liverpool now favourites
Having gone 8 points clear

International Break next week
Comes at a good time for a rest



Ante Post Statistics

Saturday October 12th

Newmarket 4.10

Cesarewitch Stakes

Buildmeupbuttercup 6/1 Land of Oz 10/1
Timoshenko 10/1 Barbados 12/1 Great White Shark 12/1
Ranch Hand 16/1 Sneaky Getaway 16/1 Time To Study 16/1
Western Australia 16/1 Cleonte 20/1 Coeur de Lion 20/1
Distant Chimes 20/1 Dubawi Fifty 20/1 Eddystone Rock 20/1
Eminence 20/1 South Sea Pearl 20/1 Themaxwecan 20/1
Stratum 20/1 True Destiny 20/1 Carnwennan 25/1
Cypress Creek 25/1 Il Paradiso 25/1 Mr Everest 25/1
Party Playboy 25/1 Royal Illusion 25/1 Saroog 25/1
Spirit Ridge 25/1 War Diary 25/1 Who Dares Wins 25/1
Coeur Blimey 33/1 Garbanzo 33/1 Graceful Lady 33/1
Great Trango 33/1 Legal Spin 33/1 Nessun Dorma 33/1
Seinesational 33/1 Newcross 33/1 Rainbow Dreamer 33/1
Billy Ray 33/1 Rochester House 33/1 Shakespear'sgalley 33/1
Buckman Tavern 40/1 Sovereign Duke Not So Sleepy 50/1
Astromachia 66/1 Brazos 66/1 Darksideoftarnside 66/1
Hermoso Mundo 66/1 Matchmaking 66/1 Quloob 66/1
Nuits St Georges 66/1 Summer Moon 66/1 Alfredo 100/1
General Zoff 100/1 Grenadier Guard 100/1
Trouble And Strife 100/1

Not a big fan of this race

Only have to see recent years
Winners at 66/1 50/1 66/1 25/1 16/1
Unlikely to be a key race for us

Just getting it out of the way now
Wait and see if the situation changes

The last 8 winners

Horses Aged 4-5-6-7-8
Rated 84 or higher
At least 8 career starts
At least 13 runs if a 4yo
Coming from a Flat race
Coming from Class 3 or higher
Running between 11f-18f last time
Either a Filly aged 4 or a gelding
Beaten under 18 lengths last time
At least 3 runs this season
Form in Class 2 or higher

Not the most convincing of angles
There will be a big shortlist survive

In terms of the draw
Horses drawn 24 or higher
Have a poor 1-62 record since 2011

May come back to the race later on
But unlikely to be a race to focus on




Ante Post Statistics

Sunday October 13th

Limerick 4.35

Munster National

Handicap Chase

Snugsborough Benny 5/1 Alpha Des Obeaux 8/1
Black Scorpion 8/1 Cabaret Queen 8/1 Movewiththetimes 8/1
Dinons 10/1 Ask Susan 12/1 Internal Transfer 12/1
Spider Web 12/1 Na Trachtalai Abu 14/1 Yorkhill 14/1
Conrad Hastings 16/1 Mindsmadeup 16/1 Some Neck 16/1
The Big Lense 16/1 The West's Awake 16/1 Full Cry 20/1
Ministerforsport 20/1 Nambour 20/1 Riviera Sun 20/1
Timiyan 20/1 Westland Row 20/1 Drumcliff 25/1
Freewheelin Dylan 25/1 Gwencily Berbas 25/1
Kilkishen 25/1 Progress Drive 25/1 Static Jack 25/1
Oscar Knight 33/1 Aranhill Chief 40/1 Lilshane 50/1

Snapshot of past winners

2018 - 7 Year old with 10 Chases
2017 - 8 Year old with 6 Chases
2016 - 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2015 - 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2014 - 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2013 - 7 Year old with 13 Chases
2012 - 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2011 - 8 Year old with 3 Chases
2010 - 8 Year old with 12 Chases
2009 - 8 Year old with 5 Chases
2008 - 6 Year old with 5 Chases
2007 - 7 Year old with 5 Chases

Horses aged 6-7-8 dominate
When having 3-13 Chase runs

Every past winner since 2007
Had that basic winning profile

This will be a Target race

Will be covering this regularly

Not much I can do today

One of the biggest issues
The Weights and if they rise
Look at the 3 highest weights

11st 10lbs Alpha Des Obeaux
11st 3lbs Yorhill
10st 12lbs Snugsborough Benny

Alpha Des Obeaux
Dominates the weights right now
Depending of whether he runs
The weights could rise 7lbs or 12lbs

Need to see how that plays out
But this will be a major target race
Which will be next Sundays big race

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