7 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
1 Highlighted Bet



Highlighted Bet

York 4.05

GARRUS 7/2 - 4/1

Each Way



Betting The Message

Second day of York
Similar message to yesterday
York had the upper hand then
We did better at the other tracks

Looked very fast ground to me
I had planned a bet in F.B.Angles
That is cancelled explained later

7 Races

York 1.50
York 3.00
York 3.35
York 4.05
Salisbury 5.25
Newmarket 5.45
Newmarket 7.30

3 options today

All 3 each way around 4/1

Salisbury 5.25 - Marshal Dan 4/1 Each Way

York 4.05 - Garrus 7/2 - 4/1 Each Way

Newmarket 5.45 4/1 Apollinaire

MARSHAL DAN looks solid
But Salisbury is not a safe track
Strange things can happen there
And it is an Apprentice Riders race

APOLLINAIRE looks fascinating
He is sensible pragmatic selection
But I can't really go with a maiden
The market is just far too unstable
He could end up 2/1 or 8/1 later on
And more likely to place than win

GARRUS chosen as the bet
The race seems reasonably friendly
His last run should be good enough




Wednesday's Summary

Covered 8 races yesterday
Finishing L W L W L L W P
Got plenty right and wrong
We struggled more at York
No surprise with big fields
Got only one York race right
Elsewhere we went W W P
The lesson there is obvious
York is tough and dangerous
Bookmakers want us there
We should cover other cards
Did not have any staked bets
My nominated best bet won
I'd say we were competitive
Did enough to hold our own


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


York 1.50

9/1 Saaheq, 10/1 Copper Knight, 10/1 Cowboy Soldier
10/1 Dark Shot, 12/1 Abel Handy, 14/1 Fairy Falcon
14/1 Line Of Reason, Open Wide, 14/1Tommy Taylor
16/1 Fendale, Foolaad, Poyle Vinnie, Royal Birth
20/1 Eeh Bah Gum, Harome, 20/1 Justanotherbottle,
20/1 Powerallied, 25/1 Outrage, 33/1 Henley
33/1 Marnie James, Orvar, Quick Look.

5f Handicap
11 past renewals
40 similar races in May

Quality race and wide open
Steer clear of the high draws
Horses drawn in stall 17 or higher
Underperform in these races

If you go back 20 years
All 5f races run at York
Horses drawn 17 or higher
Absent more than 19 days
Have a 0-81 record since 1998

ROYAL BIRTH drawn 22 fails this
OUTRAGE and POWERALLIED fail it
EEH BAH GUM has the same problem
LINE OF REASON a badly drawn 9yo

Not a good race for 4 year olds
Horses aged 4 are 1-36 in this race
FAIRY FALCON is a 4yo first time out
Go back to 2006 and every 5f race here
Horses aged 4 drawn 13 or more
Have a 0-63 record in the last 12 years
FAIRY FALCON fails this angle
MARNIE JAMES is rejected aged 4

QUICK LOOK isn't running well
HAROME's numbers and too low
ORVAR will need a career best
Having raced just once in 84 days
HENLEYS numbers are too low

The winner usually has a recent run
10 of the 11 winners ran within 54 days

JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE has 236 days off
Won't be easy as second in the weights
FENDALE has 77 days absence

POYLE VINNIE has a recent win
But he is a 9 year old in a Class 2 race
Stall 16 is probably going to stop him

Go back 20 years at York over 5f
No 9yo has won drawn 12 or higher (0-38)
No 8yo has won drawn 16 or higher (0-27)
POYLE VINNIE fails this aged 9 drawn 16
FOOLAD is rejected aged 8 drawn 17

SAAHEQ won last time out
Thatw as 26 days ago now though
Stall 1 would be my concern

York 5f races
11 or more runners
Since 1999
Horses drawn 1
Have a modest 3-118 record
Those aged 5 or older are 0-54
Those absent 20 + days are 0-53
SAAHEQ has both angles to overcome

Shortlist

COWBOY SOLDIER is a 4yo
Horses aged 4 are 1-36 in this race
Not the best age but has positives
Would not rule him out on that age stat

ABEL HANDY another 4yo
Similar comments apply to him
Won last time but a harder task here
Not rule out just because of his age

TOMMY TAYLOR has a chance
But hardly any 5f form
His only run under 6f was an extended 5f

OPEN WIDE has 2 recent runs
Helpful but unproven in this class

DARK SHOT was 2nd last year
When a seasonal debutant drawn 1
He is lower in the weights this year
But has not won since his 3yo days

COPPER KNIGHT has 2 recent runs
Comes from the best trial race as well
He too ran in this last year as a debutant
COPPER KNIGHT appealed most
He has 2 runs since April 20th
No other horse under 66/1 has that
He has a very recent race
Returns much quicker than his dangers
If you look at his last run
Racing Post Rating of 105
Thats 5lbs better than his handicap mark
And 4lbs better than every other runner

Selection

£4 Each Way COPPER KNIGHT 10/1

£1 Win Bet TOMMY TAYLOR 9/1

£1 Win Bet COWBOY SOLDIER 8/1





York 3.00

6/4 Too Darn Hot, 4/1 Japan, 5/1 Surfman
6/1 Telecaster, 7/1 Line of Duty, 20/1 Almania
20/1 Nayef Road, 33/1 Turgenev.

Dante Stakes

Can not sort this with statistics
Serious test for some of these
TOO DARN HOT the champion 2yo
Has his comeback run after a setback
Many have said he may lack some scope
Will be fascinating to see how he runs
JAPAN another who had a setback
Aidan O'Brien hopes to run him at Epsom
Either course could win or run badly
JAPAN may find it hard to win this
Don't feel drawn to his chance much
TOO DARN HOT could be a saver bet
But that would be the limit of my stake
Should be a very informative race
But there are too many question marks
This is my guess in a race requiring one

Selection

£6 Win Bet LINE OF DUTY 7/1

£4 Win Bet TOO DARN HOT 11/8




York 3.35

6/1 Beringer, 7/1 Hortzadar, 9/1 Mutafani
11/1 Love Dreams, 12/1 Just Hiss, What's The Story
14/1 Hayadh, Plutonian, Waarif, 16/1 Bless Him
16/1 Commander Han, Escobar, 20/1 Firmament
25/1 Donncha, Mikmak, Ulshaw Bridge, 33/1 Tricorn.

8f Handicap

Rarely do this race
The distance changed recently
It was also moved down a Grade
So have never trusted my angles

Opposing these horses
For the given reasons

Badly Drawn
WAARIF - HORTZADAR

Lack of recent achievement
FIRMAMENT - MIKMAK
JUST HISS - ESCOBAR - TRICORN

Horses from 7f struggle
LOVE DREAMS - WHATS THE STORY

Absences
DONNCHA - ULSHAW BRIDGE - BLESS HIM

Weight - PLUTONIUM

Shortlist

BERINGER
HAYADH
MUTAFANI
COMMANDER HAN

Selection

£8 Win Bet MUTAFANI 11/2

£2 Win Bet BERINGER 5/1




York 4.05

13/8 Soldier's Call, 4/1 Garrus, 11/2 No Nonsense
13/2 Semoum, 7/1 Shades Of Blue, 9/1 Well Done Fox
16/1 Charming Kid, 33/1 Broken Spear, Deia Glory.

5f Listed race

Lightly raced horses dominate
You ideally want under 9 races
Broken Spear and Deia Glory fail this
They are more exposed than ideal
WELL DONE FOX has 11 career runs
More exposed than previous winners

SOLDIERS CALL has 8 runs
Thats about the limit I would expect
But when you consider other factors
Such as him being a seasonal debutant
And having to carry a Group 2 penalty
It will not be easy for him to win this
Despite being the highest rated horse
I'd be looking each way against him

CHARMING KID doesn't offer enough
SHADES OF BLUE has a chance
But last time out Racing post Ratings
Suggest he needs a lot of improvement

Shortlist

SEMOUM has upgraded stables
Could go well if avoids the bounce

NO NONESENSE has runs this year
But has never raced over 5f before

GARRUS won on his seasonal debut
Put in the best recent figure in the race
Rather bet him each way
Than a favourite with time off + penalties

Selection

GARRUS 4/1

Each Way




Salisbury 5.25

4/1 Marshal Dan, 5/1 Fieldsman, 5/1 Crystal Casque
6/1 Tamerlane, 7/1 Angel Islington, 8/1 N Over J
12/1 Creek Harbour, Good Luck Charm, Hedging,
20/1 Magical Ride

7f Handicap
Apprentice riders
12 Past renewals

Safest profile

Recent race
11 or more runs
2 + runs this season
Coming from 7f +

11 of the winners
Ran in the previous few weeks
ANGEL ISLINGTON does not
She has the longest absence
She has topweight and just 6 runs

Horses with under 11 career runs
Have a 0-27 record in past renewals
TAMERLANE has similar problems
Just 7 runs and 77 days off the track
Has ability and may well win the race
But no past winner was similar to him

MAGICAL RIDE only has 3 career runs
When every winner had at least 11

HEDGING has 1 run this season
I would prefer a horse with at least 2
He did not do enough for me on that run
GOOD LUCK CHARM may want another run
He is a 10yo with 1 run in Months

Most past winners
Had at least a couple of recent runs
Some of these leave me nervous

FIELDSMAN may be underraced
He is a 7yo with 1 run in 155 days

N OVER J may be underraced
He is a 4yo with 1 run in 160 days

CREEK HARBOUR is not safe enough
His numbers are worryingly low
His Jockey is having his first race

CRYSTAL CASQUE has positives
But also has some negatives too
May not be drawn very well
He is also the only horse up in trip
Horses from 6f races like her are 0-21
His Jockeys never ridden a winner

MARSHAL DAN appeals most

I wanted a run within 3 weeks
But giving him the benefit of the doubt
Don't have a big problem with 33 days
When he has twice raced this season
Racing Post Ratings of 75 - 76 in them
Are the best numbers in this race

Selection

MARSHAL DAN 4/1

Each Way




Newmarket 5.45

9/2 Pitchcombe, 5/1 Gallaside, 6/1 Apollinaire
8/1 What A Business, 10/1 Grove Ferry, Hamish Macbeth
14/1 Little Bird, 14/1 London Calling, 14/1 Red Maharani
16/1 Amber Road, 16/1 Jungle Book, 20/1 Fair Warning
20/1 Goddess Of Fire, Sparkling Diamond, 25/1 Broughtons Gold
33/1 Dancinginthewoods, 33/1 Dark Side Division
50/1 Dover Light, Hot Date, 100/1 Lily Bonnette.

2yo Novice over 6f

20 runners
14 unraced horses

Can't know enough here
But there could be a sneaky bet

APOLLINAIRE has experience
That has to be a help in a huge field

Look at the 3 Past renewals
All 3 winners had experience
They had 1 1 2 career races
They all came from 5f races
They had absences of 16 11 16 days

My view
There are 2 options here
One is No Bet
That always tempts me most

APOLLINAIRE each way
On the grounds of experience
Looks the other percentage bet

I've looked at 6f races
Run on the Rowley Mile
Any time of year
To see where the unraced horses
Were drawn in all similar races
I found something surprising

Newmarket Rowley Mile
6f races
Since 2011
Unraced horses
Have a 12-204 record

But none of these have won
In fields of 13 or more
In races with 13 or more
All 55 unraced horses were beaten

That stat could go at any time

But GALLASIDE is unraced drawn 14
HAMISH MACBETH unraced drawn 12
GROVER FERRY is unraced drawn 17
Any of these or any others could win

But a better drawn experienced horse
Should have some sort of advantage

Newmarket 6f Novice Races
Run in May
Since 2010

11 races
11 winners all had experience
Unraced horses were 0-45
Which leads me to this selection

Selection

APOLLINAIRE 4/1

Each Way



Newmarket 7.30

7/4 Albadr, 3/1 Apparate, 4/1 Dilmun Dynasty
6/1 Harrovian, 9/1 Youarestar, 16/1 Mr Carpenter
20/1 Crystal Tribe, 25/1 Carleen, Triple Genius
66/1 Noble Account, 100/1 Best Haaf.

10f Maiden

ALBADR is unraced
Sexy connections and smells smart
But he is not certain to stay this far
Not on his pedigree and first time out

APPARATE has raced twice
Dropping down from a 12f race
His profile unusual but passed as ok

Much depends on other unraced types
DILMUM DYNASTY could need the run
Maybe not but many of his trainers 3yo's
Often tend to need the run on debuts
HARROVIAM is unraced
Stablemate of the favourite
He could be the second string

APPARATE has a strong stable
The Draw would worry me here
Drawn 11 of 11 is not a safe draw
But he does have some experience
He was odds on in his previous race
And could well outstay Albadr

Selection

APPARATE

Each Way if 5/2

Win Bet if 9/4 or less




FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


1) Ante Post Bet Cancelled
2) Coronation Cup
3) Some Quick Updates
4) Eurovision Song Contest


Ante Post Bet Cancelled

Apologies for this
But it was out of my control
I will tell you what this was


Saturday May 31st

Epsom - Coronation Cup

Kew Gardens 5/1

Each Way

I had the analysis typed up
Then news came through
Shortly after 1pm yesterday

Enable the odds on favourite
Had pulled out of the race

Kew Gardens who was 5/1
Shortened to top price 5/2

Would not worry me
Betting him each way at 5/2
But only Bet365 offer this



Coronation Cup

2/1 Kew Gardens 3/1 Magical 6/1 Lah Ti Dar
8/1 Salouen 10/1 Morando 14/1 Coronet
14/1 Young Rascal 16/1 Stradivarius 16/1 Defoe
20/1 Capri 20/1 Communique 25/1 Flag Of Honour
25/1 Mildenberger 25/1 Marmelo 33/1 Southern France
66/1 Hunting Horn Cypress Creek 66/1 Red Verdon

My Preview is now ruined

Kew Gardens the planned bet

But things changed yesterday

ENABLE is not missing the race

Waldgeist the Andre Fabre raider
Also withdrew from this race
Wanted to oppose him anyway

There were several other horses
That I felt were unlikely to run here

LAH TI DAR runs today at York
Not certain to be running in this
15 days after her seasonal debut

MAGICAL is not a certain starter
She's a stablemate of Kew Gardens
Won both her races this season
Connections have alternative plans
The Tattersalls Gold Cup the target
Before an Autumn campaign as well

MAGICAL is a 4yo filly
LAH TI DAR is a 4yo filly

The history of the Coronation Stakes
Show fillies are 0-36 since the 1992 race
Only 1 4yo filly has won since the mid 1980's

Coronet looks a doubtful runner
Stradivarius almost certainly wont run

MORANDO who won at Chester
Probably won't get the ground he wants
Could be unlikely to turn up in this race

Many of these
Will not be running in the race

The Coronation Stakes
Rarely has a big field anyway
The last few renewals of the race
Had 6 10 8 4 7 5 6 5 9 8 runners

So you can see why I was tempted
With the 5/1 Each Way on Kew Gardens



Some Quick Updates


Simona Halep

Did not get to play yesterday
The Rome Masters was washed out
Heavy rain wiped the whole day out


Salford City

Division 2

Don't worry
Keeping this very short
Skybet the Division 2 sponsors
Price them up at 12/1 next year
That was the price I forecasted
Expect them to finish Top 6
But no plans to have any bets


Linger

Horse to Follow

This is the Joseph O'Brien horse
Suggested as the Horse to Follow
He is entered at Navan Saturday

Linger runs in a 0-65 over 1m 5f
He has been raised from 49 to 62
Will look at that race if he does run




Liberal Democrat

Leader Update

Advised July 29th 2018

Next liberal democrat Leader

50% of Stakes - Layla Moran 3/1
50% of Stakes - Jo Swinson Evens

Not many will have got involved
But there has been a development
Layla Moran has ruled herself out

Jo Swinson (Evens) the saver bet
Now priced up around 1/4-1/5-1/6
Looks like we will break level here




Eurovision Song Contest

Saturday Night

Netherlands 7/4

No interest myself
I won't be watching it
Not heard any of the songs

On Twitter I saw a tweet
From Graham Wheldon
Older members may know
He was a former Tipster
Racing and Football Outlook
Specialised on draw biases
Always been a good judge
Likes all these Novelty bets

In his opinion
The Netherlands entry
Sung by some young snowflake
One of the best songs of all time
Seen in the Eurovision

Graham Wheldon also said
Had one of biggest bets in his life
On the Netherlands to win this

He also predicts Germany
May well finish last (Evens)

He has had the 9/2 double
Netherlands to win
Germany to finish last

I'd say to Graham Wheldon
If he is that keen on this bet
You can get 1/4 the odds 1-2-3-4
I'd stick him in an each way double

One thing I do know about him
Whatever evidence there is out there
Be that social media or internet polls
Wheldon will know all about those
When it comes to the Eurovision
He is a better judge than Terry Wogan

Mind you
Before you follow him off a cliff
He backed the Royal Baby to be a girl

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