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Today's Message    

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Only two meetings left 

5 Previews

Carlisle 1.50
Wolverhampton 5.00
Wolverhampton 5.30
Wolverhampton 6.30
Wolverhampton 8.00

 
Confidence very high
But energy levels low

Before I went to bed 
Felt I'd got an account bet
Comeatchoo in the 6.30pm

I backed the horse yesterday
Placed him in a win double 
With my Cheltenham bet below
Given in future betting angles

The picture has changed a bit 
I overslept by over 3hrs today
No panic wasn't too bothered
Had done plenty of prep work

Now I've gone cold on this bet
Smaller type limited backclass
One that I'm happy to bet myself
But not one I wanted to account 

Still feel he's one of the best bets
Decided to stake the race this way

Wolverhampton 6.30

£7.00 Win Bet COMEATCHOO 11/4-3/1

£3.00 Win Bet BEZZAS LAD 9/4-5/2


Now calling another bet
As the bet bet of the day


Today's Best Bet

Wolverhampton 8.00

SHERIFFMUIR 10/11 - 1/1

Win Bet


SHERIFFMUIR is my best bet
You can get some evens 
But not suitable to stake
The rewards not high enough

No Tuesday Message
 
Taking a day off tomorrow
Got a hospital trip to cover
So ready to drop a day now







Sunday's Review
  
Turned out a quality message
That had some lovely winners 
In races that looks so difficult
This  finished W W W L W L W
We only had 2 losing previews
Battleofdoyen was one of them
The other I was pleased about
Didn't fancy Asterion Forlonge
But was secretly happy he won
He took out 2 Supreme horses
Helps Abadacadabra's chance 
The best bet of the day superb
Backing two horses each way
BLACK TEARS won 16/1-14/1
OUR ROXANNE 2nd 16/1-12/1
Came out as a 11/2 - 6/1 winner
Almost deserved more reward
Results far better than expected 



PROFILES & PREVIEWS 


Carlisle 1.50

4/6 Goobinator, 7/2 Neville's Cross, 13/2 Archi's Affaire
12/1 Dora De Janeiro, 14/1 Special Brute, 25/1 Time For Another
28/1 Flood Defence, 33/1 Holme Abbey, 40/1 Elite Icon
40/1  Marvellous Joe, 50/1 Elusive Red, Ibn Al Emarat.

Novice Hurdle

Looks a 3 horse race

GOOBINATOR sets the standard
Decent flat horse and has won a hurdle

NEVILLE'S CROSS is not far behind
And find myself preferring his chance

On soft ground
At a stiff complicated track like this
Decided that was the right bet

GOOBINATOR is a 4yo
Coming from a flat background

NEVILLE'S CROSS an older 5yo
With a National Hunt background

Selection

NEVILLE'S CROSS 100/30 - 7/2

Each Way





Wolverhampton 5.00

5/2 Elusif, 4/1 Bold Decision, 5/1 Caledonia Laird
6/1 Lottie Deno, 8/1 Lyrical Ballad, 10/1 Billyoakes
10/1 Major Crispies, 20/1 Cool Strutter, 25/1 Burauq
25/1 Darwina.

7f Handicap

Some of the lighter weights
Looked short of class of fitness
Was not hard to get the shortlist
Lyrical Ballad missed out from it
As a 4yo filly up in distance (1-63)

Came down to a shortlist of 4

5/1 Caledonia Laird (9yo)
9/1 Billyoakes (8yo)
7/2 Bold Decision (4yo)
2/1 Elusif (5yo)

Two older horses
Two are 3 or more years younger
Best siding with younger horses

ELUSIF offered most
She has the shortest absence
And on Racing Post Ratings last time
He is 6lbs clear

Selection

ELUSIF 7/4 -2/1

Win Bet





Wolverhampton 5.30

2/1 Rockesbury, 5/2 Pearl Spectre, 5/1 Come On Bear
10/1 Air Of York, Hey Pretty, 14/1 Miracle Garden
20/1 Little Miss Kodi, Supreme Dream, William Ashford
25/1 Je M'En Fiche.
 
7f Handicap

Division 2 of the earlier race
Has some of the same themes
Such as the lighter weights
Lacking some class and fitness

Felt the market was right
Shortlisted 3 horses

ROCKESBURY 2/1
PEARL SPECTRE 7/2
AIR OF YORK 8/1

Don't see much value here
Or reason to get involved much

Selection

PEARL SPECTRE 7/2

Each Way




Wolverhampton 6.30

7/2 Bezzas Lad, Comeatchoo, 6/1 Lady Melody
6/1 She's Easyontheeye, 7/1 Feel Good Factor
7/1 Hot Hot Hot, 8/1 Street Life, 16/1 Secret Identity
25/1 Microscopic, 33/1 La Chica Lobo.

3yo Handicap (5f)
 
Relying on fitness here

COMEATCHOO 

The fittest profile by miles
He has the shortest absence
Already had 4 runs since January
Most of these have not had any

SHE'S EASYONTHEEYE is a filly
She has raced once in just 101 days

SECRET IDENTITY a filly  
She has raced once in just 69 days
FEEL GOOD FACTOR 165 days off
LADY MELODY a filly with just 3 runs
She has also raced once in 64 days

BEZZAS LAD has 1 run in 135 days

STREET LIFE has 108 days off
MICROSCOPIC has recent runs
But is scoring lower numbers
HOT HOT HOT has the same issue

COMEATCHOO is modest
He is very exposed as well
Not the biggest of horses

But the only one in the race
With proven fitness and in form
Has to be the selection here
But want a saver at the prices
Mixing the class horse
With the fittest horse as well

Selection
 
£7.00 Win Bet COMEATCHOO 11/4-3/1

£3.00 Win Bet BEZZAS LAD 9/4-5/2




Wolverhampton 8.00

11/10 Sheriffmuir, 7/2 Fair Star, Opportunist
8/1 Desert Dawn, Lep, 14/1 Happy Face
40/1 Its All Clover Now, 40/1 Karalius
66/1 Go On My Cocker, Maharashtra.

9f Novice for 4yo +

SHERIFFMUIR sets the standard
He is a 4yo who has yet to win a race
Familiar tale in these sort of races
Despite a top class stable behind him
Has he finally found the right race

FAIR STAR is very unusual
Coming from bumpers to Novices
Given the choice of the pair
SHERIFFMUIR looks much safer

OPPURTUNIST has raced once
He needs a lot of improvement 
LEP another needing to improve

SHERIFFMUIR

Simple choice
Hard to be too critical about him
Despite labelled as disappointing
He has only had 4 runs in his lift
Impossible draw on his debut
Had 440 days off on his 2nd start
Think he should be winning this

Selection

SHERIFFMUIR 10/11 -Evens

Win Bet







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
 


Mens Tennnis

Novak Djokovic won the tennis
Having looked in serious trouble
Amazing performance from behind

Despite that
There is a major new threat now
Dominic Thiem has finally arrived 
The old Djokovic Nadal hegemony
Dominant for two years looks over 
At least on the fast and hard courts

Next up is the French Open slam
Which looks between three players
Dominic Thiem Njokovic and Nadal
That could come down to the draw 
Djokovic should win at Wimbledon
Dominic Thiem may win a US Open


Darts

Didn't see any of the Darts
But Gerwyn Price got beaten


Manchester City

Beaten 2-0 by Tottenham
Thankfully this matters not
We got out of the beautiful bet
With a very acceptable £5 loss
And not regretted that once
Yesterday would have stung
But we escaped all the pain
Lovely to be on the other side
Or what was a stressful bet


Iowa Caucus

Next Column will be Wednesday
We may hopefully know by them
The Bernie Sanders Iowa result
Trading between 4/7 and 1/3 now
Maximum confidence he wins it


Ante Post

Cheltenham Festival

Wednesday March 11th

Champion Bumper

Betfair Prices

3/1 Appreciate It 7/1 Panic Attack 12/1 Israel Champ
14/1 Ferny Hollow 20/1 Wilde About Oscar 20/1 Risk Factor
25/1 Energumen 25/1 Eric Bloodaxe 25/1 Farouk D'Alene 
25/1 Third Time Lucki 40/1 Forged In Fire 40/1 Soaring Glory
 
 
APPRECIATE IT 11/4-3/1

Win Bet

  
The race is still very raw
Appreciate It the stand out
After winning on Saturday
This is a highly unusual race
For me to consider this early  
But on all evidence available
He looks in a different class


Racing Post Ratings

Bumpers this year

138  Appreciate It  
133 Israel Champ
132 Third Time Lucki
131 Eric Bloodaxe


APPRECIATE IT

Saturdays win
Racing Post Rating of 138
Puts him 5lbs clear of the field
 
Racing Post Ratings

Bumpers

Best 3 figures that year
Run by any horse in any race
 
2018-19 Ratings of 137 136 136
2017-18 Ratings 143 142 142
2016-17 Ratings of 136 136 132
2015-16 Ratings of 136 136 136
2014-15 Ratings of 140 140 137

APPRECIATE IT (138 rating)

Beats every bumper horse 
In the 2016 2017 2019 season
Thats any horse in every race

He is behind the 2018 crop
He is behind the 2015 crop

But the crucial point is

He has only had his prep races
The horses that achieved more  
Had a Cheltenham Festival bumper
The Aintree and Punchestown ones
To have earnt those bigger figures

How big could he score
When he takes in the festivals

My main point is

APPRECIATE IT's 138 rating
Looks a massive figure to me
Considering this is only February

There are other reasons

He ticks all the usual boxes

Top Class Stable
Very highly regarded
Very expensive

But something else interests me

Horses aged 4
Running in the Bumper
Have a miserable 1-71 record
Only Cue Card managed to win

His 2 market rivals right now

PANIC ATTACK is a 4yo filly
ISRAEL CHAMP is a 4yo

They are surely disadvantaged

Several others in the betting

Are also only 4 year olds

14/1 Ferny Hollow - 25/1 Farouk D'Alene 
40/1 Soaring Glory - 40/1 Forged In Fire

APPRECIATE IT

Looks the real deal to me

Would not normally touch this race

But right now

Currently my best bet at Cheltenham 

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