7 Previews      
0 Account Bet 
0 Highlighted Bet 

No Staked Bet




Today's Message  
  
7 Previews

Lingfield 12.00
Lingfield 12.30 
Lingfield 1.05
Huntingdon 1.25
Lingfield 1.40 
Doncaster 2.25
Huntingdon 2.35

4 Lingfield races
Back to witchcraft and sorcery
To be fair it is not too bad a card 
I was quite tempted by this bet

Doncaster 1.15 - Papa Tango Charly 6/4
Doncaster 2.25 - Midnights' Gift  5/2

Each Way Double

Feel this is an excellent bet
But it breaks one of my rules
Never stake a Jonjo O'Neill Horse



This is the bet
I would prefer 

Doncaster 2.25 

MIDNIGHT'S GIFT 5/2-9/4

Each Way

Not everyone will like this strategy
I've backed her and think she wins

At 5/2 she would be highlighted
At 9/4 she would be unstaked
Unfortunately she is 9/4 right now



This is an alternative option
But this has fewer safety nets



Doncaster 2.25 

£8.50 Win MIDNIGHT'S GIFT 5/2-9/4
£2.50 Win GUARDIA TOP 6/1



There are other options


Lingfield 12.30

BOY GEORGE 4/1

Each Way

Not keen on staked bets here
Too much Sorcery at the track
But he has far more experience
Than the favourite short of runs

This bet appeals on paper

Lingfield 1.40

£5 Win Bet FALCAO 6/1-13/2 -7/1
£5 Win Bet CHOCO STAR 10/11 

Suspect Choco Star may win
But bought her out of the race
But this is a very weak market
And not enough reliability here



Two Huntingdon previews
Both are big field handicaps

The best profile bet there
The best profile horse 2.35pm
Consider this race as too hard
Best profile from few renewals

  
Todays Best Bet

Had she been 5/2
I would have a highlighted bet
On Midnight's Gift each way
But she is 9/4 and thats tight

Instead
Forced to go to Lingfield
Where I am less keen to stake

This is the suggested best bet



Lingfield 12.30

BOY GEORGE 4/1

Each Way




Thursday's Review

Highlighted bet at Gowran Park
Chef Des Obeaux with 2 savers
He made a serious early mistake
Wasn't able to recover from that
And then pulled up after the 5th
On the back from straight away
Both savers ran well for a while
But the bet ended up as a loser
There were just 3 other previews
Which finished loser winner loser
Had a go at the big graded chase
Defeat in that made it a poor day


  



PROFILES & PREVIEWS 





Lingfield 12.00

3/1 Azets, Chetan, 9/2 Sharp Operator, 5/1 Billie Beane
10/1 Border Warrior, 14/1 Cristal Pallas Cat, 14/1 Misty
16/1 Haraz, 20/1 Mrs Benson, 25/1 Sixth Of June
66/1 Tintern Spirit.

8f Handicap

Several of these
Look questionable on profile
 
BORDER WARRIOR is down from 12f
With just 4 runs not a sensible choice

Several are short of recent runs 
SHARP OPERATOR is a 7yo
He has ran just once in 108 days
MISTY a filly has 1 run since June
MRS BENSON looks unfit as well
CRISTAL PALLAS CAT has 60 days off

BILLIE BEANE can be questioned
One of the lightweights lacks class
She is a mare with 1 run in 108 days
Low scoring stable also a concern
They haven't had a winner in 226 days

HARAZ didn't do enough 2 days ago
But I can see him placing at a big price

CHETAN has a decent chance
On last time out Racing post ratings
He comes out ahead of anything else
That said he is now 8 years old
He has had only 1 run in 58 days

AZETS has ran 3 times in that period
Bumped into an improver last time
He feels the more likely winner 
CHETAN though from a better stable

AZETS has been backed 3/1 to 9/4
Wanted to go win bet and saver here
Annoying so playing the race this way


Selection
 
£4.50 Win Bet HARAZ 20/1

£3.00 Win Bet AZETS 9/4  

£2.50 Win Bet CHETAN 3/1


 


Lingfield 12.30

7/2 Queen Of Silca, 5/1 Trecco Bay, 6/1 Boy George
6/1 Love My Life, 7/1 Birkie Queen, 8/1 Seventeen O Four
10/1 Ever Amber, 12/1 Light Lily, 12/1 Ask Siri
25/1 Fumbleintheforest, 33/1 Evaporust.

3yo Handicap (8f)

QUEEN OF SILCA is 11/4
Seems popular and fancied
What I don't like about her
She is a filly with 1 run in 113 days

3yo Handicaps in January
Any distance in Class 6 races

Fillies with under 5 runs
Just 1 run that season
Running within 60 days
Return a modest 3-78 record
Those like her from handicaps
Have a 0-38 record in them

Not sure not convinced
But she does not feel safe enough
And the best pattern in this race
Comes from the following 4 points

All Past winners
Had 8st 13lbs or more
Came from 7f or 8f
Had 2 or more runs in 12 weeks

QUEEN OF SILCA is not a match
LOVE MY LIFE is not one either
She is a filly with 1 run since July
BIRKIE QUEEN is rated only 47
Comes from a very weak stable

3 Horses
Passed my angles

EVER AMBER (3rd Choice)
TRECCO BAY
BOY GEORGE

BOY GEORGE unlucky last time
Had a poor passage from stall 1
Like his extra experience here

Selection

BOY GEORGE 4/1

Each Way





Lingfield 1.05

2/1 Isobar Wind, 11/4 Lets Go Lucky, 4/1 Hong Kong Dragon
7/1 Interrupted Dream, Ventura Destiny, 14/1 Get The Look
33/1 Rich Girl.

3yo Claimer (7f)

Feel the market has this right
Some of the less safe profiles

VENTURA DESTINY - 1 run in 68 days
HONG KONG DRAGON steps up 2f
INTERUPTED DREM well beat recently
GET THE LOOK has a long absence
16 similar races all ran within 30 days

Suspect David Evans pair
May produce the winner of this

Shortlist

ISOBAR WIND
LETS GO LUCKY

Selection

LETS GO LUCKY 7/4

Win Bet




Huntingdon 1.25

5/1 Twycross Warrior, 6/1 Imperial Elysian
7/1 Aheadfullofdreams, Sea Story, 8/1 High Up In The Air
10/1 Somekindofstar, Wye Aye, 12/1 Dr Oakley, State Vision
14/1 Connect Four, The Distant Lady, 20/1 Dapa Lad
20/1 Sheeza Legend, 25/1 Dont Tell The Wife
33/1 Happy News, Watar Allstar.

Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

Past renewals show

Horses aged 7 or more are 0-45
All winners ran within 6 weeks
All came from Class 4 or lower
All had 10 or fewer career runs
Alll had 3-4-5-6 hurdle starts
All beaten under 30 lengths last time

If we apply these angles
These horses came out best

WYE AYE 10/1
STATE VISION 14/1 
 
TWYCROSS WARRIOR is an 8yo
With 14 runs 11 over hurdles
He is a bit more exposed than ideal

Some of these are borderline cases
HIGH UP IN THE AIR has 7 hurdle runs
Surely that is forgivable for a 6yo
But a heavy recent defeat over 4f further
Makes him look risky and hard to like
DR OAKLEY has a difficult absence
May lack the class from bottomweight
IMPERIAL ELYSIAN a dangerous floater
But having fell at the 1st in a chase last time
Hasnt had a proper race since September

AHEADFULLOFDREAMS looks wrong
He ran only 13 days ago
Started 125/1 in a Maiden Hurdle
Beaten 43 lengths in that race as well
I can only assume its his stable
That make him anything but an outsider
Would not consider him shortlistable
SEA STORY is a 7yo
None have won this race before
Plenty have at other tracks though
Shortlisting 3 horses

WYE AYE 10/1
STATE VISION 14/1 
SEA STORY 7/1

Selection

£4 Each Way SEA STORY 7/1

£1 Win Bet WYE AYE 12/1 + 

£1 Win Bet STATE VISION 12/1 +




Lingfield 1.40

5/4 Chocco Star, 9/2 Falcao, 11/2 Dreamboat Annie
6/1 Tarseekh, 10/1 Starchant, 16/1 Englishman
16/1 Tawaafoq, 33/1 Burauq.

6f Handicap

CHOCO STAR the correct favourite
Has the strongest credentials

Racing Post Ratings last time out
Have him 11lbs clear of the others
TARSEEKH is the likely challenger
But he is a 7yo absent 114 days

There are some winners like him
I wold not rule him out on profile
But his trainer is hardly reassuring

Horses trained by Charlie Wallis
Absent more than 11 weeks
Have a modest 1-78 record
TARSEEKH has 114 days off 
Not prepared to trust the stable

FALCAO could be a bigger danger
Looks like he is running himself fit

Given the prices 
Playing the race this way

Selection

£5 Win Bet FALCAO 6/1-13/2 -7/1

£5 Win Bet CHOCO STAR 10/11 - Evens




Doncaster 2.25

11/4 Midnights' Gift, 3/1 Galice Macalo
4/1 Fantastic Ms Fox, 6/1 Cuban Sun, Guardia Top
6/1 Yauthym, 25/1 Red Archangel, 33/1 Fleursals
33/1 Ravenscar.

Fillies Juvenile Listed race

These races are very rare
Only 1 has ever been run
So statistics are useless

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

115 Midnights' Gift
111 Midnights' Gift
110 Galice Macalo
110 Guardia To
107 Midnights' Gift
106 Guardia To
101 Fantastic Ms Fox
99 Yauthym
98 Guardia To
97 Cuban Sun
96 Guardia To
89 Galice Macalo

MIDNIGHTS GIFT comes out top

She is a half sister
To the winner of this last year

Best numbers
Plenty of experience

Last time she ran a good 2nd
As a 3yo taking on older horses
Only a Handerson last time winner
Was able to finish ahead of her

Prior to that
 
MIDNIGHTS GIFT won at Aintree
Quite a similar track to this one

GALICE MACALO ran in that race
She fell at the last and had every chance
I think we would have beaten her anyway
Smaller stable racing club owned horse
We have more positives than she has
FANTASTIC FOX was well behind
Could not bet her sired by Foxwedge
CUBAN SUN was a cheapish purchase
GUARDIA TOP should be a danger

MIDNIGHTS GIFT in my view
Should be shorter than 5/2
Probably the fact she is penalised
Has pushed her price out in the betting

Selection

MIDNIGHTS GIFT 5/2

Each Way





Huntingdon 2.35

7/2 Phoenix Way, 11/2 Dorking Boy
6/1 Palmers Hill 8/1 Doctor Duffy, Goodbye Dancer
12/1 Anytime Will Do, Who's My Jockey, 14/1 Kansas City Chief  14/1 Label Des Obeaux, 16/1 Eur Gone West, Taj Badalandabad 20/1 Shanwalla, 25/1 Printing Dollars,  25/1  White Moon 33/1 Captain Tommy.



Handicap Hurdle (3m 1f)

Difficult race
Drawn into it on this statistic

January + Febuary
Handicap Hurdles 3m 1f or more
Any class of race
Horses absent 144 + days
Have a miserable 1-132 record

The only winner
Nicky Hendersons Cup Final (runs)
LABEL DES OBEAUX fails this angle

PALMERS WAY fails this 0-132 statistic
PHOENIX WAY fails this 0-132 statistic

KANSAS CITY CHIEF won last time
But as an 11yo may struggle to win again
WHO'S MY JOCKEY is not safe enough
Not with just 1 run in 237 days
Having downgraded stables recently

DOCTOR DUFFY has 82 days absence
Thats combined with topweight as well

DORKING BAY is up 5 furlongs
Not a negative but safer profiles
GOODBYE DANCER is respected
Despite falling last time as a 9yo
TAJ BADALANDABAD is respected
But a bit older than would be ideal

Best Profile

Horses aged 6-7
Under 9 lifetime runs
Running within 143 days
But absent over 4 weeks
Beaten under 20 lengths last time
Carrying 9st 13lbs or more
Have a 5-9 record in this race
One horse has this profile

Selection

ANYTIME WILL DO  7/1-8/1

Each Way


FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 
   


Cheltenham Declarations

Finally come through

RSA Chase 53 runners

National Hunt Chase 61 runners

They came far too late
Too be of any help today
So done the Stayers Hurdle

Nextrace on the list
The National Hunt Chase

Although 61 horses are entered
Only 39 are eligible to run in it
They still have to qualify for this





Tennis

Novak Djokovic won earlier today
Through and looking quite good
One of his future opponents
Stefanos Tsitsipas the 5th favourite
Is a set and break down right now
Would be a bonus if he were beaten



Sunday

Could suggest 2 bets
Bets I think are worth it

One a Football Bet
One a Politics Bet
But prices need to hold




Saturday

Skybet Chase

Doncaster 3.15

Dingo Dollar 5/1 Cobra De Mai 7/1 Azzerti 7/1
Burbank 8/1 Ravenhill Road 10/1 Ok Corral 10/1
Chidswell 10/1 Quarenta 12/1 Good Man Pat 12/1
Fingerontheswitch 12/1 Solomon Grey 14/1
Calipto 16/1 Monbeg River 20/1 
Looksnowtlikebrian 25/1
 
Not covering this tomorrow
Rarely do dislike my angles
No time with Cheltenham on

I would prefer

Horses aged 7-8-9
But would include 10 year olds
A run within 63 days
At least 2 runs this season
Coming from 2m 5f to 3m 2f
Under 22 chase past races 

DINGO DOLLAR is borderline
Nearly made the shortlist here
The weight a bit more than ideal
And horses from the Hennessy
Have not won this in 45 years 
That said I can see him placing
The top 2 weights are not safe
Ok Corral may have a quiet race
Calipto might not be ready yet
DINGO DOLLAR can get placed 

Best Matches

8/1 Azzerti
12/1 Quarenta
10/1 Ravenhill Road
8/1 Burbank
 
Not making a selection

Not previewing the race either

Gut feeling based on limited work

I would probably split stake this
  
£5 Win Bet on one of the best 4 matches

£5 Place Bet Dingo Dollar 5/4 


 
Cheltenham

Thursday 12th March

Stayers Hurdle

Paisley Park 11/10 If The Cap Fits 7/1
Benie Des Dieux 8/1 Apples Jade 10/1 City Island 10/1
Penhill 14/1 Champ 16/1 L'Ami Serge 16/1
Laurina 16/1 Summerville Boy 16/1 The Worlds End16/1
Bacardys 20/1 Bright Forecast 25/1 Klassical Dream 25/1
Minella Indo 25/1 Top Notch 25/1 Emitom 33/1
Footpad 33/1 Lisnagar Oscar 33/1 Not Many Left 33/1
Papagana 33/1 Relegate 33/1


PAISLEY PARK won last year

Most of the horses he beat last year
Will not be running in this years race 
Hard not to see him as a safe favourite 
IF THE CAP FITS his biggest challenger

Many of the horses quoted above
Seem unlikely to run in this race

BENIE DES DIEUX looks unlikely to
She has a more likely alternative
And may want another race this year

APPLES JADE another doubtful runner
LAURINA is unlikely to run

KLASSICAL DREAM won't run
TOP NOTCH will run elsewhere
CHAMP must be an unlikely runner

NOT MANY LEFT will be underraced
LISNAGAR OSCAR is the wrong type

CITY ISLAND trades around 14/1
Previous winners aged 7
Had 8 9 15 10 9 8  hurdle runs 
None had under 8 hurdle runs
CITY ISLAND only has 5 runs
His previous run was in a Chase

Cheltenham Festival
Grade 1 Hurdle races
Any distance since 1997
Horses coming from fences
Have a 0-26 record in them
Would want a hurdle run beforehand
Without that he can not be safe

PENHILL won this in 2018
Remarkable win first time out
Would not rule him out just yet

Two horses
Do seem to dominate though

PAISLEY PARK 
IF THE CAP FITS

Both due to run on Saturday
In the Cleeve Hurdle

Saturday

4/7 Paisley Park 3/1 If The Cap Fits 8/1 L'Ami Serge
101 Summerville Boy 101 William Henry 12/1 Tobefair
14/1 Emitom 33/1 Kilbricken Storm 33/1 Lisnagar Oscar
50/1 Poetic Rhythm

Saturdays race

Should shake the market up

IF THE CAP FITS
Will be having his first run here
He has no Cheltenham experience

SUMMERVILLE BOY if winning
Could push himself into contention
But his trainer has a bad festival record
Not keen on his sires record either
His only winners beyond 2m 4f
Came in races in Class 5 or  lower

L'AMI SERGE is a 10 year old
Horses aged 10 or older are just 0-57
He would be eliminated on his age
Even if he runs and wins Saturday
  
PAISLEY PARK 
IF THE CAP FITS
   
Have reasonably safe profiles
Both look set to be positives there

Anyone wanting a bet
Before Saturdays Cleeve Hurdle
I'd suggest a split stake bet

£5.50 Win IF THE CAP FITS 7/1

£4.50 Win PAISLEY PARK 5/4 
 
You are fully covered
If either win the Stayers' Hurdle

Right now hard to like many others
Obviously Saturdays race crucial
Could radically affect the market
 
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