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Highlighted Bet


Sedgefield 5.30 

£7 Win Bet -  IF KARL'S BERG DID IT  5/1 -11/2

£3 Win Bet - FERRY ALL  6/1-13/2


Frustratingly weaker market  
The gambled 11/10 favourite
Appears statistically unsafe
My angles expect him to lose

Could have chosen one horse
Gone for an each way single  
It would be far safer staking

I could squeeze both horses in
One each way with a saver bet
But again this is a weak market

Staking them as a split stake
It is a winner if either wins it 

My angles offer no positives
Only opposing the favourite 
So hope I have chosen right





Today's Message   

Not covered too much today
Hoping amongst the rubble
We have a diamond in the last


7 Previews

Down Royal 1.00
Down Royal 1.30
Ascot 1.55  
Haydock 3.20
Haydock 3.50
Ascot 3.40 
Kilbeggan 4.40

Before the main bet

Couple of quick mentions




Haydock 3.50

SEEN THE LYTE 8/1

Each Way 

This is the type of horse
Who could win soon at big odds
Not really a horse I want to stake
As he usually misses the break
Hard to trust but you get value
Going to have a small bet here
To win the stakes of the main bet





Haydock 3.20

HYPERFOCUS 4/1-9/2

Each Way 

Down to 8 runners now
We need all of these to run
His stablemate scares me
Danzan would be the saver
If there are 7 or fewer running

You could argue

With 8 runners each way
It should be the main bet
It is an easier race to read 
Going instead to Sedgefield 


 
The Bounce theory

Can make you look a genius
Can make you look an moron
Expect to be one of the other
After the 5.30pm at Sedgefield
The favourite fails a big angle
 
Chosen this as the bet

Sedgefield 5.30 

£7 Win Bet IF KARL'S BERG DID IT  5/1

£3 Win Bet FERRY ALL 6/1 -13/2






Thursday's Review 

Below par message yesterday
The best bet was beaten miles
The ground just went too soft
The rain turned it against her 
Should have been more aware
Preview 1 was very frustrating
Split staking the 2nd 3rd & 4th
Kats Bob never smelt fancied
Got a little back in the 3rd race
And came out of the 4th intact
Saver Gift of Kings rescued us 
Dapper Man made the running
Felt my instincts were spot on
Had a chance but sure to place
That is exactly how it unfolded
Nothing back from the last race
Overall this was not impressive
A few slipped through the cracks
Because of a difficult schedule

 


PROFILES & PREVIEWS 

 
  
Down Royal 1.00

100/30 Dense Star, 4/1 Mooneista
4/1 Roses Blue 9/2 Blue Cabochon, 13/2 Tilia Cordata
10/1 Perfect Sign 14/1 The Blue Garter, 16/1 Colfer Kay
20/1 Queens Carriage 25/1 Ablah,  25/1 Perfect Match
66/1 What Adaay, 100/1 Shake The Heart.

5f Fillies Maiden (2yo)

This is a stiff track
This is soft ground

When you consider

DENSE STAR has 6 runs
BLUE CABOCHON has 5 runs
MOONEISTA has 6 runs

May be asking quite a lot
For a once raced filly to beat all 3

ROSES BLUE has this problem
TILIA CORDATE has this problem
COLFER KAY is rejected on debut
THE BLUE GARTER another debutant
PERFECT SIGN hasn't done enough
 
ROSES BLUE cost 300k
And could be a threat to the strategy
But with 1 run and 88 days off
Feel I have to stay with the horses
That have several runs behind them

The problem is the draw

Down Royal 5f races
Since 2011
Horses aged 3 or less
Drawn in stall 9 or higher
Have a 1-52 record in them

Horses aged 2
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-22 record in them

DENSE STAR is drawn 10
MOONEISTA is drawn 11

Very hard to know
How if at all that affects them

BLUE CABOCHON is best draw
From the 3 experienced horses
Going to side with him  

We could go each way
It means risking the ground
Can not know if he is suited by it
The other option a win + saver
DENSE STAR would be that saver

Selection

BLUE CABOCHON 4/1-9/2-5/1

Each Way






Down Royal 1.30

8/11 Messidor, 4/1 A Case Of You 11/2 Feeling Tip Top
16/1 Earls Rock, 16/1 Niamh Elizabeth, 25/1 Adakaz
25/1 Coins Cross, Dreams Delivered, 33/1 Cornish Rock
33/1 Rosie Rock, 33/1 Tosto, 50/1 Dark Street
100/1 Tellthemi'mhere.

7f Maiden (2yo)

Did not want to do this race

But the market suggests
This could be a 3 horse race
And 2 of them are badly drawn

Down Royal
Every race since 2011
Run over any distance
Any time of year
No horse with under 3 runs
Won drawn 13 or higher (0-22)

A CASE OF YOU is drawn 15
FEELING TIP TOP is drawn 16

MESSIDOR

Has the best figures
Has a much safer draw

Selection

MESSIDOR 4/5 + (Betfair)

Win Bet





Ascot 1.55
 
15/8 Twilight Calls, 11/4 Dandys Derriere
11/4 Pure Dreamer, 13/2 Dark Shift, 16/1 Headora
20/1 Santa Elena, 20/1 Marks Bear, Sociality
33/1 Imperium Blue, 50/1 Mr Moneypenny.

6f Novice

DANDY'S DERRIER     has 3 runs
PURE DREAMER also has 3 runs

No surprise if either win
DARK SHIFT is unraced
Not safe enough given his sire

TWILIGHT CALLS has raced once
Do we really want a horse with 1 run
Who also has a 58 day absence 
On a track as stiff as this one

Ascot 6f races
Since 2000
Any time of year
Male 2 year olds
1 career start
Absent over 32 days
Have a 0-42 record

They won at 5f and 7f
But none at this distance
I'd rather stay with experience

DANDY'S DERRIER has done more
But comes from an unreliable stable

PURE DREAMER is a positive
Made him a negative last time out
He was given a lot to do that day

DANDY'S DERRIER
Could be an optional saver


Selection

PURE DREAMER 5/2-11/4

Win Bet
or
Each Way

I'd prefer Each Way






Haydock 3.20

5/2 Bielsa, 4/1 Hyperfocus 5/1 Danzan
8/1 Dazzling Dan, 8/1 Lord Oberon
10/1 Troubador, 14/1 Angel Alexander
25/1 Vintage Brut.
 
6f Handicap (Class 2)

84 similar races

Horses absent over 76 days
Have a 0-77 record in these races

AUCHTERARDER has 192 days off
But is now a non runner sadly

LORD OBERON has 69 days off
Looks wrong with 2 runs in 15 months

BIELSA has 61 days off and topweight
He's raced just twice in 11 months now

ANGEL ALEXANDER is out of form
He has hardly beaten a rival this year
TROUBADOUR is a 3 year old
Beaten too far as a younger horse
Similar races show horses aged 3
Beaten over 8 lengths were 0-61
TROUBADOUR beaten 13 fails this
VINTAGE BRUT last won 2 years ago
Unplaced in all 10 races since then

DAZZLING DAN is a 4 year old
Has the class handles the ground
Should be thereabouts on profile
But could this be a prep race too
He could run in next weeks Portland
 
DANZAN is a 5yo
More than enough ability to win
His numbers in 6f Handicaps
Racing on Good to soft or worse
R. Post Ratings of 95 99 104 97 92
He only has a handicap mark of 88

DANZAN ran in this last year
He finished in 6th with excuses
He had 81 days absence
He had a difficult draw as well

HYPERFOCUS has a big chance
Needs to up his game from last time
But trip and ground were all wrong
And he was eased once beaten there
But he was placed in this last year
When running off a rating of 94
Today he only has to run off 86

DANZAN and HYPERFOCUS
Both are Tim Easterby horses
That complicates things a lot

HYPERFOCUS could be the one
He is stronger in the mark today
You would think he needs to win
To get into one of the Ayr Gold Cups

Selection
  
HYPERFOCUS 4/1-9/2

Each Way 





Ascot 3.40

11/4 Look Closely, 3/1 Labeebb, 9/2 Laafy
6/1 On To Victory, 8/1 Emirates Knight, 9/1 Natty Night
14/1 Dash Of Spice, Entangling, 33/1 Ernesto.

12f Handicap (12f)

5 renewals
Not too much to go one

Lighter raced horses are best
The same profile won 4 of the 5 

Male horses
Under 11 career starts
Coming from Class 2-3-4
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Coming from 10f-13f
Horses with this profile 
Have a 4-14 record in 5 renewals

LOOK CLOSELY has this profile
LABEEBB has this profile

LABEEBB could win
But not sure about his pedigree
Do we want his sire in this race

Exceed and Excel (Stallion)
Turf runners
1m 3f or more

They are 0-8 in Class 2 or higher 
When ground softer than good
None have won beyond Class 4
His sire puts me off a little bit

LOOK CLOSELY is drifting
Likely to be doubts about ground
Given this and other issues
Decided to play it this way

Selection

£8 Win Bet LAAFY 7/2 - 4/1

£2 Win Bet LOOK CLOSELY 4/1-9/2






Haydock 3.50
 
5/2 Shepherds Way, 4/1 Tom Tulliver
5/1 Somewhere Secret, 7/1 Cloudea, 8/1 Fantasy Keeper
10/1 Seen The Lyte, 12/1 Afandem, 14/1 Fox Hill
20/1 Majestic Sands, 25/1 Helvetian, 33/1 Red Stripes
66/1 Celerity.

5f Handicap

FANTASY KEEPER has topweight
Faces 282 days off on soft ground
Not going to sekect that profile

SHEPHERDS WAY won last time
But now a 3yo filly with an absence
Off 48 days after than win she's risky
CLOUDEA a 3yo filly absent 395 days
Too much to prove from the worst draw 
HELVETIAN has a nasty absence
MAJESTIC SANDS is a 3yo
Big ask against elders with 62 days off

FOX HILL not a negative
Would not be my first choice
She is a a 4yo filly
Never won off her current rating
Never won on softer ground
Never won in this class before
TOM TULLIVER is a 3 year old
Not safe enough drawn in stall 1

Haydock 5f races
Since 2005
Over 9 runners
Horses under 4 
Drawn in stall 1 
Have a 0-50 record
TOM TULLIVER fails this

SOMEWHERE SECRET is a 6yo
Won last time and has his chance
But up in weights and class today
AFANDEM has a chance
But will need to be close to his best
 
SEEN THE LYTE is a 5 year old mare
She is fit and running well right now 

Gave her a chance last time
Selecting her at 20/1 in a better race
A Class she has never won in before

She ran ok but drops in  class here 
There are doubts about her chance
She misses the break frequently
She may have to be lucky in running
She does have the ability to win this

Selection

SEEN THE LYTE 8/1

Each Way 






Kilbeggan 4.40

13/8 Broomfields Jeremy, 11/4 Fortune Street
4/1 Stivers, 8/1 Spiorad Saoirse, 16/1 Stoneyford Boy
20/1 Outa Dodge, You Say Nothing, 25/1 Seamus Darby
33/1 Justfortherecord, Magnor Glory, Scarlet Leader
50/1 Profound, 66/1 Furkhan, Shannon Gray.

2m Maiden Hurdle

Could be a race
Where a split stake works

FORTUNE STREET is 7 absent 220 days
STIVER is 7 absent 306 days

September Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent over 133 days
Have a 1-83 record

August and September
Maiden and Novice hurdles
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent over 197 days 
Have a 1-123 record in them
Those short of 2m 2f were 0-41

Not sure
But going to oppose these
Split stake the race like this

Selection

£6 Win Bet SPIORAD SAOIRSE 12/1-14/1

£4 Win Bet BROOMFIELDS JENNY 6/4

Sedgefield 5.30

13/8 The Blame Game, 5/1 Ferry All
6/1 If Karl's Berg Did, 6/1 Lord Springfield
7/1 Foster'sisland, 12/1 Achy Breaky Heart
14/1 Ben Buie, 20/1 Aire Valley Lad
33/1 Begoodtoyourself, 50/1 Molly Whuppie.

Novice Hurdle 2m 4f

THE BLAME GAME

Ran 8 days ago
His first race in 8 months

The following statistics show
He could be on the bounce

August and September
Novice Hurdles since 2007
Any distance
Horses running within 11 days
Their only run in the last 6 months
Have a 0-51 record in them
THE BLAME GAME fails this

If you look at all year round
And tinker a little bit with it
Then it suddenly looks better

Novice Hurdles since 2007
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses of any age
Just 1 run in 6 months
That run within 10 days
Not coming from a Graded race
Finishing the race last time out
You find a 0-238 record all year
THE BLAME GAME fails this

Watched his last race
He isn't the biggest of horses
Said to want fast ground too

Whatever happens 
We have to oppose him here
But there is no clear alternative

LORD SPRINGFIELD is one
But he is 7 years old
He has raced once in 7 months
Running his profile all 43 failed
Some won in August and October
But in September all 43 like him lost

ACHY BREAKY HEART is a mare
One well beaten race in months
She needs to improve a lot here

FERRY ALL is a 5yo
Like the favourite 8 days absence
But he is not on the bounce here
As he has a second recent race
His profile it was quite acceptable
Could not say that for the others
He was 3L behind The Blame Game
Could easily reverse that form now

IF KARL'S BERG DID IT a 5yo
Just 1 hurdle run 17 days ago 
He was beaten 7 lengths at 25/1
Tough task against better horses
Huge  player with improvement


Selection

£7 Win Bet IF KARL'S BERG DID IT  5/1

£3 Win Bet FERRY ALL 6/1 -13/2
 
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