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Highlighted Bet

Musselburgh 2.15

£8 Win Bet CLEARANCE 3/1

£2 Win Bet KENSINGTON ART 100/30-7/2


The chosen bet
From 3 stronger options
All statistical based bets





Today's Message 

11 Previews

3 Stand out

The rest of it

See them as window dressing
Message filling experiments
The strongest bets are below
 
 
Lots of meetings today
Plenty of rain about too

Newmarket 3 previews
The ground is now soft 

Market Rasen 2 races
Covered the listed races
Interesting but very tight 

The previews
At both of these meetings
See them as window dressing
Message filling experiments
The stronger bets are below
  
Newmarket 12.45
Market Rasen 2.05 
Musselburgh 2.15
Newmarket 2.25
Market Rasen 2.40
Musselburgh 2.50
Musselburgh 3.25
Newmarket 3.35 
Kilbeggan 4.25
Musselburgh 4.35
Kilbeggan 4.55




Today's Best Options


Musselburgh 2.15

£8 Win Bet CLEARANCE  11/4 -3/1

£2 Win Bet KENSINGTON ART 3/1- 7/2

Small field staying race
Favourite fails a breeding stat
Feel we have two strong options
And the room to stake both horses

 


Musselburgh 4.35

£4.50 Each Way DEEDS NOT WORDS 5/1 - 9/2

£1.00 Win Bet DECONSO 9/1-10/1

The favourite just feels wrong
But the market disagrees with me
Going with a regressive 9yo
Against an improving 3 year old
Doesn't sound a healthy decision
But believe I am right to do that
We could actually have win bets
Could stake £9 win and £1 place
I like that bet but it's rather risky
I'd feel sick if he ended up placed



Kilbeggan 4.55

£8 Win Bet DAKOTA BEAT 2/1

£2 Win Bet POLITICISE 4/1
 
Worried about a weak market
No control of the non runners
No control over the prices
The race could look different
By the time we get to this race





Thursday's Review

We didn't commit too heavily
But we came off second best
One winner 3 placed 4 losers
Decided against staking a bet
Troubador stank in the market
Just didn't smell at all fancied
Got the big opponents beaten
But a 40/1 chance popped up
Sounds of Cannon 20/1 failed
Pulled hard and ran a stinker
Not surprised from that stable
You don't see Gosden horses
Race as badly as that one did
Plenty of saver bets won well
But not enough winners won
A dangerous day with the rain
But one we were second best



PROFILES & PREVIEWS
  


Newmarket 12.45

2/1 Celsius, 7/2 Lomu, 9/2 Han Solo Berger
5/1 Junius Brutus, 9/1 Grandfather Tom

5f Handicap

Down to 5 runners
Following 7 non runners

CELCUIS ran badly last time
Much depends on how he recovers
From a bad run over 6f at Haydock
 
GRANDFATHERTOM is unsafe
No wins in this class or off his rating
Never tried soft ground before
 
JUNIUS BRUTAS has a chance

HAN SOLO BERGER 2 recent runs
That could help him over others

LOMU is a positive
Partly because of last time figures
Comfortably the best in this race
   
Selection
 
£8 Win Bet LOMU 3/1

£2 Win Bet HAN SOLO BERGER 5/1





Market Rasen 2.05

4/1 Red Force One, 5/1 Highly Prized, 6/1 Fair Mountain
6/1 Fiesole, 8/1 Caius Marcius, 8/1 Dino Velvet
14/1 Brandon Castle, Nordican Bleue, Valentino Dancer
16/1 Ingleby Hollow, Red Tornado, 20/1 Siannes Star.
 
Summer Handicap Hurdle 
Listed Class race over 2m
 
11 renewals since 2007 
All 11 winners had 4-14 hurdle runs

Horses with over 14 hurdle runs
Have a 0-56 record in this race
The following horses fail this stat

RED TORNADO - 23 hurdle races
DINO VELVER - 23 hurdle races
FIESOLE - 20 hurdle races
CAIUS MARCIUS - 20 hurdle races

HIGHLY PRIZED is fancied
He has 153 days off the track

The longest absent past winner
Only had 70 days without a run

This is interesting

Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded Class
Any distance
Any time of year
Since 2007
Horses with over 20 lifetime runs
Absent more than 98 days
Have a 0-148 record in them
HIGHLY PRIZED fails this angle
CAIUS MARCIUS fails this angle

HIGHLY PRIZED only fails this
If you include his foreign form

SIANNES STAR has an absence
Looks exposed and hard to like

FAIR MOUNTAIN is an 8yo
Experienced but not too exposed
He was 2nd in the 2018 renewal
When far too inexperienced there
The main problem with his profile
He has raced just once in 2 seasons
That was at Royal Ascot this year
When 66/1 finishing last of 19
No  idea about his form and fitness 

NORDICAN BLUE has 294 days off
Not idea given she is only a mare
He looks too exposed for a 5yo
To win in this class with that absence

RED FORCE ONE is a 5yo
Not convinced by Lethal Force
A Sire whose hurdle winners so far
Are all in class 4 or lower
He is also worryingly exposed
For a horse as young as he is
  
INGLEBY HOLLOW is fit from the flat
As he was when 3rd in this race last year
His hurdle numbers are consistent
Should be able to win off his rating
My main worry is 66 lifetime starts

Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded Class
Any distance
Any time of year
Since 2007
295 of these races

Horses with over 49 career starts
Have a 0-90 record in these races

BRANDON CASTLE also fails this
Having had 52 career runs so far

VALENTINO DANCER is a 5yo
He was 5th in this race last season
That was a decent enough effort
He was only a 4yo with 3 hurdle runs
The case against him is his last year
He has raced one in 12 months
When finishing last of 5 on the flat

None of these are perfect
Being  unexposed 
Being in form
With 2 + recent runs
 
DINO VELVET is exposed
But he has 2 decent recent runs
And comes here with momentum
So I see him as the safest choice

Selection

DINO VELVET 5/1-11/2

Each Way




Musselburgh 2.15

5/2 Harbour Front, 3/1 Clearance
4/1 Flat To The Max, 5/1 Kensington Art
6/1 Roman Stone, 12/1 Indian Vision.

2m handicap

Not really my kind of race
Just wanted to mention  a sire stat

HARBOUR FRONT sired by Iffraaj
INDIAN VISION sired by Iffraaj

Horses sired by Iffraaj
Have won 2m races on sand 
Those on grass though are 0-21

Horses sire by Iffraaj
With under 8 career starts 
Have not yet won a race on turf
That was over 1m 5f or more yet
They are only 1-60 over 12f or more

HARBOUR FRONT fails this with 4 runs
INDIAN VISION from the same sire
Rejected with 401 days off the track


HARBOUR FRONT

He fails this angle as well
He is a 4 year old
He has 4 career starts
He has 132 days off

Handicaps over 2m +
Class 3 and lower
Any time of year

Horses aged 4
Under 6 career starts
Absent more than 48 days
Have a modest 1-54 record

Only 1 horse with his profile
Has ever won a 2m handicap
That was Sign Manual in 2013


ROMAN STONE has a recent run
But a heavy defeat is off-putting
When giving weight to everything

FLAT TO THE MAX has 183 days off
If you look at his trainers record
His horses absent over 68 days
Have a miserable 1-196 record

Possibles

KENSINGTON ART is a dilemma
Don't like his sire over 2m races
But my breeding stats disagree
And he also has two recent runs 

CLEARANCE is my preference

Selection

£8 Win Bet CLEARANCE  11/4-3/1

£2 Win Bet KENSINGTON ART 3/1- 7/2





Newmarket 2.25

11/10 Dandalla, 2/1 Time Scale
13/2 Hala Hala Hala, 14/1 She Do, 16/1 Seattle Rock
33/1 Fev Rover, 33/1 Santosha 50/1 Chica Bella.
 
Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes 
Used to be the Cherry Hinton

The last 12 winners
Had the following races 
3 2 3 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 2

They all had 2 or more runs
So opposing the once raced types
The following have raced once

Ghaaliya - Hala Hala Hala
Fev Rover - Santosha

Listed and Group form
Seems important in the profile
Every winner bar 2011 had this
CHICA BELLE does not
SHE DO has no pattern form
SEATTLE FORM has listed form
But well beaten and 80/1 in that 

DANDALLA sets the standard
No surprise if she were to win
But has Ascot to get over first

Not keen on her sire much
Horses Aged 2
Sired by Dandy Man
Running over 6f or more
Listed and Group races
Have a 2-62 record so far
She was one of the 2 winners
When she won the Albany Stakes
But whilst officially good to soft
It was nowhere near like today
  
TIME SCALE is a positive
Clear second best on numbers
She is further ahead of the rest
Than she is behind the favourite

I was planning to go each way
But a non runner has killed that
Progressive and better drawn
Big chance of beating Dandalla
Who I hope gets stuck in the soft

Selection

TIME SCALE 2/1-9/4

Win Bet





Market Rasen 2.40

6/1 Lough Derg Spirit, 8/1 Bags Groove, Potterman
8/1 San Benedeto, 10/1 Drumcliff, 10/1 Royal Village, 
10/1 Solomon Grey, 12/1 Adrrastos, 12/1 Fidux
14/1 Copper West, Knockgraffon, 16/1 Imperial Presence
20/1 Art Of Payroll, Field Exhibition, Pink Eyed Pedro
20/1 Really Super, 25/1 More Buck's.
 
Handicap Chase 2m 5f

Listed Class
 
Horses aged 7-8-9-10 dominate 
None have won aged 11 or more (0-12)
ACCT OF PAYROLL the oldest horse
Younger horses are just 1-35
REALLY SUPER looks too young

Graded Handicaps since 2007
Horses aged 8 or less
With 12 or more chase runs
Absent more than 100 days
Have a 0-66 record in them
ROYAL VILLAGE fails this angle

High weights are vulnerable
Horses with 11st 8lbs or more are 0-32
SAN BENEDETO was more weight
He is also too exposed as well
Horses with over 20 Chase runs rarely win
MORE BUCKS has this problem as well

Several have long absences

June July August
Looked at all Graded Handicaps
And the horse winning with absences
None won with a significant weight
BAGS GROOVE 463 days off 11st 9lbs
May find that tough to overcome

Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 138 days
Have a 0-34 record in these races
The following horses all fail this
DRUMCLIFF
IMPERIAL PRESENCE
PINK EYED PEDRO
FIELD EXHIBITION
COPPER WEST
KNOCKGRAFFON

June July August
Graded Handicap Chases
Similar races show
Horses with under 7 chase runs
Absent more than 96 days
Have a 0-32 record

Disrupted season may change this
But horses short of chase runs
Could be unsafe with absences
LOUGH DERG SPIRIT has 5 chase runs
Not for me with a long absence
Why has he just changed stables
Henderson to Paul Nicholls strange
He has been bought for a reason
And I don't expect this race is that

FIDUX has 4 chase runs
May just be asking a lot in this field

Shortlist

POTTERMAN a 7yo first time
Tough ask first time in a big field

ROYAL VILLAGE - 2nd in this last year

ADRRASTOS - Chance but not thrown in

SOLOMAN GREY - Enough positives


Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SOLOMAN GREY 7/1

£2.00 Each Way ROYAL VILLAGE 12/1-14/1





Musselburgh 2.50

9/4 Yorkshire Pirlo, 11/4 Emirati Dirham
6/1 Tantastic, 7/1 Acklam Express, 8/1 International Girl
10/1 Denzil's Laughing, 14/1 Highland Dandy
16/1 Tapeten Toni, 50/1 Arfinn Rose, Colton.

5f Maiden race (2yo)

Several unraced horses
Could throw a spoke in the works
But on this track in a decent field
Experience could be an advantage

YORKSIRE PIRLO has ran once
Ran well and ebery chance here
But he was only a 25/1 chance there
He is only a late May foal as well

EMIRATI DIRHAM in contrast
Has put in 3 consistent runs now
Nothing between them on numbers
The market makes an assumption
YORKSIRE PIRLO will improve more
But I don't agree with that argument

There are a few
Who could improve and win
EMIRATI DIRHAM around 100/30
Looks the bet each way
With his extra experience

The only reason
He is not at the top of the message
I just don't trust the race enough
Seems to be drifting too much

Selecton

EMIRATI DIRHAM 7/2 - 4/1

Each Way





Musselburgh 3.25

5/2 Gowanbuster, 9/2 Boudica Bay, 5/1 Longroom
8/1 Excessable, 8/1  Royal Brave, 10/1 Bashiba
10/1 Gamesome, 14/1 Sound Of Iona, 14/1 Suwaan
20/1 Robot Boy, 25/1 Economic Crisis.

5f Handicap

GOWANBUSTER won 10 days ago
You can see the case for him here
But he is short at 7/4
He could be on the bounce
And Stall 11 of 11 may be fine
But it is not the positive some say

Decided to shortlist 4
Because of one thing in common
They have 2 or more recent races
May or may not be the best strategy
But over 5f here it make sense

Shortlist

Boudica Bay 8/1
Bashiba 10/1
Excessable 8/1
Royal Brave 10/1

EXCESSABLE is well treated
Will win when fit and conditions suit
Not sure if ready and won't want rain

BASHIBA wont want any rain

BOUDICA BAY a career high mark
But has just done a career best  run

ROYAL BRAVE has backclass
But is this 9yo ready to win yet

Can't decide
So staking all 4 horses

Selection

Option 1

£7 Win Bet BOUDICA BAY 6/1
£1 Win Bet ROYAL BRAVE 10/1
£1 Win Bet BASHIBA 10/1
£1 Win Bet EXCESSABLE 9/1

Option 2

BOUDICA BAY 6/1

Each Way

Option 2 is less stressful
That is the official selection





Newmarket 3.35

4/1 Kipps, 11/2 Enemy, 6/1 Global Storm 
9/1 HMS President 10/1 Grand Rock, 10/1 Lucander, 
10/1 Overwrite, 11/1 Zabeel Champion 12/1 Al Maysan
14/1 Morisco, 25/1 Man Of The Night 33/1 Iffraaz.

3yo Handicap (10f)

Class 2 race

July has 26 of these races
With 18 of these at Newmarket 

Two interesting angles
That the market leaders fail

Horses from 12f handicaps
Have a 0-36 record in this race
Have a 0-45 record in all other races
KIPPS fails this down two furlongs
He is the only horse that does this

ENEMY has 3 career starts
Least experienced in this race
Horses with 3 runs are 0-17
He could be at a disadvantage
IFFRAAZ could be as well
He is the only horse with a break
When all winners ran within 56 days

Similar races show
Horses with over 4 runs
With just 1 run in 3 months are 0-11
MORISCO fails this angle
May find topweight too much
GRAND ROCK has the same problem
Big weight and just 1 run this year
If you look at his sire Acclamation
His runners over 10f or more
On softer ground in Class 2 or higher
Only 1 horse by this sire won (1-29)
Doesn't have safe breeding stats
LUCANDER has just 1 run this season
I'd have liked more after 6 races
MAN OF THE KNIGHT looks unsafe
Following a heavy recent defeat
OVERWRITE has to prove stamina
His sire Zebedee has bred 10f winners
None in this class when softer than good

Shortlist

AL MAYSAN 16/1 
ZABEEL CHAMPION 10/1
HMS PRESIDENT 9/1
GLOBAL STORM 6/1

Looking at some sire stats
Horses over 10f or more
Class 2 or higher on soft
HMS PRESIDENT isn't safe
Sired by Excelebration
 
GLOBAL STORM is questionable
This sire runners
8f or more
Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-22 record
But he has just placed at Ascot
Under identical conditions to this
Give him the benefit of the doubt
At least to the level of saver

Selection

£4 Each Way ZABEEL CHAMPION 10/1

£2 Win Bet GLOBAL STORM 6/1




Kilbeggan 4.25

11/8 Robin Des Sivola, 6/4 My Midnight, 10/1 More Info
12/1 Lady Rocco, 16/1 Inshallah Queen, 20/1 Doing The Double
25/1 Heidi's Lady, 25/1 Little Lady Lu, 33/1 Courtinaction
25/1 Stowaway Lass, 40/1 Getaway Glenda, 50/1 Mashell
50/1 Raise The Tempo, 66/1 Rann Of Kutch.

Mares Maiden Hurdle

Should only involve a few

MY MIDNIGHT ran last Saturday
I fancied here she set the pace
Looked like winning that race
But she seemed to chuck it away
Some sort she looked a monkey

Taking her on
Not because of those fears
But when I look at similar races
Over any distance
Any time of year
Horses with over 7 runs
Running once in 12 weeks
Running within 9 days
Hae a 0-26 record in them
MY MIDNIGHT could bounce

LITTLE LADY LU
Has a similar profile as well
Not keen on her profile
Looks a small type as name suggests

ROBIN DES SIVOLA has ability
Can't know how fit or ready she is
But on paper the most likely winner

Selection

ROBIN DES SIVOLA 11/10

Win Bet





Musselburgh 4.35

9/4 Temper Trap, 7/2 Deeds Not Words
15/2 Milton Road, 17/2 Hanati, 9/1 Deconso
10/1 Naples Bay, 14/1 Robben Rainbow 16/1 Spotton
16/1 Let Right Be Done, 16/1 Torque Of The Town
20/1 Drew Breeze, 33/1 Destination Aim.

7f Classifield Stakes

Strange race

My angle argue
3 year olds are best
Based on small sample sizes

TEMPER TRAP is a 3yo
Not hard to see why he is favourite
But that profile bothers me

Only 4 runs
Only 4 days absence

Every Classified Stakes race
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses with under 5 runs
Running within 12 days
Have a 0-15 record

Small sample size admittedly
But none like him have won
I don't like inexperienced horses
With very short absences as a rule
He looks vulnerable to me

The market disagrees
They have him strong
And dislikes Deeds Not Words

DEEDS NOT WORDS is 9yo
Seems quite weak in the betting
But looks one of the fittest horses
He is 0-14 over this distance
He has never won beyond 6f
But his 7f numbers are fine
I'd be happy if he repeats them here
Many of his 7f defeats
Came in far better grade than this
When big prices and hard to like

HANATI is a 4yo filly
Just 1 poor run in 126 days now
MILTON ROAD exposed and absent
NAPLES BAY one bad run in months
ROBBEN RAINBOW has very low figures
TORQUE OF THE TOWN a long absence
DREW BREEZE has 1 bad run in 151 days
Has done nothing since his 2yo debut

DECONSO has a solid chance
Experience and runs this season
Whilst his age ground
Don't score well in these races
He looks a decent saver at prices

Selection

£4.50 Each Way DEEDS NOT WORDS 5/1 - 9/2

£1.00 Win Bet DECONSO 9/1-10/1





Kilbeggan 4.55

2/1 Khanmurjan, 4/1 Dakota Beat, 9/2 Politicise
11/2 Full Of Zandre,  14/1 Roscomroe, 16/1 Fierami
20/1 Orchard Grove 33/1 Arrycan, Kamikaze Kid
33/1 Wave Walker 40/1 Chosen Partner, 50/1 Kargs Post
66/1 Minella Away.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

KHANMURJAN is drifting
Perfectly understandably as well
Sired by Scat Daddy

A sire with no flat winners past 12f
A sire with a 0-17 hurdles record
KHANMURJAN will do well to stay

FULL OF ZANDRE is unraced
Respected because of Goron Elliot
But lacks positives without experience

July maiden hurdles
Run over 2m 1f or more
Ground softer than good
Unraced horses are 0-50
Some did win in June and August
But the general statistical impression
Don't trust them on softer ground
FULL OF ZANDRE fails this angle
ORCHARD GROVE also fails this
ROSCOMEROE also fails this 

FIERAMI may pop up
But just 1 poor bumper run last year

May be down to two horses

Selection

£8 Win Bet DAKOTA BEAT 2/1

£2 Win Bet POLITICISE 4/1

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